scholarly journals Small-scale mixing processes enhancing troposphere-to-stratosphere transport by pyro-cumulonimbus storms

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (23) ◽  
pp. 5945-5957 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Luderer ◽  
J. Trentmann ◽  
K. Hungershöfer ◽  
M. Herzog ◽  
M. Fromm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Temperature Pattern ◽  
Mixing Processes ◽  
Close Link ◽  
Brightness Temperatures ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model

Abstract. Deep convection induced by large forest fires is an efficient mechanism for transport of aerosol particles and trace gases into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS). For many pyro-cumulonimbus clouds (pyroCbs) as well as other cases of severe convection without fire forcing, radiometric observations of cloud tops in the thermal infrared (IR) reveal characteristic structures, featuring a region of relatively high brightness temperatures (warm center) surrounded by a U-shaped region of low brightness temperatures. We performed a numerical simulation of a specific case study of pyroCb using a non-hydrostatic cloud resolving model with a two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization and a prognostic turbulence scheme. The model is able to reproduce the thermal IR structure as observed from satellite radiometry. Our findings establish a close link between the observed temperature pattern and small-scale mixing processes atop and downwind of the overshooting dome of the pyroCb. Such small-scale mixing processes are strongly enhanced by the formation and breaking of a stationary gravity wave induced by the overshoot. They are found to increase the stratospheric penetration of the smoke by up to almost 30 K and thus are of major significance for irreversible transport of forest fire smoke into the lower stratosphere.

scholarly journals Small-scale mixing processes enhancing troposphere-to-stratosphere transport by pyro-cumulonimbus storms

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 10371-10403
Author(s):  
G. Luderer ◽  
J. Trentmann ◽  
K. Hungershöfer ◽  
M. Herzog ◽  
M. Fromm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Temperature Pattern ◽  
Mixing Processes ◽  
Close Link ◽  
Brightness Temperatures ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model

Abstract. Deep convection induced by large forest fires is an efficient mechanism for transport of aerosol particles and trace gases into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS). For many pyro-cumulonimbus clouds (pyroCbs) as well as other cases of severe convection without fire forcing, radiometric observations of cloud tops in the thermal infrared (IR) reveal characteristic structures, featuring a region of relatively high brightness temperatures (warm center) surrounded by a U-shaped region of low brightness temperatures. We performed a numerical simulation of a specific case study of pyroCb using a non-hydrostatic cloud resolving model with a two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization and a prognostic turbulence scheme. The model is able to reproduce the thermal IR structure as observed from satellite radiometry. Our findings establish a close link between the observed temperature pattern and small-scale mixing processes atop and downwind of the overshooting dome of the pyroCb. Such small-scale mixing processes are strongly enhanced by the formation and breaking of a stationary gravity wave induced by the overshoot. They are found to enhance the stratospheric penetration of the smoke by up to 30 K and thus are of major significance for irreversible transport of forest fire smoke into the lower stratosphere.

Fractal reconstruction of the subgrid scales in turbulence models in applications to cloud microphysics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Akinlabi ◽  
Marta Waclawczyk ◽  
Szymon Malinowski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Turbulence Models ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Fractal Model ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Mixing Processes ◽  
Subgrid Scales ◽  
Scale Turbulence

<p>Modelling of small-scale turbulence in the atmosphere play a significant role in improving our understanding of cloud processes, thereby contributing to the development of better parameterization of climate models. One of the important problems is related to the transport of cloud particles, their activation and growth, which are influenced by small-scale turbulence motions. The idea presented in this work is to use fractal interpolation to reconstruct structures which are typically not resolved in the Large Eddy Simulations (LES) of clouds. Known filtered values of velocities on LES are basis of the reconstruction. The reconstructed small scales depend on the stretching parameter <em>d</em>, which is related to the fractal dimension of the signal. In many previous studies, the stretching parameter values were assumed to be constant in space and time. We modify this approach by treating the stretching parameter as a random variable with a prescribed probability density function (pdf). This function can be determined from <em>a priori</em> analysis of numerical or experimental data and within a certain range of wavenumbers it has a universal form, independent of the Reynolds number. We show, such modification leads to improvement in terms of reconstruction of two-point statistics of turbulent velocities. Preliminary results of simulations with Lagrangian particles (superdroplets) in the reconstructed field show the fractal model properly mimics the turbulent mixing processes at subgrid scales.</p>

scholarly journals A study of the effect of overshooting deep convection on the water content of the TTL and lower stratosphere from Cloud Resolving Model simulations

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (18) ◽  
pp. 4977-5002 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. P. Grosvenor ◽  
T. W. Choularton ◽  
H. Coe ◽  
G. Held
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Water Content ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Cold Trap ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Height Range ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Simulations of overshooting, tropical deep convection using a Cloud Resolving Model with bulk microphysics are presented in order to examine the effect on the water content of the TTL (Tropical Tropopause Layer) and lower stratosphere. This case study is a subproject of the HIBISCUS (Impact of tropical convection on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere at global scale) campaign, which took place in Bauru, Brazil (22° S, 49° W), from the end of January to early March 2004. Comparisons between 2-D and 3-D simulations suggest that the use of 3-D dynamics is vital in order to capture the mixing between the overshoot and the stratospheric air, which caused evaporation of ice and resulted in an overall moistening of the lower stratosphere. In contrast, a dehydrating effect was predicted by the 2-D simulation due to the extra time, allowed by the lack of mixing, for the ice transported to the region to precipitate out of the overshoot air. Three different strengths of convection are simulated in 3-D by applying successively lower heating rates (used to initiate the convection) in the boundary layer. Moistening is produced in all cases, indicating that convective vigour is not a factor in whether moistening or dehydration is produced by clouds that penetrate the tropopause, since the weakest case only just did so. An estimate of the moistening effect of these clouds on an air parcel traversing a convective region is made based on the domain mean simulated moistening and the frequency of convective events observed by the IPMet (Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorológicas, Universidade Estadual Paulista) radar (S-band type at 2.8 Ghz) to have the same 10 dBZ echo top height as those simulated. These suggest a fairly significant mean moistening of 0.26, 0.13 and 0.05 ppmv in the strongest, medium and weakest cases, respectively, for heights between 16 and 17 km. Since the cold point and WMO (World Meteorological Organization) tropopause in this region lies at ~15.9 km, this is likely to represent direct stratospheric moistening. Much more moistening is predicted for the 15–16 km height range with increases of 0.85–2.8 ppmv predicted. However, it would be required that this air is lofted through the tropopause via the Brewer Dobson circulation in order for it to have a stratospheric effect. Whether this is likely is uncertain and, in addition, the dehydration of air as it passes through the cold trap and the number of times that trajectories sample convective regions needs to be taken into account to gauge the overall stratospheric effect. Nevertheless, the results suggest a potentially significant role for convection in determining the stratospheric water content. Sensitivity tests exploring the impact of increased aerosol numbers in the boundary layer suggest that a corresponding rise in cloud droplet numbers at cloud base would increase the number concentrations of the ice crystals transported to the TTL, which had the effect of reducing the fall speeds of the ice and causing a ~13% rise in the mean vapour increase in both the 15–16 and 16–17 km height ranges, respectively, when compared to the control case. Increases in the total water were much larger, being 34% and 132% higher for the same height ranges, but it is unclear whether the extra ice will be able to evaporate before precipitating from the region. These results suggest a possible impact of natural and anthropogenic aerosols on how convective clouds affect stratospheric moisture levels.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Hydrometeor Phase and Ice Properties in Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations of Tropical Deep Convection Using Radiance and Polarization Measurements

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (11) ◽  
pp. 3290-3314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bastiaan van Diedenhoven ◽  
Ann M. Fridlind ◽  
Andrew S. Ackerman ◽  
Brian Cairns
Keyword(s):  
Asymmetry Parameter ◽  
Near Infrared ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Effective Radius ◽  
Ice Crystals ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Brightness Temperatures ◽  
Aspect Ratios ◽  
Tropical Deep Convection ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model

Abstract Satellite measurements are used to evaluate the glaciation, particle shape, and effective radius in cloud-resolving model simulations of tropical deep convection. Multidirectional polarized reflectances constrain the ice crystal geometry and the thermodynamic phase of the cloud tops, which in turn are used to calculate near-infrared reflectances so as to constrain the simulated ice effective radius, thereby avoiding inconsistencies between retrieval algorithms and model simulations. Liquid index values derived from Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances (POLDER) measurements indicate only ice-topped clouds at brightness temperatures (BTs) lower than −40°C, only liquid clouds at BT > −20°C, and both phases occurring at temperatures in between. Liquid index values calculated from model simulations generally reveal too many ice-topped clouds at BT > −20°C. The model assumption of platelike ice crystals with an aspect ratio of 0.7 is found consistent with POLDER measurements for BT < −40°C when very rough ice crystals are assumed, leading to an asymmetry parameter of 0.74, whereas measurements indicate more extreme aspect ratios of ~0.15 at higher temperatures, yielding an asymmetry parameter of 0.84. MODIS-retrieved ice effective radii are found to be 18–28 μm at BT < −40°C, but biased low by about 5 μm owing primarily to the assumption of pristine crystals in the retrieval. Simulated 2.13-μm reflectances at BT < −40°C are found to be about 0.05–0.1 too large compared to measurements, suggesting that model-simulated effective radii are 7–15 μm too small. Two simulations with contrasting ice nucleation schemes showed little difference in simulated effective radii at BT < −40°C, indicating that homogeneous nucleation is dominating in the simulations. Changes around −40°C in satellite observations suggest a change in cloud-top ice shape and/or size in natural deep convection possibly related to a change in the freezing mechanism.

The Soil Moisture–Precipitation Feedback in Simulations with Explicit and Parameterized Convection

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (19) ◽  
pp. 5003-5020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cathy Hohenegger ◽  
Peter Brockhaus ◽  
Christopher S. Bretherton ◽  
Christoph Schär
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Stable Layer ◽  
Two Systems ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model ◽  
Convection Schemes

Abstract Moist convection is a key aspect of the extratropical summer climate and strongly affects the delicate balance of processes that determines the surface climate in response to larger-scale forcings. Previous studies using parameterized convection have found that the feedback between soil moisture and precipitation is predominantly positive (more precipitation over wet soils) over Europe. Here this feedback is investigated for one full month (July 2006) over the Alpine region using two different model configurations. The first one employs regional climate simulations performed with the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling Model in Climate Mode (CCLM) on a grid spacing of 25 km. The second one uses the same model but integrated on a cloud-resolving grid of 2.2 km, allowing an explicit treatment of convection. Each configuration comprises one control and two sensitivity experiments. The latter start from perturbed soil moisture initial conditions. Comparison of the simulated soil moisture–precipitation feedback reveals significant differences between the two systems. The 25-km simulations sustain a strong positive feedback, while those at 2.2-km resolution are associated with a predominantly negative feedback. Thus the two systems yield not only different strengths of this key feedback but also different signs. This has important implications, with the cloud-resolving model exhibiting a shorter soil moisture memory and a smaller soil moisture–temperature feedback. Analysis shows that the different feedback signs relate to the sensitivity of the simulated convective development to the presence of a stable layer sitting on top of the planetary boundary layer. In the 2.2-km integrations, dry initial soil moisture conditions yield more vigorous thermals (owing to stronger daytime heating), which can more easily break through the stable air barrier, thereby leading to deep convection and ultimately to a negative soil moisture–precipitation feedback loop. In the 25-km integrations, deep convection is much less sensitive to the stable layer because of the design of the employed convective parameterization. The authors also show that there are considerable differences in the simulated soil moisture–precipitation feedback between low-resolution modeling frameworks using different cloud convection schemes.

scholarly journals Asymmetric and axisymmetric dynamics of tropical cyclones

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 12299-12341 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Persing ◽  
M. T. Montgomery ◽  
J. C. McWilliams ◽  
R. K. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Heating Rate ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Local Heating ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Surface Drag ◽  
Mixing Processes ◽  
D Model

Abstract. We present the results of idealized numerical experiments to examine the difference between tropical cyclone evolution in three-dimensional (3-D) and axisymmetric (AX) model configurations. We focus on the prototype problem for intensification, which considers the evolution of an initially unsaturated AX vortex in gradient-wind balance on an f plane. Consistent with findings of previous work, the mature intensity in the 3-D model is reduced relative to that in the AX model. In contrast with previous interpretations invoking barotropic instability and related horizontal mixing processes as a mechanism detrimental to the spin-up process, the results indicate that 3-D eddy processes associated with vortical plume structures can assist the intensification process by contributing to a radial contraction of the maximum tangential velocity and to a vertical extension of tangential winds through the depth of the troposphere. These plumes contribute significantly also to the azimuthally averaged heating rate and the corresponding azimuthal-mean overturning circulation. The comparisons show that the resolved 3-D eddy momentum fluxes above the boundary layer exhibit counter-gradient characteristics during a key spin-up period, and more generally are not solely diffusive. The effects of these eddies are thus not properly represented by the subgrid-scale parameterizations in the AX configuration. The resolved eddy fluxes act to support the contraction and intensification of the maximum tangential winds. The comparisons indicate fundamental differences between convective organization in the 3-D and AX configurations for meteorologically relevant forecast timescales. While the radial and vertical gradients of the system-scale angular rotation provide a hostile environment for deep convection in the 3-D model, with a corresponding tendency to strain the convective elements in the tangential direction, deep convection in the AX model does not suffer this tendency. Also, since during the 3-D intensification process the convection has not yet organized into annular rings, the azimuthally averaged heating rate and radial gradient thereof is considerably less than that in the AX model. This lack of organization results broadly in a slower intensification rate in the 3-D model and leads ultimately to a weaker mature vortex after 12 days of model integration. While azimuthal mean heating rates in the 3-D model are weaker than those in the AX model, local heating rates in the 3-D model exceed those in the AX model and at times the vortex in the 3-D model intensifies more rapidly than AX. Analyses of the 3-D model output do not support a recent hypothesis concerning the key role of small-scale vertical mixing processes in the upper-tropospheric outflow in controlling the intensification process. In the 3-D model, surface drag plays a particularly important role in the intensification process for the prototype intensification problem on meteorologically relevant timescales by helping foster the organization of convection in azimuth. There is a radical difference in the behaviour of the 3-D and AX simulations when the surface drag is reduced or increased from realistic values. Borrowing from ideas developed in a recent paper, we give a partial explanation for this difference in behaviour. Our results provide new qualitative and quantitative insight into the differences between the asymmetric and symmetric dynamics of tropical cyclones and would appear to have important consequences for the formulation of a fluid dynamical theory of tropical cyclone intensification and mature intensity. In particular, the results point to some fundamental limitations of strict axisymmetric theory and modelling for representing the azimuthally averaged behaviour of tropical cyclones in three dimensions.

scholarly journals A study of the effect of overshooting deep convection on the water content of the TTL and lower stratosphere from Cloud Resolving Model simulations

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 7277-7346 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. P. Grosvenor ◽  
T. W. Choularton ◽  
H. Coe ◽  
G. Held
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Water Content ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Cold Trap ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Height Range ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Simulations of overshooting, tropical deep convection using a Cloud Resolving Model with bulk microphysics are presented in order to examine the effect on the water content of the TTL (Tropical Tropopause Layer) and lower stratosphere. This case study is a subproject of the HIBISUCS (Impact of tropical convection on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere at global scale) campaign, which took place in Bauru, Brazil (22° S), from the end of January to early March 2004. Comparisons between 2-D and 3-D simulations suggest that the use of 3-D dynamics is vital in order to capture the mixing between the overshoot and the stratospheric air, which caused evaporation of ice and resulted in an overall moistening of the lower stratosphere. In contrast, a dehydrating effect was predicted by the 2-D simulation due to the extra time, allowed by the lack of mixing, for the ice transported to the region to precipitate out of the overshoot air. Three different strengths of convection are simulated in 3-D by applying successively lower heating rates (used to initiate the convection) in the boundary layer. Moistening is produced in all cases, indicating that convective vigour is not a factor in whether moistening or dehydration is predicted, since the weakest case only just penetrated the tropopause. An estimate of the moistening effect of these clouds on an air parcel traversing a convective region is made based on the domain mean simulated moistening and the frequency of convective events observed by the IPMet (Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorológicas, Universidade Estadual Paulista) radar to have the same 10 dBZ echo top height as those simulated. These suggest a fairly significant mean moistening of 0.26, 0.13 and 0.05 ppmv in the strongest, medium and weakest cases, respectively, for heights between 16 and 17 km. Since the tropopause in this region is thought to lie at ~15.9 km, this is likely to represent direct stratospheric moistening. Much more moistening is predicted for the 15–16 km height range with increases of 0.85–2.8 ppmv predicted. However, it would be required that this air is lofted through the tropopause via the Brewer Dobson circulation in order for it to have a stratospheric effect. Whether this is likely is uncertain and, in addition, the dehydration of air as it passes through the cold trap and the number of times that trajectories sample convective regions needs to be taken into account to gauge the overall stratospheric effect. Nevertheless, the results suggest a potentially significant role for convection in determining the stratospheric water content. Sensitivity tests exploring the impact of increased aerosol numbers in the boundary layer suggest that a corresponding rise in cloud droplet numbers at cloud base would increase the number concentrations of the ice crystals transported to the TTL, which had the effect of reducing the fall speeds of the ice and causing a ~13% rise in the mean vapour increase in both the 15–16 and 16–17 km height ranges, respectively, when compared to the control case. Increases in the total water were much larger, being 34% and 132% higher for the same height ranges, but it is unclear whether the extra ice will be able to evaporate before precipitating from the region. These results suggest a possible impact of natural and anthropogenic aerosols on how convective clouds affect stratospheric moisture levels.

scholarly journals Asymmetric and axisymmetric dynamics of tropical cyclones

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 13323-13438 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Persing ◽  
M. T. Montgomery ◽  
J. C. McWilliams ◽  
R. K. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Heating Rate ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Surface Drag ◽  
Mixing Processes ◽  
D Model

Abstract. We present the results of idealized numerical experiments to examine the difference between tropical cyclone evolution in three-dimensional (3-D) and axisymmetric (AX) model configurations. We focus on the prototype problem for intensification, which considers the evolution of an initially unsaturated AX vortex in gradient-wind balance on an f-plane. Consistent with findings of previous work, the mature intensity in the 3-D model is reduced relative to that in the AX model. In contrast with previous interpretations invoking barotropic instability and related horizontal mixing processes as a mechanism detrimental to the spin-up process, the results indicate that 3-D eddy processes associated with vortical plume structures can assist the intensification process by contributing to a radial contraction of the maximum tangential velocity and to a vertical extension of tangential winds through the depth of the troposphere. These plumes contribute significantly also to the azimuthally-averaged heating rate and the corresponding azimuthal-mean overturning circulation. The comparisons show that the resolved 3-D eddy momentum fluxes above the boundary layer exhibit counter-gradient characteristics and are generally not represented properly by the subgrid-scale parameterizations in the AX configuration. The resolved eddy fluxes act to support the contraction and intensification of the maximum tangential winds. The comparisons indicate fundamental differences between convective organization in the 3-D and AX configurations for meteorologically relevant forecast time scales. While the radial and vertical gradients of the system-scale angular rotation provide a hostile environment for deep convection in the 3-D model, with a corresponding tendency to strain the convective elements in the tangential direction, deep convection in the AX model does not suffer this tendency. Also, since during the 3-D intensification process the convection has not yet organized into annular rings, the azimuthally-averaged heating rate and radial gradient thereof is considerably less than that in the AX model. This lack of organization results broadly in a slower intensification rate in the 3-D model and leads ultimately to a weaker mature vortex after 12 days of model integration. While axisymmetric heating rates in the 3-D model are weaker than those in the AX model, local heating rates in the 3-D model exceed those in the AX model and at times the vortex in the 3-D model intensifies more rapidly than AX. Analyses of the 3-D model output do not support a recent hypothesis concerning the key role of small-scale vertical mixing processes in the upper-tropospheric outflow in controlling the intensification process. In the 3-D model, surface drag plays a particularly important role in the intensification process for the prototype intensification problem on meteorologically relevant time scales by helping foster the organization of convection in azimuth. There is a radical difference in the behaviour of the 3-D and AX simulations when the surface drag is reduced or increased from realistic values. Borrowing from ideas developed in a recent paper, we give a partial explanation for this difference in behaviour. Our results provide new qualitative and quantitative insight into the differences between the asymmetric and symmetric dynamics of tropical cyclones and would appear to have important consequences for the formulation of a fluid dynamical theory of tropical cyclone intensification and mature intensity. In particular, the results point to some fundamental limitations of strict axisymmetric theory and modelling for representing the azimuthally-averaged behaviour of tropical cyclones in three dimensions.

scholarly journals Predictability of Deep Convection in Idealized and Operational Forecasts: Effects of Radar Data Assimilation, Orography, and Synoptic Weather Regime

2019 ◽  
Vol 148 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Bachmann ◽  
Christian Keil ◽  
George C. Craig ◽  
Martin Weissmann ◽  
Christian A. Welzbacher
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Beneficial Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Radar Data Assimilation

Abstract We investigate the practical predictability limits of deep convection in a state-of-the-art, high-resolution, limited-area ensemble prediction system. A combination of sophisticated predictability measures, namely, believable and decorrelation scale, are applied to determine the predictable scales of short-term forecasts in a hierarchy of model configurations. First, we consider an idealized perfect model setup that includes both small-scale and synoptic-scale perturbations. We find increased predictability in the presence of orography and a strongly beneficial impact of radar data assimilation, which extends the forecast horizon by up to 6 h. Second, we examine realistic COSMO-KENDA simulations, including assimilation of radar and conventional data and a representation of model errors, for a convectively active two-week summer period over Germany. The results confirm increased predictability in orographic regions. We find that both latent heat nudging and ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of radar data lead to increased forecast skill, but the impact is smaller than in the idealized experiments. This highlights the need to assimilate spatially and temporally dense data, but also indicates room for further improvement. Finally, the examination of operational COSMO-DE-EPS ensemble forecasts for three summer periods confirms the beneficial impact of orography in a statistical sense and also reveals increased predictability in weather regimes controlled by synoptic forcing, as defined by the convective adjustment time scale.

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