scholarly journals Predictive Density Aggregation

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (78) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Caselli ◽  
Francesco Grigoli ◽  
Romain Lafarguette ◽  
Changchun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Kernel Density ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Sampling Techniques ◽  
Predictive Density ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Growth Distribution

In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries’ predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Speci?cally, we model non-parametrically the contemporaneous interdependencies across the United States, the euro area, and China via a conditional kernel density estimation of a joint distribution. Then, we characterize the potential ampli?cation e?ects stemming from other large economies in each region—also with kernel density estimations—and the reaction of all other economies with para-metric assumptions. Importantly, each economy’s predictive density also depends on a set of observable country-speci?c factors. Finally, the use of sampling techniques allows us to aggregate individual countries’ densities into a world aggregate while preserving the non-i.i.d. nature of the global GDP growth distribution. Out-of-sample metrics con?rm the accuracy of our approach.

World Fibers Demand

2001 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth W. Clements ◽  
Yihui Lan
Keyword(s):  
Product Space ◽  
Consumption Patterns ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Demand Systems ◽  
Common Currency ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
The World ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
World Demand ◽  
Cross Country

AbstractThis paper analyses the world demand for fibers using the system-wide approach with three dimensions—product × space × time. We investigate to what extent differences in international consumption patterns of fibers can be explained by differences in incomes and prices faced by different consumers. A novel approach to cross-country consumption comparisons is employed to avoid the troublesome problem of what exchange rates to use when converting data into a common currency unit. We use data from the ten largest consuming countries to estimate demand systems and then examine how they perform in predicting consumption patterns in a large number of out-of-sample countries.

Forecasting Interconnections in International Housing Markets: Evidence from the Dynamic Model Averaging Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-103
Author(s):  
Hardik A. Marfatia
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
The United States ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Change Over Time ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Dynamic Model Averaging ◽  
Over Time

In this paper, I undertake a novel approach to uncover the forecasting interconnections in the international housing markets. Using a dynamic model averaging framework that allows both the coefficients and the entire forecasting model to dynamically change over time, I uncover the intertwined forecasting relationships in 23 leading international housing markets. The evidence suggests significant forecasting interconnections in these markets. However, no country holds a constant forecasting advantage, including the United States and the United Kingdom, although the U.S. housing market's predictive power has increased over time. Evidence also suggests that allowing the forecasting model to change is more important than allowing the coefficients to change over time.

scholarly journals Orexin receptor antagonists reverse aberrant dopamine neuron activity and related behaviors in a rodent model of stress-induced psychosis

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah B. Elam ◽  
Stephanie M. Perez ◽  
Jennifer J. Donegan ◽  
Daniel J. Lodge
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Sensorimotor Gating ◽  
The United States ◽  
Dopamine Neuron ◽  
Neuron Activity ◽  
Sprague Dawley ◽  
Post Traumatic Stress ◽  
Neuron Population ◽  
Population Activity ◽  
Novel Approach

AbstractPost-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a prevalent condition affecting approximately 8% of the United States population and 20% of United States combat veterans. In addition to core symptoms of the disorder, up to 64% of individuals diagnosed with PTSD experience comorbid psychosis. Previous research has demonstrated a positive correlation between symptoms of psychosis and increases in dopamine transmission. We have recently demonstrated projections from the paraventricular nucleus of the thalamus (PVT) to the nucleus accumbens (NAc) can regulate dopamine neuron activity in the ventral tegmental area (VTA). Specifically, inactivation of the PVT leads to a reversal of aberrant dopamine system function and psychosis-like behavior. The PVT receives dense innervation from orexin containing neurons, therefore, targeting orexin receptors may be a novel approach to restore dopamine neuron activity and alleviate PTSD-associated psychosis. In this study, we induced stress-related pathophysiology in male Sprague Dawley rats using an inescapable foot-shock procedure. We observed a significant increase in VTA dopamine neuron population activity, deficits in sensorimotor gating, and hyperresponsivity to psychomotor stimulants. Administration of selective orexin 1 receptor (OX1R) and orexin 2 receptor (OX2R) antagonists (SB334867 and EMPA, respectively) or the FDA-approved, dual-orexin receptor antagonist, Suvorexant, were found to reverse stress-induced increases in dopamine neuron population activity. However, only Suvorexant and SB334867 were able to reverse deficits in behavioral corelates of psychosis. These results suggest that the orexin system may be a novel pharmacological target for the treatment of comorbid psychosis related to PTSD.

Site Selection Bias in Program Evaluation *

2015 ◽  
Vol 130 (3) ◽  
pp. 1117-1165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hunt Allcott
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Selection Bias ◽  
Site Selection ◽  
The United States ◽  
Randomized Control Trials ◽  
Program Evaluations ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Target Treatment ◽  
Randomized Control ◽  
Selection For

Abstract “Site selection bias” can occur when the probability that a program is adopted or evaluated is correlated with its impacts. I test for site selection bias in the context of the Opower energy conservation programs, using 111 randomized control trials involving 8.6 million households across the United States. Predictions based on rich microdata from the first 10 replications substantially overstate efficacy in the next 101 sites. Several mechanisms caused this positive selection. For example, utilities in more environmentalist areas are more likely to adopt the program, and their customers are more responsive to the treatment. Also, because utilities initially target treatment at higher-usage consumer subpopulations, efficacy drops as the program is later expanded. The results illustrate how program evaluations can still give systematically biased out-of-sample predictions, even after many replications.

scholarly journals Pulmonary Embolism Response Teams: A Novel Approach for the Care of Complex Patients With Pulmonary Embolism

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (9_suppl) ◽  
pp. 48S-55S ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateo Porres–Aguilar ◽  
Javier E. Anaya-Ayala ◽  
Gustavo A. Heresi ◽  
Belinda N. Rivera-Lebron
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cardiovascular Death ◽  
Pulmonary Embolectomy ◽  
Systemic Thrombolysis ◽  
Cardiopulmonary Support ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Adoption And Implementation ◽  
Complex Patients

Pulmonary embolism represents the third most common cause of cardiovascular death in the United States. Reperfusion therapeutic strategies such as systemic thrombolysis, catheter directed therapies, surgical pulmonary embolectomy, and cardiopulmonary support devices are currently available for patients with high- and intermediate-high–risk pulmonary embolism. However, deciding on optimal therapy may be challenging. Pulmonary embolism response teams have been designed to facilitate multidisciplinary decision-making with the goal to improve quality of care for complex cases with pulmonary embolism. Herein, we discuss the current role and strategies on how to leverage the strengths from pulmonary embolism response teams, its possible worldwide adoption, and implementation to improve survival and change the paradigm in the care of a potentially deadly disease.

scholarly journals Effects of body protection vests and experience levels in prevention of equestrian injuries

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. e000426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah A Andres ◽  
Adrienne M Bushau-Sprinkle ◽  
Michael E Brier ◽  
Yvette R Seger
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Safety Equipment ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Experience Levels ◽  
Equestrian Sports ◽  
Risk Of Injury ◽  
Report Data ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Serious Injuries ◽  
Show Jumping

ObjectivesTo investigate the risk reduction and benefit of wearing body protection/safety vests in equestrian sports.MethodsA comparison of equestrians wearing body protective vests and those not wearing vests was performed using incident report data of 718 participants in the United States Pony Clubs during 2011–2017. Data obtained included age, gender, certification level of member, type of activity, description of incident, description of injuries, what protective equipment was worn and other possible contributing factors.ResultsWhile wearing body protective vests when riding on the flat or for show jumping was not correlated with a decrease in injuries, wearing vests for cross country was correlated with decrease in reported injuries (p=0.036) and showed a trend towards a lower incident severity level (p=0.062). Wearing body protection during cross country reduced the relative risk of injury by 56%. While the volume of incidents varied with a rider’s experience level, the number of serious injuries did not appear to correlate with lesser equestrian experience.ConclusionsWhile equestrian sports are considered to have a certain degree of risk associated with them, there are ways to make them safer. Wearing safety equipment, such as helmets and body protection, and obtaining education and experience can lessen the chance of incurring serious injuries.

scholarly journals Biogas Upgrading: A Review of National Biomethane Strategies and Support Policies in Selected Countries

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (19) ◽  
pp. 3803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Schmid ◽  
Horschig ◽  
Pfeiffer ◽  
Szarka ◽  
Thrän
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Renewable Energies ◽  
Country Comparison ◽  
National Differences ◽  
Global Status ◽  
Legislative Framework ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Framework Conditions

Bioenergy contributes significantly towards the share of renewable energies, in Europe and worldwide. Besides solid and liquid biofuels, gaseous biofuels, such as biogas or upgraded biogas (biomethane), are an established renewable fuel in Europe. Although many studies consider biomethane technologies, feedstock potentials, or sustainability issues, the literature on the required legislative framework for market introduction is limited. Therefore, this research aims at identifying the market and legislative framework conditions in the three leading biomethane markets in Europe and compare them to the framework conditions of the top six non-European biomethane markets. This study shows the global status and national differences in promoting this renewable energy carrier. For the cross-country comparison, a systematic and iterative literature review is conducted. The results show the top three European biomethane markets (Germany, United Kingdom, Sweden) and the six non-European biomethane markets (Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States of America), pursuing different promotion approaches and framework conditions. Noteworthy cross-national findings are the role of state-level incentives, the tendency to utilise biomethane as vehicular fuel and the focus on residues and waste as feedstock for biomethane production. Presenting a cross-country comparison, this study supports cross-country learning for the promotion of renewable energies like biomethane and gives a pertinent overview of the work.

Indo-Pacific Legal Infrastructure: A China Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 113 ◽  
pp. 374-378
Author(s):  
Matthew S. Erie
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
Economic Law ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
International Economic Law ◽  
Region I ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road ◽  
Legal Infrastructure

The Indo-Pacific, given its economic and geopolitical significance as exemplified by the growing multilateralism in the region, is an incubatory space for innovative legal infrastructure. Against the backdrop of growing tension between the United States and China in the region, I emphasize China's expanding footprint through the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) and its capacity to shape institutions, practices, and norms of international economic law. I begin by providing context and then suggest six ways in which the BRI may offer a novel approach to international economic law, with particular salience for the Indo-Pacific region.

scholarly journals Market Diffusion of Extended Cycle Hormonal Contraceptives

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Megen Leeds Schumacher ◽  
Ashley Cetola Pettia ◽  
Albert I Wertheimer
Keyword(s):  
Hormonal Contraception ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Hormonal Contraceptive ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hormonal Contraceptives ◽  
Original Research ◽  
Main Concern ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Market Diffusion ◽  
Extended Cycle

Background: Extended cycle hormonal contraceptives (e.g. Seasonale, Seasonique) when introduced in 2003 were considered a very novel approach to contraception. The idea of manipulating the menstrual cycle so that women would experience just four menstruations a year was radical and was assumed to be responsible for the slow acceptance rate among the general public. Objective: This report analyzes two different aspects of the acceptance of this unique idea in the population. The first was the level of usage of extended cycle hormonal contraceptives in the general population, which was measured by a review of sales figures over time in the United States. The second was an examination of market diffusion as it relates to consumer perceptions regarding the characteristics of these products. Methods: To determine the degree of usage of extended cycle hormonal contraceptives the yearly sales, in terms of units sold, were compared with that of other leading methods of hormonal contraception. Along with the data, survey answers were obtained from 65 women who volunteered to participate in the study. Participants were selected randomly to represent the target population to assess the level of awareness about the benefits, risks, and any other concerns regarding the use of extended cycle hormonal contraceptives. Results: The yearly sales data of units sold showed a definitive increase in the sales of extended cycle hormonal contraceptives since their release on the market. The survey results showed an overwhelming awareness in the study population about the extended regimen. However, only about half of the women in the survey group were aware of its benefits. The main concern reported was the perceived significant side effect profile. Conclusion: Though awareness about the extended cycle hormonal contraception regimen was widespread, the survey population was not well informed about the advantages and the disadvantages regarding the degree of severity of side effects. To address these knowledge deficits, these aspects should be the focus when distributing information about extended cycle hormonal contraceptive regimens. This may boost the use of a potentially advantageous contraceptive regimen by a population who would derive benefit from its usage.   Type: Original Research

scholarly journals Relationship between Sustainable Development of Branches of Fuel and Energy Complex and Growth GDP

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2S11) ◽  
pp. 3760-3763 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
System Performance ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The World ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Relationship

The article discusses the relationship between the development of fuel and energy Uzbekistan with GDP growth (gross domestic product). Data are provided on the forecast growth rates of the world economy, the average developed countries and Uzbekistan, factors for ensuring GDP growth in tandem with the efficiency of the use of fuel and energy resources. Based on the cross-country regression analysis, the model of the influence of the energy system performance index (EAPI) on GDP growth is shown.

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