scholarly journals Review of “How does the UKESM1 climate model produce its cloud-aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic?” by Grosvenor et al.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anonymous
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
The North Atlantic

scholarly journals The use of a flow field correction technique for alleviating the North Atlantic cold bias with application to the Kiel Climate Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 65 (8) ◽  
pp. 1079-1093 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annika Drews ◽  
Richard J. Greatbatch ◽  
Hui Ding ◽  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Wonsun Park
Keyword(s):  
Flow Field ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
The North ◽  
Correction Technique ◽  
The North Atlantic

Subpolar Gyre – AMOC – Atmosphere Interactions on Multidecadal Timescales in a Version of the Kiel Climate Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Sun ◽  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Wonsun Park
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
Surface Salinity ◽  
The North ◽  
Ocean Coupling ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>There is a controversy about the nature of multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic (NA) region, concerning the roles of ocean circulation and atmosphere-ocean coupling. Here we describe NA multidecadal variability from a version of the Kiel Climate Model, in which both subpolar gyre (SPG)-Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and atmosphere-ocean coupling are essential. The oceanic barotropic streamfuntions, meridional overturning streamfunctions, and sea level pressure are jointly analyzed to derive the leading mode of Atlantic variability. This mode accounting for about 23.7 % of the total combined variance is oscillatory with an irregular periodicity of 25-50 years and an e-folding time of about a decade. SPG and AMOC mutually influence each other and together provide the delayed negative feedback necessary for maintaining the oscillation. An anomalously strong SPG, for example, drives higher surface salinity and density in the NA’s sinking region. In response, oceanic deep convection and AMOC intensify, which, with a time delay of about a decade, reduces SPG strength by enhancing upper-ocean heat content. The weaker gyre circulation leads to lower surface salinity and density in the sinking region, which eventually reduces deep convection and AMOC strength. There is a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback between the sea surface temperature and low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Greenland area, with related wind stress changes reinforcing SPG changes, thereby maintaining the (damped) multidecadal oscillation against dissipation. Stochastic surface heat-flux forcing associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation drives the eigenmode.</p>

scholarly journals Modeling the climatic implications of the Guliya δ<sup>18</sup>O record during the past 130 ka

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1885-1914
Author(s):  
D. Xiao ◽  
P. Zhao ◽  
Y. Wang ◽  
X. Zhou
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
Precession Cycle ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Anomalous Pattern

Abstract. Using an intermediate-complexity UVic Earth System Climate Model (UVic Model), the geographical and seasonal implications and an indicative sense of the historical climate found in the δ18O record of the Guliya ice core (hereinafter, the Guliya δ18O) are investigated under time-dependent orbital forcing with an acceleration factor of 100 over the past 130 ka. The results reveal that the simulated late-summer (August–September) Guliya surface air temperature (SAT) reproduces the 23-ka precession and 43-ka obliquity cycles in the Guliya δ18O. Furthermore, the Guliya δ18O is significantly correlated with the SAT over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), which suggests the Guliya δ18O is an indicator of the late-summer SAT in the NH. Corresponding to the warm and cold phases of the precession cycle in the Guliya temperature, there are two anomalous patterns in the SAT and sea surface temperature (SST) fields. The first anomalous pattern shows an increase in the SAT (SST) toward the Arctic, possibly associated with the joint effect of the precession and obliquity cycles, and the second anomalous pattern shows an increase in the SAT (SST) toward the equator, possibly due to the influence of the precession cycle. Additionally, the summer (winter) Guliya and NH temperatures are higher (lower) in the warm phases of Guliya late-summer SAT than in the cold phases. Furthermore, the Guliya SAT is closely related to the North Atlantic SST, in which the Guliya precipitation may act as a "bridge" linking the Guliya SAT and the North Atlantic SST.

Co-variability of salinity and temperature changes in the North Atlantic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Levke Caesar ◽  
Gerard McCarthy
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Geophysical Research ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Cold Anomaly ◽  
The North Atlantic

&lt;p&gt;While there is increasing paleoclimatic evidence that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has weakened over the last one to two hundred years (Caesar et al., 2018; Thornalley et al., 2018), this is not confirmed by climate model simulations. Instead, the new simulations from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a slight strengthening of the multimodel mean AMOC from 1850 until about 1985 (Menary et al., 2020), attributed to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Arguing for a recent weakening of the AMOC, some studies attribute the emergence of the North Atlantic warming hole as a sign of the reduced meridional heat transport associated with a weaker AMOC (e.g. Caesar et al., 2018), yet this cold anomaly has also been interpreted as being aerosol-forced (Booth et al., 2012) and therefore not necessarily a sign of a weakening AMOC but rather a possible driver of a strengthening of the AMOC.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Looking beyond temperature, a fresh anomaly has recently emerged in the subpolar North Atlantic (Holliday et al., 2020). While a strengthening AMOC has been linked with an increase in salinity in the subpolar gyre region (Menary et al., 2013), an AMOC weakening would, due to the salt-advection feedback, likely lead to a reduction in salinity in the North Atlantic region. To shed some light on the question of whether the cold anomaly is internally (AMOC) or externally (aerosol-forced) driven we consider the co-variability of salinity and temperature in the North Atlantic in respect of changes in surface fluxes or alternate drivers.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;References&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Booth, B.B.B., Dunstone, N.J., Halloran, P.R., Andrews, T. and Bellouin, N., 2012. Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. Nature, 484(7393): 228&amp;#8211;232.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G. and Saba, V., 2018. Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nature, 556(7700): 191-196.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Holliday, N.P., Bersch, M., Berx, B., Chafik, L., Cunningham, S., Florindo-L&amp;#243;pez, C., H&amp;#225;t&amp;#250;n, H., Johns, W., Josey, S.A., Larsen, K.M.H., Mulet, S., Oltmanns, M., Reverdin, G., Rossby, T., Thierry, V., Valdimarsson, H. and Yashayaev, I., 2020. Ocean circulation causes the largest freshening event for 120 years in eastern subpolar North Atlantic. Nature Communications, 11(1): 585.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Menary, M.B., Roberts, C.D., Palmer, M.D., Halloran, P.R., Jackson, L., Wood, R.A., M&amp;#252;ller, W.A., Matei, D. and Lee, S.-K., 2013. Mechanisms of aerosol-forced AMOC variability in a state of the art climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118(4): 2087-2096.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Menary, M.B., Robson, J., Allan, R.P., Booth, B.B.B., Cassou, C., Gastineau, G., Gregory, J., Hodson, D., Jones, C., Mignot, J., Ringer, M., Sutton, R., Wilcox, L. and Zhang, R., 2020. Aerosol-Forced AMOC Changes in CMIP6 Historical Simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(14): e2020GL088166.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Thornalley, D.J.R., Oppo, D.W., Ortega, P., Robson, J.I., Brierley, C.M., Davis, R., Hall, I.R., Moffa-Sanchez, P., Rose, N.L., Spooner, P.T., Yashayaev, I. and Keigwin, L.D., 2018. Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years. Nature, 556(7700): 227-230.&lt;/p&gt;

Statistical Projection of the North Atlantic Storm Tracks

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (7) ◽  
pp. 1509-1522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kajsa M. Parding ◽  
Rasmus Benestad ◽  
Abdelkader Mezghani ◽  
Helene B. Erlandsen
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractA method for empirical–statistical downscaling was adapted to project seasonal cyclone density over the North Atlantic Ocean. To this aim, the seasonal mean cyclone density was derived from instantaneous values of the 6-h mean sea level pressure (SLP) reanalysis fields. The cyclone density was then combined with seasonal mean reanalysis and global climate model projections of SLP or 500-hPa geopotential height to obtain future projections of the North Atlantic storm tracks. The empirical–statistical approach is computationally efficient because it makes use of seasonally aggregated cyclone statistics and allows the future cyclone density to be estimated from the full ensemble of available CMIP5 models rather than from a smaller subset. However, the projected cyclone density in the future differs considerably depending on the choice of predictor, SLP, or 500-hPa geopotential height. This discrepancy suggests that the relationship between the cyclone density and SLP, 500-hPa geopotential height, or both is nonstationary; that is, that the statistical model depends on the calibration period. A stationarity test based on 6-hourly HadGEM2-ES data indicated that the 500-hPa geopotential height was not a robust predictor of cyclone density.

scholarly journals The Relative Influence of Atmospheric and Oceanic Model Resolution on the Circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean in a Coupled Climate Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2026-2041 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Nikolay V. Koldunov ◽  
Sergey Danilov ◽  
Dmitry Sidorenko ◽  
Claudia Wekerle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Relative Influence ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Coupled Climate Model ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Oceanic Model

scholarly journals Arctic/Atlantic Exchanges via the Subpolar Gyre*

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 2421-2439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helene R. Langehaug ◽  
Iselin Medhaug ◽  
Tor Eldevik ◽  
Odd Helge Otterå
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Similar Response ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract In the present study the decadal variability in the strength and shape of the subpolar gyre (SPG) in a 600-yr preindustrial simulation using the Bergen Climate Model is investigated. The atmospheric influence on the SPG strength is reflected in the variability of Labrador Sea Water (LSW), which is largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation, the first mode of the North Atlantic atmospheric variability. A combination of the amount of LSW, the overflows from the Nordic seas, and the second mode of atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern, explains 44% of the modeled decadal variability in the SPG strength. A prior increase in these components leads to an intensified SPG in the western subpolar region. Typically, an increase of one standard deviation (std dev) of the total overflow (1 std dev = 0.2 Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) corresponds to an intensification of about one-half std dev of the SPG strength (1 std dev = 2 Sv). A similar response is found for an increase of one std dev in the amount of LSW, and simultaneously the strength of the North Atlantic Current increases by one-half std dev (1 std dev = 0.9 Sv).

scholarly journals How does the UKESM1 climate model produce its cloud-aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel P. Grosvenor ◽  
Kenneth S. Carslaw
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Liquid Water ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Water Path ◽  
The North ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Low Altitude

Abstract. Climate variability in the North Atlantic influences processes such as hurricane activity and droughts. Global model simulations have identified aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) as an important driver of sea surface temperature variability via surface aerosol forcing. However, ACIs are a major cause of uncertainty in climate forcing, therefore caution is needed in interpreting the results from coarse resolution, highly parameterized global models. Here we separate and quantify the components of the surface shortwave effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to aerosol in the atmosphere-only version of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) and evaluate the cloud properties and their radiative effects against observations. We focus on a northern region of the North Atlantic (NA) where stratocumulus clouds dominate (denoted the northern NA region) and a southern region where trade cumulus and broken stratocumlus dominate (southern NA region). Aerosol forcing was diagnosed using a pair of simulations in which the meteorology is approximately fixed via nudging to analysis; one simulation has pre-industrial (PI) and one has present-day (PD) aerosol emissions. Contributions to the surface ERF from changes in cloud fraction (fc), in-cloud liquid water path (LWPic) and droplet number concentration (Nd) were quantified. Over the northern NA region increases in Nd and LWPic dominate the forcing. This is likely because the high fc there precludes further large increases in fc and allows cloud brightening to act over a larger region. Over the southern NA region increases in fc dominate due to the suppression of rain by the additional aerosols. Aerosol-driven increases in macrophysical cloud properties (LWPic and fc) will rely on the response of the boundary layer parameterization, along with input from the cloud microphysics scheme, which are highly uncertain processes. Model gridboxes with low-altitude clouds present in both the PI and PD dominate the forcing in both regions. In the northern NA the brightening of completely overcast low cloud scenes (100 % cloud cover, likely stratocumlus) contributes the most, whereas in the southern NA the creation of clouds with fc of around 20 % from clear skies in the PI was the largest single contributor, suggesting that trade cumulus clouds are created in response to increases in aerosol. The creation of near-overcast clouds was also important there. The correct spatial pattern, coverage and properties of clouds are important for determining the magnitude of aerosol forcing so we also assess the realism of the modelled PD clouds against satellite observations. We find that the model reproduces the spatial pattern of all the observed cloud variables well, but that there are biases. The shortwave top-of-the-atmosphere (SWTOA) flux is overestimated by 5.8 % in the northern NA region and 1.7 % in the southern NA, which we attribute mainly to positive biases in low-altitude fc. Nd is too low by −20.6 % in the northern NA and too high by by 21.5 % in the southern NA, but does not contribute greatly to the main SWTOA biases. Cloudy-sky liquid water path mainly shows biases north of Scandinavia that reach up to between 50 and 100 % and dominate the SWTOA bias in that region. The large contribution to aerosol forcing in the UKESM1 model from highly uncertain macrophysical adjustments suggests that further targeted observations are needed to assess rain formation processes, how they depend on aerosols and the model response to precipitation in order to reduce uncertainty in climate projections.

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