scholarly journals VALIDITY OF F-H PUZZLE IN PAKISTAN ECONOMY: A TIME SERIES STUDY

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-96
Author(s):  
Haris Masood ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Time Series Study ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration ◽  
Economic Survey ◽  
Series Study

Purpose-The objective of this paper is to examine the validity of F-H puzzle in the context of Pakistan. In this study the Feldstein-Horioko puzzle investigated in Pakistan which states that the existence of relationship between saving and investment is the indication of capital immobility. Methodology-The data of gross domestic product saving, capital formation and current account from 1980 to 2016 collected from State Bank of Pakistan, IMF outlook data base and Economic Survey of Pakistan.The ADF and PP test used to find out the stationarity of the variables. Famous Johansen cointegration used to check the long run relationship between saving and investment and between current account and investment. Findings-The results of unit root test indicate that all the variables are stationary at their first difference. The empirical results of cointegration test shows that there is no long run relation exist between saving and investment and long run relationship exist between current account and investment which does not support the findings of F-H puzzle and shows that capital is perfectly mobile in case of Pakistani economy.

scholarly journals ANALISIS HUBUNGAN PENDAPATAN WISATAWAN DAN HARGA PARIWISATA TERHADAP PERMINTAAN PARIWISATA DENGAN VECM

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
MERARY SIANIPAR ◽  
NI LUH PUTU SUCIPTAWATI ◽  
KOMANG DHARMAWAN
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

Tourism demand is focused on estimating variables which influence tourist visit. The tourism demand that we discuss on this research is the tourism demand to Bali of the major tourism-generating country was Australia. The aim of this research is to analyze the relationship between tourist income and tourism price to tourism demand using VECM. VECM requires that the variables in the model must be stationary and fulfilled a cointegration condition. In order to make it valid, the stationarity of variables in the model have to be checked using ADF unit root test. In additon, cointegration between these variables are examined using Johansen’s cointegration test. The results of ADF unit root test show that indicated the tourist income, the tourism price and the tourism demand for Australia data are stationary in first lag or I(1). Cointegration test shows that all variables are cointegrated, i.e. have a long-run relationship. In the long-run, the tourist income and tourism price give positive effect to the tourism demand. This means, the increase of tourist income and tourism price will contribute to the increase in tourism demand. In addition, in the short-run, the tourist income and the tourism price give negative effect to the tourism demand. This means, the increase of tourist income and tourism price will contribute to the decrease in tourism demand.

scholarly journals Effects of Foreign Debt and Foreign Aid on Economic Growth in Somalia

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Ali Yassin Sheikh Ali ◽  
Mohamed Saney Dalmar ◽  
Ali Abdulkadir Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test

This paper aims to assess the effects of foreign debt and foreign aid on economic growth in Somalia from 1970 to 2014. The ordinary least squares (OLS) method was used and basic model assumption tests were also employed. We used the Augmented Dickey−Fuller (ADF) and Philip-Perron (PP) tests for the unit root and the Johansen cointegration test to determine the long-run relationship between the variables. The results of the study show that, in Somalia, foreign debt has an insignificant effect on economic growth, while the foreign aid has positive significant effect on economic growth. The results also indicate that the cointegration method confirms the incidence of long-run association among the variables. There is little research regarding the exact relationship between increasing foreign debt and foreign aid on economic growth in Somalia. This study is also different from previous studies as we used ADF and PP tests for the unit root and the Johansen cointegration test for the long-run relationship between the variables. Additionally, the study used multivariate techniques. The paper concludes that foreign aid is essential in economic growth and several policy implications are proposed.

scholarly journals Comparative Study of the Impact of Oil Rent on Healthcare in Nigeria and Cameroon: A Three Stage Methodical Approach

2019 ◽  
pp. 58-63
Author(s):  
EWUBARE, Dennis Brown ◽  
OBAYORI, Elizabeth Lizzy
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Panel Unit Root ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Rents ◽  
The Impact

The study comparatively examined the impact of oil rent on healthcare in Nigeria and Cameroon from 1995 to 2015. The objectives of the study are to; study the trend of oil rents and healthcare in Nigeria and Cameroon; examine the relationship between oil rent and healthcare of Nigerians and Cameroonians and determine the impact of mineral rent on the healthcare of Nigeria and Cameroon. To achieve these objectives panel data were collected on health, oil rent and mineral rent and analyzed using the econometric techniques of panel unit root test and panel cointegration test as well as graphical method. The panel unit root and cointegration test showed that all the series are indeed stationary and have long run equilibrium relationship. Comparatively, the graph showed that the rents from oil in Nigeria are lower than that of Cameroon. Also, Cameroon performs better in rents from minerals than Nigeria. Thus, Cameroon capital expenditure on health has steadily increased since 1995 up to 2015 while Nigeria seems not to take healthcare expenditure serious hence the dismal performance in the infant mortality rates. Based on the findings, it is recommended that revenue from oil should be towards inclusive growth, thereby impacting significantly on the healthcare and welfare of the citizens. Thus, there should be investment in primary as well as maternal health in the rural areas for the disadvantaged in society.

An Empirical Analysis of Nigeria’s Current Account Sustainability

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-76
Author(s):  
Mohammed Shuaibu ◽  
Mutiu Abimbola Oyinlola
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Current Account Sustainability

This study reexamines the sustainability of the current account in Nigeria over four decades using time-series analysis on annual data from 1981 to 2013. We focus on two analytical distinctions to the inter-temporal budget constraint (IBC) hypothesis in relation to previous studies. First, we extend the standard bivariate approach to a multivariate framework that accounts for the roles of oil price variations and financial deepening, which have important implications for resource allocation. Second is the use of the Toda–Yamamoto modified Wald (MWALD)-based causality test that is also carried out to arbitrage between the results with and without a structural break. It employs both the conventional unit root test (augmented Dickey–Fuller [ADF] and Phillips–Perron [PP]) and the unit root test with a structural break (Perron, 2006; Zivot & Andrews, 1992). It also carries out the conventional residual-based cointegration test (Engle & Granger, 1987) and the residual-based cointegration test with a structural break (Gregory & Hansen, 1995). Findings suggest that there is current account sustainability in Nigeria and structural changes were not very potent during the period under consideration. This implies that the Nigerian economy complied with the IBC hypothesis, suggesting that exports could actually finance imports. JEL Classification: F30, F32

scholarly journals The effects of tax structure on economic growth: evidence from Pakistan economies

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 109
Author(s):  
Mahfooz Khan ◽  
Saif Ul amin ◽  
Sammandar Khan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Long Run

The study has been conducted to find out the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in Pakistan. Taxes are selected as a proxy for fiscal policy and GDP as an economic growth. In this study the time series analysis was used. The study used difference tests and models. These tests were unit root test which at different levels was used for stationary and non-stationary another model was co-integration the co-integration further used two tests one was trace test and second one was maximum Eigen value these tests used for long run relationships between taxes and GDP. In this study Granger causality test lag 2 and lag 4 also for checking the effects of taxes on Pakistan GDP. The objectives of the study are to find out the relationship between taxes and GDP and also to testify the random walk between taxes and GDP. The data were taken from 1981 to 2012. Taxes dealt as an independent and GDP as a dependent variable of the study. Data were collected from Federal Bureau of Statistics and from Pakistan economic survey. Time series analysis is used to testify the hypotheses. The results of Unit Root test shows that GDP and taxes has a unit root and it is non- stationary. GDP has no unit root and stationary in nature at 1st difference level. The results of co-integration shows that both taxes and GDP no co-integration at 5 % level of significance. The study concludes that there is no Co-integration between taxes and GDP. The study recommended that fiscal policy should make according to the situation of the country and the tax rate should be change with a smooth rate.

Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Performance in Selected Sub Sahara African Countries: Panel Generalized Method of Moment Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 21179-21189
Author(s):  
Adejumo Musibau Ojo ◽  
Ogunbunmi S.T
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Method Of Moment ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Panel Unit Root ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moment

This study empirically examined the effect of macroeconomic indicators on economic performance of selected sub Sahara African Countries between 1990 and 2017. The study employed four variables: GDP growth rate, Inflation rate, Monetary policy rate and Exchange rate and panel unit root test using two criteria to test for stationarity, panel cointegration test was also conducted to test for long run cointegration between the variables employed and Generalized Method of Moment method of estimation was employed to check the relationships between the variables. The results of the panel unit root test result from the LLC and IPS methods shows that the order of integrations mixed with some of the variables being stationary at levels (GDPgr and INFL) and first difference (MPR and EXHR) at the same time.  The result of Pedroni cointegration test indicated the bivariate long-run cointegration equation between the variables employed. The GMM result revealed that all explanatory variables accounted for 23% variation of Economic performance in SSA. However, the study made the following policy implications: More balanced but flexible approach towards the MPR should be embraced to allow more room for impressive economic growth in these countries. Macroeconomic policy decision is not enough to stimulate growth in the economy of any nation. The interplay of fiscal instruments and monetary instruments backed with political will of the government on genuine implementation of well-thought out programmes can be employed as the  antidote to ensure that the macroeconomic objectives are achieved both in the short and long-run.

scholarly journals KOINTEGRASI DAN KAUSALITAS INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DAN DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL INDEX

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulus Sulluk Kananlua
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Impact

This research is obviously intended to analyze the impact of global financial crisis which happened in America and surrogated by the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI) towards the Indonesian Stock Exchange, represented by the composite index (IHSG). The study is conducted by using time series data ranging from January 2007 to July 2014. Data used consists of 60 months observation. In order to examine the time series data, Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) is employed. We run the statistical tool to estimate the respon caused by the shock of research variable. Before estimating the model of Vector Autoregression (VAR), the data used must following the unit root test, cointegration test, granger causality test, and then runned by using VAR model. Our result reveals that the data is not stationer at level, but stationer at first difference. The interpreted estimation output resulting from impulse response function and variance decomposition show that DJI’s respons is much bigger caused by the shock from DJI itself with average number stand on 99.36%. Further, the proportion of IHSG on average is 0.64%. Meanwhile the respon of IHSG sparked by the DJI is 53.10% on average. The remained value as 46.90% is caused by the shock from IHSG.  Key Words: DJI, IHSG, VAR, Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test, Granger Test, Impulse Response,Variance Decomposition

The role of parental self-regulation and household chaos in parent-toddler interactions: A time-series study.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanne B. Geeraerts ◽  
Joyce Endendijk ◽  
Kirby Deater-Deckard ◽  
Jorg Huijding ◽  
Marike H. F. Deutz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Household Chaos ◽  
Time Series Study ◽  
Series Study
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