Risk Assessment Model for Human Infection with the Cestode Taenia saginata

1997 ◽  
Vol 60 (9) ◽  
pp. 1110-1119 ◽  
Author(s):  
PETER B. van der LOGT ◽  
STEVE C. HATHAWAY ◽  
DAVID J. VOSE
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Domestic Market ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Taenia Saginata ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Human Infections

A probabilistic risk assessment model was developed to estimate the risk to human health of Taenia saginata in the New Zealand cattle population. A standardized monitoring program was established to determine the number of suspect cysts detected during postmortem inspection and the scenario set was applied to risks in both the domestic and export markets. The mean number of human infections per year as a result of consumption in the export and the domestic market was estimated as 0.50 and 1.10 respectively. Estimations for expression of specific clinical symptoms were even less. In a scenario set where postmortem inspection procedures for T. saginata were not applied, the mean number of human infections per year was estimated to increase from 0.50 to 0.61 in the export market and from 1.10 to 1.30 in the domestic market. Given that T. saginata infection in humans results in mild and readily treatable symptoms, these risk estimates are extremely low on any scale of food-borne disease and bring the value of specific postmortem inspection procedures for T. saginata in the New Zealand situation into question. The Monte Carlo model developed to calculate these probabilities is presented here in detail to illustrate the potential of Monte Carlo methods for modeling risk.

Possible Increase of Human Taenia saginata Infections through Import of Beef to Norway from a High Prevalence Area

1999 ◽  
Vol 62 (11) ◽  
pp. 1314-1319 ◽  
Author(s):  
EYSTEIN SKJERVE
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Heat Treatment ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Taenia Saginata ◽  
The Public ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Epidemiological Pattern ◽  
Human Infections

A Monte Carlo risk assessment model was developed to estimate the public health risk of importing prime cuts of beef infested with Taenia saginata to Norway from an endemic area in southern Africa. The model predicted that 21 (lower 5% = 1, upper 95% = 56) viable cysts would be present in domestic prime cuts during 1996 and 1997, with 8 (0 to 21) of them being ingested without sufficient heat treatment to kill the parasite. These cysts were expected to cause 2 (0 to 7) human infections. Corresponding figures for the imported prime cuts were 1,260 (99 to 2,900) viable cysts, 462 (37 to 1,065) ingested without sufficient heat treatment, causing 132 (8 to 361) human infections. The model was sensitive to the uncertainties related to the estimates of probabilities of cysts being viable and the probability of their causing infection in humans. The public health impact from consuming imported beef is not large, but the model illustrates how imported cuts may change the epidemiological pattern of a disease even when the import constitutes only 3% of the prime cuts consumed.

scholarly journals The Application of Gail Model to Predict the Risk of Developing Breast Cancer among Jordanian Women

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Hikmat Abdel-Razeq ◽  
Luna Zaru ◽  
Ahmed Badheeb ◽  
Shadi Hijjawi
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Breast Cancer Patients ◽  
Gail Model ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Mean

Background and Objectives. Breast cancer has been the most common cancer affecting women in Jordan. In the process of implementing breast cancer prevention and early detection programs, individualized risk assessment can add to the cost-effectiveness of such interventions. Gail model is a widely used tool to stratify patients into different risk categories. However, concerns about its applicability across different ethnic groups do exist. In this study, we report our experience with the application of a modified version of this model among Jordanian women. Methods. The Gail risk assessment model (RAM) was modified and used to calculate the 5-year and lifetime risk for breast cancer. Patients with known breast cancer were used to test this model. Medical records and hospital database were utilized to collect information on known risk factors. The mean calculated risk score for women tested was 0.65. This number, which corresponds to the Gail original score of 1.66, was used as a cutoff point to categorize patients as high risk. Results. A total of 1786 breast cancer patients with a mean age of 50 (range: 19–93) years were included. The modified version of the Gail RAM was applied on 1213 patients aged 35–59.9 years. The mean estimated risk for developing invasive breast cancer over the following five years was 0.54 (95% CI: 0.52, 0.56), and the lifetime risk was 3.42 (95% CI: 3.30, 3.53). Only 210 (17.3%) women had a risk score >0.65 and thus categorized as high risk. First-degree family history of breast cancer was identified among 120 (57.1%) patients in this high-risk group. Conclusions. Among a group of patients with an established diagnosis of breast cancer, a modified Gail risk assessment model would have been able to stratify only 17% into the high-risk category. The family history of breast cancer contributed the most to the risk score.

A Monte Carlo Risk Assessment Model for Acrylamide Formation in French Fries

Risk Analysis ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 29 (10) ◽  
pp. 1410-1426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enda Cummins ◽  
Francis Butler ◽  
Ronan Gormley ◽  
Nigel Brunton
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
French Fries ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Acrylamide Formation

Risk assessment model for venous thromboembolism in hospitalized surgical and non-surgical patients in the 4th Hungarian Antithrombotic Guidelines entitled “Diminution and Treatment of Venous Thromboembolism”

2010 ◽  
Vol 151 (34) ◽  
pp. 1365-1374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianna Dávid ◽  
Hajna Losonczy ◽  
Miklós Udvardy ◽  
Zoltán Boda ◽  
György Blaskó ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Surgical Patients ◽  
Risk Assessment Model

A kórházban kezelt sebészeti és belgyógyászati betegekben jelentős a vénásthromboembolia-rizikó. Profilaxis nélkül, a műtét típusától függően, a sebészeti beavatkozások kapcsán a betegek 15–60%-ában alakul ki mélyvénás trombózis vagy tüdőembólia, és az utóbbi ma is vezető kórházi halálok. Bár a vénás thromboemboliát leggyakrabban a közelmúltban végzett műtéttel vagy traumával hozzák kapcsolatba, a szimptómás thromboemboliás események 50–70%-a és a fatális tüdőembóliák 70–80%-a nem a sebészeti betegekben alakul ki. Nemzetközi és hazai felmérések alapján a nagy kockázattal rendelkező sebészeti betegek többsége megkapja a szükséges trombózisprofilaxist. Azonban profilaxis nélkül marad a rizikóval rendelkező belgyógyászati betegek jelentős része, a konszenzuson alapuló nemzetközi és hazai irányelvi ajánlások ellenére. A belgyógyászati betegek körében növelni kell a profilaxisban részesülők arányát és el kell érni, hogy trombózisrizikó esetén a betegek megkapják a hatásos megelőzést. A beteg trombóziskockázatának felmérése fontos eszköze a vénás thromboembolia által veszélyeztetett betegek felderítésének, megkönnyíti a döntést a profilaxis elrendeléséről és javítja az irányelvi ajánlások betartását. A trombózisveszély megállapításakor, ha nem ellenjavallt, profilaxist kell alkalmazni. „A thromboemboliák kockázatának csökkentése és kezelése” című, 4. magyar antithromboticus irányelv felhívja a figyelmet a vénástrombózis-rizikó felmérésének szükségességére, és elsőként tartalmazza a kórházban fekvő belgyógyászati és sebészeti betegek kockázati kérdőívét. Ismertetjük a kockázatbecslő kérdőíveket és áttekintjük a kérdőívekben szereplő rizikófaktorokra vonatkozó bizonyítékokon alapuló adatokat.

Signature Analysis: Statistical Models and Their Application to FA

1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.K. Lakshminarayan ◽  
S. Pabbisetty ◽  
O. Adams ◽  
F. Pires ◽  
M. Thomas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Failure Analysis ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Essential Elements ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Signature Analysis ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Sample Sizes ◽  
Reliability Engineering ◽  
Semiconductor Chips

Abstract This paper deals with the basic concepts of Signature Analysis and the application of statistical models for its implementation. It develops a scheme for computing sample sizes when the failures are random. It also introduces statistical models that comprehend correlations among failures that fail due to the same failure mechanism. The idea of correlation is important because semiconductor chips are processed in batches. Also any risk assessment model should comprehend correlations over time. The statistical models developed will provide the required sample sizes for the Failure Analysis lab to state "We are A% confident that B% of future parts will fail due to the same signature." The paper provides tables and graphs for the evaluation of such a risk assessment. The implementation of Signature Analysis will achieve the dual objective of improved customer satisfaction and reduced cycle time. This paper will also highlight it's applicability as well as the essential elements that need to be in place for it to be effective. Different examples have been illustrated of how the concept is being used by Failure Analysis Operations (FA) and Customer Quality and Reliability Engineering groups.

A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for the outbreak of grass carp hemorrhage

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 521-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song YANG ◽  
Shuqin WU ◽  
Ningqiu LI ◽  
Cunbin SHI ◽  
Guocheng DENG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Grass Carp ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Model
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