scholarly journals An Exploratory Study to Find the Early Trend and Pattern Recognition of COVID-19 Infection in India: A Severity Model-Based Prediction

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-303
Author(s):  
Afreen Khan ◽  
Swaleha Zubair ◽  
Najam Khalique ◽  
Samreen Khan
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Inflection Point ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Acute Stage ◽  
Patient Status ◽  
Robust Model ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Future ◽  
Exploratory Data ◽  
Tools And Techniques

Background: Recent Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has inflicted the whole world critically. Although India has been listed amongst the top ten highly affected countries to date, one cannot rule out COVID-19 associated complications in the near future. Aim & Objective: We aim to build the COVID-19 severity model employing logistic function which determines the inflection point and help in the prediction of the future number of confirmed cases. Methods and Material: An empirical study was performed on the COVID-19 patient status in India. We performed the study commencing from 30 January 2020 to 12 July 2020 for the analysis. Exploratory data analysis (EDA) tools and techniques were applied to establish a correlation amongst the various features. The acute stage of the disease was mapped in order to build a robust model. We collected five different datasets to execute the study. Results: We found that men were more prone to get infected with the coronavirus disease as compared to women. On 165-days based analysis, we found a trending pattern of confirmed, recovered, deceased and active cases of COVID-19 in India. The as-developed growth model provided an inflection point of 72.0 days. It also predicted the number of confirmed cases as 17,80,000.0 in the future i.e. after 12th July. A growth rate of 32.0 percent was obtained. We achieved statistically significant correlations amongst growth rate and predicted COVID-19 confirmed cases. Conclusions: This study demonstrated the effective application of EDA and analytical modeling in building a mathematical severity model for COVID-19 in India.

Severity Model Based Prediction of Early Trend and Pattern Recognition of the COVID-19 Infection in India: Exploratory Data Analysis and Machine Learning Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Afreen Khan ◽  
Swaleha Zubair
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Inflection Point ◽  
Exploratory Data Analysis ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Acute Stage ◽  
The Future ◽  
Exploratory Data ◽  
The Impact

UNSTRUCTURED Objective: Recent Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has inflicted the whole world critically. Despite the fact that India has not been listed amongst the top ten highly affected countries, one cannot rule out COVID-19 associated complications in the near future. The accumulative testing facilities has resulted in exponential increase in COVID-19 infection cases. In figures, the number of positive cases have risen up to 33,614 as of 30 April, 2020. Keeping into consideration the serious consequences of pandemic, we aim to establish correlations between the numerous features which was acquired from the various Indian-based COVID datasets, and the impact of the containment of the pandemic on the current state of Indian population using machine learning approach. We aim to build the COVID-19 severity model employing logistic function which determines the inflection point and help in prediction of the future number of confirmed cases. Methods: An empirical study was performed on the COVID-19 patient status in India. We performed the study commencing from 30 January, 2020 to 30 April, 2020 for the analysis. We applied the machine learning (ML) approach to gain the insights about COVID-19 incidences in India. Several diverse exploratory data analysis ML tools and techniques were applied to establish a correlation amongst the various features. Also, the acute stage of the disease was mapped in order to build a robust model. Results: We collected five different datasets to execute the study. The data sets were integrated extract the essential details. We found that men were more prone to get infected of the coronavirus disease as compared to women. Also, the age group was the middle-young age of patients. On 92-days based analysis, we found a trending pattern of number of confirmed, recovered, deceased and active cases of COVID-19 in India. The as-developed growth model provided an inflection point of 85.0 days. It also predicted the number of confirmed cases as 48,958.0 in the future i.e. after 30th April. Growth rate of 13.06 percent was obtained. We achieved statistically significant correlations amongst growth rate and predicted COVID-19 confirmed cases. Conclusion: This study demonstrated the effective application of exploratory data analysis and machine learning in building a mathematical severity model for COVID-19 in India.

Delay Discounting in Impulsive Behavior

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 312-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana Moreira ◽  
Fernando Barbosa
Keyword(s):  
Delay Discounting ◽  
Human Subjects ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Cochrane Collaboration ◽  
Initial Assessment ◽  
Impulsive Behavior ◽  
Manual Search ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Delay discounting (DD) is the process of devaluing results that happen in the future. With this review, we intend to identify specificities in the processes of DD in impulsive behavior. Studies were retrieved from multiple literature databases, through rigorous criteria (we included systematic reviews and empirical studies with adult human subjects), following the procedures of the Cochrane Collaboration initiative. Of the 174 documents obtained, 19 were considered eligible for inclusion and were retained for in-depth analysis. In addition, 13 studies from the manual search were included. Thus, a total of 32 studies were selected for review. The objectives/hypotheses, results, and the main conclusion(s) were extracted from each study. Results show that people with pronounced traits of impulsivity discount rewards more markedly, that is, they prefer immediate rewards, though of less value, or postponed losses, even though they worsen in the future. Taken together, the existing data suggest the importance of inserting DD as a tool for initial assessment in conjunction with measures of addiction and stress level, as well as the consideration of new therapies.

scholarly journals The UPTAKE study: implications for the future of COVID-19 vaccination trial recruitment in UK and beyond

Trials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonika Sethi ◽  
Aditi Kumar ◽  
Anandadeep Mandal ◽  
Mohammed Shaikh ◽  
Claire A. Hall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Small Towns ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Trial Recruitment ◽  
Trial Management ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Future

Abstract Background Developing a safe and effective vaccine will be the principal way of controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. However, current COVID-19 vaccination trials are not adequately representing a diverse participant population in terms of age, ethnicity and comorbidities. Achieving the representative recruitment targets that are adequately powered to the study remains one of the greatest challenges in clinical trial management. To ensure accuracy and generalisability of the safety and efficacy conclusions generated by clinical trials, it is crucial to recruit patient cohorts as representative as possible of the future target population. Missing these targets can lead to reduced validity of the study results and can often slow down drug development leading to costly delays. Objective This study explores the key factors related to perceptions and participation in vaccination trials. Methods This study involved an anonymous cross-sectional online survey circulated across the UK. Statistical analysis was done in six phases. Multi-nominal logistic models examined demographic and geographic factors that may impact vaccine uptake. Results The survey had 4884 participants of which 9.44% were Black Asian Minority Ethnic (BAME). Overall, 2020 (41.4%) respondents were interested in participating in vaccine trials; 27.6% of the respondents were not interested and 31.1% were unsure. The most interested groups were male (OR = 1.29), graduates (OR = 1.28), the 40–49 and 50–59 age groups (OR = 1.88 and OR = 1.46 respectively) and those with no health issues (OR = 1.06). The least interested groups were BAME (OR = 0.43), those from villages and small towns (OR = 0.66 and 0.54 respectively) and those aged 70 and above (OR = 1.11). Conclusions In order to have a vaccination that is generalisable to the entire population, greater work needs to be done in engaging a diverse cohort of participants. Public health campaigns need to be targeted in improving trial recruitment rates for the elderly, BAME community and the less educated rural population.

scholarly journals The Accession Pedagogy

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bilge Firat
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Policy Tools ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
The Future ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
Tools And Techniques ◽  
Viable Model ◽  
The Eu

From 1989, new plans to enlarge the EU caused growing public disenchantment with the future of European integration as a viable model of cooperation among states and peoples in Europe. To manage disenchantment, EU actors designed various policy tools and techniques in their approaches to European peripheries such as Turkey. Among these, they intensified and perfected processes of pedagogy where EU actors assume that they have unique knowledge of what it means to be 'European' and that they must teach accession candidates how to become true Europeans. Based on accounts of EU politicians and officials, past experiences of government officials from former EU candidate states and Turkish officials' encounters with the EU's accession pedagogy, this article explores the EU's enlargement policy as a pedagogical engagement and the responses it elicits among Turkish governmental representatives, in order to test the reconfigurations of power between Europe and the countries on its margins.

scholarly journals Design Principles: Literature Review, Analysis, and Future Directions

2016 ◽  
Vol 138 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine K. Fu ◽  
Maria C. Yang ◽  
Kristin L. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Design Science ◽  
Design Principles ◽  
Grand Challenge ◽  
Formal Approach ◽  
Design Problems ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Future Design ◽  
The Future ◽  
Tools And Techniques ◽  
Archival Practices

Design principles are created to codify and formalize design knowledge so that innovative, archival practices may be communicated and used to advance design science and solve future design problems, especially the pinnacle, wicked, and grand-challenge problems that face the world and cross-cutting markets. Principles are part of a family of knowledge explication, which also include guidelines, heuristics, rules of thumb, and strategic constructs. Definitions of a range of explications are explored from a number of seminal papers. Based on this analysis, the authors pose formalized definitions for the three most prevalent terms in the literature—principles, guidelines, and heuristics—and draw more definitive distinctions between the terms. Current research methods and practices with design principles are categorized and characterized. We further explore research methodologies, validation approaches, semantic principle composition through computational analysis, and a proposed formal approach to articulating principles. In analyzing the methodology for discovering, deriving, formulating, and validating design principles, the goal is to understand and advance the theoretical basis of design, the foundations of new tools and techniques, and the complex systems of the future. Suggestions for the future of design principles research methodology for added rigor and repeatability are proposed.

The Future of the Nigerian Agricultural Industries: A Case Study of Oil Palm Production in Edo State

2013 ◽  
Vol 824 ◽  
pp. 561-567 ◽  
Author(s):  
U.J. Udosen ◽  
A.P. Ugboya
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Oil Palm ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The Future ◽  
Edo State ◽  
Agricultural Industries ◽  
Fresh Fruit Bunches ◽  
Planting Materials

This study analyzes oil palm production from 2001 - 2008 in Edo State, with a view of establishing the future of Nigerian Agricultural oil palm industries. The specific objectives were to identify and quantify the factors influencing the production of oil palm, reveal the constraints to the production of oil palm; analyze the viability of oil palm production as an investment and predict the future of oil palm enterprise in Edo State. Three Local Government Areas of high oil palm concentration in Edo State were covered. Ninety selected oil palm producers from nine villages in the study area were selected. Frequency distributions and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze the results. The results showed that for the period under review (2001 - 2008) on a per hectare basis, seedlings cost, and labour cost were significant inputs, positively influencing the production of oil palm in the Edo State. A growth rate of 6.2% and 23.5% were projected for oil palm with reference to palm oil and fresh fruit bunches (FFB), respectively, up to the year 2020, an indication that oil palm production in the State is viable and the future is bright. The study revealed that inadequate storage facilities, poor planting materials and lack of government assistance, among others, are major bottlenecks in oil palm production in Edo State. However, since oil palm production in Edo State is viable, it is an indication that the future of Nigerian Agricultural Industries is bright.

scholarly journals The Future of Internationalization of Higher Education in Europe

2015 ◽  
pp. 2-3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans De Wit ◽  
Fiona Hunter
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Delphi Process ◽  
Internationalization Of Higher Education ◽  
International Higher Education ◽  
Digital Learning ◽  
European Context ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Future

A study has been made for the European Parliament on the understanding of internationalization of higher education (IoHE) in the European context, based on two surveys, an analysis of the role of digital learning, ten national reports from Europe and seven from outside Europe. The study results in conclusions and recommendations on the future of internationalization of higher education in Europe, based on the national reports and a Delphi process among experts in international higher education. This is a summary of the key findings of the study, including a redefinition of the meaning of internationalization.

scholarly journals The possibilities of using group regression in the analysis of the diameter structure development in selection forests of Tara

2002 ◽  
pp. 79-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Slobodanka Mitrovic ◽  
Stanisa Bankovic
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Functional Dependence ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Structure Development ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Future ◽  
Diameter Structure ◽  
Group Regression ◽  
Diameter Classes

Based on the presented study results, it can be concluded that the distribution of tree numbers per diameter degrees (diameter structure) in the four measurements of the compartments 51 and 75, did not change. It was also concluded that one functional dependence could be applied for both compartments N=e5,9?e?0,39*d The result of the above is that also in the following measurements, the diameter structure will remain unchanged, in cases of the same or similar selection cuttings both by the scope and by the distribution of felled trees per diameter classes The primary objective of this type of study is to predict, based on a mathematical model of diameter structure development, effect of the scope of selection cuttings and the number of recruitments on the diameter structure, and the simulation of growth, the distribution of trees per diameter classes in the following measurement or measurements, i.e. to foresee the future development of selection stands.

scholarly journals Exploring farmers’ perception on climate-induced events and adaptation practices to protect crop production and livestock farming in Haor area of northeastern Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tasneem Chowdhury Fahim ◽  
Bivuti Bhushan Sikder
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Livestock Farming ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Tools And Techniques ◽  
Adaptation Practices ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Bangladesh is confronting terrible impacts of climate change on agriculture across the country, especially in the low-lying area like- Haor, coastal region, and islands. This behavioral study (N = 320) examines the perception and knowledge of farmers on climate-induced events and experiences, and explores the adaptation practices they adopt to protect crop production and livestock farming from the impact of climate change in the Northeastern Haor area of the country. Using triangulation method, it is detected that farmers of the study area have erroneous idea on climate change and the causes of frequent climate extremes. Study results show that respondents’ perception and experiences on climate-induced event are verified positively with the historical trend and time-series analysis of climate indicators as well as with the findings of researchers using PRA tools and techniques. This study explores the traditional and systematic adaptation approaches of farmers which are practiced in individual or community level. The rationale of each of the approach from respondents’ side is also analyzed in the study. It is statistically tested using chi-square that some of the scientific and systematic adaptation options for crop production is predominantly influenced by the educational qualifications of the respondents. The study reveals that lack of proper information prevents subsistence farmers to find the most effective adaptation pathways.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document