GSM(1) Model and its Application

2011 ◽  
Vol 225-226 ◽  
pp. 1360-1363
Author(s):  
Bin Zeng ◽  
Wu Jun Zeng

Although the GM(1,1) model has been successfully adopted in various fields and has been demonstrated promising prospect. But the form of the GM(1,1) model is single and obviously is not suitable for all data with different character. In order to increase the adaptive capability some different forms of the grey model is needed to be established. The paper adopts combinatorial form instead of const in the right part of the grey equation which we call it GSM(1) model. GSM(1) model is one variable index serials function which contains more information in the equation and can find more complicated law between data. On the condition of the original data multiplying the time interval the paper introduces difference quotient into the equation and establishes the unequal GSM(1) model. The examples prove GSM(1) is an effective form to improve the accuracy of the grey model. It provides a new way for the grey system application.

2011 ◽  
Vol 219-220 ◽  
pp. 428-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Zeng ◽  
Lin Fang Li

Although the grey forecasting model has been successfully adopted in various fields and has been demonstrated prospected aspect. The paper makes the original data multiply the time interval to get the accumulated sequence and uses the difference quotient method to establish the unequal interval GM(1,1) model. In order to reduce the error the paper adopts the weighted coefficient to revise the background values. By fitting and predicting the fatigue strength data it proves the method in the paper is effective which improves the accuracy of the model. It provides an effective way for the grey system application.


2011 ◽  
Vol 219-220 ◽  
pp. 432-435
Author(s):  
Bin Zeng ◽  
Wu Jun Zeng

Although the GM(1,1) model has been successfully adopted in various fields and has been demonstrated promising prospect. The paper adopts different form of grey model which is a supplement of the grey model and we call it GIM(1) model. On the analyzing the unequal GM(1,1) model the paper uses the difference quotient method to establish the unequal interval GIM(1) model. The examples prove the method in the paper is effective which improves the accuracy of the grey model. It provides an effective way for the grey system application.


2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
De-Yi Ma ◽  
Jian-Lin Li

For the small sample poor information, grey model is one of the good forecasting models. However, the simulation curve of original data is not consistent with that of the data by translations. In this paper, we present two novel grey system models, that is, generalized grey model and generalized discrete grey model. Compared with grey model, we prove that the simulation curve of original data is consistent with that of the new data by translations for the novel grey model, which was also demonstrated by the results of practical numerical examples.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 852-860
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Elsayed ◽  
◽  
Amr Soliman ◽  

Grey system theory is a mathematical technique used to predict data with known and unknown characteristics. The aim of our research is to forecast the future amount of technical reserves (outstanding claims reserve, loss ratio fluctuations reserve and unearned premiums reserve) up to 2029/2030. This study applies the Grey Model GM(1,1) using data obtained from the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA) over the period from 2005/2006 to 2015/2016 for non-life Egyptian insurance market. We found that the predicted amounts of outstanding claims reserve and loss ratio fluctuations reserve are highly significant than the unearned premiums reserve according to the value of Posterior Error Ratio (PER).


Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1321
Author(s):  
Constanza Saka-Herrán ◽  
Enric Jané-Salas ◽  
Antoni Mari-Roig ◽  
Albert Estrugo-Devesa ◽  
José López-López

The purpose of this review was to identify and describe the causes that influence the time-intervals in the pathway of diagnosis and treatment of oral cancer and to assess its impact on prognosis and survival. The review was structured according to the recommendations of the Aarhus statement, considering original data from individual studies and systematic reviews that reported outcomes related to the patient, diagnostic and pre-treatment intervals. The patient interval is the major contributor to the total time-interval. Unawareness of signs and/or symptoms, denial and lack of knowledge about oral cancer are the major contributors to the process of seeking medical attention. The diagnostic interval is influenced by tumor factors, delays in referral due to higher number of consultations and previous treatment with different medicines or dental procedures and by professional factors such as experience and lack of knowledge related to the disease and diagnostic procedures. Patients with advanced stage disease, primary treatment with radiotherapy, treatment at an academic facility and transitions in care are associated with prolonged pre-treatment intervals. An emerging body of evidence supports the impact of prolonged pre-treatment and treatment intervals with poorer survival from oral cancer.


2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mads Stehr ◽  
Anders Rønn-Nielsen

AbstractWe consider a space-time random field on ${{\mathbb{R}^d} \times {\mathbb{R}}}$ given as an integral of a kernel function with respect to a Lévy basis with a convolution equivalent Lévy measure. The field obeys causality in time and is thereby not continuous along the time axis. For a large class of such random fields we study the tail behaviour of certain functionals of the field. It turns out that the tail is asymptotically equivalent to the right tail of the underlying Lévy measure. Particular examples are the asymptotic probability that there is a time point and a rotation of a spatial object with fixed radius, in which the field exceeds the level x, and that there is a time interval and a rotation of a spatial object with fixed radius, in which the average of the field exceeds the level x.


2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Che-Jung Chang ◽  
Der-Chiang Li ◽  
Wen-Li Dai ◽  
Chien-Chih Chen

The wafer-level packaging process is an important technology used in semiconductor manufacturing, and how to effectively control this manufacturing system is thus an important issue for packaging firms. One way to aid in this process is to use a forecasting tool. However, the number of observations collected in the early stages of this process is usually too few to use with traditional forecasting techniques, and thus inaccurate results are obtained. One potential solution to this problem is the use of grey system theory, with its feature of small dataset modeling. This study thus uses the AGM(1,1) grey model to solve the problem of forecasting in the pilot run stage of the packaging process. The experimental results show that the grey approach is an appropriate and effective forecasting tool for use with small datasets and that it can be applied to improve the wafer-level packaging process.


Author(s):  
Anna Igorevna Filimonova

After the collapse of the USSR, fundamentally new phenomena appeared on the world arena, which became a watershed separating the bipolar order from the monopolar order associated with the establishment of the US global hegemony. Such phenomena were the events that are most often called «revolutions» in connection with the scale of the changes being made — «velvet revolutions» in the former Eastern Bloc, as well as revolutions of a different type, which ended in a change in the current regimes with such serious consequences that we are also talking about revolutionary transformations. These are technologies of «color revolutions» that allow organizing artificial and seemingly spontaneous mass protests leading to the removal of the legitimate government operating in the country and, in fact, to the seizure of power by a pro-American forces that ensure the Westernization of the country and the implementation of "neoliberal modernization", which essentially means the opening of national markets and the provision of natural resources for the undivided use of the Western factor (TNC and TNB). «Color revolutions» are inseparable from the strategic documents of the United States, in which, from the end of the 20th century, even before the collapse of the USSR, two main tendencies were clearly traced: the expansion of the right to unilateral use of force up to a preemptive strike, which is inextricably linked with the ideological justification of «missionary» American foreign policy, and the right to «assess» the internal state of affairs in countries and change it to a «democratic format», that is, «democratization». «Color revolutions», although they are not directly mentioned in strategic documents, but, being a «technical package of actions», straightforwardly follow from the right, assigned to itself by Washington, to unilateral use of force, which is gradually expanding from exclusively military actions to a comprehensive impact on an opponent country, i.e. essentially a hybrid war. Thus, the «color revolutions» clearly fit into the strategic concept of Washington on the use of force across the entire spectrum (conventional and unconventional war) under the pretext of «democratization». The article examines the period of registration and expansion of the US right to use force (which, according to the current international law, is a crime without a statute of limitations) in the time interval from the end of the twentieth century until 2014, filling semantic content about the need for «democratic transformations» of other states, with which the United States approached the key point of the events of the «Arab spring» and «color revolutions» in the post-Soviet space, the last and most ambitious of which was the «Euromaidan» in Ukraine in 2014. The article presents the material for the preparation of lectures and seminars in the framework of the training fields «International Relations» and «Political Science».


Author(s):  
Olha Chernukha ◽  
Yurii Bilushchak

On the basis of mathematical model of convectivediffusion in a three-layered filter it is formulated a contactinitial-boundary value problem for description of mass transferof pollution accompanying the sorption processes. It is proposedthe algorithm for establishing the estimation of values of soughtfunction (concentration of pollution) at the lower boundary of thefilter on the basis of the interpolation of experimental data. It istaken into account that the right end of the interpolation segmentis unknown. It is determined the exact solutions of contact-initialboundaryvalue problems of mass transfer with provision forboth diffusive and convective mechanisms of transfer as well assorption processes, which is based on integral transformationsover space variables in the contacting regions. Is it designedsoftware and established regularities of convective diffusionprocess in the three-layered filter.


Author(s):  
Torekhan ZHUMAGUL ◽  
Laura ASHIRBEKOVA

The purpose of the study is to prove ways to determine an effective marketing technologies for the country in attracting foreign direct investment and to determine an effective form of organization for promotion agency. The authors developed and used marketing methods and effective methods of digital marketing to attract foreign direct investment to the country. The article emphasizes the attraction of investment in order to form scientific interest in this topic, as well as contributes to the development of scientific literature. As attracting foreign investment is a matter of policy and the situation in the country, the developed proposals are useful for promotion agencies. As a result of the study, it was proved that the use of digital marketing is effective for attracting foreign direct investment and forming an image, it was also proved to choose the right form of organization for promotion agency.


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