scholarly journals Owning protest but sharing distrust? Confidence in the political system and anti-political-establishment party choice in the Finnish 2011 parliamentary elections

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 21-35
Author(s):  
Maria Bäck ◽  
Elina Kestilä-Kekkonen
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Party Choice ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Party Preference ◽  
Political Distrust ◽  
Logistic Regressions

In this study we explore to what extent did anti-political-establishment voting mobilized manifest political distrust in the 2011 Finnish parliamentary elections. In particular, we seek to determine whether the channels of manifest political distrust vary for different forms of political trust. Individual-level data from the Finnish National Election Study (FNES 2011, N = 1,268) is analyzed by applying multinomial logistic regressions. The results show that antipolitical-establishment voting effectively channels both specific and diffuse political distrust, but this dissatisfaction is not reflected as anti-incumbency voting. Furthermore, it seems that a significant amount of latent political distrust, which is not explicitly expressed by party preference at electoral polls, exists in the electorates of several governmental and opposition parties.

Persistent Legacies of the Empires: Partition of Poland and Electoral Turnout

2020 ◽  
pp. 088832542090767
Author(s):  
Piotr Zagórski ◽  
Radosław Markowski
Keyword(s):  
Religious Service Attendance ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Electoral Turnout ◽  
Cultural Legacies ◽  
Socio Demographic Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Service Attendance

During the long nineteenth century, Poland was divided among the Russian, Habsburg, and Prussian empires. The partition produced regional diversity in political culture and in institutional and economic development. We examine how the cultural legacies of the empires have influenced the propensity of Poles to cast a ballot in parliamentary elections since 1989. Polish National Election Study individual-level data are used to assess whether higher levels of electoral turnout in Galicia are indeed a legacy of the Habsburg rule. Our results confirm that, even after controlling for socio-demographic factors, there is a positive, substantive, and significant effect on turnout of living in the ex-Habsburg part of Poland. This effect can be explained by the frequency of religious service attendance and by ideology. Inhabitants of Galicia not only attend religious services more frequently and are more conservative than their counterparts in the rest of Poland, but also the more frequently they attend church and the closer to the radical right they place themselves, the more mobilized they are to vote. The impact of the legacies of the empires on political behavior in Poland seems persistent.

Race, Trust, and the American Presidency

2021 ◽  
pp. 45-71
Author(s):  
Shayla C. Nunnally
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Political System ◽  
Black Americans ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
Early Years ◽  
The Political ◽  
The Public ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Blacks And Whites ◽  
Black President

This chapters asks, Does having a Black president, compared to previous administrations occupied by White presidents, lead to aberrational trust in government for Blacks and Whites? I posit that the Obama presidency indeed had this effect. During the years of the Obama presidency, we saw changes in perceptions of trust and political efficacy among Black Americans. Using national public opinion data from the American National Election Study from 1992 to 2014, this chapter gauges how Black Americans perceived their influence(s) on the political system during different years to determine what, if any, lasting impact Obama's presidency may have on Black political involvement and trust in the political system. The results of the public opinion analyses indicate that trust attitudes during the Obama presidency were more positive for Blacks than Whites; however, compared over the forty-year period, the results are not consistently aberrational. Subsequently, I examine the racial implications of these results for Americans’ political trust after the Obama era, especially during the early years of the Donald J. Trump presidency.

scholarly journals Political Trust as a Determinant of Volatile Vote Intentions: Separating Within- From Between-Person Effects

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 669-693
Author(s):  
Remko Voogd ◽  
Tom van der Meer ◽  
Wouter van der Brug
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Dynamic Effects ◽  
Electoral Volatility ◽  
Party Preference ◽  
Political Distrust

Abstract This article studies the oft-assumed destabilizing effect of political distrust on party preferences. We argue that there are two mechanisms that relate political trust to electoral volatility: (1) structurally low trust undermines the formation of stable party preferences and thereby stimulates volatility, and (2) declining trust drives voters, particularly supporters of parties in government, to change party preference. These rivaling mechanisms are often conflated. Using the within–between random effects approach on two extensive panel data sets (covering three different governmental periods in The Netherlands between 2006 and 2017) allows us to separate both mechanisms and estimate them simultaneously. We find evidence for both the structural and the dynamic effects of political trust on changing vote intentions.

scholarly journals Political Trust and Historical Legacy: The Effect of Varieties of Socialism

2010 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 206-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Dimitrova-Grajzl ◽  
Eszter Simon
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Young People ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Short Run ◽  
General Populations

This article, unlike the vast existing literature on political trust, focuses on trust in post-socialist countries and, more specifically, on trust of young people rather than on trust of general populations. Studying young people is important in the context of establishing democracy and the survival of democracy. The authors examine the continuous effect of socialism and stipulate that the legacy of the type of socialist regime is a major determinant of political trust in Central and Eastern European and former Soviet Union countries. Utilizing individual-level data from an institutional survey, the authors find that distinguishing between different types of socialism is instrumental in explaining political trust. Results on the former Yugoslavia, however, suggest that the effects of socialism might be temporarily overshadowed in the short run by drastic post-socialist events such as warfare. The findings have implications for policies aimed at fostering political trust in post-socialist countries and for discerning future patterns of political and social developments.

Combining Aggregate Data and Exit Polls for the Estimation of Voter Transitions

2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 296-325 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Klima ◽  
Thomas Schlesinger ◽  
Paul W. Thurner ◽  
Helmut Küchenhoff
Keyword(s):  
Market Research ◽  
R Package ◽  
Individual Data ◽  
Ecological Inference ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Voter Transition ◽  
Dirichlet Model

Our objective is the estimation of voter transitions between two consecutive parliamentary elections. Usually, such analyses have been based either on individual survey data or on aggregated data. To move beyond these methods and their respective problems, we propose the application of so-called hybrid models, which combine aggregate and individual data. We use a Bayesian approach and extend a multinomial-Dirichlet model proposed in the ecological inference literature. Our new hybrid model has been implemented in the R-package eiwild (= Ecological Inference with individual-level data). Based on extensive simulations, we are able to show that our new estimator exhibits a very good estimation performance in many realistic scenarios. Application case is the voter transition between the Bavarian Regional election and the German federal elections 2013 in the Metropolitan City of Munich. Our approach is also applicable to other areas of electoral research, market research, and epidemiology.

scholarly journals Migrant votes ‘here’ and ‘there’: Transnational electoral behavior of Turks in the Netherlands

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liza Mügge ◽  
Maria Kranendonk ◽  
Floris Vermeulen ◽  
Nermin Aydemir
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Political Attitudes ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
Labor Migrants ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Party Choice ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Attitudes And Behavior

Abstract Whether there is a trade-off between ‘here’ (country of settlement) and ‘there’ (the country of origin) is one of the key political questions and concerns regarding political attitudes and behaviors of immigrant minorities. We take this issue by the horns and study three components of political attitudes and behavior within a transnational framework among Dutch-Turkish citizens in the Netherlands: turnout, political trust and interest, and party choice. The empirical data draws on original exit polls held during the Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections at a polling station in 2014 (n = 791) and in 2015 (n = 456). We find that that gender and country of birth influence electoral participation; social class (working class background as labor migrants) influences voting behavior. While there is a trade-off for political trust and voting behavior, there is no trade-off for political interest. These findings call for a more nuanced approach to transnational political behavior that is attentive to processes of convergence between ‘here’ and ‘there’ and the diversity within migrant groups.

scholarly journals Responsiveness, Performance and Corruption: Reasons for the Decline of Political Trust

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariano Torcal ◽  
Pablo Christmann
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Political System ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
The Political ◽  
Panel Survey ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Great Recession

We test the importance of responsiveness, performance and corruption to explain the evolution of political trust in Spain between 1997 and 2019. To this end, the study analyses two longitudinal datasets, namely, a repeated cross-sectional dataset from the Spanish samples of Eurobarometer and an individual-level panel survey conducted during a period of economic recovery in 2015. The study finds that perceptions about political corruption and responsiveness matter greatly in shaping political trust and to a lesser extent economic performance. Although the Great Recession is likely responsible for the sharp decline in trust towards political parties and the parliament between 2008 and 2012, the analysis suggests that trust in representative institutions remains low even after the Recession because of a series of devastating corruption incidents and a perceived lack of responsiveness of the political system. On the other hand, the study finds indications that trust in the judicial system might have been mainly affected by perceptions of corruption.

All the prime minister’s glory? Leader effects and accountability of prime ministers in parliamentary elections

Politics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 444-459
Author(s):  
Jan Berz
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
German State ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Prime Ministers ◽  
Parliamentary Democracies ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Important Extension

Are prime ministers held accountable for their government’s performance? The personalisation of parliamentary elections and subsequent voting behaviour based on the personality of party leaders questions the accountability of elected governments. In this article, I analyse the confounding of prime ministers’ leader effects by voters’ evaluation of government performance to examine whether prime ministers are held accountable for the performance of their government. I use individual-level data from British, Danish, and German elections and a natural experiment at the German state level to show that voters hold prime ministers personally accountable. The findings constitute an important extension of electoral accountability and have implications for the study of personalisation and presidentialisation in parliamentary democracies.

Ein Ende mit Schrecken – Frankreich nach den Wahlen

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (188) ◽  
pp. 495-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Syrovatka
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Political Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Economic Transformations ◽  
Crisis Of Representation ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Deep Crisis

The presidential and parliamentary elections were a political earthquake for the French political system. While the two big parties experienced massive losses of political support, the rise of new political formations took place. Emmanuel Macron is not only the youngest president of the V. Republic so far, he is also the first president not to be supported by either one of the two biggest parties. This article argues that the election results are an expression of a deep crisis of representation in France that is rooted in the economic transformations of the 1970s. The article analyses the political situation after the elections and tries to give an outlook on further political developments in France.

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