scholarly journals Do Fiscal Rules Cause Fiscal Discipline Over the Electoral Cycle?

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (291) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kodjovi Eklou ◽  
Marcelin Joanis
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Design ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Geographical Pattern ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Political Budget Cycles ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Public Consumption ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Exogenous Source

This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on political budget cycles in a sample of 67 developing countries over the period 1985–2007. We exploit the geographical pattern in the adoption of fiscal rules to isolate an exogenous source of variation in the adoption of national fiscal rules. Based on a diffusion argument, we use the number of other countries in a given subregion that have fiscal rules in place to predict the probability of having them at the country level. We find that in election years with fiscal rules in place, public consumption is reduced by 1.6 percentage point of GDP as compared to election years without these rules. This impact is equivalent to a reduction by a third of the volatility of public consumption in our sample. Furthermore, the effectiveness of these rules depends on their type, their institutional design, whether they have been in place for a long time and finally on the degree of competitiveness of elections.

Analysis of tax-spend nexus for Russian regional budgets

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-29
Author(s):  
Evsey T. Gurvich ◽  
Natalia A. Krasnopeeva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Federal Level ◽  
Regional Budgets ◽  
Econometric Technique

We study the tax-spend nexus for Russian regional budgets. Causal relationship running from taxing to spending is found, thus supporting the concept “tax and spend” suggested by M. Friedman. Next, elasticity of expenditure by revenue is estimated for a panel of 80 regional budgets basing on data for 2000—2017. Estimates are in the range of 0.72 to 0.78 (depending on the econometric technique), which exceeds elasticity for the federal budget more than twice. This evidences that fiscal policy at the sub-federal (as distinct from the federal) level has clear pro-cyclical nature. Besides, the largest sensitivity of expenditure to revenue shocks is found for the item “national economy”, implying marked adverse implications for economic growth. We suggest to mitigate this effect by modifying fiscal rules for sub-federal budgets. They are currently aimed primarily at enhancing fiscal discipline, with less emphasis on countercyclical policy, insulating economy from fiscal shocks.

The Future Ain’t What It Used to Be

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashoka Mody
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Social Problems ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
European Project ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Right

This chapter describes two scenarios, the two possible ways in which the final act of the European project plays out. In the first scenario, European authorities remain confident that they have essentially been on the right track and they continue to make modest course corrections, which they believe will ensure a brighter European future. However, the elusive and frustrating pursuit of deeper economic and financial integration causes more economic and political damage. Setbacks and crises recur to test the euro and its accompanying political vision. In the second scenario, the pro-European vision, European authorities recognize the important truth that “more Europe” will not solve Europe's most pressing economic and social problems. They dismantle the economically counterproductive and politically corrosive system of fiscal rules and rely more on financial markets to enforce fiscal discipline. Paradoxically, the euro survives, not because it adds value but because it becomes largely irrelevant.

scholarly journals National fiscal rules and fiscal discipline in the European Union

2021 ◽  
Vol 53 (20) ◽  
pp. 2337-2359
Author(s):  
Amélie Barbier-Gauchard ◽  
Kea Baret ◽  
Alexandru Minea
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Fiscal Discipline

scholarly journals Midwives and Maternal Mortality Evidence from a Midwifery Policy Experiment in 19th Century Sweden

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Lorentzon ◽  
Per Pettersson-Lidbom
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Maternal Mortality ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Effective Strategy ◽  
Policy Experiment ◽  
Exogenous Source

Abstract This paper estimates the causal effect of a historical midwifery policy experiment on maternal mortality, infant mortality, and stillbirth during the period of 1830–1894 in Sweden. Exploiting sharp changes or “discontinuities” across time and place in the availability of trained and licensed midwives as an exogenous source of variation, we find that a doubling of trained midwives led to a 20%–40% reduction in maternal mortality and a 20% increase in the uptake of midwife-assisted homebirths. The results thus suggest that a 1% increase in the share of midwife-assisted homebirths decreased maternal mortality by as much as 2%, which is a remarkable finding given that midwife training was only 6–12 months at that time. The results of this study contribute to the current debate about the most effective strategy to reduce the unacceptably high rate of maternal mortality in many developing countries, especially in low-resource settings.

UNIQUELY SINGAPORE'S BUDGETARY SYSTEM AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FINANCING SCHEMES

2014 ◽  
Vol 59 (03) ◽  
pp. 1450024 ◽  
Author(s):  
NGEE CHOON CHIA
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic History ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Budgetary Process ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Welfare Programs ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Financing Schemes

This paper examines Singapore's fiscal position and its unique way of financing targeted welfare programs. We examine how reserves are accumulated through fiscal discipline during times of phenomenal economic growth in Singapore and when Singapore was enjoying demographic dividend. The existence of the large accumulated reserves has resulted in particular features of the Singapore's budgetary process, such as fiscal rules, which govern the utilization of revenues from the reserves. Innovative budget implementation, such as Block Budgeting, has helped Singapore to ensure fiscal sustainability. The accumulation of reserves throughout its economic history has afforded Singapore a unique way to fund social protection through special transfers and funds, without having to raise taxes.

Democracy and Quality of Life in Asian Societies

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 343-357
Author(s):  
SHINYA SASAOKA ◽  
KATSUNORI SEKI
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Political Regime ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Satisfaction With Democracy ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis article examines whether democracy affects quality of life. Scholars have conducted surveys to investigate whether democracy is likely to lead to good quality of life. There are two contested views to the relationship: some suggest that democracy has a positive causal effect on quality of life, whereas others contend that democracy does not play such a role. Previous findings are supported by cross-national statistical analysis with aggregated survey data. However, aggregated survey data may cause ecological fallacy. Also, in order to ascertain the extant research, it would be beneficial to test the hypothesis by incorporating both individual- and country-level variables. Therefore, this paper applied hierarchical modeling to investigate the regularity. Both individual-level perception of democracy and country-level political regime data were incorporated in our empirical model. Our findings suggest that individual-level satisfaction with democracy has positive causal effect on one's quality of life, whereas the country-level characteristic of the political regime has no effect.

Political Budget Cycles in Local Governments

2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernardino Benito ◽  
Francisco Bastida ◽  
Cristina Vicente
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Municipal Governments ◽  
Political Budget Cycles ◽  
Long Time Series ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Budget Cycles

This paper aims to analyse the impact of the electoral schedule on municipal governments’ financial activities. Specifically, we pay attention to capital spending, current spending and taxes. We use a long time series (1989-2008) of the 45 municipalities of the Region of Murcia (Spain). Our results show the existence of Political Budget Cycles on capital spending and taxes. We find an increase of capital spending in the electoral and pre-electoral years, when the impact is higher on voters. Taxes are reduced in the election year. We also prove that the mayor’s political orientation and political strength impact Political Budget Cycles. The mayor’s decision of running for re-election does not affect the magnitude of the cycle.

scholarly journals Effects of Socio-economic Factors on Research Over Systemic Sclerosis: an Analysis Based on Long Time Series of Bibliometric Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Guo ◽  
Zeyu Zhou ◽  
Yinhe Liang ◽  
Chuanhui Xu ◽  
Lin Zeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Sclerosis ◽  
Rare Disease ◽  
Research Output ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Socio Economic Factors

Abstract Background Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a rare detrimental disease warranting mobilization of global research efforts. Evaluating how socio-economic factors impact country research output on SSc could help to identify solutions advancing SSc research.Methods Publication production on SSc during 1969–2018 and data for structural and policy factors for WHO member countries were collected from public sources. Associations between SSc research output and country-level factors were investigated through panel regression. Difference-in-differences analysis further assessed the causal effects of rare disease legislation. Results SSc publications showed an increasing annual growth rate (−0.3% during 1969–1983 vs. 6.9% during 2000–2018), but were concentrated in high-income countries (HICs). Ten countries, nine of which were HICs, published 12 261 (77.5%) SSc publications but another 87 countries produced none. GDP, population and expenditure on research and development were positively associated with SSc publications (p<0.001). Higher health expenditure was only found to be associated with increased SSc publications in HICs (p<0.001). Rare disease legislation increased annual publication production by 62.8% (95% CI 0.390–0.867; p<0.001) averagely. In MICs, the effect was especially swift and lasting. No significant impact was found with GDP per capita, female percentage, and political indicators.Conclusions SSc research output increased over time with substantial country disparities. Effective health policies facilitating research should be expanded especially among MICs to accelerate research advancement.

scholarly journals Proces doskonalenia oceny równowagi budżetowej w Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 13-26
Author(s):  
Juliusz Giżyński ◽  
Ryszard Wierzba
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Stability And Growth Pact ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Budget Balance ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Political Will ◽  
Growth Pact ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Fiscal discipline is one of fundamental requirements of the Economic and MonetaryUnion as specified in the provisions of the Maastricht Treaty (1992) and laterelaborated on in the Stability and Growth Pact (1997). EMU Member States fromthe beginning had serious difficulties in adhering to the fiscal rules, which ledto the first reform of the SGP in 2005 resulting in more flexible fiscal rules. Despitegood economic situation, EMU’s economies still had budget deficits which furtherincreased with the global financial crisis causing government debts to soar overacceptable limits. In due time, two further reforms of SGP were enacted, in 2011and 2013, introducing new indicators and improvements in the assessment of thegovernment budget balance in the euro area. Nevertheless, enforcement of newrules still will depend on EMU governments political will.

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