scholarly journals Four-dimensional variational data assimilation for inverse modelling of atmospheric methane emissions: method and comparison with synthesis inversion

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (21) ◽  
pp. 6341-6353 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. F. Meirink ◽  
P. Bergamaschi ◽  
M. C. Krol
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Inverse Modelling ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Full Potential ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract. A four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system for inverse modelling of atmospheric methane emissions is presented. The system is based on the TM5 atmospheric transport model. It can be used for assimilating large volumes of measurements, in particular satellite observations and quasi-continuous in-situ observations, and at the same time it enables the optimization of a large number of model parameters, specifically grid-scale emission rates. Furthermore, the variational method allows to estimate uncertainties in posterior emissions. Here, the system is applied to optimize monthly methane emissions over a 1-year time window on the basis of surface observations from the NOAA-ESRL network. The results are rigorously compared with an analogous inversion by Bergamaschi et al. (2007), which was based on the traditional synthesis approach. The posterior emissions as well as their uncertainties obtained in both inversions show a high degree of consistency. At the same time we illustrate the advantage of 4D-Var in reducing aggregation errors by optimizing emissions at the grid scale of the transport model. The full potential of the assimilation system is exploited in Meirink et al. (2008), who use satellite observations of column-averaged methane mixing ratios to optimize emissions at high spatial resolution, taking advantage of the zooming capability of the TM5 model.

scholarly journals Technical Note: Four-dimensional variational data assimilation for inverse modelling of atmospheric methane emissions: method and comparison with synthesis inversion

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 12023-12052 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. F. Meirink ◽  
P. Bergamaschi ◽  
M. C. Krol
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Inverse Modelling ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Full Potential ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract. A four-dimensional variational (4D-var) data assimilation system for inverse modelling of atmospheric methane emissions is presented. The system is based on the TM5 atmospheric transport model. It can be used for assimilating large volumes of measurements, in particular satellite observations and quasi-continuous in-situ observations, and at the same time it enables the optimization of a large number of model parameters, specifically grid-scale emission rates. Furthermore, the variational method allows to estimate uncertainties in posterior emissions. Here, the system is applied to optimize monthly methane emissions over a 1-year time window on the basis of surface observations from the NOAA-ESRL network. The results are rigorously compared with an analogous inversion by Bergamaschi et al. (2007), which was based on the traditional synthesis approach. The posterior emissions as well as their uncertainties obtained in both inversions show a high degree of consistency. At the same time we illustrate the advantage of 4D-Var in reducing aggregation errors by optimizing emissions at the grid scale of the transport model. The full potential of the assimilation system is exploited in Meirink et al. (2008), who use satellite observations of column-averaged methane mixing ratios to optimize emissions at high spatial resolution, taking advantage of the zooming capability of the TM5 model.

scholarly journals A joint data assimilation system (Tan-Tracker) to simultaneously estimate surface CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes and 3-D atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations from observations

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 24755-24784 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Tian ◽  
Z. Xie ◽  
Y. Liu ◽  
Z. Cai ◽  
Y. Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Dynamical Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Atmospheric Observations ◽  
Atmospheric Transport Model ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract. To quantitatively estimate CO2 surface fluxes (CFs) from atmospheric observations, a joint data assimilation system ("Tan-Tracker") is developed by incorporating a joint data assimilation framework into the GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport model. In Tan-Tracker, we choose an identity operator as the CF dynamical model to describe the CFs' evolution, which constitutes an augmented dynamical model together with the GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport model. In this case, the large-scale vector made up of CFs and CO2 concentrations is taken as the prognostic variable for the augmented dynamical model. And thus both CO2 concentrations and CFs are jointly assimilated by using the atmospheric observations (e.g., the in-situ observations or satellite measurements). In contrast, in the traditional joint data assimilation frameworks, CFs are usually treated as the model parameters and form a state-parameter augmented vector jointly with CO2 concentrations. The absence of a CF dynamical model will certainly result in a large waste of observed information since any useful information for CFs' improvement achieved by the current data assimilation procedure could not be used in the next assimilation cycle. Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are carefully designed to evaluate the Tan-Tracker system in comparison to its simplified version (referred to as TT-S) with only CFs taken as the prognostic variables. It is found that our Tan-Tracker system is capable of outperforming TT-S with higher assimilation precision for both CO2 concentrations and CO2 fluxes, mainly due to the simultaneous assimilation of CO2 concentrations and CFs in our Tan-Tracker data assimilation system.

scholarly journals CTDAS-Lagrange v1.0: A high-resolution data assimilation system for regional carbon dioxide observations

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei He ◽  
Ivar R. van der Velde ◽  
Arlyn E. Andrews ◽  
Colm Sweeney ◽  
John Miller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Lateral Boundary ◽  
Lateral Boundary Conditions ◽  
Sensitivity Tests ◽  
Lagrange System ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Flux Adjustment ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract. We have implemented a regional carbon dioxide data assimilation system based on the CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell (CTDAS) and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model, the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model driven by the Weather Forecast and Research meteorological fields (WRF-STILT). With this system, named as CTDAS‑Lagrange, we simultaneously optimize terrestrial biosphere fluxes and four parameters that adjust the lateral boundary conditions (BCs) against CO2 observations from the NOAA ESRL North America tall tower and aircraft Programmable Flask Packages (PFPs) sampling program. Least-squares optimization is performed with a time-stepping ensemble Kalman smoother, over a time window of 10 days and assimilating sequentially a time series of observations. Because the WRF-STILT footprints are pre-computed, it is computationally efficient to run the CTDAS-Lagrange system. To estimate the uncertainties of the optimized fluxes from the system, we performed sensitivity tests with various a priori biosphere fluxes (SiBCASA, SiB3, CT2013B) and BCs (optimized mole fraction fields from CT2013B and CTE2014, and an empirical data set derived from aircraft observations), as well as with a variety of choices on the ways that fluxes are adjusted (additive or multiplicative), covariance length scales, biosphere flux covariances, BC parameter uncertainties, and model-data mismatches. In pseudo-data experiments, we show that in our implementation the additive flux adjustment method is more flexible in optimizing NEE than the multiplicative flux adjustment method, and that the CTDAS-Lagrange system has the ability to correct for the potential biases in the lateral boundary conditions and to resolve large biases in the prior biosphere fluxes. Using real observations, we have derived a range of estimates for the optimized carbon fluxes from a series of sensitivity tests, which places the North American carbon sink for the year 2010 in a range from −0.92 to −1.26 PgC/yr. This is comparable to the TM5-based estimates of CarbonTracker (version CT2016, −0.91 ± 1.10 PgC/yr) and CarbonTracker Europe (version CTE2016, −0.91 ± 0.31 PgC/yr). We conclude that CTDAS-Lagrange can offer a versatile and computationally attractive alternative to these global systems for regional estimates of carbon fluxes, which can take advantage of high-resolution Lagrangian footprints that are increasingly easy to obtain.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the recent methane budget to LMDz sub-grid scale physical parameterizations

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 11853-11888
Author(s):  
R. Locatelli ◽  
P. Bousquet ◽  
M. Saunois ◽  
F. Chevallier ◽  
C. Cressot
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Data ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Inverse Modelling ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Methane Budget ◽  
Physical Parameterizations

Abstract. With the densification of surface observing networks and the development of remote sensing of greenhouse gases from space, estimations of methane (CH4) sources and sinks by inverse modelling face new challenges. Indeed, the chemical transport model used to link the flux space with the mixing ratio space must be able to represent these different types of constraints for providing consistent flux estimations. Here we quantify the impact of sub-grid scale physical parameterization errors on the global methane budget inferred by inverse modelling using the same inversion set-up but different physical parameterizations within one chemical-transport model. Two different schemes for vertical diffusion, two others for deep convection, and one additional for thermals in the planetary boundary layer are tested. Different atmospheric methane datasets are used as constraints (surface observations or satellite retrievals). At the global scale, methane emissions differ, on average, from 4.1 Tg CH4 per year due to the use of different sub-grid scale parameterizations. Inversions using satellite total-column retrieved by GOSAT satellite are less impacted, at the global scale, by errors in physical parameterizations. Focusing on large-scale atmospheric transport, we show that inversions using the deep convection scheme of Emanuel (1991) derive smaller interhemispheric gradient in methane emissions. At regional scale, the use of different sub-grid scale parameterizations induces uncertainties ranging from 1.2 (2.7%) to 9.4% (14.2%) of methane emissions in Africa and Eurasia Boreal respectively when using only surface measurements from the background (extended) surface network. When using only satellite data, we show that the small biases found in inversions using GOSAT-CH4 data and a coarser version of the transport model were actually masking a poor representation of the stratosphere–troposphere gradient in the model. Improving the stratosphere–troposphere gradient reveals a larger bias in GOSAT-CH4 satellite data, which largely amplifies inconsistencies between surface and satellite inversions. A simple bias correction is proposed. The results of this work provide the level of confidence one can have for recent methane inversions relatively to physical parameterizations included in chemical-transport models.

scholarly journals The CarbonTracker Data Assimilation System for CO<sub>2</sub> and <i>δ</i><sup>13</sup>C (CTDAS-C13 v1.0): retrieving information on land–atmosphere exchange processes

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 283-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivar R. van der Velde ◽  
John B. Miller ◽  
Michiel K. van der Molen ◽  
Pieter P. Tans ◽  
Bruce H. Vaughn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Carbon Balance ◽  
Modular Design ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Co2 Exchange ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Terrestrial Biosphere ◽  
Global Carbon ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract. To improve our understanding of the global carbon balance and its representation in terrestrial biosphere models, we present here a first dual-species application of the CarbonTracker Data Assimilation System (CTDAS). The system's modular design allows for assimilating multiple atmospheric trace gases simultaneously to infer exchange fluxes at the Earth surface. In the prototype discussed here, we interpret signals recorded in observed carbon dioxide (CO2) along with observed ratios of its stable isotopologues 13CO2∕12CO2 (δ13C). The latter is in particular a valuable tracer to untangle CO2 exchange from land and oceans. Potentially, it can also be used as a proxy for continent-wide drought stress in plants, largely because the ratio of 13CO2 and 12CO2 molecules removed from the atmosphere by plants is dependent on moisture conditions.The dual-species CTDAS system varies the net exchange fluxes of both 13CO2 and CO2 in ocean and terrestrial biosphere models to create an ensemble of 13CO2 and CO2 fluxes that propagates through an atmospheric transport model. Based on differences between observed and simulated 13CO2 and CO2 mole fractions (and thus δ13C) our Bayesian minimization approach solves for weekly adjustments to both net fluxes and isotopic terrestrial discrimination that minimizes the difference between observed and estimated mole fractions.With this system, we are able to estimate changes in terrestrial δ13C exchange on seasonal and continental scales in the Northern Hemisphere where the observational network is most dense. Our results indicate a decrease in stomatal conductance on a continent-wide scale during a severe drought. These changes could only be detected after applying combined atmospheric CO2 and δ13C constraints as done in this work. The additional constraints on surface CO2 exchange from δ13C observations neither affected the estimated carbon fluxes nor compromised our ability to match observed CO2 variations. The prototype presented here can be of great benefit not only to study the global carbon balance but also to potentially function as a data-driven diagnostic to assess multiple leaf-level exchange parameterizations in carbon-climate models that influence the CO2, water, isotope, and energy balance.

scholarly journals Monitoring global tropospheric OH concentrations using satellite observations of atmospheric methane

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 15959-15973 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuzhong Zhang ◽  
Daniel J. Jacob ◽  
Joannes D. Maasakkers ◽  
Melissa P. Sulprizio ◽  
Jian-Xiong Sheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
The Past ◽  
Methyl Chloroform ◽  
Systematic Component ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
Better Than

Abstract. The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the main tropospheric oxidant and the main sink for atmospheric methane. The global abundance of OH has been monitored for the past decades using atmospheric methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) as a proxy. This method is becoming ineffective as atmospheric CH3CCl3 concentrations decline. Here we propose that satellite observations of atmospheric methane in the short-wave infrared (SWIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) can provide an alternative method for monitoring global OH concentrations. The premise is that the atmospheric signature of the methane sink from oxidation by OH is distinct from that of methane emissions. We evaluate this method in an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework using synthetic SWIR and TIR satellite observations representative of the TROPOMI and CrIS instruments, respectively. The synthetic observations are interpreted with a Bayesian inverse analysis, optimizing both gridded methane emissions and global OH concentrations. The optimization is done analytically to provide complete error accounting, including error correlations between posterior emissions and OH concentrations. The potential bias caused by prior errors in the 3-D seasonal OH distribution is examined using OH fields from 12 different models in the ACCMIP archive. We find that the satellite observations of methane have the potential to constrain the global tropospheric OH concentration with a precision better than 1 % and an accuracy of about 3 % for SWIR and 7 % for TIR. The inversion can successfully separate the effects of perturbations to methane emissions and to OH concentrations. Interhemispheric differences in OH concentrations can also be successfully retrieved. Error estimates may be overoptimistic because we assume in this OSSE that errors are strictly random and have no systematic component. The availability of TROPOMI and CrIS data will soon provide an opportunity to test the method with actual observations.

scholarly journals Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 9917-9937 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Locatelli ◽  
P. Bousquet ◽  
F. Chevallier ◽  
A. Fortems-Cheney ◽  
S. Szopa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Inverse Modelling ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Inverse Systems ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System) inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure) is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr−1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr−1 in North America to 7 Tg yr−1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively). At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly question the consistency of transport model errors in current inverse systems. Future inversions should include more accurately prescribed observation covariances matrices in order to limit the impact of transport model errors on estimated methane fluxes.

scholarly journals Extended and refined multi sensor reanalysis of total ozone for the period 1970–2012

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 3283-3319 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. van der A ◽  
M. A. F. Allaart ◽  
H. J. Eskes
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Data Assimilation Technique ◽  
Ozone Column

Abstract. The ozone multi-sensor reanalysis (MSR) is a multi-decadal ozone column data record constructed using all available ozone column satellite datasets, surface Brewer and Dobson observations and a data assimilation technique with detailed error modelling. The result is a high-resolution time series of 6 hourly global ozone column fields and forecast error fields that may be used for ozone trend analyses as well as detailed case studies. The ozone MSR is produced in two steps. First, the latest reprocessed versions of all available ozone column satellite datasets are collected, and are corrected for biases as function of solar zenith angle, viewing angle, time (trend), and stratospheric temperature using Brewer/Dobson ground measurements from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC; http://www.woudc.org/). Subsequently the debiased satellite observations are assimilated within the ozone chemistry and data assimilation model TMDAM driven by meteorological analyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The MSR2 (MSR version 2) reanalysis upgrade described in this paper consists of an ozone record for the 43 year period 1970–2012. The chemistry-transport model and data assimilation system have been adapted to improve the resolution, error modelling and processing speed. BUV satellite observations have been included for the period 1970–1977. The total record is extended with 13 years compared to the first version of the ozone multi sensor reanalysis, the MSR1. The latest total ozone retrievals of 15 satellite instruments are used: BUV-Nimbus4, TOMS-Nimbus7, TOMS-EP, SBUV-7, -9, -11, -14, -16, -17, -18, -19, GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI and GOME-2. The resolution of the model runs, assimilation and output is increased from 2° x 3° to 1° x 1°. The analysis is driven by three-hourly meteorology from the ERA-interim reanalysis of ECMWF starting from 1979, and ERA-40 before that date. The chemistry parameterization has been updated. The performance of the MSR2 analysis is studied with the help of observation-minus-forecast (OmF) departures from the data assimilation, by comparisons with the individual station observations and with ozone sondes. The OmF statistics show that the mean bias of the MSR2 analyses is less than 1% with respect to debiased satellite observations after 1979.

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