scholarly journals An Econometric Model for Nigeria’s Rice Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rakiya Yakubu Abdulsalam ◽  
Mad Nasir Shamsudin ◽  
Zainalabidin Mohamed ◽  
Ismail Abd. Latif ◽  
Kelly Kai Seng Wong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Technological Advancement ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Rice Market ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Paddy Area ◽  
Paddy Yield

A dynamic econometric model of Nigeria’s rice market was designed to serve as a base for future policy analyses. Using time-series data spanning 38 years, the model contains four structural equations representing paddy area harvested, paddy yield, per capita demand, and producer price variables. Estimates for these equations were obtained using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration approach. Results of the paddy production and yield sub-models showed that paddy area harvested, and paddy yield was price inelastic. Furthermore, the paddy area harvested responded favourably to technological advancement. For the demand sub-model, estimated own price and cross-price elasticities showed that rice has an inelastic demand response, with wheat being a substitute. A series of validation tests strengthened the reliability of the model for use as an empirical framework for forecasting and analysing the effects of changes in policies such as rice import tariff reforms on production, consumption, retail price, and imports.

scholarly journals Welfare Implication of Paddy Price Support Withdrawal from Malaysian Rice Sector: Partial Equilibrium Method Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 48 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 45-52
Author(s):  
Haruna Suleiman Umar ◽  
Amin Mahir Abdullah ◽  
Mad Nasir Shamsudin ◽  
Zainal Abidin Mohamed
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Price Support ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Welfare Implication ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Societal Welfare

Abstract The study was designed to analyze societal welfare implication of paddy price support withdrawal, as an alternative policy, from rice sector in Malaysia. Time series data (1980-2012) were collected and analyzed through different stages of analyses. The first stage of analysis involved time series econometric model namely, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), which was used in coefficients estimation. Estimated coefficients were subjected to, and passed the relevant diagnostic tests. The estimated elasticities were then used for the second stage of analysis- scenario simulation. Finally, the generated simulation results were further used in estimating the societal welfare changed through appropriate estimation technique. Results show producer welfare loss of about RM189 million, and RM198 million was saved as revenue. The net gain or societal welfare improvement was about RM9 million. Simulated results show up to 10% reduction in paddy producer price or farm income; this could serve as disincentive to rice producers. Since the country is concerned about achieving rice self-sufficiency and rice food security, necessary precautionary measures have to be instituted to prevent farmers exit from paddy farming, by putting a concerted effort towards channeling the trickle-down benefit of societal welfare improvement, resulting from policy option, to rice producers particularly the dominant smallholder group.

Macro-Economic Disequilibrium and Educational Development in Nigeria between 1980-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (08) ◽  
pp. 20592-21600
Author(s):  
Gbadebo Salako ◽  
Adejumo Musibau Ojo ◽  
Jaji Ayobami Francis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Educational Development ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
Level I

This study empirically investigates the effects of macroeconomic disequilibrium on educational development in Nigeria. The study employed time series data between 1980 and 2017. Autoregressive Distributed Lag method of estimation was employed. The result revealed that the variables stationarity test were mixed between the first difference I(I) and level I(0). The cointegration result shows that there exist long run relationship between the variables. The result revealed that Balance of payment, Poverty, Debt rate inflation and unemployment exhibited negative relationship with educational development. The estimation result showed that all explanatory variables account for 88% variation of educational development in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that government should fast track policies that can stabilize inflation and exchange rate in the country. Also, Policies must be formulated to reduce poverty and unemployment.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Econometric Evidence from Malaysia

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-112
Author(s):  
Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker ◽  
Tan Siew Ee ◽  
Sushant Vaidik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Paper Cover ◽  
Econometric Evidence ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The objective of this paper is to test the validity of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) in the Malaysian economy. Malaysia has always been considered to have attained its growth primarily through exports (Okposin, Bassey, Hamid, Halim, and Boon, 1999; Mun, 2008; Mahathir, 1990). In the past, several studies on this topic have been conducted but their analyses were limited to relationships using Bound-testing, Autoregressive –Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Toda Yamamoto analysis. Empirical data and analysis in our paper cover a 21 – year span and quarterly time-series data (1991:Q1 – 2012:Q4) are used to test this ELG hypothesis. Also, many dynamic econometric measures including the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip – Perron (PP) unit root tests, Cointegration test as well as the Vector Error Correction model (VEC) for the long run have been applied. Based on these generic models, both real exports and capital stock (productivity) are found to have stimulated positive adjustments to economic growth in the long run whereas real exchange rate is found to have influenced economic growth negatively. Overall, our conclusion is that the ELG hypothesis seems applicable to Malaysia in the long run.

Temporal trends of the association between extreme temperatures and hospitalisations for schizophrenia in Hefei, China from 2005 to 2014

2021 ◽  
Vol 78 (5) ◽  
pp. 364-370
Author(s):  
Rubing Pan ◽  
Qizhi Wang ◽  
Weizhuo Yi ◽  
Qiannan Wei ◽  
Jian Cheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Extreme Temperatures ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Related Hospitalisation ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
And Gender

ObjectiveWe aimed to examine the temporal trends of the association between extreme temperature and schizophrenia (SCZ) hospitalisations in Hefei, China.MethodsWe collected time-series data on SCZ hospitalisations for 10 years (2005–2014), with a total of 36 607 cases registered. We used quasi-Poisson regression and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to assess the association between extreme temperature (cold and heat) and SCZ hospitalisations. A time-varying DLNM was then used to explore the temporal trends of the association between extreme temperature and SCZ hospitalisations in different periods. Subgroup analyses were conducted by age (0–39 and 40+ years) and gender, respectively.ResultsWe found that extreme cold and heat significantly increased the risk of SCZ hospitalisations (cold: 1st percentile of temperature 1.19 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.37) and 2.5th percentile of temperature 1.16 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.31); heat: 97.5th percentile of temperature 1.37 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.66) and 99th percentile of temperature 1.38 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.69)). We found a slightly decreasing trend in heat-related SCZ hospitalisations and a sharp increasing trend in cold effects from 2005 to 2014. However, the risk of heat-related hospitalisation has been rising since 2008. Stratified analyses showed that age and gender had different modification effects on temporal trends.ConclusionsThe findings highlight that as temperatures rise the body’s adaptability to high temperatures may be accompanied by more threats from extreme cold. The burden of cold-related SCZ hospitalisations may increase in the future.

scholarly journals Analysis of Budget Imbalance Dynamics in Kenya

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 352
Author(s):  
Alex Oguso ◽  
Francis M. Mwega ◽  
Nelson H. Wawire ◽  
Purna Samanta
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Seeking Behavior ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
The Government

<p><em>Kenya needs substantial and sustained fiscal consolidation to create fiscal space for financing the government’s election pledges, the Vision 2030 development projects, and sustainable development goals. However, the government has found it hard to sustain its fiscal consolidation attempts. This study investigates the fiscal consolidation constraints that act through the budget imbalance dynamics in Kenya using the </em><em>Olivera-Tanzi effect approach.</em><em> The study covers the period 2000-2015</em><em> using time series data and employs three </em><em>Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) error correction models</em><em> in the analysis. The study showed that a </em><em>rise in the general price levels in the economy, adjustment of minimum wages, rise</em><em> in perceived levels of corruption in the public sector and the political budget cycles (occurrence of a general election) worsen the budget imbalances (deficits) thus </em><em>constrain fiscal consolidation efforts in Kenya. The study also demonstrated that </em><em>budget imbalance dynamics in Kenya could partly be explained by the Olivera-Tanzi proposition. </em><em>The study rec</em><em>ommends measures to reduce the fiscal imbalance gap in Kenya, which include controlling both supply and demand side inflationary pressure and dealing with rent seeking behavior in the public sector.</em></p>

scholarly journals Consequences of Capital formation, Trade Liberalization on the Economic Growth: Pakistan’s Experience

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Nadia Bukhari ◽  
Anjum Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Adf Test

This study considers the long run relationship between the liberalization of trade, capital formation and the economic growth of Pakistan by using the time series data from 1975-2013. The main aim of this study is to examine that how much liberalization of trade and capital formation affects the economic growth of Pakistan in long run. The approach that has been used for empirical analysis is Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Under the ADF test capital formation (CF) is stationary at its first level but the trade openness (TO) and GDP is stationary at its first difference. Moreover, the granger casualty test is evident that there become a casual relationship between the trade openness and GDP. The result of this study shows that both the trade openness and the capital formation determined the economic growth in long run and they both have statistically significant effect on the GDP. Furthermore it has has been depicted from the study that the trade has a vital role to influence the economic growth.

scholarly journals Financial innovation and economic growth: evidence from Zimbabwe

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 65-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Bara ◽  
Calvin Mudzingiri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Dark Side ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests

The role of financial innovation on economic growth in developing countries has not been actively pursued. Stemming from the finance-growth nexus, literature suggests that financial innovation has a relationship to growth, which could be either positive or negative. Implicitly, financial innovation has a good and a dark side that affects growth. This study establishes the causal relationship between financial innovation and economic growth in Zimbabwe empirically. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds tests and Granger causality tests on financial time series data of Zimbabwe for the period 1980-2013, the study finds that financial innovation has a relationship to economic growth that varies depending on the variable used to measure financial innovation. A long-run, growth-driven financial innovationis confirmed, with causality running from economic growth to financial innovation. Bi-directional causality also exists after conditionally netting-off financial development. Policies that enhance economic growth inter-twined with financial innovation are essential, if developing countries, such as Zimbabwe, aim to maximize economic development

scholarly journals Financial Deepening And Financial Performance Of Deposit Money Banks In Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (11) ◽  
pp. 179-191
Author(s):  
Mulkat Ajibola Yusuff ◽  
Fatimah Olabisi Olaniran-Akinyele
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Market Capitalization ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag

This study examines the effect of financial deepening on financial performance of Nigerian Deposit Money Banks using time-series data spanning 1990Q1-2017Q4. The financial performance is expressed by return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) with total bank liability, private sector credit and market capitalization as measure of financial deepening. The technique of analysis deployed is autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) to co integration. The findings show that the effect of total bank liability is positive and significant. Market capitalization and private sector credit on the other hand exert negative and significant effect. The study concludes that financial deepening affect financial performance of Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria. It then recommends effective loan recovery strategy to mitigate the negative influence of private sector credit due to non-performing loans.

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