scholarly journals The mean meridional circulation and midlatitude ozone buildup

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 3159-3172 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Nikulin ◽  
A. Karpechko
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
The North ◽  
Eddy Heat Flux ◽  
Propagating Waves ◽  
Mean Meridional Circulation ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. The wintertime ozone buildup over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes and its connection with the mean meridional circulation in the stratosphere are examined statistically on a monthly basis from October to March (1980–2002). The ozone buildup begins locally in October with positive total ozone tendencies over the North Pacific, which spread eastward and westward in November and finally cover all midlatitudes in December. The local onset of the buildup in October is not evident in zonal mean ozone tendency, which is close to zero. From November to March, zonal mean total ozone tendency (50°–60° N) shows a strong correlation (|r|=0.7) with several zonal mean parameters associated to the mean meridional circulation, namely: eddy heat flux, temperature tendency, the vertical residual velocity and the residual streamfunction. At the same time, on the latitude-altitude cross section, correlation patterns between ozone tendency and widely used eddy heat flux are not uniform during winter. The strongest correlations are located equatorward (almost throughout the stratosphere) or poleward (only in the lower stratosphere) of the edge of the polar vortex. Such distribution may depend on the existence of the midlatitude and polar waveguides which defined refraction of upward propagating waves from the troposphere either to the midlatitude stratosphere or to the polar stratosphere. As a consequence of the nonuniform correlation patterns, heat flux averaged over the common region 45°–75° N, 100 hPa is not always an optimum proxy for statistical models describing total ozone variability in midlatitudes. Other parameters approximating the strength of the mean meridional circulation have more uniform and stable correlation patterns with ozone tendency during winter. We show that the NH midlatitude ozone buildup has a stable statistical relationship with the mean meridional circulation in all months from October to March and half of the interannual variability in monthly ozone tendencies can be explained by applying different proxies of the mean meridional circulation.

scholarly journals The mean meridional circulation and midlatitude ozone buildup

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 4223-4256
Author(s):  
G. Nikulin ◽  
A. Karpechko
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Residual Velocity ◽  
The North ◽  
Eddy Heat Flux ◽  
Mean Meridional Circulation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Temperature Tendency ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract. The development of wintertime ozone buildup over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes and its connection with the mean meridional circulation in the stratosphere are examined statistically on a monthly basis from October to March (1980–2002). The ozone buildup begins locally in October with positive ozone tendencies over the North Pacific, which spread eastward and westward in November and finally cover all midlatitudes in December. During October–January a longitudinal distribution of the ozone tendencies mirrors a structure of quasi-stationary planetary waves in the lower stratosphere and has less similarity with this structure in February–March when chemistry begins to play a more important role. From November to March, zonal mean ozone tendencies (50°–60° N) show strong correlation (|r|=0.7) with different parameters used as proxies of the mean meridional circulation, namely: eddy heat flux, the vertical residual velocity (diabatically-derived) and temperature tendency. The correlation patterns between ozone tendency and the vertical residual velocity or temperature tendency are more homogeneous from month to month than ones for eddy heat flux. A partial exception is December when correlation is strong only for the vertical residual velocity. In October zonal mean ozone tendencies have no coupling with the proxies. However, positive tendencies averaged over the North Pacific correlate well, with all of them suggesting that intensification of northward ozone transport starts locally over the Pacific already in October. We show that the NH midlatitude ozone buildup has stable statistical relation with the mean meridional circulation in all months from October to March and half of the interannual variability in monthly ozone tendencies can be explained by applying different proxies of the mean meridional circulation.

scholarly journals Modelling the residual mean meridional circulation at different stages of sudden stratospheric warming events

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 357-368
Author(s):  
Andrey V. Koval ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Ksenia A. Didenko ◽  
Tatiana S. Ermakova ◽  
Nikolai M. Gavrilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Polar Region ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
The North ◽  
Mean Meridional Circulation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Wave Induced

Abstract. Ensemble simulation of the atmospheric general circulation at altitudes up to the lower thermosphere is performed using the 3-D nonlinear mechanistic numerical model MUAM. The residual mean meridional circulation (RMC), which is the superposition of the mean Eulerian and wave-induced eddy components, is calculated for the boreal winter. Changes in the vertical and meridional RMC velocity components are analysed at different stages of a simulated composite sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event averaged over 19 model runs. The simulation results show a general decrease in RMC velocity components up to 30 % during and after SSW in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere of the Northern Hemisphere. There are also increases in the downward and northward velocities at altitudes of 20–50 km at the northern polar latitudes during SSW. Associated vertical transport and adiabatic heating can contribute to warming the stratosphere and downward shifting of the stratopause during the composite SSW. The residual mean and eddy mass fluxes are calculated for different SSW stages. It is shown that before the SSW, planetary wave activity creates wave-induced eddy circulation cells in the northern upper stratosphere, which are directed upwards at middle latitudes, northward at high latitudes and downwards near the North Pole. These cells increase heat transport and adiabatic heating in the polar region. During SSW, the region of upward eddy vertical velocity is shifted to high latitudes, but the velocity is still downward near the North Pole. After SSW, upward eddy-induced fluxes span the entire polar region, producing upward transport and adiabatic cooling of the stratosphere and providing the return of the stratopause to higher altitudes. The obtained statistically significant results on the evolution of RMC and eddy circulation at different SSW stages at altitudes up to the lower thermosphere can be useful for a better understanding the mechanisms of planetary wave impacts on the mean flow and for the diagnostics of the transport of conservative tracers in the atmosphere.

scholarly journals On the Efficiency of Baroclinic Eddy Growth and How It Reduces the North Pacific Storm-Track Intensity in Midwinter

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (23) ◽  
pp. 8373-8398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Schemm ◽  
Gwendal Rivière
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
The North ◽  
Eddy Heat Flux ◽  
Subtropical Jet ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Storm Track

Abstract This study investigates the efficiency of baroclinic eddy growth in an effort to better understand the suppression of the North Pacific storm-track intensity in winter. The efficiency of baroclinic eddy growth depends on the magnitude and orientation of the vertical tilt of the eddy geopotential isolines. The eddy efficiency is maximized if the orientation of the vertical tilt creates an eddy heat flux that aligns with the mean baroclinicity (defined as minus the temperature gradient divided by a stratification parameter) and if the magnitude of the vertical tilt is neither too strong nor too weak. The eddy efficiency is, in contrast to most other eddy measures, independent of the eddy amplitude and thus useful for improving our mechanistic understanding of the effective eddy growth. During the midwinter suppression, the eddy efficiency is reduced north of 40°N over a region upstream of the main storm track, and baroclinic growth is reduced despite a maximum in baroclinicity. Eulerian diagnostics and feature tracking suggest that the reduction in eddy efficiency is due to a stronger poleward tilt with height of eddies entering the Pacific through the northern seeding branch, which results in a more eastward-oriented eddy heat flux and a reduced alignment with the baroclinicity. The stronger poleward tilt with height is constrained by the eddy propagation direction, which is more equatorward when the subtropical jet moves equatorward in winter. In addition, the westward tilt with height is too strong. South of 40°N, the eddy efficiency increases during midwinter but in a region far away from the main storm track.

Representation of the Scandinavia-Greenland Pattern and its Relationship with the Polar Vortex in S2S Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Lee ◽  
Andrew Charlton-Perez ◽  
Jason Furtado ◽  
Steven Woolnough
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Wave Breaking ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Rossby Wave Breaking ◽  
The North ◽  
Eddy Heat Flux ◽  
Vertically Propagating ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

<p>The strength of the stratospheric polar vortex is a key contributor to subseasonal prediction during boreal winter. Anomalously weak polar vortex events can be induced by enhanced vertically propagating Rossby waves from the troposphere, driven by blocking and wave breaking. Here, we analyse a tropospheric pattern—the Scandinavia–Greenland (S–G) pattern—associated with both processes. The S–G pattern is defined as the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of mean sea‐level pressure in the northeast Atlantic. The first EOF is a zonal pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation. We show that the S–G pattern is associated with a transient amplification of planetary wavenumber 2 and meridional eddy heat flux, followed by the onset of a persistently weakened polar vortex. We then analyse 10 different models from the S2S database, finding that, while all models represent the structure of the S–G pattern well, some models have a zonal bias with more than the observed variability in their first EOF, and accordingly less in their second EOF. This bias is largest in the models with the lowest resolution, and consistent with biases in blocking and Rossby wave breaking in these models. Skill in predicting the S–G pattern is not high beyond week 2 in any model, in contrast to the zonal pattern. We find that the relationship between the S–G pattern, enhanced eddy heat flux in the stratosphere, and a weakened polar vortex is initially well represented, but decays significantly with lead time in most S2S models. Our results motivate improved representation of the S–G pattern and its stratospheric response at longer lead times for improved subseasonal prediction of the stratospheric polar vortex.</p>

On the Determination of Age of Air Trends from Atmospheric Trace Species

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rolando R. Garcia ◽  
William J. Randel ◽  
Douglas E. Kinnison
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Chemical Species ◽  
Large Error ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration ◽  
Nonlinear Growth ◽  
Mean Meridional Circulation ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Trace chemical species have been used in numerical models to calculate the age of air (AOA), which is a measure of the strength of the mean meridional circulation. The trend in the AOA has also been computed and found to be negative in simulations where greenhouse gases increase with time, which is consistent with the acceleration of the mean meridional circulation calculated under these conditions. This modeling result has been tested recently using observations of SF6, a very long lived species whose atmospheric concentration has increased rapidly over the last half century, and of CO2, which is also very long lived and increasing with time. Surprisingly, the AOA estimated from these gases exhibits no significant trend over the period 1975–2005. Here the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is used to derive estimates of the AOA from SF6 and CO2 over the period 1965–2006. The calculated AOA yields trends that are smaller than the trend derived from a synthetic, linearly growing tracer, even after accounting for the nonlinear growth rates of SF6 and CO2. A simplified global transport model and analytical arguments are used to show that this follows from the variable growth rate of these species. It is also shown that, when AOA is sampled sparsely as in the observations, the resulting trends have very large error bars and are statistically undistinguishable from zero. These results suggest that trends in the AOA are difficult to estimate unambiguously except for well-sampled tracers that increase linearly and uniformly. While such tracers can be defined in numerical models, there are no naturally occurring species that exhibit such idealized behavior.

scholarly journals A Comprehensive Assessment of Tropical Stratospheric Upwelling in Specified Dynamics CESM1.2.2 (WACCM)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas A. Davis ◽  
Sean M. Davis ◽  
Robert W. Portmann ◽  
Eric Ray ◽  
Karen H. Rosenlof ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Best Practices ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Trace Gas ◽  
Mean Meridional Circulation ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
Free Running ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Wave Momentum

Abstract. Specified dynamics (SD) schemes relax the circulation in climate models toward a reference meteorology to simulate historical variability. These simulations are widely used to isolate the dynamical contributions to variability and trends in trace gas species. However, it is not clear if trends in the stratospheric overturning circulation are properly reproduced by SD schemes. This study assesses numerous SD schemes and modeling choices in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Whole Atmosphere Chemistry Climate Model (WACCM) to determine a set of best practices for reproducing interannual variability and trends in tropical stratospheric upwelling estimated by reanalyses. Nudging toward the reanalysis meteorology as is typically done in SD simulations expectedly changes the model’s mean upwelling compared to its free-running state, but does not accurately reproduce upwelling trends present in the underlying reanalysis. In contrast, nudging to anomalies from the climatological winds or from the zonal mean winds and temperatures preserves WACCM’s climatology and better reproduces trends in stratospheric upwelling. An SD scheme’s performance in simulating the acceleration of the shallow branch of the mean meridional circulation from 1980–2017 hinges on its ability to simulate the downward shift of subtropical lower stratospheric wave momentum forcing. Key to this is not nudging the zonal-mean temperature field. Gravity wave momentum forcing, which drives a substantial fraction of the upwelling in WACCM, cannot be constrained by nudging and presents an upper-limit on the performance of these schemes.

scholarly journals Total ozone trends and variability during 1979–2012 from merged datasets of various satellites

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 30407-30452 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Chehade ◽  
J. P. Burrows ◽  
M. Weber
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Eddy Heat Flux ◽  
Other Hand

Abstract. The study presents a~long term statistical trend analysis of total ozone datasets obtained from various satellites. A multi-variate linear regression was applied to annual mean zonal mean data using various natural and anthropogenic explanatory variables that represent dynamical and chemical processes which modify global ozone distributions in a changing climate. The study investigated the magnitude and zonal distribution of the different atmospheric chemical and dynamical factors to long-term total ozone changes. The regression model included the equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the 11 yr solar cycle, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), stratospheric aerosol loading describing the effects from major volcanic eruptions, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation (AO/AAO), and accumulated eddy heat flux (EHF), the latter representing changes due to the Brewer–Dobson circulation. The total ozone column dataset used here comprises the SBUV/TOMS/OMI merged data (1979–2012) MOD V8.0, the SBUV/SBUV-2 merged V8.6 and the merged GOME/SCIAMACHY/GOME-2 (GSG) WFDOAS merged data (1995–2012). The trend analysis was performed for twenty six 5° wide latitude bands from 65° S to 65° N, the analysis explained most of the ozone variability. The results show that QBO dominates the ozone variability in the tropics (±7 DU) while at higher latitudes, the dynamical indices, AO/AAO and eddy heat flux, have substantial influence on total ozone variations by up to ±10 DU. Volcanic aerosols are only prominent during the eruption periods and these together with the ENSO signal are more evident in the Northern Hemisphere. The signature of the solar cycle is evident over all latitudes and contributes about 10 DU from solar maximum to solar minimum. EESC is found to be a main contributor to the long-term ozone decline and the trend changes after the end of 1990s. A positive significant trend in total ozone columns is found after 1997 (between 1 and 8.2 DU decade−1) which points at the slowing of ozone decline and the onset of ozone recovery. The EESC based trends are compared with the trends obtained from the statistical piecewise linear trend (PWLT or hockey stick) model with a turnaround in 1997 to examine the differences between both approaches. Similar and significant pre-turnaround trends are observed. On the other hand, our results do indicate that the positive PWLT turnaround trends are larger than indicated by the EESC trends, however, they agree within 2-sigma, thus demonstrating the success of the Montreal Protocol phasing out of the ozone depleting substances (ODS). A sensitivity study is carried out by comparing the regression results, using SBUV MOD 8.0 merged time series (1979–2012) and a merged dataset combining TOMS/SBUV (1979–June 1995) and GOME/SCIAMACHY/GOME-2 ("GSG") WFDOAS (Weighting Function DOAS) (July 1995–2012) as well as SBUV/SBUV-2 MOD 8.6 (1979–2012) in the regression analysis in order to investigate the uncertainty in the long-term trends due to different ozone datasets and data versions. Replacing the late SBUV merged data record with GSG data (unscaled and adjusted) leads to very similar results demonstrating the high consistency between satellite datasets. However, the comparison of the new SBUV merged Mod V8.6 with the V8.0 data showed somewhat smaller sensitivities with regard to several proxies, however, the EESC and PWLT trends are very similar. On the other hand, the new MOD 8.6 data in the PWLT model revealed a~reduced ODS related upward trend after 1997.

scholarly journals The Life Cycle of the North Atlantic Storm Track*

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 821-833 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lenka Novak ◽  
Maarten H. P. Ambaum ◽  
Rémi Tailleux
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
High Heat ◽  
High Heat Flux ◽  
Dominant Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Eddy Heat Flux ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet exhibits latitudinal variability with evidence of three preferred latitudinal locations: south, middle, and north. Here the authors examine the drivers of this variability and the variability of the associated storm track. The authors investigate the changes in the storm-track characteristics for the three jet locations and propose a mechanism by which enhanced storm-track activity, as measured by upstream heat flux, is responsible for cyclical downstream latitudinal shifts in the jet. This mechanism is based on a nonlinear oscillator relationship between the enhanced meridional temperature gradient (and thus baroclinicity) and the meridional high-frequency (periods of shorter than 10 days) eddy heat flux. Such oscillations in baroclinicity and heat flux induce variability in eddy anisotropy, which is associated with the changes in the dominant type of wave breaking and a different latitudinal deflection of the jet. The authors’ results suggest that high heat flux is conducive to a northward deflection of the jet, whereas low heat flux is conducive to a more zonal jet. This jet-deflecting effect was found to operate most prominently downstream of the storm-track maximum, while the storm track and the jet remain anchored at a fixed latitudinal location at the beginning of the storm track. These cyclical changes in storm-track characteristics can be viewed as different stages of the storm track’s spatiotemporal life cycle.

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