scholarly journals An Analog Method for Seasonal Forecasting in Northern High Latitudes

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (03) ◽  
pp. 469-485
Author(s):  
John E. Walsh ◽  
Brian Brettschneider ◽  
Nathan P. Kettle ◽  
Richard L. Thoman
1967 ◽  
Vol 31 ◽  
pp. 265-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Blaauw ◽  
I. Fejes ◽  
C. R. Tolbert ◽  
A. N. M. Hulsbosch ◽  
E. Raimond

Earlier investigations have shown that there is a preponderance of negative velocities in the hydrogen gas at high latitudes, and that in certain areas very little low-velocity gas occurs. In the region 100° <l< 250°, + 40° <b< + 85°, there appears to be a disturbance, with velocities between - 30 and - 80 km/sec. This ‘streaming’ involves about 3000 (r/100)2solar masses (rin pc). In the same region there is a low surface density at low velocities (|V| < 30 km/sec). About 40% of the gas in the disturbance is in the form of separate concentrations superimposed on a relatively smooth background. The number of these concentrations as a function of velocity remains constant from - 30 to - 60 km/sec but drops rapidly at higher negative velocities. The velocity dispersion in the concentrations varies little about 6·2 km/sec. Concentrations at positive velocities are much less abundant.


2000 ◽  
Vol 179 ◽  
pp. 201-204
Author(s):  
Vojtech Rušin ◽  
Milan Minarovjech ◽  
Milan Rybanský

AbstractLong-term cyclic variations in the distribution of prominences and intensities of green (530.3 nm) and red (637.4 nm) coronal emission lines over solar cycles 18–23 are presented. Polar prominence branches will reach the poles at different epochs in cycle 23: the north branch at the beginning in 2002 and the south branch a year later (2003), respectively. The local maxima of intensities in the green line show both poleward- and equatorward-migrating branches. The poleward branches will reach the poles around cycle maxima like prominences, while the equatorward branches show a duration of 18 years and will end in cycle minima (2007). The red corona shows mostly equatorward branches. The possibility that these branches begin to develop at high latitudes in the preceding cycles cannot be excluded.


Author(s):  
Andrew Clarke

A diurnal (circadian) rhythm in body temperature is a widespread, and possibly universal, feature of endotherms. Some mammals and birds down-regulate their metabolic rate significantly by night, allowing their body temperature to drop sufficiently that they become inactive and enter torpor. Both the minimum temperature achieved and the duration of torpor are highly variable. Daily torpor is principally a response to reduced energy intake, and a drop in ambient temperature. Hibernation is essentially an extreme form of torpor. Small mammals hibernating at high latitudes have regular arousals during which they urinate and may feed. Bears hibernate with relatively high body temperature, and do not undergo arousal. Only one bird, the poorwill, is known to hibernate. Rewarming during arousal may be fuelled exclusively by metabolism (for example in small mammals in the Arctic) or with significant energy input from basking (for example in subtropical arid areas). The capacity for torpor appears to be an ancestral character in both mammals and birds, possibly related to the origin of endothermy in small species subject to marked diurnal and/or seasonal variation in body temperature. Both deep hibernation and strict endothermy are probably derived characteristics.


2021 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacqueline Bertlich ◽  
Nikolaus Gussone ◽  
Jasper Berndt ◽  
Heinrich F. Arlinghaus ◽  
Gerhard S. Dieckmann

AbstractThis study presents culture experiments of the cold water species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral) and provides new insights into the incorporation of elements in foraminiferal calcite of common and newly established proxies for paleoenvironmental applications (shell Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca and Na/Ca). Specimens were collected from sea ice during the austral winter in the Antarctic Weddell Sea and subsequently cultured at different salinities and a constant temperature. Incorporation of the fluorescent dye calcein showed new chamber formation in the culture at salinities of 30, 31, and 69. Cultured foraminifers at salinities of 46 to 83 only revealed chamber wall thickening, indicated by the fluorescence of the whole shell. Signs of reproduction and the associated gametogenic calcite were not observed in any of the culture experiments. Trace element analyses were performed using an electron microprobe, which revealed increased shell Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, and Na/Ca values at higher salinities, with Mg/Ca showing the lowest sensitivity to salinity changes. This study enhances the knowledge about unusually high element concentrations in foraminifera shells from high latitudes. Neogloboquadrina pachyderma appears to be able to calcify in the Antarctic sea ice within brine channels, which have low temperatures and exceptionally high salinities due to ongoing sea ice formation.


Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 625
Author(s):  
Ansgar Schanz ◽  
Klemens Hocke ◽  
Niklaus Kämpfer ◽  
Simon Chabrillat ◽  
Antje Inness ◽  
...  

In this study, we compare the diurnal variation in stratospheric ozone of the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) reanalysis, ECMWF Reanalysis Interim (ERA-Interim), and the free-running WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model). The diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone results from photochemical and dynamical processes depending on altitude, latitude, and season. MACC reanalysis and WACCM use similar chemistry modules and calculate a similar diurnal cycle in ozone when it is caused by a photochemical variation. The results of the two model systems are confirmed by observations of the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) experiment and three selected sites of the Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (tropics), Bern, Switzerland (midlatitudes), and Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard (high latitudes). On the other hand, the ozone product of ERA-Interim shows considerably less diurnal variation due to photochemical variations. The global maxima of diurnal variation occur at high latitudes in summer, e.g., near the Arctic NDACC site at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. The local OZORAM radiometer observes this effect in good agreement with MACC reanalysis and WACCM. The sensed diurnal variation at Ny-Ålesund is up to 8% (0.4 ppmv) due to photochemical variations in summer and negligible during the dynamically dominated winter. However, when dynamics play a major role for the diurnal ozone variation as in the lower stratosphere (100–20 hPa), the reanalysis models ERA-Interim and MACC which assimilate data from radiosondes and satellites outperform the free-running WACCM. Such a domain is the Antarctic polar winter where a surprising novel feature of diurnal variation is indicated by MACC reanalysis and ERA-Interim at the edge of the polar vortex. This effect accounts for up to 8% (0.4 ppmv) in both model systems. In summary, MACC reanalysis provides a global description of the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone caused by dynamics and photochemical variations. This is of high interest for ozone trend analysis and other research which is based on merged satellite data or measurements at different local time.


Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 363
Author(s):  
George Duffy ◽  
Fraser King ◽  
Ralf Bennartz ◽  
Christopher G. Fletcher

CloudSat is often the only measurement of snowfall rate available at high latitudes, making it a valuable tool for understanding snow climatology. The capability of CloudSat to provide information on seasonal and subseasonal time scales, however, has yet to be explored. In this study, we use subsampled reanalysis estimates to predict the uncertainties of CloudSat snow water equivalent (SWE) accumulation measurements at various space and time resolutions. An idealized/simulated subsampling model predicts that CloudSat may provide seasonal SWE estimates with median percent errors below 50% at spatial scales as small as 2° × 2°. By converting these predictions to percent differences, we can evaluate CloudSat snowfall accumulations against a blend of gridded SWE measurements during frozen time periods. Our predictions are in good agreement with results. The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the percent differences between the two measurements all match predicted values within eight percentage points. We interpret these results to suggest that CloudSat snowfall estimates are in sufficient agreement with other, thoroughly vetted, gridded SWE products. This implies that CloudSat may provide useful estimates of snow accumulation over remote regions within seasonal time scales.


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