Reliability Assessment of Power Generation and Transmission System Considering Wind Farm Based on Monte-Carlo Methods

2013 ◽  
Vol 724-725 ◽  
pp. 587-592
Author(s):  
Jian Hua Zhang ◽  
Xin Wei Wang ◽  
Cheng Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Error ◽  
Reliability Index ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Load Model ◽  
Wind Generator ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Loss Of Load Expectation

According to the weibull distribution of the wind speed, this research establishes the probability outrage model of the wind generator. Besides, this paper establishes a three-state Markov reliability model of the wind generator taking the drop running state into account. And the load model is built considering the randomness of the prediction error. This paper takes the improved IEEE RTS79 system for example, the reliability index of loss of load probability and loss of load expectation are calculated. Because the wind turbine derating state and load error are taken consideration, the proposed model is more accurate and the assessment results have high practical significance.

Mixed Chance Constrained Unit Commitment Model for Power System Containing Wind Farm

2014 ◽  
Vol 644-650 ◽  
pp. 3850-3853
Author(s):  
Si Qing Sheng ◽  
Xiao Xia Sun
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Unit Commitment ◽  
Fuzzy Variable ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Chance Constrained Programming ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Constrained Programming

This paper presents a new unit commitment model to solve the uncertainty of wind and load. The chance constrained programming is introduced in this paper. The uncertainty of wind and load is expressed as their prediction error. Considering their different characteristic, wind prediction error is indicated as a fuzzy variable, while load prediction error is represented as random variable. Different confidences reflect the different satisfaction of the constraints. Finally, example analysis shows that the proposed model is feasible and effectiveness.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE WIND SPEED PREDICTION ERROR ON THE SIZE OF THE STORAGE CONTROLLED OPERATION ZONE IN THE SYSTEM WITH THE WIND GENERATOR

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (57) ◽  
pp. 35-41
Author(s):  
K.S. Klen ◽  
◽  
M.K. Yaremenko ◽  
V.Ya. Zhuykov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Average Energy ◽  
Interpolation Formula ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Wind Generator ◽  
Prediction Horizon ◽  
Speed Prediction ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Predictor Corrector

The article analyzes the influence of wind speed prediction error on the size of the controlled operation zone of the storage. The equation for calculating the power at the output of the wind generator according to the known values of wind speed is given. It is shown that when the wind speed prediction error reaches a value of 20%, the controlled operation zone of the storage disappears. The necessity of comparing prediction methods with different data discreteness to ensure the minimum possible prediction error and determining the influence of data discreteness on the error is substantiated. The equations of the "predictor-corrector" scheme for the Adams, Heming, and Milne methods are given. Newton's second interpolation formula for interpolation/extrapolation is given at the end of the data table. The average relative error of MARE was used to assess the accuracy of the prediction. It is shown that the prediction error is smaller when using data with less discreteness. It is shown that when using the Adams method with a prediction horizon of up to 30 min, within ± 34% of the average energy value, the drive can be controlled or discharged in a controlled manner. References 13, figures 2, tables 3.

scholarly journals Wind Farm Cable Connection Layout Optimization with Several Substations

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 3615
Author(s):  
Adelaide Cerveira ◽  
Eduardo J. Solteiro Pires ◽  
José Baptista
Keyword(s):  
Energy Production ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Green Energy ◽  
Fossil Energy ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Cable Connection

Green energy has become a media issue due to climate changes, and consequently, the population has become more aware of pollution. Wind farms are an essential energy production alternative to fossil energy. The incentive to produce wind energy was a government policy some decades ago to decrease carbon emissions. In recent decades, wind farms were formed by a substation and a couple of turbines. Nowadays, wind farms are designed with hundreds of turbines requiring more than one substation. This paper formulates an integer linear programming model to design wind farms’ cable layout with several turbines. The proposed model obtains the optimal solution considering different cable types, infrastructure costs, and energy losses. An additional constraint was considered to limit the number of cables that cross a walkway, i.e., the number of connections between a set of wind turbines and the remaining wind farm. Furthermore, considering a discrete set of possible turbine locations, the model allows identifying those that should be present in the optimal solution, thereby addressing the optimal location of the substation(s) in the wind farm. The paper illustrates solutions and the associated costs of two wind farms, with up to 102 turbines and three substations in the optimal solution, selected among sixteen possible places. The optimal solutions are obtained in a short time.

Reliability Modeling of Wind Farm Considering the Outages of Connection Cables

2013 ◽  
Vol 291-294 ◽  
pp. 461-466
Author(s):  
Guo Bing Qiu ◽  
Wen Xia Liu ◽  
Jian Hua Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Power Output ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Sequential Monte Carlo ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Wake Effect ◽  
Reliability Modeling ◽  
Wake Model

Considering the randomness of wind speed and wind direction, the partial wake effect between wind turbines (WTs) in complex terrain was analyzed and a multiple wake model in complex terrain was established. Taking the power output characteristic of WT into consideration, a wind farm reliability model which considered the outages of connection cables was presented. The model is implemented in MATLAB using sequential Monte Carlo simulation and the results show that this model corrects the power output of wind farm, while improving the accuracy of wind farm reliability model.

scholarly journals Duration Perception Versus Perception Duration: A Proposed Model for the Consciously Experienced Moment

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lachlan Kent
Keyword(s):  
Information Theory ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Intermediate Stage ◽  
The Self ◽  
Global Integration ◽  
Candidate Model ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Concrete Objects ◽  
Integrated Information Theory

Duration perception is not the same as perception duration. Time is an object of perception in its own right and is qualitatively different to exteroceptive or interoceptive perception of concrete objects or sensations originating within the self. In reviewing evidence for and against the experienced moment, White (2017, Psychol. Bull., 143, 735–756) proposed a model of global integration of information dense envelopes of integration. This is a valuable addition to the literature because it supposes that, like Tononi’s (2004, BMC Neurosci., 5, 42) Integrated Information Theory, consciousness is an integral step above perception of objects or the self. Consciousness includes the perception of abstract contents such as time, space, and magnitude, as well as post-perceptual contents drawn from memory. The present review takes this logic a step further and sketches a potential neurobiological pathway through the salience, default mode, and central executive networks that culminates in a candidate model of how duration perception and consciousness arises. Global integration is viewed as a process of Bayesian Prediction Error Minimisation according to a model put forward by Hohwy, Paton and Palmer (2016, Phenomenol. Cogn. Sci., 15, 315–335) called ‘distrusting the present’. The proposed model also expresses global integration as an intermediate stage between perception and memory that spans an approximate one second duration, an analogue of Wittmann’s (2011, Front. Integr. Neurosci., 5, 66) experienced moment.

scholarly journals PROBABILISTIC DURABILITY PREDICTION OF EXISTING BUILDING ELEMENTS

2004 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romualdas Kliukas ◽  
Antanas Kudzys
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Index ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Reliability Prediction ◽  
Existing Building ◽  
Reliability Indices ◽  
Latent Defects ◽  
Durability Prediction ◽  
Building Elements

An effect of service and proof actions on probabilistic reliability (serviceability, safety and durability) of building elements (components and members) of existing enclosure and bearing structures is under consideration. Time‐dependent models for reliability assessment of elements under sustained variable and multicycle actions are presented. Revised reliability indices of existing elements exposed to service permanent and variable actions are discussed. It is recommended to assess the long‐term reliability index of elements taking into account the effect of latent defects. Truncated probability distributions of physical‐mechanical resistances of elements and an effect of their latent defects on reliability index assessment are taken into account. Methodological peculiarities of durability prediction of elements and avoiding unfounded premature repairs or replacements are analysed. The applied illustration of the presented method on the probabilistic reliability prediction of deteriorating concrete covers is demonstrated.

Non-Probabilistic Structural Reliability Model Based on Ellipsoidal-Bound Model with Restricted Expansion

2011 ◽  
Vol 230-232 ◽  
pp. 920-924
Author(s):  
Kun Feng Li ◽  
Zi Chun Yang ◽  
Gui Feng Liu
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Index ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Insufficient Data ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Gap Model ◽  
New Model ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Information Gap ◽  
Reliability Method

When insufficient data are available, probabilistic reliability method is invalid, but the non-probabilistic reliability method based on I-G (information-gap) model is a valid alternative. The most common I-G model, ellipsoidal-bound model, has been updated in this paper by acquiring information about span restrictions of uncertainty quantities and a corresponding non-probabilistic reliability index was proposed. The method for computing the reliability index was also given. The new model can reveal the influence of the span restriction of uncertainty quantities on structural reliability.

Optimization Design of Rolling Bearing Based on Reliability Assessment

2012 ◽  
Vol 215-216 ◽  
pp. 115-118
Author(s):  
Jia Hong Zheng ◽  
Yu Chun Liu ◽  
Min Li
Keyword(s):  
Optimization Design ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Rolling Bearing ◽  
Transmission System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Rolling Bearings ◽  
Transmission Systems ◽  
Modern Times ◽  
Wind Generator ◽  
Time Optimization

Today, transmission systems are playing important roles in engineering. For all of the components in them, status of the rolling bearing has been rising. In modern times, people are making great efforts on the optimization of transmission system. At the same time, optimization design of all the internal components was also important. For all the techniques, research to the rolling bearings has become increasingly mature. In this paper, the rolling bearing in growth of box of the 2 MW wind generator was took as the research object. The load coefficient of rolling bearing was been calculated, then the reliability assessment model of the rolling bearing was been made. On the basis of which, the optimization design on the reliability was done.

Research on Substation Reliability Based on the Minimum Cut Set Algorithm

2013 ◽  
Vol 718-720 ◽  
pp. 1268-1273
Author(s):  
Kai Wang ◽  
Xu Ping ◽  
Liu Yan ◽  
Li Geng
Keyword(s):  
Power Supply ◽  
Reliability Index ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Minimum Cut ◽  
Regional Power ◽  
Power Station ◽  
Cut Set ◽  
Electrical Wiring

Substation is the key component of regional power supply. The assessment of substation reliability index should be done before the assessment of regional power station reliability. Taking regional power station for example, this paper uses algorithm of minimum cutest which is based on spaces of electrical parts, gives analysis to the reliability of power station main electrical wiring. This method, being verified to provide an effective reliability assessment for power station main electrical wiring, lays a foundation for assessment of regional power station reliability.

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