scholarly journals The natural oscillations in stratospheric ozone observed by the GROMOS microwave radiometer at the NDACC station Bern

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (16) ◽  
pp. 10455-10467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorena Moreira ◽  
Klemens Hocke ◽  
Francisco Navas-Guzmán ◽  
Ellen Eckert ◽  
Thomas von Clarmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Natural Oscillations ◽  
Ozone Variations ◽  
Middle Stratosphere

Abstract. A multilinear parametric regression analysis was performed to assess the seasonal and interannual variations of stratospheric ozone profiles from the GROMOS (GROund-based Millimeter-wave Ozone Spectrometer) microwave radiometer at Bern, Switzerland (46.95° N, 7.44° E; 577 m). GROMOS takes part in the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). The study covers the stratosphere from 50 to 0.5 hPa (from 21 to 53 km) and extends over the period from January 1997 to January 2015. The natural variability was fitted during the regression analysis through the annual and semi-annual oscillations (AO, SAO), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the solar activity cycle. Seasonal ozone variations mainly appear as an annual cycle in the middle and upper stratosphere and a semi-annual cycle in the upper stratosphere. Regarding the interannual variations, they are primarily present in the lower and middle stratosphere. In the lower and middle stratosphere, ozone variations are controlled predominantly by transport processes, due to the long lifetime of ozone, whereas in the upper stratosphere its lifetime is relatively short and ozone is controlled mainly by photochemistry. The present study shows agreement in the observed naturally induced ozone signatures with other studies. Further, we present an overview of the possible causes of the effects observed in stratospheric ozone due to natural oscillations at a northern midlatitude station. For instance regarding the SAO, we find that polar winter stratopause warmings contribute to the strength of this oscillation since these temperature enhancements lead to a reduction in upper stratospheric ozone. We have detected a strong peak amplitude of about 5 % for the solar cycle in lower stratospheric ozone for our 1.5 cycles of solar activity. Though the 11-year ozone oscillation above Bern is in phase with the solar cycle, we suppose that the strong amplitude is partly due to meteorological disturbances and associated ozone anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Further, our observational study gave the result that ozone above Bern is anti-correlated with the ENSO phenomenon in the lower stratosphere and correlated in the middle stratosphere.

scholarly journals The natural oscillations in stratospheric ozone observed by the GROMOS microwave radiometer at the NDACC station Bern

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorena Moreira ◽  
Klemens Hocke ◽  
Francisco Navas-Guzmán ◽  
Ellen Eckert ◽  
Thomas von Clarmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Natural Oscillations ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Ozone Variations ◽  
Middle Stratosphere

Abstract. A multilinear parametric regression analysis was performed to assess the seasonal and inter-annual variations of stratospheric ozone profiles from the GROMOS (GROund-based Millimeter-wave Ozone Spectrometer) microwave radiometer at Bern, Switzerland (46.95°N, 7.44°E, 577 m). GROMOS takes part in the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). The study covers the stratosphere from 50 to 0.5 hPa (from 21 to 53 km) and extends over the period from January 1997 to January 2015. The natural variability was fitted during the regression analysis through the annual and semi-annual oscillations (AO, SAO), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the solar activity cycle. Seasonal ozone variations mainly appear as an annual cycle in the middle and upper stratosphere and a semi-annual cycle in the upper stratosphere. Regarding the inter-annual variations, they are primarily present in the lower and middle stratosphere. In the lower and middle stratosphere ozone variations are controlled predominantly by transport processes, due to the long lifetime of ozone whereas in the upper stratosphere its lifetime is relatively short and ozone is controlled mainly by photochemistry. The present study shows agreement in the observed naturally induced ozone signatures with other studies. Further, we present an overview of the possible causes of the effects observed in stratospheric ozone due to natural oscillations at a northern mid-latitude station. For instance regarding the SAO, we find that polar winter stratopause warmings contribute to the strength of this oscillation since these temperature enhancements lead to a reduction in upper stratospheric ozone. We have detected a strong peak amplitude of about 5% for the solar cycle in lower stratospheric ozone for our 1.5 cycles of solar activity. Though the 11-year ozone oscillation above Bern is in phase with the solar cycle, we suppose that the strong amplitude is partly due to meteorological disturbances and associated ozone anomalies in the Northern hemisphere. Further, our observational study gave the result that ozone above Bern is anti-correlated to the ENSO phenomenon in the lower stratosphere and correlated in the middle stratosphere.

scholarly journals On the solar cycle dependence of winds and planetary waves as seen from mid-latitude D1 LF mesopause region wind measurements

1998 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 1534-1543 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Jacobi
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Multiple Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Prevailing Wind ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Wind Measurements

Abstract. At the Collm Observatory of the University of Leipzig LF D1 low-frequency total reflection night-time wind measurements have been carried out continuously for more than two decades. Using a multiple regression analysis to derive prevailing winds, tides and the quasi-2-day wave from the half-hourly mean values of the horizontal wind components, monthly mean values of mesopause wind parameters are obtained that can be analysed with respect to long-term trends and influences of solar variability. The response of the prevailing wind to the 11-year solar cycle differs throughout the year. While in winter no significant correlation between the zonal prevailing wind and solar activity is found, in spring and summer a negative correlation between the TWC can be seen from the measurements. This is connected with stronger vertical gradients of the zonal prevailing wind during solar maximum than during solar minimum. Since the amplitude of the quasi-2-day wave is dependent on the zonal mean wind vertical gradient, this is connected with a positive correlation between solar activity and quasi-two-day wave activity.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics · Middle atmosphere dynamics Multiple regression analysis Quasi-2-day wave

scholarly journals Dynamics of ozone layer under Serbia and solar activity: Previous statement

2008 ◽  
Vol 88 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-78
Author(s):  
Vladan Ducic ◽  
Jugoslav Nikolic
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Ozone Concentration ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Ozone Layer ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Absolute Minimum ◽  
Natural Factors ◽  
Previous Statement

The aim of this paper is to identify ozone layer dynamics under Serbian area, as well as possible relations of change in stratospheric ozone concentration with some parameters of solar activity. During the period 1979-2005, the statistical decrease of ozone concentration was noticed under Serbian territory cumulatively for 24.5 DU (7.2%), apropos 9.4 DU (2.8%) by decade. These changes are consistent with the changes in surrounding countries. From absolute minimum 1993, flexible trend of ozone layer pentad values validate hypotheses of its recovery. Correspondence of ozone thickness extreme period with Wolf's number and with the greatest volcanic eruptions shows that interannual variations of stratospheric ozone concentration are still in the function of natural factors above all, as are solar and volcanic activities. Investigation of larger number solar activity parameters shows statistically important antiphase synchronous between the number of polar faculae on the Sun and stratospheric ozone dynamics under Serbia. Respecting that relation between these two features until now isn't depicted, some possible causal mechanisms are proposed.

scholarly journals Investigation of the Vertical Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle on Ozone Using SBUV and Antarctic Ground-Based Measurements and CMIP6 Forcing Data

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 873 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asen Grytsai ◽  
Oleksandr Evtushevsky ◽  
Andrew Klekociuk ◽  
Gennadi Milinevsky ◽  
Yuri Yampolsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Wavelet Transforms ◽  
Spectral Power ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ultra Violet ◽  
Period Range ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Middle Stratosphere

The 11-year solar activity cycle in the vertical ozone distribution over the Antarctic station Faraday/Vernadsky in the Antarctic Peninsula region (65.25° S, 64.27° W) was analyzed using the Solar Backscatter Ultra Violet (SBUV) radiometer data Version 8.6 Merged Ozone Data Sets (MOD) over the 40-year period 1979–2018. The SBUV MOD ozone profiles are presented as partial column ozone in layers with approximately 3-km altitude increments from the surface to the lower mesosphere (1000–0.1 hPa, or 0–64 km). Periodicities in the ozone time series of the layer data were studied using wavelet transforms. A statistically significant signal with a quasi-11-year period consistent with solar activity forcing was found in the lower–middle stratosphere at 22–31 km in ozone over Faraday/Vernadsky, although signals with similar periods were not significant in the total column measurements made by the Dobson spectrophotometer at the site. For comparison with other latitudinal zones, the relative contribution of the wavelet spectral power of the quasi-11-year periods to the 2–33-year period range on the global scale was estimated. While a significant solar activity signal exists in the tropical lower and upper stratosphere and in the lower mesosphere in SBUV MOD, we did not find evidence of similar signals in the ozone forcing data for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In the extratropical lower–middle stratosphere and lower mesosphere, there is a strong hemispheric asymmetry in solar activity–ozone response, which is dominant in the Southern Hemisphere. In general, the results are consistent with other studies and highlight the sensitivity of ozone in the lower–middle stratosphere over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the 11-year solar cycle.

Prominences and Solar Activity

1979 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 357-372
Author(s):  
Z. Švestka
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
List Type ◽  
Type Number ◽  
Flare Loops ◽  
Filament Activation

The following subjects were discussed:(1)Filament activation(2)Post-flare loops.(3)Surges and sprays.(4)Coronal transients.(5)Disk vs. limb observations.(6)Solar cycle variations of prominence occurrence.(7)Active prominences patrol service.Of all these items, (1) and (2) were discussed in most detail and we also pay most attention to them in this report. Items (3) and (4) did not bring anything new when compared with the earlier invited presentations given by RUST and ZIRIN and therefore, we omit them.

Regression Analysis of Sunspot Numbers for the Solar Cycle 24 in Comparison to Previous Three Cycles

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 477-483
Author(s):  
Debojyoti Halder
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Sunspot Numbers ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Current Cycle ◽  
Cycle 24

Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun which appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. Sunspot populations usually rise fast but fall more slowly when observed for any particular solar cycle. The sunspot numbers for the current cycle 24 and the previous three cycles have been plotted for duration of first four years for each of them. It appears that the value of peak sunspot number for solar cycle 24 is smaller than the three preceding cycles. When regression analysis is made it exhibits a trend of slow rising phase of the cycle 24 compared to previous three cycles. Our analysis further shows that cycle 24 is approaching to a longer-period but with smaller occurrences of sunspot number.

scholarly journals On the Prediction of Solar Cycles

Solar Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 296 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Courtillot ◽  
F. Lopes ◽  
J. L. Le Mouël
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Transfer Function ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Activity Cycle ◽  
Solar Activity Cycle ◽  
Planetary Motion ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Jovian Planets

AbstractThis article deals with the prediction of the upcoming solar activity cycle, Solar Cycle 25. We propose that astronomical ephemeris, specifically taken from the catalogs of aphelia of the four Jovian planets, could be drivers of variations in solar activity, represented by the series of sunspot numbers (SSN) from 1749 to 2020. We use singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to associate components with similar periods in the ephemeris and SSN. We determine the transfer function between the two data sets. We improve the match in successive steps: first with Jupiter only, then with the four Jovian planets and finally including commensurable periods of pairs and pairs of pairs of the Jovian planets (following Mörth and Schlamminger in Planetary Motion, Sunspots and Climate, Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, 193, 1979). The transfer function can be applied to the ephemeris to predict future cycles. We test this with success using the “hindcast prediction” of Solar Cycles 21 to 24, using only data preceding these cycles, and by analyzing separately two 130 and 140 year-long halves of the original series. We conclude with a prediction of Solar Cycle 25 that can be compared to a dozen predictions by other authors: the maximum would occur in 2026.2 (± 1 yr) and reach an amplitude of 97.6 (± 7.8), similar to that of Solar Cycle 24, therefore sketching a new “Modern minimum”, following the Dalton and Gleissberg minima.

Length of the Solar Cycle: An Indicator of Solar Activity Closely Associated with Climate

Science ◽  
1991 ◽  
Vol 254 (5032) ◽  
pp. 698-700 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. FRIIS-CHRISTENSEN ◽  
K. LASSEN
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle

Middle Atmosphere Temperature Changes Derived from SABER Observations during 2002-2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
X. R. Zhao ◽  
Z. Sheng ◽  
H. Q. Shi ◽  
L. B. Weng ◽  
Y. He
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Recovery Period ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Atmosphere Temperature ◽  
Temperature Responses

AbstractUsing temperature data measured by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument from February 2002 to March 2020, the temperature linear trend and temperature responses to the solar cycle (SC), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were investigated from 20 km to 110 km for the latitude range of 50°S-50°N. A four-component harmonic fit was used to remove the seasonal variation from the observed monthly temperature series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) was applied to analyze the linear trend, SC, QBO, and ENSO terms. In this study, the near-global mean temperature shows consistent cooling trends throughout the entire middle atmosphere, ranging from -0.28 to -0.97 K/decade. Additionally, it shows positive responses to the solar cycle, varying from -0.05 to 4.53 K/100sfu. A solar temperature response boundary between 50°S and 50°N is given, above which the atmospheric temperature is strongly affected by solar activity. The boundary penetrates deep below the stratopause to ~ 42 km over the tropical region and rises to higher altitudes with latitude. Temperature responses to the QBO and ENSO can be observed up to the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere. In the equatorial region, 40%-70% of the total variance is explained by QBO signals in the stratosphere and 30%-50% is explained by the solar signal in the upper middle atmosphere. Our results, obtained from 18-year SABER observations, are expected to be an updated reliable estimation of the middle atmosphere temperature variability for the stratospheric ozone recovery period.

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