Production and transport mechanisms of NO in observations and models

Abstract. A reservoir of Nitric Oxide (NO) in the lower thermosphere efficiently cools the atmosphere after periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity. Transport from this reservoir to the stratosphere within the winter polar vortex allows NO to deplete ozone levels and thereby affect the middle atmospheric heat budget. As more climate models resolve the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region, the need for an improved representation of NO related processes increases. This work presents a detailed comparison of NO in the Antarctic MLT region between observations made by the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) instrument onboard the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite and simulations performed by the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with Specified Dynamics (SD-WACCM). We investigate 7 years of SOFIE observations and focus on the Southern hemisphere, rather than on dynamical variability in the Northern hemisphere or a specific geomagnetic perturbed event. The morphology of the simulated NO is in agreement with observations though the long term mean is too high and the short term variability is too low. Number densities are more similar during winter, though the altitude of peak densities, which reaches between 102–106 km in WACCM and between 98–104 km in SOFIE, is most separated during winter. Using multiple linear regressions and superposed epoch analyses we investigate how well the NO production and transport are represented in the model. The impact of geomagnetic activity is shown to drive NO variations in the lower thermosphere similarly across both datasets. The dynamical transport from the lower thermosphere into the mesosphere during polar winter is found to agree very well, with a descent rate of about 2.2 km/day in the 80–110 km region in both datasets. The downward transported NO fluxes are however too low in WACCM, which is likely due to medium energy electrons and D-region chemistry that are not represented in the model.

Download Full-text

Production and transport mechanisms of NO in the polar upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere in observations and models

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-18-9075-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (12) ◽

pp. 9075-9089 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Koen Hendrickx ◽

Linda Megner ◽

Daniel R. Marsh ◽

Christine Smith-Johnsen

Keyword(s):

Geomagnetic Activity ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Heat Budget ◽

Lower Thermosphere ◽

No Production ◽

Superposed Epoch Analysis ◽

Mesosphere And Lower Thermosphere ◽

The Impact ◽

Mlt Region

Abstract. A reservoir of nitric oxide (NO) in the lower thermosphere efficiently cools the atmosphere after periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity. Transport from this reservoir to the stratosphere within the winter polar vortex allows NO to deplete ozone levels and thereby affect the middle atmospheric heat budget. As more climate models resolve the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region, the need for an improved representation of NO-related processes increases. This work presents a detailed comparison of NO in the Antarctic MLT region between observations made by the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) instrument on-board the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite and simulations performed by the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with Specified Dynamics (SD-WACCM). We investigate 8 years of SOFIE observations, covering the period 2007–2015, and focus on the Southern Hemisphere (SH), rather than on dynamical variability in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) or a specific geomagnetic perturbed event. The morphology of the simulated NO is in agreement with observations though the long-term mean is too high and the short-term variability is too low in the thermosphere. Number densities are more similar during winter, though the altitude of peak NO density, which reaches between 102 and 106 km in WACCM and between 98 and 104 km in SOFIE, is most separated during winter. Using multiple linear regression (MLR) and superposed epoch analysis (SEA) methods, we investigate how well the NO production and transport are represented in the model. The impact of geomagnetic activity is shown to drive NO variations in the lower thermosphere similarly across both datasets. The dynamical transport from the lower thermosphere into the mesosphere during polar winter is found to agree very well with a descent rate of about 2.2 km day−1 in the 80–110 km region in both datasets. The downward-transported NO fluxes are, however, too low in WACCM, which is likely due to medium energy electrons (MEE) and D-region ion chemistry that are not represented in the model.

Download Full-text

The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone. Part II: Analysis of global models

10.5194/acp-2017-477 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Amanda C. Maycock ◽

Katja Matthes ◽

Susann Tegtmeier ◽

Hauke Schmidt ◽

Rémi Thiéblemont ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Solar Cycle ◽

Solar Irradiance ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Temperature Response ◽

Solar Variability ◽

High Latitudes ◽

Stratospheric Temperature ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The impact of changes in incoming solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone abundances should be included in climate model simulations to fully capture the atmospheric response to solar variability. This study presents the first systematic comparison of the solar-ozone response (SOR) during the 11 year solar cycle amongst different chemistry-climate models (CCMs) and ozone databases specified in climate models that do not include chemistry. We analyse the SOR in eight CCMs from the WCRP/SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) and compare these with three ozone databases: the Bodeker Scientific database, the SPARC/AC&C database for CMIP5, and the SPARC/CCMI database for CMIP6. The results reveal substantial differences in the representation of the SOR between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ozone databases. The peak amplitude of theSOR in the upper stratosphere (1–5 hPa) decreases from 5 % to 2 % between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 databases. This difference is because the CMIP5 database was constructed from a regression model fit to satellite observations, whereas the CMIP6 database is constructed from CCM simulations, which use a spectral solar irradiance (SSI) dataset with relatively weak UV forcing. The SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database is therefore implicitly more similar to the SOR in the CCMI-1 models than to the CMIP5 ozone database, which shows a greater resemblance in amplitude and structure to the SOR in the Bodeker database. The latitudinal structure of the annual mean SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database and CCMI-1 models is considerably smoother than in the CMIP5 database, which shows strong gradients in the SOR across the midlatitudes owing to the paucity of observations at high latitudes. The SORs in the CMIP6 ozone database and in the CCMI-1 models show a strong seasonal dependence, including large meridional gradients at mid to high latitudes during winter; such seasonal variations in the SOR are not included in the CMIP5 ozone database. Sensitivity experiments with a global atmospheric model without chemistry (ECHAM6.3) are performed to assess the impact of changes in the representation of the SOR and SSI forcing between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The experiments show that the smaller amplitude of the SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database compared to CMIP5 causes a decrease in the modelled tropical stratospheric temperature response over the solar cycle of up to 0.6 K, or around 50 % of the total amplitude. The changes in the SOR explain most of the difference in the amplitude of the tropical stratospheric temperature response in the case with combined changes in SOR and SSI between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The results emphasise the importance of adequately representing the SOR in climate models to capture the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere. Since a number of limitations in the representation of the SOR in the CMIP5 ozone database have been identified, CMIP6 models without chemistry are encouraged to use the CMIP6 ozone database to capture the climate impacts of solar variability.

Download Full-text

Evaluating the Consistency between Statistically Downscaled and Global Dynamical Model Climate Change Projections

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2008jcli2379.1 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 21 (22) ◽

pp. 6052-6059 ◽

Cited By ~ 31

Author(s):

B. Timbal ◽

P. Hope ◽

S. Charles

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Statistical Downscaling ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Specific Humidity ◽

Model Output ◽

Winter Rainfall ◽

Direct Model ◽

The Impact

Abstract The consistency between rainfall projections obtained from direct climate model output and statistical downscaling is evaluated. Results are averaged across an area large enough to overcome the difference in spatial scale between these two types of projections and thus make the comparison meaningful. Undertaking the comparison using a suite of state-of-the-art coupled climate models for two forcing scenarios presents a unique opportunity to test whether statistical linkages established between large-scale predictors and local rainfall under current climate remain valid in future climatic conditions. The study focuses on the southwest corner of Western Australia, a region that has experienced recent winter rainfall declines and for which climate models project, with great consistency, further winter rainfall reductions due to global warming. Results show that as a first approximation the magnitude of the modeled rainfall decline in this region is linearly related to the model global warming (a reduction of about 9% per degree), thus linking future rainfall declines to future emission paths. Two statistical downscaling techniques are used to investigate the influence of the choice of technique on projection consistency. In addition, one of the techniques was assessed using different large-scale forcings, to investigate the impact of large-scale predictor selection. Downscaled and direct model projections are consistent across the large number of models and two scenarios considered; that is, there is no tendency for either to be biased; and only a small hint that large rainfall declines are reduced in downscaled projections. Among the two techniques, a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model provides greater consistency with climate models than an analog approach. Differences were due to the choice of the optimal combination of predictors. Thus statistically downscaled projections require careful choice of large-scale predictors in order to be consistent with physically based rainfall projections. In particular it was noted that a relative humidity moisture predictor, rather than specific humidity, was needed for downscaled projections to be consistent with direct model output projections.

Download Full-text

Interhemispheric differences of mesosphere/lower thermosphere winds and tides investigated from three whole atmosphere models and meteor radar observations

10.5194/acp-2021-142 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Gunter Stober ◽

Ales Kuchar ◽

Dimitry Pokhotelov ◽

Huixin Liu ◽

Han-Li Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

General Circulation ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Lower Thermosphere ◽

Winter Season ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Meteor Radar ◽

Radar Observations ◽

Seasonal Characteristics

Abstract. Long-term and continuous observations of mesospheric/lower thermospheric winds are rare, but they are important to investigate climatological changes at these altitudes on time scales of several years, covering a solar cycle and longer. Such long time series are a natural heritage of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere climate, and they are valuable to compare climate models or long term runs of general circulation models (GCMs). Here we present a climatological comparison of wind observations from six meteor radars at two conjugate latitudes to validate the corresponding mean winds and atmospheric diurnal and semidiurnal tides from three GCMs, namely Ground-to-Topside Model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA), Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extension (Specified Dynamics) (WACCM-X(SD)) and Upper Atmosphere ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (UA-ICON) model. Our results indicate that there are interhemispheric differences in the seasonal characteristics of the diurnal and semidiurnal tide. There also are some differences in the mean wind climatologies of the models and the observations. Our results indicate that GAIA shows a reasonable agreement with the meteor radar observations during the winter season, whereas WACCM-X(SD) shows a better agreement with the radars for the hemispheric zonal summer wind reversal, which is more consistent with the meteor radar observations. The free running UA-ICON tends to show similar winds and tides compared to WACCM-X(SD).

Download Full-text

Extending the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy v2.54) model hierarchy: the ECHAM/MESSy IdeaLized (EMIL) model setup

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-13-5229-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (11) ◽

pp. 5229-5257

Author(s):

Hella Garny ◽

Roland Walz ◽

Matthias Nützel ◽

Thomas Birner

Keyword(s):

Climate Model ◽

Polar Vortex ◽

Equilibrium Temperature ◽

Earth System ◽

Tracer Transport ◽

Dynamical Core ◽

Vortex Strength ◽

Model Hierarchy ◽

Model Setup ◽

The Impact

Abstract. As models of the Earth system grow in complexity, a need emerges to connect them with simplified systems through model hierarchies in order to improve process understanding. The Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) was developed to incorporate chemical processes into an Earth System model. It provides an environment to allow for model configurations and setups of varying complexity, and as of now the hierarchy ranges from a chemical box model to a fully coupled chemistry–climate model. Here, we present a newly implemented dry dynamical core model setup within the MESSy framework, denoted as ECHAM/MESSy IdeaLized (EMIL) model setup. EMIL is developed with the aim to provide an easily accessible idealized model setup that is consistently integrated in the MESSy model hierarchy. The implementation in MESSy further enables the utilization of diagnostic chemical tracers. The setup is achieved by the implementation of a new submodel for relaxation of temperature and horizontal winds to given background values, which replaces all other “physics” submodels in the EMIL setup. The submodel incorporates options to set the needed parameters (e.g., equilibrium temperature, relaxation time and damping coefficient) to functions used frequently in the past. This study consists of three parts. In the first part, test simulations with the EMIL model setup are shown to reproduce benchmarks provided by earlier dry dynamical core studies. In the second part, the sensitivity of the coupled troposphere–stratosphere dynamics to various modifications of the setup is studied. We find a non-linear response of the polar vortex strength to the prescribed meridional temperature gradient in the extratropical stratosphere that is indicative of a regime transition. In agreement with earlier studies, we find that the tropospheric jet moves poleward in response to the increase in the polar vortex strength but at a rate that strongly depends on the specifics of the setup. When replacing the idealized topography to generate planetary waves by mid-tropospheric wave-like heating, the response of the tropospheric jet to changes in the polar vortex is strongly damped in the free troposphere. However, near the surface, the jet shifts poleward at a higher rate than in the topographically forced simulations. Those results indicate that the wave-like heating might have to be used with care when studying troposphere–stratosphere coupling. In the third part, examples for possible applications of the model system are presented. The first example involves simulations with simplified chemistry to study the impact of dynamical variability and idealized changes on tracer transport, and the second example involves simulations of idealized monsoon circulations forced by localized heating. The ability to incorporate passive and chemically active tracers in the EMIL setup demonstrates the potential for future studies of tracer transport in the idealized dynamical model.

Download Full-text

Influence of Ocean and Atmosphere Components on Simulated Climate Sensitivities

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-12-00121.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 26 (1) ◽

pp. 231-245 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

Michael Winton ◽

Alistair Adcroft ◽

Stephen M. Griffies ◽

Robert W. Hallberg ◽

Larry W. Horowitz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Model Simulation ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Ocean Model ◽

Historical Simulation ◽

Model Version ◽

Salinity Response ◽

The Impact

Abstract The influence of alternative ocean and atmosphere subcomponents on climate model simulation of transient sensitivities is examined by comparing three GFDL climate models used for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The base model ESM2M is closely related to GFDL’s CMIP3 climate model version 2.1 (CM2.1), and makes use of a depth coordinate ocean component. The second model, ESM2G, is identical to ESM2M but makes use of an isopycnal coordinate ocean model. The authors compare the impact of this “ocean swap” with an “atmosphere swap” that produces the GFDL Climate Model version 3 (CM3) by replacing the AM2 atmospheric component with AM3 while retaining a depth coordinate ocean model. The atmosphere swap is found to have much larger influence on sensitivities of global surface temperature and Northern Hemisphere sea ice cover. The atmosphere swap also introduces a multidecadal response time scale through its indirect influence on heat uptake. Despite significant differences in their interior ocean mean states, the ESM2M and ESM2G simulations of these metrics of climate change are very similar, except for an enhanced high-latitude salinity response accompanied by temporarily advancing sea ice in ESM2G. In the ESM2G historical simulation this behavior results in the establishment of a strong halocline in the subpolar North Atlantic during the early twentieth century and an associated cooling, which are counter to observations in that region. The Atlantic meridional overturning declines comparably in all three models.

Download Full-text

Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

The Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.1017/s0021859616000654 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 155 (3) ◽

pp. 407-420 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

R. S. SILVA ◽

L. KUMAR ◽

F. SHABANI ◽

M. C. PICANÇO

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Open Field ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Current Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

Download Full-text

Selecting suitable climate models for examining future changes in soil erosion

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5713 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Neil Brannigan ◽

Donal Mullan ◽

Karel Vandaele ◽

Conor Graham ◽

Jennifer McKinley ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soil Erosion ◽

Model Selection ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Study Region ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Suitable Climate ◽

Erosion Models ◽

Soil Erosion By Water ◽

The Impact

<p>Climate models consistently project large increases in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events in the 21st century, revealing the potential for widespread impacts on various aspects of society. While the impacts on flooding receive particular attention, there is also considerable damage and associated cost for other precipitation driven phenomena, including soil erosion and muddy flooding. Multiple studies have shown that climate change will worsen the impacts of soil erosion and muddy flooding in various regions. These studies typically drive erosion models with a single model or a few models with little justification. A blind approach to climate model selection increases the risk of simulating a narrower range of possible scenarios, limiting vital information for mitigation planning and adaptation. This study provides a comprehensive methodology to efficiently select suitable climate models for simulating soil erosion and muddy flooding. For a case study region in eastern Belgium using the WEPP soil erosion model, we compare the performance of our novel methodology against other model selection methods for a future period (2081 &#8211; 2100). The main findings reveal that our novel methodology is successful in generating the widest range of future scenarios from a small number of models, when compared with other ways of selecting climate models. This approach has not previously been achieved for modelling soil erosion by water. Other precipitation-driven impact sectors may also wish to consider applying this method to assess the impact of future climatic changes, so that the worst- and best-case scenarios can be adequately prepared for.</p>

Download Full-text

Assessing Future Spatio-Temporal Changes in Crop Suitability and Planting Season over West Africa: Using the Concept of Crop-Climate Departure

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli7090102 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 (9) ◽

pp. 102 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Temitope S. Egbebiyi ◽

Chris Lennard ◽

Olivier Crespo ◽

Phillip Mukwenha ◽

Shakirudeen Lawal ◽

...

Keyword(s):

West Africa ◽

Linear Correlation ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Crop Suitability ◽

Suitable Area ◽

The Impact ◽

Planting Season

The changing climate is posing significant threats to agriculture, the most vulnerable sector, and the main source of livelihood in West Africa. This study assesses the impact of the climate-departure on the crop suitability and planting month over West Africa. We used 10 CMIP5 Global climate models bias-corrected simulations downscaled by the CORDEX regional climate model, RCA4 to drive the crop suitability model, Ecocrop. We applied the concept of the crop-climate departure (CCD) to evaluate future changes in the crop suitability and planting month for five crop types, cereals, legumes, fruits, root and tuber and horticulture over the historical and future months. Our result shows a reduction (negative linear correlation) and an expansion (positive linear correlation) in the suitable area and crop suitability index value in the Guinea-Savanna and Sahel (southern Sahel) zone, respectively. The horticulture crop was the most negatively affected with a decrease in the suitable area while cereals and legumes benefited from the expansion in suitable areas into the Sahel zone. In general, CCD would likely lead to a delay in the planting season by 2–4 months except for the orange and early planting dates by about 2–3 months for cassava. No projected changes in the planting month are observed for the plantain and pineapple which are annual crops. The study is relevant for a short and long-term adaptation option and planning for future changes in the crop suitability and planting month to improve food security in the region.

Download Full-text

Linking the uncertainty in simulated arctic ozone losses to modelling of tropical stratospheric water vapour

10.5194/acp-2018-310 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Laura Thölix ◽

Alexey Karpechko ◽

Leif Backman ◽

Rigel Kivi

Keyword(s):

Water Vapour ◽

Climate Models ◽

Polar Vortex ◽

The Arctic ◽

Ozone Loss ◽

Tropical Tropopause ◽

Water Vapour Concentration ◽

Vapour Concentration ◽

The Impact ◽

Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Stratospheric water vapor plays a key role in radiative and chemical processes, it e.g. influences the chemical ozone loss via controlling the polar stratospheric cloud formation in the polar stratosphere. The amount of water entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause differs substantially between chemistry-climate models. This is because the present-day models have difficulties in capturing the whole complexity of processes that control the water transport across the tropopause. As a result there are large differences in the stratospheric water vapour between the models. In this study we investigate the sensitivity of simulated Arctic ozone loss to the amount of water, which enters the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause. We used a chemical transport model, FinROSE-CTM, forced by ERA-Interim meteorology. The water vapour concentration in the tropical tropopause was varied between 0.5 and 1.6 times the concentration in ERA-Interim, which is similar to the range seen in chemistry climate models. The water vapour changes in the tropical tropopause led to about 1.5 and 2 ppm more water vapour in the Arctic polar vortex compared to the ERA-Interim, respectively. We found that the impact of water vapour changes on ozone loss in the Arctic polar vortex depend on the meteorological conditions. Polar stratospheric clouds form in the cold conditions within the Arctic vortex, and chlorine activation on their surface lead to ozone loss. If the cold conditions persist long enough (e.g. in 2010/11), the chlorine activation is nearly complete. In this case addition of water vapour to the stratosphere increased the formation of ICE clouds, but did not increase the chlorine activation and ozone destruction significantly. In the warm winter 2012/13 the impact of water vapour concentration on ozone loss was small, because the ozone loss was mainly NOx induced. In intermediately cold conditions, e.g. 2013/14, the effect of added water vapour was more prominent than in the other studied winters. The results show that the simulated water vapour concentration in the tropical tropopause has a significant impact on the Arctic ozone loss and deserves attention in order to improve future projections of ozone layer recovery.

Download Full-text