scholarly journals Investigation of global nitrate from the AeroCom Phase III experiment

Author(s):  
Huisheng Bian ◽  
Mian Chin ◽  
Didier A. Hauglustaine ◽  
Michael Schulz ◽  
Gunnar Myhre ◽  
...  

Abstract. An assessment of global nitrate and ammonium aerosol based on simulations from nine models participating in the AeroCom Phase III study is presented. A budget analyses was conducted to understand the typical magnitude, distribution, and diversity of the aerosols and their precursors among the models. To gain confidence on model performance, the model results were evaluated with various observations globally, including ground station measurements over North America, Europe, and East Asia for tracer concentrations and dry and wet depositions, as well as with aircraft measurements in the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes for tracer vertical distributions. Given the unique chemical and physical features of the nitrate occurrence, we further investigated the similarity and differentiation among the models by examining: (1) the pH-dependent NH3 wet deposition; (2) the nitrate formation via heterogeneous chemistry on the surface of dust and sea-salt particles; and (3) the nitrate coarse mode fraction (i.e., coarse/total). It is found that HNO3, which is simulated explicitly based on full O3–HOx–NOx–aerosol chemistry by all models, differs by up to a factor of 9 among the models in its global tropospheric burden. This partially contributes to a large difference in NO3−, whose atmospheric burden differs by up to a factor of 13. Analyses at the process level show that the large diversity in atmospheric burdens of NO3−, NH3, and NH4+ is also related to deposition processes. Wet deposition seems to be the dominant process in determining the diversity in NH3 and NH4+ lifetimes. It is critical to correctly account for contributions of heterogeneous chemical production of nitrate on dust and sea-salt, because this process overwhelmingly controls atmospheric nitrate production (typically > 80 %) and determines the coarse and fine mode distribution of nitrate aerosol.

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (21) ◽  
pp. 12911-12940 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huisheng Bian ◽  
Mian Chin ◽  
Didier A. Hauglustaine ◽  
Michael Schulz ◽  
Gunnar Myhre ◽  
...  

Abstract. An assessment of global particulate nitrate and ammonium aerosol based on simulations from nine models participating in the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) phase III study is presented. A budget analysis was conducted to understand the typical magnitude, distribution, and diversity of the aerosols and their precursors among the models. To gain confidence regarding model performance, the model results were evaluated with various observations globally, including ground station measurements over North America, Europe, and east Asia for tracer concentrations and dry and wet depositions, as well as with aircraft measurements in the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes for tracer vertical distributions. Given the unique chemical and physical features of the nitrate occurrence, we further investigated the similarity and differentiation among the models by examining (1) the pH-dependent NH3 wet deposition; (2) the nitrate formation via heterogeneous chemistry on the surface of dust and sea salt particles or thermodynamic equilibrium calculation including dust and sea salt ions; and (3) the nitrate coarse-mode fraction (i.e., coarse/total). It is found that HNO3, which is simulated explicitly based on full O3-HOx-NOx-aerosol chemistry by all models, differs by up to a factor of 9 among the models in its global tropospheric burden. This partially contributes to a large difference in NO3−, whose atmospheric burden differs by up to a factor of 13. The atmospheric burdens of NH3 and NH4+ differ by 17 and 4, respectively. Analyses at the process level show that the large diversity in atmospheric burdens of NO3−, NH3, and NH4+ is also related to deposition processes. Wet deposition seems to be the dominant process in determining the diversity in NH3 and NH4+ lifetimes. It is critical to correctly account for contributions of heterogeneous chemical production of nitrate on dust and sea salt, because this process overwhelmingly controls atmospheric nitrate production (typically > 80 %) and determines the coarse- and fine-mode distribution of nitrate aerosol.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 8709-8734
Author(s):  
Syuichi Itahashi ◽  
Baozhu Ge ◽  
Keiichi Sato ◽  
Zhe Wang ◽  
Junichi Kurokawa ◽  
...  

Abstract. Asia has attracted research attention because it has the highest anthropogenic emissions in the world, and the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) phase III was carried out to foster our understanding of the status of air quality over Asia. This study analyzed wet deposition in southeast Asian countries (Myanmar, Thailand, Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR), Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia) with the aim of providing insights into the seasonal variation of wet deposition. Southeast Asia was not fully considered in MICS-Asia phase II due to a lack of observational data; however, the analysis period of MICS-Asia III, namely the year 2010, is covered by ground observations of the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET), and the coordinated simulation domain was extended to cover these observation sites. The analyzed species are wet depositions of S (sulfate aerosol, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and sulfuric acid (H2SO4)), N (nitrate aerosol, nitrogen monoxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and nitric acid (HNO3)), and A (ammonium aerosol and ammonia (NH3)). The wet deposition simulated with seven models driven by a unified meteorological model in MICS-Asia III was used with the ensemble approach, which effectively modulates the differences in performance among models. By comparison with EANET observations, although the seven models generally captured the wet depositions of S, N, and A, there were difficulties capturing these in some cases. Considering the model performance for ambient aerosol concentrations over southeast Asia, this failure of models is considered to be related to the difficulty in capturing the precipitation in southeast Asia, especially during the dry and wet seasons. Generally, meteorological fields overestimate the precipitation during the dry season, which leads to the overestimation of wet deposition during this season. To overcome this, a precipitation-adjusted approach that scaled the modeled precipitation to the observed value was applied, and it was demonstrated that the model performance was improved. Satellite measurements were also used to adjust for precipitation data, which adequately accounted for the spatiotemporal precipitation patterns, especially in the dry season. As the statistical scores were mostly improved by this adjustment, the estimation of wet deposition with precipitation adjustment was considered to be superior. To utilize satellite measurements, the spatial distribution of wet deposition was revised. Based on this revision, it was found that Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia were upward corrected, and Myanmar, Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and the Philippines were downward-corrected; these corrections were up to ±40 %. The improved accuracy of precipitation amount was key to estimating wet deposition in this study. These results suggest that the precipitation-adjusted approach has the potential to obtain accurate estimates of wet deposition through the fusion of models and observations.


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 2835-2852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syuichi Itahashi ◽  
Keiya Yumimoto ◽  
Itsushi Uno ◽  
Hiroshi Hayami ◽  
Shin-ichi Fujita ◽  
...  

Abstract. Acidifying species in precipitation can have severe impacts on ecosystems. The chemical composition of precipitation is directly related to the amount of precipitation; accordingly, it is difficult to identify long-term variation in chemical concentrations. The ratio of the nitrate (NO3−) to non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO42−) concentration in precipitation on an equivalent basis (hereinafter, Ratio) is a useful index to investigate the relative contributions of these acidifying species. To identify the long-term record of acidifying species in precipitation over East Asia, the region with the highest emissions worldwide, we compiled ground-based observations of the chemical composition of precipitation over China, Korea, and Japan from 2001 to 2015 based on the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET). The spatial coverage was limited, but additional monitoring data for Japan, southern China, and northern China around Beijing were utilized. The period of analysis was divided into three phases: Phase I (2001–2005), Phase II (2006–2010), and Phase III (2011–2015). The behaviors of NO3− and nss-SO42− concentrations and hence the Ratio in precipitation were related to these precursors. The anthropogenic NOx and SO2 emissions and the NOx ∕ SO2 emission ratio were analyzed. Further, satellite observations of the NO2 and SO2 column density to capture the variation in emissions were applied. We found that the long-term trend in the NO3− concentration in precipitation was not related to the variation in NOx emission and the NO2 column. In comparison, the nss-SO42− concentration in precipitation over China, Korea, and Japan was partially connected to the changes in SO2 emissions from China, but the trends were not significant. The long-term trends of Ratio over China, Korea, and Japan were nearly flat during Phase I, increased significantly during Phase II, and were essentially flat again during Phase III. This variation in Ratio in East Asia clearly corresponded to the NOx ∕ SO2 emission ratio and the NO2 ∕ SO2 column ratio in China. The initial flat trend during Phase I was due to increases in both NOx and SO2 emissions in China, the significantly increasing trend during Phase II was triggered by the increase in NOx emissions and decrease in SO2 emissions in China, and the return to a flat trend during Phase III was caused by declines in both NOx and SO2 emissions in China. These results suggest that emissions in China had a significant impact not only on China but also on downwind precipitation chemistry during the 15-year period of 2001–2015. In terms of wet deposition, the NO3− wet deposition over China, Korea, and Japan did not change dramatically, but the nss-SO42− wet deposition declined over China, Korea, and Japan from Phase II to III. These declines were caused by a strong decrease in the nss-SO42− concentration in precipitation accompanied by a reduction in SO2 emission from China, which counteracted the increase in precipitation. These findings indicated that the acidity of precipitation shifted from sulfur to nitrogen.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Nelson ◽  
Urumu Tsunogai ◽  
Ding Dong ◽  
Takuya Ohyama ◽  
Daisuke D. Komatsu ◽  
...  

Abstract. Atmospheric nitrate deposition resulting from anthropogenic activities negatively affects human and environmental health. Identifying deposited nitrate that is produced locally vs. that originating from long-distance transport would help inform efforts to mitigate such impacts. However, distinguishing the relative transport distances of atmospheric nitrate in urban areas remains a major challenge since it may be produced locally and/or come from upwind regions. To address this uncertainty we assessed spatiotemporal variation in monthly weighted-average Δ17O and δ15N values of wet and dry nitrate deposition during one year at urban and rural sites along the western coast of the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido, downwind of the East Asian continent. Δ17O values of nitrate in wet deposition at the urban site mirrored those of wet and dry deposition at the rural site, ranging between ~ +22 and +30 ‰ with higher values during winter and lower values in summer, which suggests greater relative importance of oxidation of NO2 by O3 during winter and OH during summer. In contrast, Δ17O values of nitrate in dry deposition at the urban site were lower (+19–+25 ‰) and displayed less distinct seasonal variation. Furthermore, the difference between δ15N values of nitrate in wet and dry nitrate deposition was, on average, 3 ‰ greater at the urban than rural site, and Δ17O and δ15N values were correlated for both forms of deposition at both sites with the exception of dry deposition at the urban site. These results suggest that, relative to nitrate in wet deposition in urban environments and wet and dry deposition in rural environments, nitrate in dry deposition in urban environments forms from relatively greater oxidation of NO by peroxy radicals and/or oxidation of NO2 by OH. Given greater concentrations of peroxy radicals and OH in cities, these results imply that dry nitrate deposition results from local NOx emissions more so than wet deposition, which is transported longer distances. These results illustrate the value of stable isotope data for distinguishing the transport distances and reaction pathways of atmospheric nitrate pollution.


2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (14) ◽  
pp. 1828-1836 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Pellegrini ◽  
Massimiliano Copetti ◽  
Maria Pia Sormani ◽  
Francesca Bovis ◽  
Carl de Moor ◽  
...  

Background: There is an unmet need for precise methods estimating disease prognosis in multiple sclerosis (MS). Objective: Using advanced statistical modeling, we assessed the prognostic value of various clinical measures for disability progression. Methods: Advanced models to assess baseline prognostic factors for disability progression over 2 years were applied to a pooled sample of patients from placebo arms in four different phase III clinical trials. least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression, elastic nets, support vector machines, and unconditional and conditional random forests were applied to model time to clinical disability progression confirmed at 24 weeks. Sensitivity analyses for different definitions of a combined endpoint were carried out, and bootstrap was used to assess prediction model performance. Results: A total of 1582 patients were included, of which 434 (27.4%) had disability progression in a combined endpoint over 2 years. Overall model discrimination performance was relatively poor (all C-indices ⩽ 0.65) across all models and across different definitions of progression. Conclusion: Inconsistency of prognostic factor importance ranking confirmed the relatively poor prediction ability of baseline factors in modeling disease progression in MS. Our findings underline the importance to explore alternative predictors as well as alternative definitions of commonly used endpoints.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syuichi Itahashi ◽  
Baozhu Ge ◽  
Keiichi Sato ◽  
Joshua S. Fu ◽  
Xuemei Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) Phase III was conducted to promote understanding of regional air quality and climate change in Asia, which have received growing attention due to the huge amount of anthropogenic emissions worldwide. This study provides an overview of acid depositions. Specifically, dry and wet depositions of the following species were analyzed: S (sulfate aerosol, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and sulfuric acid (H2SO4)), N (nitrate aerosol, nitrogen monoxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and nitric acid (HNO3)), and A (ammonium aerosol and ammonia (NH3)). The wet deposition simulated by a total of nine models was analyzed and evaluated using ground observation data from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET). In this Phase III study, the number of observation sites was increased to 54 from 37 in the Phase II study, and Southeast Asian countries were newly added. Additionally, whereas the analysis period was limited to representative months of each season in MICS-Asia Phase II, this Phase III study analyzed the full year of 2010. The scope of this overview mainly focuses on the annual accumulated depositions. In general, models can capture the observed wet depositions over Asia but underestimate the wet deposition of S and A and show large differences in the wet deposition of N. Furthermore, the ratio of wet deposition to the total deposition (the sum of dry and wet deposition) was investigated in order to understand the role of important processes in the total deposition. The general dominance of wet deposition over Asia and attributions from dry deposition over land were consistently found in all models. Then, total deposition maps over 13 countries participating in EANET were produced, and the balance between deposition and anthropogenic emissions was calculated. Excesses of deposition, rather than of anthropogenic emissions, were found over Japan, North Asia, and Southeast Asia, indicating the possibility of long-range transport within and outside Asia, as well as other emission sources. To improve the ability of models to capture the observed wet deposition, two approaches were attempted, namely, ensemble and precipitation adjustment. The ensemble approach was effective at modulating the differences in performance among models, and the precipitation-adjusted approach demonstrated that the model performance for precipitation played a key role in better simulating wet deposition. Finally, the lessons learned from this Phase III study and future perspectives for Phase IV are summarized.


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 629-640 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. W. Wang ◽  
J. C. Gallet ◽  
C. A. Pedersen ◽  
X. S. Zhang ◽  
J. Ström ◽  
...  

Abstract. Light-absorbing aerosol – particularly elemental carbon (EC) – while mixed with snow and ice is an important climate driver from the enhanced absorption of solar radiation. Currently, considerable efforts are being made to estimate its radiative forcing on a global scale, but several uncertainties remain, particularly those regarding its deposition processes. In this study, concurrent measurements of EC in air and snow are performed for three years (2009–2012) at Changbai station, northeastern China. The scavenging ratio and the wet- and dry-deposition fluxes of EC over the snow surface are estimated. The mean EC concentration in the surface snow is 1000 ± 1500 ng g−1, ranging from 7 to 7640 ng g−1. The mean value of the scavenging ratio of EC by snow is 140 ± 100, with a median value of 150, which is smaller than that reported in Arctic areas. A non-rimed snow process is a significant factor in interpreting differences with Arctic areas. Wet-deposition fluxes of EC are estimated to be 0.47 ± 0.37 μg cm−2 month−1 on average over the three snow seasons studied. Dry deposition is more than five times higher, with an average of 2.65 ± 1.93 μg cm−2 month−1; however, only winter period estimation is possible (December–February). During winter in Changbai, 87% of EC in snow is estimated to be due to dry deposition, with a mean dry deposition velocity of 6.44 × 10−3 m s−1 and median of 8.14 × 10−3 m s−1. Finally, the calculation of the radiative effect shows that 500 ng g−1 of dry-deposited EC to a snow surface absorbs three times more incoming solar energy than the same mass mixed in the snow through wet deposition. Deposition processes of an EC-containing snow surface are, therefore, crucial to estimate its radiative forcing better, particularly in northeastern China, where local emission strongly influences the level and gradient of EC in the snowpack, and snow-covered areas are cold and dry due to the atmospheric general circulation. Furthermore, this study builds on the knowledge to characterize the conditions in the snow-laden Chinese rural areas better as well as to constrain transport of EC to the Arctic better.


2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 381-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Sič ◽  
L. El Amraoui ◽  
V. Marécal ◽  
B. Josse ◽  
J. Arteta ◽  
...  

Abstract. This paper deals with recent improvements to the global chemical transport model of Météo-France MOCAGE (Modèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle) that consists of updates to different aerosol parameterizations. MOCAGE only contains primary aerosol species: desert dust, sea salt, black carbon, organic carbon, and also volcanic ash in the case of large volcanic eruptions. We introduced important changes to the aerosol parameterization concerning emissions, wet deposition and sedimentation. For the emissions, size distribution and wind calculations are modified for desert dust aerosols, and a surface sea temperature dependant source function is introduced for sea salt aerosols. Wet deposition is modified toward a more physically realistic representation by introducing re-evaporation of falling rain and snowfall scavenging and by changing the in-cloud scavenging scheme along with calculations of precipitation cloud cover and rain properties. The sedimentation scheme update includes changes regarding the stability and viscosity calculations. Independent data from satellites (MODIS, SEVIRI), the ground (AERONET, EMEP), and a model inter-comparison project (AeroCom) are compared with MOCAGE simulations and show that the introduced changes brought a significant improvement on aerosol representation, properties and global distribution. Emitted quantities of desert dust and sea salt, as well their lifetimes, moved closer towards values of AeroCom estimates and the multi-model average. When comparing the model simulations with MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations over the oceans, the updated model configuration shows a decrease in the modified normalized mean bias (MNMB; from 0.42 to 0.10) and a better correlation (from 0.06 to 0.32) in terms of the geographical distribution and the temporal variability. The updates corrected a strong positive MNMB in the sea salt representation at high latitudes (from 0.65 to 0.16), and a negative MNMB in the desert dust representation in the African dust outflow region (from −1.01 to −0.22). The updates in sedimentation produced a modest difference; the MNMB with MODIS data from 0.10 in the updated configuration went to 0.11 in the updated configuration only without the sedimentation updates. Yet, the updates in the emissions and the wet deposition made a stronger impact on the results; the MNMB was 0.27 and 0.21 in updated configurations only without emission, and only without wet deposition updates, respectively. Also, the lifetime, the extent, and the strength of the episodic aerosol events are better reproduced in the updated configuration. The wet deposition processes and the differences between the various configurations that were tested greatly influence the representation of the episodic events. However, wet deposition is not a continuous process; it has a local and episodic signature and its representation depends strongly on the precipitation regime in the model.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans-Werner Jacobi ◽  
Friedrich Obleitner ◽  
Sophie Da Costa ◽  
Patrick Ginot ◽  
Kostas Eleftheriadis ◽  
...  

Abstract. Although aerosols in the Arctic have multiple and complex impacts on the regional climate, their removal due to deposition is still not well quantified. We combined meteorological, aerosol, precipitation, and snow pack observations with simulations to derive information about the deposition of sea salt components and black carbon (BC) from November 2011 to April 2012 to the Arctic snow pack at two locations close to Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. The dominating role of sea salt and the contribution of dust for the composition of atmospheric aerosols were reflected in the seasonal composition of the snow pack. The strong alignment of the concentrations of the major sea salt components in the aerosols, the precipitation, and the snow pack is linked to the importance of wet deposition for the transfer from the atmosphere to the snow pack. This agreement was less strong for monthly snow budgets and deposition indicating important relocation of the impurities inside the snow pack after deposition. Wet deposition was less important for the transfer of nitrate, non sea salt-sulfate, and BC to the snow during the winter period. The average BC concentration in the snow pack remains small with a limited impact on snow albedo and melting. Nevertheless, the observations also indicate an important redistribution of BC in the snowpack leading to layers with enhanced concentrations. The complex behavior of bromide due to modifications during the sea salt aerosol formation and remobilization in the atmosphere and in the snow were not resolved due to the lack of measurements in aerosols and precipitation.


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