scholarly journals How reliable are CMIP5 models in simulating dust optical depth?

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (16) ◽  
pp. 12491-12510 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bing Pu ◽  
Paul Ginoux
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Optical Depth ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Dust Emission ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Cmip5 Models

Abstract. Dust aerosol plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative and energy balances. Biases in dust modeling may result in biases in simulating global energy budget and regional climate. It is thus very important to understand how well dust is simulated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Here seven CMIP5 models using interactive dust emission schemes are examined against satellite-derived dust optical depth (DOD) during 2004–2016. It is found that multi-model mean can largely capture the global spatial pattern and zonal mean of DOD over land in present-day climatology in MAM and JJA. Global mean land DOD is underestimated by −25.2 % in MAM to −6.4 % in DJF. While seasonal cycle, magnitude, and spatial pattern are generally captured by the multi-model mean over major dust source regions such as North Africa and the Middle East, these variables are not so well represented by most of the models in South Africa and Australia. Interannual variations in DOD are not captured by most of the models or by the multi-model mean. Models also do not capture the observed connections between DOD and local controlling factors such as surface wind speed, bareness, and precipitation. The constraints from surface bareness are largely underestimated while the influences of surface wind and precipitation are overestimated. Projections of DOD change in the late half of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario in which the multi-model mean is compared with that projected by a regression model. Despite the uncertainties associated with both projections, results show some similarities between the two, e.g., DOD pattern over North Africa in DJF and JJA, an increase in DOD in the central Arabian Peninsula in all seasons, and a decrease over northern China from MAM to SON.

scholarly journals How reliable are CMIP5 models in simulating dust optical depth?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bing Pu ◽  
Paul Ginoux
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Optical Depth ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Dust Emission ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Cmip5 Models

Abstract. Dust aerosol plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative and energy balances. Biases in dust modeling may result in biases in simulating global energy budget and regional climate. It is thus very important to understand how well dust is simulated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Here seven CMIP5 models using interactive dust emission schemes are examined against satellite derived dust optical depth (DOD) during 2004–2016. It is found that multi-model mean can largely capture the global spatial pattern and zonal mean of DOD over land in present-day climatology in MAM and JJA. Global mean land DOD is underestimated by −25.2 % in MAM to −6.4 % in DJF. While seasonal cycle, magnitude, and spatial pattern are generally captured by multi-model mean over major dust source regions such as North Africa and the Middle East, these variables are not so well represented by most of the models in South Africa and Australia. Interannual variations of DOD are neither captured by most of the models nor by multi-model mean. Models also do not capture the observed connections between DOD and local controlling factors such as surface wind speed, bareness, and precipitation. The constraints from surface bareness are largely underestimated while the influences of surface wind and precipitation are overestimated. Projections of DOD change in the late half of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario by multi-model mean is compared with those projected by a regression model. Despite the uncertainties associated with both projections, results show some similarities between the two, e.g., DOD pattern over North Africa in DJF and JJA, an increase of DOD in the Arabian Peninsula in all seasons, and a decrease over northern China from MAM to SON.

scholarly journals Southern Ocean Wind Stress in CMIP5 Models: Role of Wind Fluctuations

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 1209-1226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xia Lin ◽  
Xiaoming Zhai ◽  
Zhaomin Wang ◽  
David R. Munday
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Surface Wind Stress ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
The Mean

AbstractThe Southern Ocean (SO) surface wind stress is a major atmospheric forcing for driving the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the global overturning circulation. Here the effects of wind fluctuations at different time scales on SO wind stress in 18 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are investigated. It is found that including wind fluctuations, especially on time scales associated with synoptic storms, in the stress calculation strongly enhances the mean strength, modulates the seasonal cycle, and significantly amplifies the trends of SO wind stress. In 11 out of the 18 CMIP5 models, the SO wind stress has strengthened significantly over the period of 1960–2005. Among them, the strengthening trend of SO wind stress in one CMIP5 model is due to the increase in the intensity of wind fluctuations, while in all the other 10 models the strengthening trend is due to the increasing strength of the mean westerly wind. These discrepancies in SO wind stress trend in CMIP5 models may explain some of the diverging behaviors in the model-simulated SO circulation. Our results suggest that to reduce the uncertainty in SO responses to wind stress changes in the coupled models, both the mean wind and wind fluctuations need to be better simulated.

scholarly journals The spatial distribution of mineral dust and its shortwave radiative forcing over North Africa: modeling sensitivities to dust emissions and aerosol size treatments

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (18) ◽  
pp. 8821-8838 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Zhao ◽  
X. Liu ◽  
L. R. Leung ◽  
B. Johnson ◽  
S. A. McFarlane ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Africa ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Mineral Dust ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Dust Emission ◽  
Radiative Properties ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Dust Particles ◽  
Dust Emissions ◽  
Sahel Region

Abstract. A fully coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model (WRF-Chem) is applied to simulate mineral dust and its shortwave (SW) radiative forcing over North Africa. Two dust emission schemes (GOCART and DUSTRAN) and two aerosol models (MADE/SORGAM and MOSAIC) are adopted in simulations to investigate the modeling sensitivities to dust emissions and aerosol size treatments. The modeled size distribution and spatial variability of mineral dust and its radiative properties are evaluated using measurements (ground-based, aircraft, and satellites) during the AMMA SOP0 campaign from 6 January to 3 February of 2006 (the SOP0 period) over North Africa. Two dust emission schemes generally simulate similar spatial distributions and temporal evolutions of dust emissions. Simulations using the GOCART scheme with different initial (emitted) dust size distributions require ~40% difference in total emitted dust mass to produce similar SW radiative forcing of dust over the Sahel region. The modal approach of MADE/SORGAM retains 25% more fine dust particles (radius<1.25 μm) but 8% less coarse dust particles (radius>1.25 μm) than the sectional approach of MOSAIC in simulations using the same size-resolved dust emissions. Consequently, MADE/SORGAM simulates 11% higher AOD, up to 13% lower SW dust heating rate, and 15% larger (more negative) SW dust radiative forcing at the surface than MOSAIC over the Sahel region. In the daytime of the SOP0 period, the model simulations show that the mineral dust heats the lower atmosphere with an average rate of 0.8 ± 0.5 K day−1 over the Niamey vicinity and 0.5 ± 0.2 K day−1 over North Africa and reduces the downwelling SW radiation at the surface by up to 58 W m−2 with an average of 22 W m−2 over North Africa. This highlights the importance of including dust radiative impact in understanding the regional climate of North Africa. When compared to the available measurements, the WRF-Chem simulations can generally capture the measured features of mineral dust and its radiative properties over North Africa, suggesting that the model is suitable for more extensive simulations of dust impact on regional climate over North Africa.

scholarly journals Estimating the maritime component of aerosol optical depth and its dependency on surface wind speed using satellite data

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (14) ◽  
pp. 6711-6720 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Lehahn ◽  
I. Koren ◽  
E. Boss ◽  
Y. Ben-Ami ◽  
O. Altaratz
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Aerosol Optical Depth ◽  
Optical Depth ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Marine Aerosol ◽  
Wind Intensity

Abstract. Six years (2003–2008) of satellite measurements of aerosol parameters from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and surface wind speeds from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E), and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), are used to provide a comprehensive perspective on the link between surface wind speed and marine aerosol optical depth over tropical and subtropical oceanic regions. A systematic comparison between the satellite derived fields in these regions allows to: (i) separate the relative contribution of wind-induced marine aerosol to the aerosol optical depth; (ii) extract an empirical linear equation linking coarse marine aerosol optical depth and wind intensity; and (iii) identify a time scale for correlating marine aerosol optical depth and surface wind speed. The contribution of wind induced marine aerosol to aerosol optical depth is found to be dominated by the coarse mode elements. When wind intensity exceeds 4 m/s, coarse marine aerosol optical depth is linearly correlated with the surface wind speed, with a remarkably consistent slope of 0.009±0.002 s/m. A detailed time scale analysis shows that the linear correlation between the fields is well kept within a 12 h time frame, while sharply decreasing when the time lag between measurements is longer. The background aerosol optical depth, associated with aerosols that are not produced in-situ through wind driven processes, can be used for estimating the contributions of terrestrial and biogenic marine aerosol to over-ocean satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depth.

scholarly journals Climate Extremes over the Arabian Peninsula Using RegCM4 for Present Conditions Forced by Several CMIP5 Models

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Almazroui
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

This paper investigates the temperature and precipitation extremes over the Arabian Peninsula using data from the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and ERA–Interim reanalysis data. Indices of extremes are calculated using daily temperature and precipitation data at 27 meteorological stations located across Saudi Arabia in line with the suggested procedure from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for the present climate (1986–2005) using 1981–2000 as the reference period. The results show that RegCM4 accurately captures the main features of temperature extremes found in surface observations. The results also show that RegCM4 with the CLM land–surface scheme performs better in the simulation of precipitation and minimum temperature, while the BATS scheme is better than CLM in simulating maximum temperature. Among the three CMIP5 models, the two best performing models are found to accurately reproduce the observations in calculating the extreme indices, while the other is not so successful. The reason for the good performance by these two models is that they successfully capture the circulation patterns and the humidity fields, which in turn influence the temperature and precipitation patterns that determine the extremes over the study region.

scholarly journals Improved Simulation of Regional Climate by Global Models with Higher Resolution: Skill Scores Correlated with Grid Length*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (15) ◽  
pp. 5985-6000 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. G. Watterson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
High Resolution Model ◽  
Grid Length

Abstract The current generation of climate models, as represented by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), has previously been assessed as having more skill in simulating the observed climate than the previous ensemble from phase 3 of CMIP (CMIP3). Furthermore, the skill of models in reproducing seasonal means of precipitation, temperature, and pressure from two observational datasets, quantified by the nondimensional Arcsin–Mielke skill score, appeared to be influenced by model resolution. The analysis is extended to 42 CMIP5 and 24 CMIP3 models. For the combined skill scores for six continents, averaged over the three variables and four seasons, the correlation with model grid length in the 66-model ensemble is −0.73. Focusing on the comparison with ERA-Interim data at higher resolution and with greater regional detail, correlations are nearly as strong for scores over the ocean domain as for land. For the global domain (excluding the Antarctic cap), the correlation of the overall skill score with grid length is −0.61, and it is nearly as strong for each variable. For most tests the improved averaged score of CMIP5 models relative to those from CMIP3 is largely consistent with their increased resolution. However, the improvement for precipitation and the correlations with length are both smaller if rmse is used as a metric. They are smaller again using the GPCP observational data, as the regional detail from a high-resolution model can lead to larger differences when compared to relatively smooth observational fields.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic Decline of African Dust inferred from Insights From the Holocene Records and Beyond: are dust purely  natural?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianle Yuan ◽  
Hongbin Yu ◽  
Mian Chin ◽  
Lorraine Remer ◽  
David McGee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Wind ◽  
Dust Emission ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Dust Source ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
African Dust ◽  
Source Regions ◽  
The Relationship

&lt;p&gt;African dust exhibits strong variability on a range of time scales. Here we show that the interhemispheric contrast in Atlantic SST (ICAS) drives African dust variability at decadal to millennial timescales, and the strong anthropogenic increase of the ICAS in the future will decrease African dust loading to a level never seen during the Holocene. We provide a physical framework to understand the relationship between the ICAS and African dust activity: positive ICAS anomalies push the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) northward and decrease surface wind speed over African dust source regions, which reduces dust emission and transport. It provides a unified framework for and is consistent with relationships in the literature. We find strong observational and proxy&amp;#8208;record support for the ICAS&amp;#8208;ITCZ&amp;#8208;dust relationship during the past 160 and 17,000 years. Model&amp;#8208;projected anthropogenic increase of the ICAS will reduce African dust by as much as 60%, which has broad consequences. We posit that dust cannot be thought of as a purely natural phenomenon.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Klingmüller ◽  
A. Pozzer ◽  
S. Metzger ◽  
G. Stenchikov ◽  
J. Lelieveld
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Aerosol Optical Depth ◽  
Optical Depth ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Dust Emissions

Abstract. We use the combined Dark Target/Deep Blue aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite product of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 to study trends over the Middle East between 2000 and 2015. Our analysis corroborates a previously identified positive AOD trend over large parts of the Middle East during the period 2001 to 2012. We relate the annual AOD to precipitation, soil moisture and surface winds to identify regions where these attributes are directly related to the AOD over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. Regarding precipitation and soil moisture, a relatively small area in and surrounding Iraq turns out to be of prime importance for the AOD over these countries. Regarding surface wind speed, the African Red Sea coastal area is relevant for the Saudi Arabian AOD. Using multiple linear regression we show that AOD trends and interannual variability can be attributed to soil moisture, precipitation and surface winds, being the main factors controlling the dust cycle. Our results confirm the dust driven AOD trends and variability, supported by a decreasing MODIS-derived Ångström exponent and a decreasing AERONET-derived fine mode fraction that accompany the AOD increase over Saudi Arabia. The positive AOD trend relates to a negative soil moisture trend. As a lower soil moisture translates into enhanced dust emissions, it is not needed to assume growing anthropogenic aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions to explain the observations. Instead, our results suggest that increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity in the last decade have promoted soil drying, leading to increased dust emissions and AOD; consequently an AOD increase is expected due to climate change.

scholarly journals Evaluation and Projections of Wind Power Resources over China for the Energy Industry Using CMIP5 Models

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 2417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akintayo T. Abolude ◽  
Wen Zhou ◽  
Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Power Density ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Energy Industry ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Current Time ◽  
Wind Power Density

The energy industry is faced with important investment and optimization choices especially for wind power as a fuel of the future, especially for China which boasts the largest installed wind power capacity. This study therefore assessed the potential status of future wind power over China using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Changes in wind power density relative to the current time period 1981–2005 were then analyzed using near-surface wind speeds extrapolated to hub-height of 90 m above ground level. The results showed relatively modest differences between the models and reanalysis. The majority of the models showed any two of location, shape, and size agreement for peak areas albeit models BCC-CSM-1-1-M, BNU-ESM, and CanESM2 tended to overestimate wind speed by up to 2.5 m/s. The multi-model ensemble mean performed better than most individual models in representing the wind characteristics over the study area. Future changes in wind power density showed an increase (decrease) over the coastal areas of the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal (areas along the 30°–40° N belt). In all, the changes were not significant enough to neither warrant a move away from wind energy nor threaten considerably the marketability and profitability under the present warming scenario rate.

Changes in TOA SW Fluxes over Marine Clouds When Estimated via Semi-Physical Angular Distribution Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Tornow ◽  
C. Domenech ◽  
J. N. S. Cole ◽  
N. Madenach ◽  
J. Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Angular Distribution ◽  
Optical Depth ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Cloud Water ◽  
Effective Radius ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Radiative Fluxes ◽  
Cloud Optical Depth ◽  
Aerosol Indirect Effects

AbstractTop-of-atmosphere (TOA) shortwave (SW) angular distribution models (ADMs) approximate – per angular direction of an imagined upward hemisphere – the intensity of sunlight scattered back from a specific Earth-atmosphere scene. ADMs are, thus, critical when converting satellite-borne broadband radiometry into estimated radiative fluxes. This paper applies a set of newly developed ADMs with a more refined scene definition and demonstrates tenable changes in estimated fluxes compared to currently operational ADMs. Newly developed ADMs use a semi-physical framework to consider cloud-top effective radius, , and above-cloud water vapor, ACWV, in addition to accounting for surface wind speed and clouds’ phase, fraction, and optical depth. In effect, instantaneous TOA SWfluxes for marine liquid-phase clouds had the largest flux differences (of up to 25 W m−2) for lower solar zenith angles and cloud optical depth greater than 10 due to extremes in or ACWV. In regions where clouds had persistently extreme levels of (here mostly for <7μm and >15μm) or ACWV, instantaneous fluxes estimated from Aqua, Terra, and Meteosat 8 and 9 satellites using the two ADMs differed systematically, resulting in significant deviations in daily mean fluxes (up to ±10 W m−2) and monthly mean fluxes (up to ±5 W m−2). Flux estimates using newly developed, semi-physical ADMs may contribute to a better understanding of solar fluxes over low-level clouds. It remains to be seen whether aerosol indirect effects are impacted by these updates.

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