scholarly journals The Application of Gail Model to Predict the Risk of Developing Breast Cancer among Jordanian Women

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Hikmat Abdel-Razeq ◽  
Luna Zaru ◽  
Ahmed Badheeb ◽  
Shadi Hijjawi
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Breast Cancer Patients ◽  
Gail Model ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Mean

Background and Objectives. Breast cancer has been the most common cancer affecting women in Jordan. In the process of implementing breast cancer prevention and early detection programs, individualized risk assessment can add to the cost-effectiveness of such interventions. Gail model is a widely used tool to stratify patients into different risk categories. However, concerns about its applicability across different ethnic groups do exist. In this study, we report our experience with the application of a modified version of this model among Jordanian women. Methods. The Gail risk assessment model (RAM) was modified and used to calculate the 5-year and lifetime risk for breast cancer. Patients with known breast cancer were used to test this model. Medical records and hospital database were utilized to collect information on known risk factors. The mean calculated risk score for women tested was 0.65. This number, which corresponds to the Gail original score of 1.66, was used as a cutoff point to categorize patients as high risk. Results. A total of 1786 breast cancer patients with a mean age of 50 (range: 19–93) years were included. The modified version of the Gail RAM was applied on 1213 patients aged 35–59.9 years. The mean estimated risk for developing invasive breast cancer over the following five years was 0.54 (95% CI: 0.52, 0.56), and the lifetime risk was 3.42 (95% CI: 3.30, 3.53). Only 210 (17.3%) women had a risk score >0.65 and thus categorized as high risk. First-degree family history of breast cancer was identified among 120 (57.1%) patients in this high-risk group. Conclusions. Among a group of patients with an established diagnosis of breast cancer, a modified Gail risk assessment model would have been able to stratify only 17% into the high-risk category. The family history of breast cancer contributed the most to the risk score.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the BOADICEA risk assessment model in women with a family history of breast cancer

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Kinhult Ståhlbom ◽  
Hemming Johansson ◽  
Annelie Liljegren ◽  
Anna von Wachenfeldt ◽  
Brita Arver
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Family History ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
History Of

scholarly journals A Thrombotic Biomarker-Based Risk Assessment Scoring Model for Disease Recurrence in Breast Cancer Patient Candidate to Systemic Chemotherapy

Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 2426-2426
Author(s):  
Anna Falanga ◽  
Cinzia Giaccherini ◽  
Marina Marchetti ◽  
Giovanna Masci ◽  
Cristina Verzeroli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Disease Recurrence ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Breast Cancer Patients ◽  
Scoring Model ◽  
D Dimer

Background. Hypercoagulability, a common finding in cancer patients, is associated with an increased risk of both thrombosis and tumor development. The HYPERCAN study (ClinicalTrials.gov, ID# NCT02622815) is an ongoing Italian prospective, multicenter, observational study, evaluating the predictive value of thrombotic markers for early cancer diagnosis in healthy subjects and for cancer prognosis and venous thromboembolism in patients with newly diagnosed malignant disease. In this analysis of a large cohort of patients with breast cancer, we evaluated whether pre-chemotherapy thrombotic biomarker levels: 1. are associated with breast cancer-specific clinicopathological features; and 2. may predict for disease recurrence (DR). Patients and Methods. D-dimer, fibrinogen, prothrombin fragment 1+2 (F1+2), and FVIIa/antithrombin complex (FVIIa/AT) levels were measured in 701 early-stage resected breast cancer patients, candidate to adjuvant chemotherapy and prospectively enrolled in the HYPERCAN study. Significant prognostic parameters for DR were identified by Cox-regression multivariate analysis and used for generating a risk assessment model. The study protocol is approved by the local Ethics Committee. Informed written consent is obtained from all study subjects. Results. Increased pre-chemotherapy D-dimer, fibrinogen, and F1+2 levels were significantly associated with a large tumor size (≥ 5 cm) and lymph node positivity. After 3.4 years follow-up, 71 patients experienced a DR. Comparison of the levels of the hypercoagulation variables of patients who experienced relapse versus patients who remained disease-free during follow-up showed that there were no statistical differences for all, but F1+2 biomarker levels, which were significantly higher in the group patients who relapsed [223 (115-618) vs 197 (115-385) pmol/l; p=0.024]. In addition, correlation analyses showed that pre-chemotherapy levels of fibrinogen were significantly and inversely associated with time to relapse (β = -0.317; p=0.012). Cox-multivariate analysis identified F1+2 (HR 2; 95% CI, 1.1-3.6; p=0.019), tumor size ≥ 5cm (HR 2.6; 95% CI, 1.4-4.6; p=0.001), and Luminal B HER2-neg or TN molecular subtypes (HR 3.9; 95% CI, 2.1-7.5; p<0.001) as independent risk factors for DR. Based on these variables, we generated a risk assessment model that significantly identified patients at low- versus high-risk of DR (cumulative incidence: 6.2 vs 20.7%; HR=3.5; p<0.001). Conclusion. Our prospective laboratory data from the HYPERCAN breast cancer subjects were essential for generating a scoring model for DR risk assessment. Future investigations addressing the role of plasma thrombotic biomarkers in breast cancer patients' management are warranted and may provide the rationale for development of new therapeutic strategies. Project funded by AIRC "5xMILLE Multiunit extension program" n. 12237 grant from the "Italian Association for Cancer Research (AIRC)". Disclosures Santoro: Bayer: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Amgen: Speakers Bureau; BMS: Consultancy; Sandoz: Speakers Bureau; Eisai: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Novartis: Speakers Bureau; Lilly: Speakers Bureau; Celgene: Speakers Bureau; Servier: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Gilead: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; AstraZeneca: Speakers Bureau; Roche: Speakers Bureau; Abb-Vie: Speakers Bureau; Pfizer: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Arqule: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; MSD: Speakers Bureau; Takeda: Speakers Bureau; BMS: Speakers Bureau.

scholarly journals An Alternative Risk Assessment Model of Urban Waterlogging: A Case Study of Ningbo City

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 826
Author(s):  
Meiling Zhou ◽  
Xiuli Feng ◽  
Kaikai Liu ◽  
Chi Zhang ◽  
Lijian Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
The North ◽  
Coastal Cities ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
The City

Influenced by climate change, extreme weather events occur frequently, and bring huge impacts to urban areas, including urban waterlogging. Conducting risk assessments of urban waterlogging is a critical step to diagnose problems, improve infrastructure and achieve sustainable development facing extreme weathers. This study takes Ningbo, a typical coastal city in the Yangtze River Delta, as an example to conduct a risk assessment of urban waterlogging with high-resolution remote sensing images and high-precision digital elevation models to further analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlogging risk. Results indicate that waterlogging risk in the city proper of Ningbo is mainly low risk, accounting for 36.9%. The higher-risk and medium-risk areas have the same proportions, accounting for 18.7%. They are followed by the lower-risk and high-risk areas, accounting for 15.5% and 9.6%, respectively. In terms of space, waterlogging risk in the city proper of Ningbo is high in the south and low in the north. The high-risk area is mainly located to the west of Jiangdong district and the middle of Haishu district. The low-risk area is mainly distributed in the north of Jiangbei district. These results are consistent with the historical situation of waterlogging in Ningbo, which prove the effectiveness of the risk assessment model and provide an important reference for the government to prevent and mitigate waterlogging. The optimized risk assessment model is also of importance for waterlogging risk assessments in coastal cities. Based on this model, the waterlogging risk of coastal cities can be quickly assessed, combining with local characteristics, which will help improve the city’s capability of responding to waterlogging disasters and reduce socio-economic loss.

scholarly journals Gastric Cancer Risk Prediction Using an Epidemiological Risk Assessment Model and Polygenic Risk Score

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 876
Author(s):  
Boyoung Park ◽  
Sarah Yang ◽  
Jeonghee Lee ◽  
Il Ju Choi ◽  
Young-Il Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Polygenic Risk Score ◽  
Genome Wide Association Studies ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Infection Status ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
H Pylori

We investigated the performance of a gastric cancer (GC) risk assessment model in combination with single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as a polygenic risk score (PRS) in consideration of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection status. Six SNPs identified from genome-wide association studies and a marginal association with GC in the study population were included in the PRS. Discrimination of the GC risk assessment model, PRS, and the combination of the two (PRS-GCS) were examined regarding incremental risk and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), with grouping according to H. pylori infection status. The GC risk assessment model score showed an association with GC, irrespective of H. pylori infection. Conversely, the PRS exhibited an association only for those with H. pylori infection. The PRS did not discriminate GC in those without H. pylori infection, whereas the GC risk assessment model showed a modest discrimination. Among individuals with H. pylori infection, discrimination by the GC risk assessment model and the PRS were comparable, with the PRS-GCS combination resulting in an increase in the AUC of 3%. In addition, the PRS-GCS classified more patients and fewer controls at the highest score quintile in those with H. pylori infection. Overall, the PRS-GCS improved the identification of a GC-susceptible population of people with H. pylori infection. In those without H. pylori infection, the GC risk assessment model was better at identifying the high-risk group.

scholarly journals Gene expression and DNA methylation analyses suggest that two immune related genes are prognostic factors of colorectal cancer

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Liang Xing ◽  
Zhi-Yong Yao ◽  
Chaoqun Xing ◽  
Zhi Huang ◽  
Jing Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gene Expression ◽  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Dna Methylation ◽  
Differentially Expressed Genes ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Immune Cells ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Differentially Expressed ◽  
Risk Assessment Model

Abstract Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most prevalent cancer, as it accounts for approximately 10% of all annually diagnosed cancers. Studies have indicated that DNA methylation is involved in cancer genesis. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationships among DNA methylation, gene expression and the tumor-immune microenvironment of CRC, and finally, to identify potential key genes related to immune cell infiltration in CRC. Methods In the present study, we used the ChAMP and DESeq2 packages, correlation analyses, and Cox regression analyses to identify immune-related differentially expressed genes (IR-DEGs) that were correlated with aberrant methylation and to construct a risk assessment model. Results Finally, we found that HSPA1A expression and CCRL2 expression were positively and negatively associated with the risk score of CRC, respectively. Patients in the high-risk group were more positively correlated with some types of tumor-infiltrating immune cells, whereas they were negatively correlated with other tumor-infiltrating immune cells. After the patients were regrouped according to the median risk score, we could more effectively distinguish them based on survival outcome, clinicopathological characteristics, specific tumor-immune infiltration status and highly expressed immune-related biomarkers. Conclusion This study suggested that the risk assessment model constructed by pairing immune-related differentially expressed genes correlated with aberrant DNA methylation could predict the outcome of CRC patients and might help to identify those patients who could benefit from antitumor immunotherapy.

scholarly journals Prediction of the risk of developing diabetes mellitus among Bangladeshi adults by using risk assessment score

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-47
Author(s):  
Nazma Akter
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Blood Glucose ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Diabetes Risk ◽  
High Blood Glucose ◽  
History Of ◽  
Diabetes Risk Score

Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is considered as one of the major health problems worldwide. The rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Bangladesh is primarily attributed to rapid urbanization and associated changes in lifestyle, such as sedentary lifestyle, higher calorie food intake and stressful life. Studies support the utilization of riskassessment scoring systems in quantifying individual’s risk for developing T2DM. Thus, a simple risk-assessment scoring system for early screening of T2DM among Bangladeshi adults will be beneficial to identify the high-risk adults and thus taking adequate preventive measures in combating DM.The purpose of the study was to calculate the risk assessment score of developing T2DM within 10 years among Bangladeshi adults. Methods: The cross-sectional observational study was carried out in the outpatient department (OPD) of Medicine, MARKS Medical College & Hospital, a tertiary care hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh from February 2018 to July 2018 among randomly sampled 205 adult subjects. Subjects undiagnosed with diabetes mellitus and had previous history of high blood glucose during pregnancy or other health examination (i.e. impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance or gestational diabetes mellitus) were included. From a review of literature regarding risk factors of developing DM in Bangladesh, the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) system was found to be more useful for the Bangladeshi adults. The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) questionnaire was used to collect the data including demographic characteristics and different risk factors and to calculate total risk score for predicting the risk of developing T2DM within 10 years. Results: Among 205 subjects, male and female were 57.1% and 42.9% respectively. The Mean (±SD) age of the study subjects was 37.64±1.07 years. In this study, both non-modifiable and modifiable risk factors showed statistically significant association with the FINDRISC among Bangladeshi adults (p<0.05). There was a significant association among FINDRISC with history of previous high blood glucose, and treated hypertensive Bangladeshi adults.33.65% of the Bangladeshi adults had slightly elevated diabetes risk score (DRS). This study predicts that 17.55% of the Bangladeshi adults may have moderate to high risk to develop T2DM within the consecutive 10 years. Conclusion: This study provides a simple, feasible, non-invasive and convenient screening FINDRISC tool that identifies individuals at risk of having T2DM. People with high risk of DM should be referred for early intervention and changes to a healthy lifestyle and primary prevention to prevent or delay the onset of T2DM. Birdem Med J 2020; 10(1): 40-47

A Validated Risk Model for Prediction of Early Readmission in Patients with Hepatic Encephalopathy

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 0-10
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Kruger ◽  
Fasika Aberra ◽  
Sylvester M. Black ◽  
Alice Hinton ◽  
James Hanje ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Hepatic Encephalopathy ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Early Readmission ◽  
The Impact

Introduction and aim. Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a common complication in cirrhotics and is associated with an increased healthcare burden. Our aim was to study independent predictors of 30-day readmission and develop a readmission risk model in patients with HE. Secondary aims included studying readmission rates, cost, and the impact of readmission on mortality. Material and methods. We utilized the 2013 Nationwide Readmission Database (NRD) for hospitalized patients with HE. A risk assessment model based on index hospitalization variables for predicting 30-day readmission was developed using multivariate logistic regression and validated with the 2014 NRD. Patients were stratified into Low Risk and High Risk groups. Cox regression models were fit to identify predictors of calendar-year mortality. Results. Of 24,473 cirrhosis patients hospitalized with HE, 32.4% were readmitted within 30-days. Predictors of readmission included presence of ascites (OR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.06-1.33), receiving paracentesis (OR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.26-1.62) and acute kidney injury (OR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.00-1.22). Our validated model stratified patients into Low Risk and High Risk of 30-day readmissions (29% and 40%, respectively). The cost of the first readmission was higher than index admission in the 30-day readmission cohort ($14,198 vs. $10,386; p-value < 0.001). Thirty-day readmission was the strongest predictor of calendar-year mortality (HR: 4.03; 95% CI: 3.49-4.65). Conclusions. Nearly one-third of patients with HE were readmitted within 30-days, and early readmission adversely impacted healthcare utilization and calendar-year mortality. With our proposed simple risk assessment model, patients at high risk for early readmissions can be identified to potentially avert poor outcomes.

Preliminary analysis and assessment of breast cancer risk in Japanese women.

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e13092-e13092
Author(s):  
Michiyo Yamada ◽  
Takashi Ishikawa ◽  
Sadatoshi Sugae ◽  
Kazutaka Narui ◽  
Eiji Arita ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Family History ◽  
Breast Cancer Risk ◽  
Cancer Risk ◽  
Japanese Women ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Brinkman Index

e13092 Background: No comprehensive breast cancer risk assessment model for Japanese women exists. Consequently, we have collected Japanese women’s data to investigate key BC risk factors with an objective of deriving a Japanese-women specific BC risk assessment model. Methods: We conducted a retrospective case-control study (paper-based with postal survey) at 15 institutions during 2014-2015. A survey was distributed to Japanese females aged 20-80 who had BC check-up. All pertinent data of a total of 34 factors including demographic and reproductive factors, social history and eating habits was collected. Cases and controls were divided into three groups respectively, premenopausal (PRE; 20 ≤ age < 45), perimenopausal (PERI; 45 ≤ age ≤ 55) and postmenopausal group (POST; 55 < age ≤ 80). Cases and control variables were compared by t-test, chi-square test and Wilcoxon rank sum test. Preliminary BC risk was calculated by logistic regression analysis. Results: A total of 3975 female Japanese datasets were collected, of which 2494 were complete (all variables present) with 1401 controls and 1093 cases were used. There were 222 cases and 332 controls for PRE, 404 cases and 537 controls for PERI, and 467 and 532 controls for POST. The univariate analysis demonstrated that BMI was significantly higher in cases than in controls in all groups (P < 0.01) as was “number of deliveries” in PRE and POST (P < 0.001) and Brinkman index in PRE and PERI (p = 0.017). Multivariate analysis revealed that BC risk was positively associated with BMI (OR 1.080, 95% CI 1.017–1.148, p = 0.012) in PRE, BMI (OR 1.121, 95% CI 1.072–1.174, p < 0.01) and brinkman index (OR 1.000005, 95% CI 1.000002–1.000008, p < 0.01) in PERI, age (OR 1.054, 95% CI 1.028–1.081, p < 0.010), BMI (OR 1.153, 95% CI 1.076-1.171, p < 0.01) and family history (OR 1.497, 95% CI 1.103–2.033, p = 0.001) in POST, while negatively associated with regular exercise (OR 0.672, 95% CI 0.517–0.873, p = 0.003) in POST. Conclusions: BMI in all groups, in addition, the Brinkman index in PERI and age and family history in POST are BC risk factors. Exercise is a protective risk factor in POST. However, the preliminary results are incomplete and further analysis will be conducted before a full risk assessment model is proposed for Japanese women.

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