scholarly journals To what extent could water isotopic measurements help us understand model biases in the water cycle over Western Siberia

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 9807-9830 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Gryazin ◽  
C. Risi ◽  
J. Jouzel ◽  
N. Kurita ◽  
J. Worden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Global Network ◽  
Isotopic Measurements ◽  
Dry Bias

Abstract. We evaluate the isotopic composition of water vapor and precipitation simulated by the LMDZ (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-Zoom) GCM (General Circulation Model) over Siberia using several data sets: TES (Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer) and GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) satellite observations of tropospheric water vapor, GNIP (Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation) and SNIP (Siberian Network for Isotopes in Precipitation) precipitation networks, and daily, in situ measurements of water vapor and precipitation at the Kourovka site in Western Siberia. LMDZ captures the spatial, seasonal and daily variations reasonably well, but it underestimates humidity (q) in summer and overestimates δD in the vapor and precipitation in all seasons. The performance of LMDZ is put in the context of other isotopic models from the SWING2 (Stable Water Intercomparison Group phase 2) models. There is significant spread among models in the simulation of δD, and of the δD-q relationship. This confirms that δD brings additional information compared to q only. We specifically investigate the added value of water isotopic measurements to interpret the warm and dry bias featured by most GCMs over mid and high latitude continents in summer. The analysis of the slopes in δD-q diagrams and of processes controlling δD and q variations suggests that the cause of the dry bias could be either a problem in the large-scale advection transporting too much dry and warm air from the south, or too strong boundary-layer mixing. However, δD-q diagrams using the available data do not tell the full story. Additional measurements would be needed, or a more sophisticated theoretical framework would need to be developed.

scholarly journals The added value of water isotopic measurements for understanding model biases in simulating the water cycle over Western Siberia

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 4457-4503 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Gryazin ◽  
C. Risi ◽  
J. Jouzel ◽  
N. Kurita ◽  
J. Worden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Model Biases ◽  
Value Of Water ◽  
Isotopic Measurements ◽  
Dry Bias

Abstract. We evaluate the isotopic composition of water vapor and precipitation simulated by the LMDZ GCM over Siberia using several datasets: TES and GOSAT satellite observations of tropospheric water vapor, GNIP and SNIP precipitation networks, and daily, in-situ measurements of water vapor and precipitation at the Kourovka site in Western Siberia. We use δD vs. humidity diagrams to explore the complementarity of these two variables to interpret model biases in terms of the representation of processes. LMDZ captures the spatial, seasonal and daily variations reasonably well. It systematically overestimates δD in the vapor and precipitation, a bias that is most likely associated with a misrepresentation of air mass origin. The performance of LMDZ is put in the context of other isotopic models from the SWING2 models. There is significant spread among models in the simulation of δD, and of the δD vs. humidity relationship. This confirms that δD brings additional information compared to humidity only. We specifically investigate the added value of water isotopic measurements to interpret the warm and dry bias feature by most GCMs over mid and high latitude continents in summer. LMDZ simulates the strongest dry bias on days when it simulates the strongest enriched bias in δD. The analysis of the slopes in δD vs. humidity diagrams and of processes controlling δD and humidity variations suggests that the cause of the moist bias could be either a problem in the large-scale advection transporting too much dry and warm air from the south, or insufficient surface evaporation.

scholarly journals Variations of oxygen-18 in West Siberian precipitation during the last 50 yr

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 29263-29301 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Butzin ◽  
M. Werner ◽  
V. Masson-Delmotte ◽  
C. Risi ◽  
C. Frankenberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Global Network ◽  
Simulated Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Δ18o

Abstract. Global warming is associated with large increase in surface air temperature and precipitation in Siberia. Here, we apply the isotope-enhanced atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso to investigate the variability of δ18O in West Siberian precipitation and the underlying mechanisms during the last fifty years, and to assess the potential of a recently opened monitoring station in Kourovka (57.04° N, 59.55° E) to successfully track large-scale water cycle and climate change in this area. Our model is constrained to atmospheric reanalysis fields to facilitate the comparison with precipitation δ18O from observations. In Russia, annual-mean model surface temperatures agree within ±1.5 °C with climatological data, while the model tends to overestimate precipitation by 10–20 mm month−1. Simulated precipitation δ18O shows a southwest to northeast decreasing pattern. The simulated annual-mean and seasonal δ18O results are in overall good agreement with observations from 15 Russian stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation between 1970 and 2009. Annual-mean model results and measurements are highly correlated (r2~0.95) with a root mean square deviation of ±1‰. The model reproduces the seasonal variability of δ18O, which parallels the seasonal cycle of temperature, and the seasonal range from −25‰ in winter to −5‰ in summer. Analysing model results for the extended period 1960–2010, long-term increasing trends in temperature, precipitation and δ18O are detected in western Siberia. During the last 50 yr, winter temperatures have increased by 1.8 °C. Annual-mean precipitation rates have increased by 2–6 mm month−1 50 yr−1. Long-term trends of precipitation δ18O are also positive but at the detection limit (<1‰ 50 yr−1). Regional climate is characterized by strong interannual variability, which in winter is strongly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. In ECHAM5-wiso, regional temperature is the predominant factor controlling δ18O variations on interannual to decadal time scales with slopes of about 0.5‰ °C−1. Focusing on Kourovka, the simulated evolution of temperature, δ18O and, to a smaller extent, precipitation during the last fifty years is synchronous with model results averaged over entire western Siberia, suggesting that this site will be representative to monitor future isotopic changes this region.

scholarly journals Seasonality of moisture supplies to precipitation over the Third Pole: a stable water isotopic perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxin Yang ◽  
Tandong Yao
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Isotopic Composition ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Potential Effect ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract This study integrated isotopic composition in precipitation at 50 stations on and around the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and demonstrated the distinct seasonality of isotopic composition in precipitation across the study period. The potential effect of water vapor isotopes on precipitation isotopes is studied by comparing the station precipitation data with extensive isotopic patterns in atmospheric water vapor, revealing the close linkage between the two. The analysis of contemporary water vapor transport and potential helps confirm the different mechanisms behind precipitation isotopic compositions in different areas, as the southern TP is more closely related to large-scale atmospheric circulation such as local Hadley and summer monsoon circulations during other seasons than winter, while the northern TP is subject to the westerly prevalence and advective moisture supply and precipitation processes. The new data presented in this manuscript also enrich the current dataset for the study of precipitation isotopes in this region and together provide a valuable database for verification of the isotope-integrated general circulation model and explanation of related physical processes.

scholarly journals Stratospheric dryness: model simulations and satellite observations

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 1313-1332 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Lelieveld ◽  
C. Brühl ◽  
P. Jöckel ◽  
B. Steil ◽  
P. J. Crutzen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Mass Fluxes

Abstract. The mechanisms responsible for the extreme dryness of the stratosphere have been debated for decades. A key difficulty has been the lack of comprehensive models which are able to reproduce the observations. Here we examine results from the coupled lower-middle atmosphere chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 together with satellite observations. Our model results match observed temperatures in the tropical lower stratosphere and realistically represent the seasonal and inter-annual variability of water vapor. The model reproduces the very low water vapor mixing ratios (below 2 ppmv) periodically observed at the tropical tropopause near 100 hPa, as well as the characteristic tape recorder signal up to about 10 hPa, providing evidence that the dehydration mechanism is well-captured. Our results confirm that the entry of tropospheric air into the tropical stratosphere is forced by large-scale wave dynamics, whereas radiative cooling regionally decelerates upwelling and can even cause downwelling. Thin cirrus forms in the cold air above cumulonimbus clouds, and the associated sedimentation of ice particles between 100 and 200 hPa reduces water mass fluxes by nearly two orders of magnitude compared to air mass fluxes. Transport into the stratosphere is supported by regional net radiative heating, to a large extent in the outer tropics. During summer very deep monsoon convection over Southeast Asia, centered over Tibet, moistens the stratosphere.

Diagnosis of Subtropical Humidity Dynamics Using Tracers of Last Saturation

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (9) ◽  
pp. 3353-3367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Galewsky ◽  
Adam Sobel ◽  
Isaac Held
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Thermal Relaxation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
Dry Air ◽  
Model Match

Abstract A technique for diagnosing the mechanisms that control the humidity in a general circulation model (GCM) or observationally derived meteorological analysis dataset is presented. The technique involves defining a large number of tracers, each of which represents air that has last been saturated in a particular region of the atmosphere. The time-mean tracer fields show the typical pathways that air parcels take between one occurrence of saturation and the next. The tracers provide useful information about how different regions of the atmosphere influence the humidity elsewhere. Because saturation vapor pressure is a function only of temperature and assuming mixing ratio is conserved for unsaturated parcels, these tracer fields can also be used together with the temperature field to reconstruct the water vapor field. The technique is first applied to an idealized GCM in which the dynamics are dry and forced using the Held–Suarez thermal relaxation, but the model carries a passive waterlike tracer that is emitted at the surface and lost due to large-scale condensation with zero latent heat release and no condensate retained. The technique provides an accurate reconstruction of the simulated water vapor field. In this model, the dry air in the subtropical troposphere is produced primarily by isentropic transport and is moistened somewhat by mixing with air from lower levels, which has not been saturated since last contact with the surface. The technique is then applied to the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data from December–February (DJF) 2001/02, using the offline tracer transport model MATCH. The results show that the dryness of the subtropical troposphere is primarily controlled by isentropic transport of very dry air by midlatitude eddies and that diabatic descent from the tropical upper troposphere plays a secondary role in controlling the dryness of the subtropics.

scholarly journals Effects of Cloud Microphysics on Tropical Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes and Intraseasonal Variability

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (22) ◽  
pp. 4731-4751 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Lau ◽  
H. T. Wu ◽  
Y. C. Sud ◽  
G. K. Walker
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Hydrologic Processes ◽  
Warm Rain

Abstract The sensitivity of tropical atmospheric hydrologic processes to cloud microphysics is investigated using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model (GCM). Results show that a faster autoconversion rate leads to (a) enhanced deep convection in the climatological convective zones anchored to tropical land regions; (b) more warm rain, but less cloud over oceanic regions; and (c) an increased convective-to-stratiform rain ratio over the entire Tropics. Fewer clouds enhance longwave cooling and reduce shortwave heating in the upper troposphere, while more warm rain produces more condensation heating in the lower troposphere. This vertical differential heating destabilizes the tropical atmosphere, producing a positive feedback resulting in more rain and an enhanced atmospheric water cycle over the Tropics. The feedback is maintained via secondary circulations between convective tower and anvil regions (cold rain), and adjacent middle-to-low cloud (warm rain) regions. The lower cell is capped by horizontal divergence and maximum cloud detrainment near the freezing–melting (0°C) level, with rising motion (relative to the vertical mean) in the warm rain region connected to sinking motion in the cold rain region. The upper cell is found above the 0°C level, with induced subsidence in the warm rain and dry regions, coupled to forced ascent in the deep convection region. It is that warm rain plays an important role in regulating the time scales of convective cycles, and in altering the tropical large-scale circulation through radiative–dynamic interactions. Reduced cloud–radiation feedback due to a faster autoconversion rate results in intermittent but more energetic eastward propagating Madden–Julian oscillations (MJOs). Conversely, a slower autoconversion rate, with increased cloud radiation produces MJOs with more realistic westward-propagating transients embedded in eastward-propagating supercloud clusters. The implications of the present results on climate change and water cycle dynamics research are discussed.

scholarly journals A Gray-Radiation Aquaplanet Moist GCM. Part I: Static Stability and Eddy Scale

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (10) ◽  
pp. 2548-2566 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dargan M. W. Frierson ◽  
Isaac M. Held ◽  
Pablo Zurita-Gotor
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Surface Boundary ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Control Value

Abstract In this paper, a simplified moist general circulation model is developed and used to study changes in the atmospheric general circulation as the water vapor content of the atmosphere is altered. The key elements of the model physics are gray radiative transfer, in which water vapor and other constituents have no effect on radiative fluxes, a simple diffusive boundary layer with prognostic depth, and a mixed layer aquaplanet surface boundary condition. This GCM can be integrated stably without a convection parameterization, with large-scale condensation only, and this study focuses on this simplest version of the model. These simplifications provide a useful framework in which to focus on the interplay between latent heat release and large-scale dynamics. In this paper, the authors study the role of moisture in determining the tropospheric static stability and midlatitude eddy scale. In a companion paper, the effects of moisture on energy transports by baroclinic eddies are discussed. The authors vary a parameter in the Clausius–Clapeyron relation to control the amount of water in the atmosphere, and consider circulations ranging from the dry limit to 10 times a control value. The typical length scale of midlatitude eddies is found to be remarkably insensitive to the amount of moisture in the atmosphere in this model. The Rhines scale evaluated at the latitude of the maximum eddy kinetic energy fits the model results for the eddy scale well. Moist convection is important in determining the extratropical lapse rate, and the dry stability is significantly increased with increased moisture content.

scholarly journals Influence of atmospheric internal variability on the long-term Siberian water cycle during the past 2 centuries

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 497-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazuhiro Oshima ◽  
Koto Ogata ◽  
Hotaek Park ◽  
Yoshihiro Tachibana
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Past ◽  
Term Variation ◽  
East West

Abstract. River discharges from Siberia are a large source of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean, whereas the cause of the long-term variation in Siberian discharges is still unclear. The observed river discharges of the Lena in the east and the Ob in the west indicated different relationships in each of the epochs during the past 7 decades. The correlations between the two river discharges were negative during the 1980s to mid-1990s, positive during the mid-1950s to 1960s, and became weak after the mid-1990s. More long-term records of tree-ring-reconstructed discharges have also shown differences in the correlations in each of the epochs. It is noteworthy that the correlations obtained from the reconstructions tend to be negative during the past 2 centuries. Such tendency has also been obtained from precipitations in observations, and in simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and fully coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs conducted for the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. The AGCM control simulation further demonstrated that an east–west seesaw pattern of summertime large-scale atmospheric circulation frequently emerges over Siberia as an atmospheric internal variability. This results in an opposite anomaly of precipitation over the Lena and Ob and the negative correlation. Consequently, the summertime atmospheric internal variability in the east–west seesaw pattern over Siberia is a key factor influencing the long-term variation in precipitation and river discharge, i.e., the water cycle in this region.

scholarly journals Variations of oxygen-18 in West Siberian precipitation during the last 50 years

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 5853-5869 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Butzin ◽  
M. Werner ◽  
V. Masson-Delmotte ◽  
C. Risi ◽  
C. Frankenberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Global Network ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Δ18o

Abstract. Global warming is associated with large increases in surface air temperature in Siberia. Here, we apply the isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso to explore the potential of water isotope measurements at a recently opened monitoring station in Kourovka (57.04° N, 59.55° E) in order to successfully trace climate change in western Siberia. Our model is constrained to atmospheric reanalysis fields for the period 1957–2013 to facilitate the comparison with observations of δD in total column water vapour from the GOSAT satellite, and with precipitation δ18O measurements from 15 Russian stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation. The model captures the observed Russian climate within reasonable error margins, and displays the observed isotopic gradients associated with increasing continentality and decreasing meridional temperatures. The model also reproduces the observed seasonal cycle of δ18O, which parallels the seasonal cycle of temperature and ranges from −25 ‰ in winter to −5 ‰ in summer. Investigating West Siberian climate and precipitation δ18O variability during the last 50 years, we find long-term increasing trends in temperature and δ18O, while precipitation trends are uncertain. During the last 50 years, winter temperatures have increased by 1.7 °C. The simulated long-term increase of precipitation δ18O is at the detection limit (<1 ‰ per 50 years) but significant. West Siberian climate is characterized by strong interannual variability, which in winter is strongly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. In winter, regional temperature is the predominant factor controlling δ18O variations on interannual to decadal timescales with a slope of about 0.5 ‰ °C−1. In summer, the interannual variability of δ18O can be attributed to short-term, regional-scale processes such as evaporation and convective precipitation. This finding suggests that precipitation δ18O has the potential to reveal hydrometeorological regime shifts in western Siberia which are otherwise difficult to identify. Focusing on Kourovka, the simulated evolution of temperature, δ18O and, to a smaller extent, precipitation during the last 50 years is synchronous with model results averaged over all of western Siberia, suggesting that this site will be representative to monitor future isotopic changes in the entire region.

Modeling Water Vapor and Clouds as Passive Tracers in an Idealized GCM

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 775-786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Ming ◽  
Isaac M. Held
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Water Vapor Pressure ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Cloud Fraction

This paper introduces an idealized general circulation model (GCM) in which water vapor and clouds are tracked as tracers, but are not allowed to affect circulation through either latent heat release or cloud radiative effects. The cloud scheme includes an explicit treatment of cloud microphysics and diagnoses cloud fraction from a prescribed subgrid distribution of total water. The model is capable of qualitatively capturing many large-scale features of water vapor and cloud distributions outside of the boundary layer and deep tropics. The subtropical dry zones, midlatitude storm tracks, and upper-tropospheric cirrus are simulated reasonably well. The inclusion of cloud microphysics (namely rain re-evaporation) has a modest but significant effect of moistening the lower troposphere in this model. When being subjected to a uniform fractional increase of saturated water vapor pressure, the model produces little change in cloud fraction. A more realistic perturbation, which considers the nonlinearity of the Clausius–Clapeyron relation and spatial structure of CO2-induced warming, results in a substantial reduction in the free-tropospheric cloud fraction. This is reconciled with an increase of relative humidity by analyzing the probability distributions of both quantities, and may help explain partly similar decreases in cloud fraction in full GCMs. The model provides a means to isolate individual processes or model components for studying their influences on cloud simulation in the extratropical free troposphere.

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