Detecting and Avoiding Cognitive Biases

2018 ◽  
pp. 236-258
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Clinical Population ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Healthy Population ◽  
Wrong Answer ◽  
The Right

Cognitive biases affect the decision-making process. These cognitive biases can help us to make a right or effective and quick decision, but many times they can produce wrong, illogical, or unfounded decisions or judgments. For this reason, this chapter will describe some programs, games, techniques, and therapies to detect and reduce them. These programs can be used both in the clinical population and healthy population. Therefore, the first step is being aware of our biases and the second step would be doing practical exercises to reduce and avoid them in our decision making. Practicing these exercises does not help us to always choose the right option, but they inhibit the wrong answer.

scholarly journals Decision Making in Committees: Transparency, Reputation, and Voting Rules

2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (1) ◽  
pp. 150-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilat Levy
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Career Concerns ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Voting Rules ◽  
The Public ◽  
Voting Rule ◽  
The Right

In this paper I analyze the effect of transparency on decision making in committees. I focus on committees whose members are motivated by career concerns. The main result is that when the decision-making process is secretive (when individual votes are not revealed to the public), committee members comply with preexisting biases. For example, if the voting rule demands a supermajority to accept a reform, individuals vote more often against reforms. Transparent committees are therefore more likely to accept reforms. I also find that coupled with the right voting rule, a secretive procedure may induce better decisions than a transparent one. (JEL D71, D72)

scholarly journals MULTI CRITERIA DECISION MAKING – RANKING AND PROMOTING EMPLOYEES

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1235-1241
Author(s):  
Marina Badarovska Mishevska
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Specific Situation ◽  
Mathematical Tool ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
The Right ◽  
Term Performance ◽  
Hierarchy Process

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a structured technique for organizing and analyzing complex decisions, based on mathematics and psychology. The method was developed by Thomas L. Saaty in the 1970s and has been extensively studied and refined since then. It has particular application in group decision making and is used around the world in a wide variety of decision situation. Rather than prescribing a "correct" decision, the AHP helps decision makers choose one that best suits their goal and their understanding of the problem. The technique provides a comprehensive and rational framework for structuring a decision problem, for representing and quantifying its elements, for relating those elements to overall goals, and for evaluating alternative solutions. Decision making is the choice of one alternative, from two or more, to which the course of the activity is directed and the problem is solved. The decision-making process is a rational attempt by the manager to achieve the goals of the organizational unit. The decision-making process can be thought of as a "brain and nervous system" of an enterprise. Decisions are made when a person wants things to be different in the future. Given each specific situation, making the right decisions is probably one of the most difficult challenges for managers. Managers in day-to-day work deliver programmed and unprogrammed decisions that solve simple or complex problems. Simple decisions have an impact on the short-term performance of the enterprise, and complex decisions have an impact on the long-term future and success of the enterprise. Users of the AHP first decompose their decision problem into a hierarchy of more easily comprehended sub-problems, each of which can be analyzed independently. Once the hierarchy is built, the decision makers systematically evaluate its various elements by comparing them to each other two at a time, with respect to their impact on an element above them in the hierarchy. The AHP converts these evaluations to numerical values that can be processed and compared over the entire range of the problem. In this article, it is explained the application of the AHP method in order to evaluate and promote employees in the enterprise "X" with several criteria. The obtained results enable the manager to evaluate the employees in an objective way and make an objective decision for their promotion. Its application for selecting the best among employees, in their assessment and promotion, allows managers to use a specific and mathematical tool to support the decision. This tool not only supports and qualifies decisions, it also allows managers to justify their choice, as well as to simulate possible results.

scholarly journals Factors Influencing Physicians' Clinical Decision-making at Upazila Health Complexes in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 125-133
Author(s):  
M. Aminul Islam ◽  
M. Abdul Awal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Networks ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Average Length ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Right ◽  
Consultation Session

ABSTRACT Introduction Selecting the most appropriate treatment for each patient is the key activity in patient-physician encounters and providing healthcare services. Achieving desirable clinical goals mostly depends on making the right decision at the right time in any healthcare setting. But little is known about physicians' clinical decision-making in the primary care setting in Bangladesh. Therefore, this study explored the factors that influence decisions about prescribing medications, ordering pathologic tests, counseling patients, average length of patient visits in a consultation session, and referral of patients to other physicians or hospitals by physicians at Upazila Health Complexes (UHCs) in the country. It also explored the structure of physicians' social networks and their association with the decision-making process. Methods This was a cross-sectional descriptive study that used primary data collected from 85 physicians. The respondents, who work at UHCs in the Rajshahi Division, were selected purposively. The collected data were analyzed with descriptive statistics including frequency, percentage, one-way analysis of variance, and linear regression to understand relationships among the variables. Results The results of the study reveal that multiple factors influence physicians' decisions about prescribing medications, ordering pathologic tests, length of visits, counseling patients, and referring patients to other physicians or hospitals at the UHCs. Most physicians prescribe drugs to their patients, keeping in mind their purchasing capacity. Risk of violence by patients' relatives and better management are the two key factors that influence physicians' referral decisions. The physicians' professional and personal social networks also play an influential role in the decision-making process. It was found that physicians dedicate on average 16.17 minutes to a patient in a consultation session. The length of visits is influenced by various factors including the distance between the physicians' residence and their workplace, their level of education, and the number of colleagues with whom they have regular contact and from whom they can seek help. Conclusion The results of the study have yielded some novel insights about the complexity of physicians' everyday tasks at the UHCs in Bangladesh. The results would be of interest to public health researchers and policy makers.

Cognitive Biases in Decision Making in Post-Bureaucratic Organizations

2017 ◽  
pp. 358-382
Author(s):  
Marie-Therese Claes ◽  
Thibault Jacquemin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Behavioral Economics ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Bureaucratic Organization ◽  
System 2 ◽  
System 1

In today's post-bureaucratic organization, where decision-making is decentralized, most managers are confronted with highly complex situations where time-constraint and availability of information makes the decision-making process essential. Studies show that a great amount of decisions are not taken after a rational decision-making process but rather rely on instinct, emotion or quickly processed information. After briefly describing the journey of thoughts from Rational Choice Theory to the emergence of Behavioral Economics, this chapter will elaborate on the mechanisms that are at play in decision-making in an attempt to understand the root causes of cognitive biases, using the theory of Kahneman's (2011) System 1 and System 2. It will discuss the linkage between the complexity of decision-making and post-bureaucratic organization.

scholarly journals Outsourcing energy retrofitting of hotel buildings: the decision-making process

2019 ◽  
Vol 266 ◽  
pp. 01016 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.F.F. Fasna ◽  
Sachie Gunatilake
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Existing Buildings ◽  
Energy Retrofit ◽  
Energy Efficiency Improvement ◽  
Adoption And Implementation ◽  
Energy Service ◽  
The Right

Poor energy performance of existing buildings worldwide has led to a crucial need to retrofit existing buildings to minimise energy consumption. Among the existing buildings, hotels use as much as 50% of their total expenses on energy and offer significant opportunities for energy efficiency improvement. Yet, comparatively the level of implementation of energy retrofits found to be low, which has attributed to, inter alia, the absence of a clearly defined process for ensuring the delivery of energy retrofit projects and lack of proactive guidance for project teams to ensure that they make the right decisions at the right time to achieve the desired outcomes. Since many energy retrofit projects in existing hotels are carried out with the involvement of an external contractor, or an Energy Service Company (ESCO), this study focuses on investigating the decision-making process in implementing energy retrofits when the project is outsourced to an external party. An in-depth case study is used to obtain insights into the critical decisions to be taken and key activities to be performed throughout the decision-making process. The findings are used to propose a step-by-step decision-making process comprising of three key phases: i.e., pre-retrofit, retrofit implementation and post-retrofit. It is hoped that the decision-making process developed in this study will serve as a roadmap for the effective adoption and implementation of energy retrofits in existing hotel buildings when an external contractor is involved.

Teaching Behavioral Ethics: Overcoming the Key Impediments to Ethical Behavior

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 497-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark S. Schwartz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Ethical Behavior ◽  
Ethical Decision ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Ethical Decision Making ◽  
Moral Judgments ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Moral Awareness ◽  
Behavioral Ethics

To better understand the ethical decision-making process and why individuals fail to act ethically, the aim of this article is to explore what are seen as the key impediments to ethical behavior and their pedagogical implications. Using the ethical decision-making process proposed by Rest as an overarching framework, the article examines the following barriers to ethical decision making: improper framing, which can preclude moral awareness; cognitive biases and psychological tendencies, which can hinder reaching proper moral judgments; and moral rationalizations, which can obstruct moral judgments from being translated into moral intentions or ethical behavior. Next, pedagogical exercises and tools for teaching behavioral ethics and ethical decision making are provided. The article concludes with its implications.

Reducing construction material cost by optimizing buy-in decision that accounts the flexibility of non-critical activities

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (8) ◽  
pp. 1092-1108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junna Meng ◽  
Jinghong Yan ◽  
Bin Xue ◽  
Jing Fu ◽  
Ning He
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Construction Material ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Material Cost ◽  
Starting Date ◽  
The Right ◽  
Start Dates

Purpose The goal of making buy-in decisions is to purchase materials at the right time with the required quantity and a minimum material cost (MC). To help achieve this goal, the purpose of this paper is to find a way of optimizing the buy-in decision with the consideration of flexible starting date of non-critical activities which makes daily demand adjustable. Design/methodology/approach First, a specific algorithm is developed to calculate a series of demand combinations modeling daily material demand for all the possible start dates. Second, future material prices are predicted by applying artificial neural network. Third, the demand combinations and predicted prices are used to generate an optimal buy-in decision. Findings By comparing MC in situation when non-critical activities always start at the earliest date to that in situations when the starting date is flexible, it is found that making material buy-in decision with the consideration of the flexibility usually helps reduce MC. Originality/value In this paper, a material buy-in decision-making method that accounts non-critical activities’ flexible starting date is proposed. A ternary cycle algorithm is developed to calculate demand combinations. The results that making material buy-in decision considering non-critical activities’ flexible starting date can reduce MC in most times indicates that contractors may consider non-critical activities’ flexibility a part of the buy-in decision-making process, so as to achieve an MC decrease and profit increase.

scholarly journals Acceptance of Selected Returning Birds and Mammals through the Eyes of Secondary School Students

Envigogika ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Andreska ◽  
Adéla Hartlová ◽  
Matouš Žmolil
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Young People ◽  
Secondary School ◽  
Secondary School Students ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Grammar School ◽  
Vertebrate Species ◽  
School Students ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Right

The presented study discusses the phenomenon of acceptance of returning higher vertebrate species to the Czech countryside, both from the perspective of grammar school students, who can further study the environmental protection and facilitate the return of some vertebrates, and students of secondary forestry schools, expected to engage in hunting care in the future. The attitude of students and young people, in general, is very important for the acceptance of the discussed species, as not only the politicians and publicists have the right to influence the general public, but rather the specialists educated in the field should participate in the decision-making process affecting the future of these animals. Overall, the work develops a hypothesis that people may have misconceptions about the return of some vertebrates as, rather than focusing on general facts, they are influenced by frequently hyped points, such as the fear and concern of aggrieved farmers, the overpopulating of some species and the infectious diseases that some animals may transmit. A questionnaire was designed and circulated to obtain the required data. For general simplification, only three options were presented in the questionnaire, either positive, negative, or neutral attitude as further structuring could compromise the clarity of the results.

scholarly journals Measuring individual differences in cognitive biases: The Cognitive Bias Inventory

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Berthet ◽  
Vincent de Gardelle
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individual Differences ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Temporal Stability ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Personality Factors ◽  
Wrong Answer ◽  
Outcome Bias

This article described the behavioral measurement of six classic cognitive biases (framing, availability, anchoring, overconfidence, hindsight/outcome bias, confirmation bias). Each measure showed a satisfactory level of reliability with regard both to internal consistency (mean Cronbach’s alpha = .77) and temporal stability (mean test-retest correlation = .71). Multivariate analysis supported the hypothesis that each cognitive bias captures specific decision-making processes as the six biases: (a) were virtually uncorrelated (mean correlation = .08), thus indicating no general decision-making competence factor, (b) were moderately correlated with other relevant constructs (the A-DMC components, cognitive ability, decision-making styles, and personality factors), (c) were more related to performance on a narrow domain of decision-making (the ability to overcome an intuitive wrong answer as measured by the CRT) than to the general success in real-life decision-making as measured by the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI). We introduce this set of behavioral tasks as the Cognitive Bias Inventory (CBI), a psychometric tool allowing for the reliable assessment of individual differences in six common, independent cognitive shortcuts. The CBI appears as a useful tool for future research on decision-making competence and how it relates to decision errors.

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