scholarly journals Industrial Sector output and Its Relationship with Government Expenditure, Credit, and Foreign Aid in Nepal

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-148
Author(s):  
Arjun Kumar Dahal ◽  
Bijayahari Khatiwada
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Affecting Factors ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test

The study's goal is to look into the state, long-run relationship, and casual link of government spending, commercial bank lending, and foreign aid to Nepal's industrial sector output. The research design for this study is descriptive and analytical. The secondary data are processed using Excel and EViews10 software from 1989/90 to 2018/19. The Johnsen Co-integration test and Granger Causality test describe and analyze the relation and causal impact of variables. The credit of commercial banks highly influences industrial output. The industrial sector output, government expenditure, loans, and foreign aid were Co-integrated or had long-run association ship. This paper contributes to the policy debate on whether government expenditure and foreign support to the industrial sector are justified or not. The author is unaware of another study, finding, and location related to industrial output and its affecting factors like government expenditure, loans, and foreign aid.

scholarly journals Role of Tax Revenue, Non-tax Revenue, and Foreign Aid to Increase the Size of Budget in Nepal

2020 ◽  
pp. 31-48
Author(s):  
Arjun Kumar Dahal ◽  
Ghanshyam Dhakal ◽  
Khagendra Kumar Thapa
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose: The purpose of the present study is to find the impact of tax revenue, non-tax revenue, and foreign aid to increase the size of the budget in Nepal. Methods: This study is based on descriptive, analytical, and exploratory research designs. The Johnsen Co-integration Test, VECM, Wald Test, and Granger Causality Test are used to find long-run relation, impact, short-run causality, and granger cause between the pairs of variables. Results: The tax revenue, non-tax revenue, foreign aid, and budget are co-integrated, or they have a long-run association ship. The result of VECM shows that tax revenue, non-tax revenue, foreign aid is nicely fitted, and they are jointly significant to explain the size of the budget in Nepal. Short-run causality was found between the size of budget and tax revenue and size of budget and foreign aid, but there was an absence of short-run causality between budget and non-tax revenue in Nepal. The granger cause was not found between the pair of variables. Implications: It seems to increase the tax revenue and decrease the dependency on foreign aid. Limitations: This study was based on the secondary data of 40 years from the fiscal year 1979/80 to 2018/19.  Only three variables, tax revenue, non-tax revenue, and foreign aid, are considered the effecting factor of the budget size. Hence, further study is necessary by employing other tools and variables. Originality: The author was not affected by the study and findings of others.

scholarly journals Energy Prices, Real Estate Sales and Industrial Output in China

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1847 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Chau ◽  
Gaolu Zou
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Energy Efficient Buildings ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Short Run

A majority of energy is consumed to control the indoor environment for human activities and industrial production. The demand for energies for these two uses are reflected in demand for different types of real estate and the volume of industrial outputs. The purpose of this study is to examine the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics between real energy prices and demand for different types of real estate and industrial output in China. Energy prices are measured in the real price of fuels and power. Demand for different types of real estate is measured in their sales volume in the first hand market, that is, floor areas of new real estate sold by developers. Industrial output is measured by the net output (value added) of the industrial sector. All data series were tested for stationarity (i.e., the existence of a unit root) before testing for a co-integration relationship. We found no long-term equilibrium relationship between energy prices and the demand for real estate and industrial output as predicted by theory, probably due to increased supply of energy efficient buildings. There is also no short-run relationship between energy prices and demand for housing due to the increase in vacancy rate resulting from speculative demand for housing. However, demand for commercial properties appeared to lead energy prices. Finally, there is strong evidence suggesting that an increase in energy prices will significantly reduce industrial output but not vice versa.

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development and Economic Growth Evidence from Saudi Arabia

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najeeb Muhammad Nasir ◽  
Mohammed Ziaur Rehman ◽  
Nasir Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Saudi Arabian ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Resources ◽  
Integration Test

This study is an effort to explain and establish a relationship among foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth in Saudi Arabian context for the period of 1970 to 2015 by employing Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and modified Granger Casualty Models. The result of Johansen co-integration test illustrates that no long run co-integration can be established among the variables. VAR has established a link between economic growth, financial development and foreign direct investment. The Granger causality test also confirms that economic growth causes foreign direct investment and financial development which is a unidirectional causality running from economic growth towards foreign direct investment and financial development. No significant causality can be observed empirically between foreign direct investment and financial development. This feature can be attributed to the fact that Saudi Arabian economy is still heavily dependent on its oil resources which is the driving force behind growth. Impulse Response Function has been utilized in order to observe the response to the shocks among the variables.

scholarly journals AID AND GROWTH IN BANGLADESH: A REASSESSMENT

2018 ◽  
pp. 422-440
Author(s):  
Sharif Hossain ◽  
Rajarshi Mitra ◽  
Thasinul Abedin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

Although the amount of foreign aid received by Bangladesh as a share of GDP has declined over the years, Bangladesh remains one of the heavily aiddependent countries in Asia. The results of most empirical studies that have examined the effectiveness of foreign aid or other forms of development assistance for economic growth have varied considerably depending on the econometric methodology used and the period of study. As the debate and controversy over aid-effectiveness for economic growth continue to grow, this paper reinvestigates the short-run and long-run effects of foreign aid received on percapita real income of Bangladesh over the period 1972–2015. A vector error correction model is estimated. The results indicate lack of any significant short-run and long-run relation between foreign aid and per-capita real income. Results further indicate short-run unidirectional causalities from per-capita real GDP to domestic investment (in proportion to GDP), from government expenditure (in proportion to GDP) to inflation rate, from inflation rate to domestic investment (in proportion to GDP), and from domestic investment to foreign aid (as percentages of GDP). Short-run bidirectional causality is observed between per-capita electricity consumption and per-capita real GDP, and between per-capita real GDP and government expenditure (in proportion to GDP).

scholarly journals COINTEGRATING RELATION BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND GOLD PRICE

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 263-269
Author(s):  
Ranjusha ◽  
Devasia ◽  
Nandakumar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Relationship

The very purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between gold price and Rupee – Dollar exchange rate in India. The study utilises the annual data of exchange Rate (ER) and Gold Price (GP) from 1970 to 2015 to determine the relationship. Different econometric tools like Unit root test, Johansen co integration test, Vector error correction model, Granger causality test are used for detecting the long run relation, if any between the mentioned variables. The result shows that there exists a long run cointegrating relation between the variables. That is we can stabilise the Gold Price movement by controlling the exchange rate fluctuations. Likewise it also shows that Exchange rate doesn’t Granger cause to Gold price and vice versa. It means that the time series data of one vasriable cannot be used to predict another.

PENGUJIAN WAGNER'S LAW VERSUS KEYNESIAN HYPOTHESIS: PENDEKATAN REGIONAL INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-193
Author(s):  
Esti Pasaribu ◽  
Septriani Septriani
Keyword(s):  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Empirical Theory ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Wagner's Law ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

In this paper, we tested the Wagner’s Law against the Keynesian Hypothesis for Indonesia using granger causality test. After conducting theoretical and empirical theory, this paper is analysing the relationship between government expenditure and GDP percapita. The long run parameters and causality test found valid Wagners’ Law in Indonesia not Keynesian Hypothesis. The results reveal a positive and statistically significant long run effect running from economic growth toward the government expenditure refer to Wagner’s Law in Indonesia. Further more, the growth of population is giving a positive effect for government expenditure also.

The relationship between foreign aid and corruption: a case of selected Asian countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 692-704
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ali ◽  
Lubna Khan ◽  
Amna Sohail ◽  
Chin Hong Puah
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Foreign Assistance ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of foreign aid (FA) on corruption in selected Asian countries (Pakistan, India, Srilanka and Bangladesh) using the panel data from 2000 to 2014. Design/methodology/approach The author used Levin-Lin-Chu and Im-Pesaran-Shin panel unit root tests to check the stationary properties of the variables. The Pedroni’s and Kao panel cointegration approach was applied to analyze the variable’s long-run relationship. The author used panel dynamic ordinary least squares (PDOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) framework to estimate the coefficients of cointegrating vectors. Additionally, the panel granger causality test was performed to check the causal relationship between the variables. Findings The results from PDOLS and FMOLS indicate that FA has a significant negative impact on the level of corruption. This infers that the foreign assistance decrease the level of corruption perception index, hence, more corruption in the country. Originality/value Overall, the study fulfills the need to understand the aid-corruption nexus, particularly in the case of the Asian region.

scholarly journals Co-integration of Groundnut Markets in India with Special Reference to Karnataka State

2020 ◽  
pp. 14-22
Author(s):  
Akshata Nayak ◽  
H. Lokesha ◽  
C. P. Gracy
Keyword(s):  
Market Integration ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Groundnut Oil ◽  
Step Method ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Government

Aims: Market integration is an indicator that explains how different markets are related to each other. The main aim of the paper is to examine the market integration of groundnut seed and oil markets in India.  Study Design: This paper examines the market integration in six major groundnut oil markets and four groundnut pod markets using monthly wholesale prices of groundnut. Methodology: Test for stationarity was done using Dickey Fuller Test. The Engle-Granger two-step method is used to test for co-integration between the variables. Johansen co-integration test was applied to analyse the long run equilibrium among the groundnut markets. Results: Unit root test indicated that the price series in each location are non-stationary at their levels and stationary at their first differences. The Granger causality test indicated that all the market pairs are well co-integrated, some of the markets have bidirectional relationship and some have unidirectional relationship at five per cent level of significance, which implies that the groundnut prices have an equally long run association. Conclusion: In overall, the study suggests that regional markets for groundnut in India are strongly co-integrated. Therefore, the Government can stabilize the price in one key market and rely on commercialization to produce a similar outcome in other markets. This reduces the cost of stabilization considerably.

scholarly journals Granger Causality Between Local Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
Sri Kurniawati
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Reciprocal Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
West Kalimantan ◽  
Integration Test

Objective - This study examines the causal relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in West Kalimantan between 2009 and 2015. This research resulted in the enactment of Wagner's Law and/or Keynes's Theory in West Kalimantan leading the local government to take the right policies as an effort towards improving economic development. Methodology/Technique - By using panel data that combines time series data and cross-site data, it will be estimated by the Granger causality test which begins with a stationary test and co-integration test. Based on the co-integration tests, the results suggest that there is a long-term relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. Meanwhile, based on the Granger causality test, there is no reciprocal relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. Findings - A direct relationship in the form of the influence of government expenditure on economic growth in West Kalimantan. Novelty - These results are in line with the Keynes's Theory through its national income function. Type of Paper: Empirical Keywords: Government Expenditure; Economic Growth; Co-integration; Causality. JEL Classification: F40, F43, F49.

scholarly journals Impact of Economic Reforms, FDI and Imports on GDP: Trends and Regression Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 20-25
Author(s):  
Preeti Sharma ◽  
Priyanka Sahni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test

The aim of this study is to explore the causal relationship between the exports, imports and economic growth of Chinese economy using time series data running from 1978 to 2016.Co integration, Granger Causality analysis and Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) has been used in order to test the hypotheses about the presence of causality and co integration among the variables. The co integration test confirmed that exports, imports and GDP are co integrated, indicating an existence of long run equilibrium relationship among the variables and also confirmed by the Johansen co integration test results. The Granger causality test finally confirmed the presence of bi-directional causality between exports, imports and GDP. The study further shows that relative share of china’s exports in world exports has increased significantly after the introduction of economic reforms. Further, the rising exports have also made a significant contribution to the economic growth of Chinese economy due to forward and backward linkages.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document