scholarly journals Living with COVID-19: The road ahead

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (8) ◽  
pp. 619-628
Author(s):  
Wycliffe Enli Wei ◽  
Wei Keat Tan ◽  
Alex Richard Cook ◽  
Li Yang Hsu ◽  
Yik Ying Teo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Pandemic Preparedness ◽  
The Road ◽  
Mild Disease ◽  
The World ◽  
Response Measures ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Endemic State

ABSTRACT Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the world for more than a year, with multiple waves of infections resulting in morbidity, mortality and disruption to the economy and society. Response measures employed to control it have generally been effective but are unlikely to be sustainable over the long term. Methods: We examined the evidence for a vaccine-driven COVID-19 exit strategy including academic papers, governmental reports and epidemiological data, and discuss the shift from the current pandemic footing to an endemic approach similar to influenza and other re spiratory infectious diseases. Results: A desired endemic state is characterised by a baseline prevalence of infections with a generally mild disease profile that can be sustainably managed by the healthcare system, together with the resumption of near normalcy in human activities. Such an endemic state is attainable for COVID-19 given the promising data around vaccine efficacy, although uncertainty remains around vaccine immunity escape in emergent variants of concern. Maintenance of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains crucial until high vaccination coverage is attained to avoid runaway outbreaks. It may also be worthwhile to de-escalate measures in phases, before standing down most measures for an endemic state. If a variant that substantially evades immunity emerges, it will need to be managed akin to a new disease threat, with pandemic preparedness and response plans. Conclusion: An endemic state for COVID-19, characterised by sustainable disease control measures, is likely attainable through vaccination. Keywords: COVID-19, endemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions, transition, vaccination

scholarly journals Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1928) ◽  
pp. 20200538
Author(s):  
Warren S. D. Tennant ◽  
Mike J. Tildesley ◽  
Simon E. F. Spencer ◽  
Matt J. Keeling
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Models ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
British India ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
The World ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis infection, continues to threaten low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. The complex interactions between rodents and fleas with their respective environments challenge our understanding of human plague epidemiology. Historical long-term datasets of reported plague cases offer a unique opportunity to elucidate the effects of climate on plague outbreaks in detail. Here, we analyse monthly plague deaths and climate data from 25 provinces in British India from 1898 to 1949 to generate insights into the influence of temperature, rainfall and humidity on the occurrence, severity and timing of plague outbreaks. We find that moderate relative humidity levels of between 60% and 80% were strongly associated with outbreaks. Using wavelet analysis, we determine that the nationwide spread of plague was driven by changes in humidity, where, on average, a one-month delay in the onset of rising humidity translated into a one-month delay in the timing of plague outbreaks. This work can inform modern spatio-temporal predictive models for the disease and aid in the development of early-warning strategies for the deployment of prophylactic treatments and other control measures.

A case study of noise pollution levels during the restrictions period due to COVID-19.

2021 ◽  
Vol 263 (6) ◽  
pp. 206-214
Author(s):  
David Montes-González ◽  
Juan Miguel Barrigón-Morillas ◽  
Ana Cristina Bejarano-Quintas ◽  
Manuel Parejo-Pizarro ◽  
Guillermo Rey-Gozalo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Noise Pollution ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Acoustic Measurements ◽  
Pollution Levels ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

The pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) led to the need for drastic control measures around the world to reduce the impact on the health of the population. The confinement of people in their homes resulted in a significant reduction in human activity at every level (economic, social, industrial, etc.), which was reflected in a decrease in environmental pollution levels. Studying the evolution of parameters, such as the level of environmental noise caused by vehicle traffic in urban environments, makes it possible to assess the impact of this type of measure. This paper presents a case study of the acoustic situation in Cáceres (Spain) during the restriction period by means of long-term acoustic measurements at various points of the city.

A Closer Look at the Culture of Infidelity

2020 ◽  
pp. 180-200
Author(s):  
Steven M. Ortiz
Keyword(s):  
Professional Sports ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Road ◽  
Emotional Relationships ◽  
The World ◽  
On The Road ◽  
The One ◽  
Communication Methods

This chapter takes a deeper look at the culture of infidelity that pervades the world of professional sports, why wives share a universal fear that their husbands will be unfaithful, and how they are affected by the possibility or actuality that their husbands will engage in sexual or emotional relationships with other women. Three patterns of infidelity are identified in the context of the sport marriage: the one-time encounter, the short-term affair, and the long-term affair. The concept of suspicion work is introduced to examine how wives try to manage the fear that their husbands may succumb to temptation and to specify how denial can be part of this process. The chapter discusses re-entry routines and communication methods some couples use when husbands return from travel, and the boundaries of fidelity and forgiveness wives establish as they attempt to cope with the realities of their husbands’ lives on the road.

The Demographic Transition Theory of War: Why Young Societies Are Conflict Prone and Old Societies Are the Most Peaceful

2019 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 53-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah Jordan Brooks ◽  
Stephen G. Brooks ◽  
Brian D. Greenhill ◽  
Mark L. Haas
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Demographic Transitions ◽  
The Road ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The World ◽  
Theory Of War ◽  
First Time

The world is experiencing a period of unprecedented demographic change. For the first time in human history, marked disparities in age structures exist across the globe. Around 40 percent of the world's population lives in countries with significant numbers of elderly citizens. In contrast, the majority of the world's people live in developing countries with very large numbers of young people as a proportion of the total population. Yet, demographically, most of the world's states with young populations are aging, and many are doing so quickly. This first-of-its kind systematic theoretical and empirical examination of how these demographic transitions influence the likelihood of interstate conflict shows that countries with a large number of young people as a proportion of the total population are the most prone to international conflict, whereas states with the oldest populations are the most peaceful. Although societal aging is likely to serve as a force for enhanced stability in most, and perhaps all, regions of the world over the long term, the road to a “demographic peace” is likely to be bumpy in many parts of the world in the short to medium term.

scholarly journals Projected epidemiological consequences of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in England, December 2021 to April 2022

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosanna C Barnard ◽  
Nicholas G Davies ◽  
Carl A B Pearson ◽  
Mark Jit ◽  
W John Edmunds
Keyword(s):  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Immune Escape ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Gene Target ◽  
S Gene ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The Omicron B.1.1.529 SARS-CoV-2 variant was first detected in late November 2021 and has since spread to multiple countries worldwide. We model the potential consequences of the Omicron variant on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and health outcomes in England between December 2021 and April 2022, using a deterministic compartmental model fitted to epidemiological data from March 2020 onwards. Because of uncertainty around the characteristics of Omicron, we explore scenarios varying the extent of Omicron's immune escape and the effectiveness of COVID-19 booster vaccinations against Omicron, assuming the level of Omicron's transmissibility relative to Delta to match the growth in observed S gene target failure data in England. We consider strategies for the re-introduction of control measures in response to projected surges in transmission, as well as scenarios varying the uptake and speed of COVID-19 booster vaccinations and the rate of Omicron's introduction into the population. These results suggest that Omicron has the potential to cause substantial surges in cases, hospital admissions and deaths in populations with high levels of immunity, including England. The reintroduction of additional non-pharmaceutical interventions may be required to prevent hospital admissions exceeding the levels seen in England during the previous peak in winter 2020-2021.

scholarly journals Bayesian Estimation of real-time Epidemic Growth Rates using Gaussian Processes: local dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in England

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Marcela Guzman Rincon ◽  
Edward M Hill ◽  
Louise Dyson ◽  
Michael J Tildesley ◽  
Matt J Keeling
Keyword(s):  
Regional Growth ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Epidemiological Trends ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Quantitative Assessments

Quantitative assessments of the recent state of an epidemic and short-term projections into the near future are key public health tools that have substantial policy impacts, helping to determine if existing control measures are sufficient or need to be strengthened. Key to these quantitative assessments is the ability to rapidly and robustly measure the speed with which the epidemic is growing or decaying. Frequently, epidemiological trends are addressed in terms of the (time-varying) reproductive number R. Here, we take a more parsimonious approach and calculate the exponential growth rate, r, using a Bayesian hierarchical model to fit a Gaussian process to the epidemiological data. We show how the method can be employed when only case data from positive tests are available, and the improvement gained by including the total number of tests as a measure of heterogeneous testing effort. Although the methods are generic, we apply them to SARS-CoV-2 cases and testing in England, making use of the available high-resolution spatio-temporal data to determine long-term patterns of national growth, highlight regional growth and spatial heterogeneity.

scholarly journals Integrated vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions based strategies in Ontario, Canada, as a case study: a mathematical modelling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (180) ◽  
pp. 20210009
Author(s):  
Matthew Betti ◽  
Nicola Luigi Bragazzi ◽  
Jane M. Heffernan ◽  
Jude Kong ◽  
Angie Raad
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Local Public Health ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Epidemiological Trend ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Recently, two coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine products have been authorized in Canada. It is of crucial importance to model an integrated/combined package of non-pharmaceutical (physical/social distancing) and pharmaceutical (immunization) public health control measures. A modified epidemiological, compartmental SIR model was used and fit to the cumulative COVID-19 case data for the province of Ontario, Canada, from 8 September 2020 to 8 December 2020. Different vaccine roll-out strategies were simulated until 75% of the population was vaccinated, including a no-vaccination scenario. We compete these vaccination strategies with relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Non-pharmaceutical interventions were supposed to remain enforced and began to be relaxed on 31 January, 31 March or 1 May 2021. Based on projections from the data and long-term extrapolation of scenarios, relaxing the public health measures implemented by re-opening too early would cause any benefits of vaccination to be lost by increasing case numbers, increasing the effective reproduction number above 1 and thus increasing the risk of localized outbreaks. If relaxation is, instead, delayed and 75% of the Ontarian population gets vaccinated by the end of the year, re-opening can occur with very little risk. Relaxing non-pharmaceutical interventions by re-opening and vaccine deployment is a careful balancing act. Our combination of model projections from data and simulation of different strategies and scenarios, can equip local public health decision- and policy-makers with projections concerning the COVID-19 epidemiological trend, helping them in the decision-making process.

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions are measures to control coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) transmission in India

Coronaviruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 01 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ponnuswamy Vijayaraghavan ◽  
Srikrishnan Rajendran Sriramkumar
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Whole Genome ◽  
The World ◽  
Chennai City ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

: The coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is a pathogenic and transmittable viral disease cause by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and this disease was emerged on December 2019 in Wuhan, China. It was later spread across the world, including United States, Great Britain, Brazil, Russia, Germany, Spain, Italy, Iran, Pakistan, India and other countries. The whole genome of SARS-CoV-2 shared some similarity with SARS virus, hence bat was suspected to spread this virus in China. However human to human transfer was reported. In India, more than 300 COVID-19 cases were reported on March 21, 2020 and these numbers were increased as 892551 on July 13, 2020. These numbers of COVID-19 cases were detected from a total of 11806256 samples according to the report given by Government of India. As on July 13, Maharashtra state of India recorded a total of 254427 cases and 10289 deaths were registered. Tamilnadu was another state screened more number of COVID-19 cases, followed by Maharashtra. As on July 6, 114978 COVID-19 cases were reported in Tamilnadu and 1571 deaths were recorded. In Tamilnadu alone, over 3000 COVID-19 cases were reported daily from July first week to second week and total cases were 142798 on July 13, 2020. Among these cases, 78573 COVID-19 cases were detected in Chennai city alone accounted about 62% of total COVID-19 cases. It was earlier believed that patients over aged 60 and less than 10 were highly vulnerable to this disease. However, this disease affected all age groups. To prevent COVID-19, no approved antiviral vaccine or drug has yet been discovered. COVID-19 is transmitted through droplets during coughing and sneezing by symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers. Non-pharmaceutical interventions such as washing hands and social distancing are effective measures to control COVID-19 transmission in India. The present study was designed to analyze the control measures of COVID-19 infection and ground reality to control COVID-19 outbreak.

scholarly journals Bioengineering measures for stabilising cut slopes of Dipayal-Mallekh road, Far Western Nepal

1970 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 79-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gobinda Ojha ◽  
Raju Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Slope Angle ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Slope Length ◽  
Moisture Condition ◽  
The Road ◽  
Slope Instabilities ◽  
Cut Slopes ◽  
Bio Engineering

The Dipayal-Mellekh road is considered as one of the major infrastructures of the northern region of Doti District as it is only the motorable access. The road extends for about 40 km and is 8 m wide. It passes through six Village Development Committees. This paper describes possibility of using Plantation as a treatment option to safeguard the road and reduce long term maintenance. The study shows that roadside slope instabilities and erosion problems exist in the road alignment due to presence of highly weathered rocks and high cut slope angles. On the basis of slope length, slope angle, material drainage, and site moisture condition, the erosion control measures were suggested. Jute netting with grass lines plantation, site seedling of shrub and trees, vegetated gabion wall, brush layering, palisades, live check dam and fascines are recommended bio-engineering measures for controlling instabilities and erosion problems along the road.   doi: 10.3126/bdg.v10i0.1423     Bulletin of the Department of Geology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal, Vol. 10, 2007, pp. 79-88

A Clustering Ant Colony Algorithm for the Long-Term Car Pooling Problem

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuhan Guo ◽  
Gilles Goncalves ◽  
Tienté Hsu
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Ant Colony Algorithm ◽  
Ant Colony ◽  
Pooling Problem ◽  
Travel Destination ◽  
The Road ◽  
The World ◽  
Private Car ◽  
On The Road

Along with the increase of population and the dispersion of habitation, the use of private cars has been increasing drastically. More and more vehicles on the road have caused significant traffic congestion, noise, and energy waste. Car pooling, which is based on the idea that sets of car owners having the same travel destination share their vehicles, has emerged to be a viable possibility for reducing private car usage around the world. This paper describes a clustering ant colony algorithm for solving the long-term car pooling problem. Computational results are given to show the superiority of the authors’ approach compared with other metaheuristics.

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