scholarly journals The effect of ENSO-induced rainfall and circulation changes on the direct and indirect radiative forcing from Indonesian biomass-burning aerosols

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 5247-5292
Author(s):  
A. Chrastansky ◽  
L. D. Rotstayn
Keyword(s):  
Biomass Burning ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Radiative Effects ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies

Abstract. Emissions of biomass-burning aerosols from the Indonesian region are known to vary in response to rainfall anomalies associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the effects of these rainfall anomalies on regional aerosol burdens and radiative forcing have not been investigated. In this study, we simulate the effects of ENSO-related changes in (1) emissions and (2) rainfall and circulation on the radiative forcing of Indonesian biomass-burning aerosols. We find that rainfall and circulation anomalies, as well as emissions, contribute substantially to the direct and first indirect radiative effects. We compare two experiments that are performed with the CSIRO-Mk3.6 atmospheric global climate model (GCM). The first experiment (AMIP) consists of a pair of runs that respectively represent El Niño and La Niña conditions. In these runs, the distribution of aerosols is simulated under the influence of realistic Indonesian biomass-burning aerosol emissions and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for 1997 (El Niño) and 2000 (La Niña). The second experiment (CLIM) is identical to AMIP, but is forced by climatological SSTs, so that in CLIM meteorological differences between 1997 and 2000 are suppressed. The comparison of AMIP and CLIM shows that the radiative forcing anomalies associated with ENSO (El Niño minus La Niña) are substantially stronger when ENSO-related SST anomalies are taken into account. This is true for both for the direct and the first indirect effects. SST-induced changes in rainfall and wind fields enhance the anomaly of aerosol burdens over Indonesia and the equatorial Indian Ocean. This, in turn, has an indirect effect on cloud properties due to changes in the concentration and radii of cloud droplets. Our results suggest that the direct and indirect radiative effects of Indonesian biomass-burning emissions would be underestimated if feedbacks of ENSO-related SST variations on radiative forcing are not taken into account.

scholarly journals The effect of ENSO-induced rainfall and circulation changes on the direct and indirect radiative forcing from Indonesian biomass-burning aerosols

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 11395-11416 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Chrastansky ◽  
L. D. Rotstayn
Keyword(s):  
Biomass Burning ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Aerosol Emissions ◽  
Indirect Radiative Forcing

Abstract. Emissions of biomass-burning aerosols from the Indonesian region are known to vary in response to rainfall anomalies associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For the severe El Niño-related drought in 1997, there have been several attempts to estimate the direct radiative forcing from increased aerosol emissions over Indonesia, as well as the associated feedbacks on climate. However, these estimates have not considered indirect aerosol effects. Another question that has not been addressed is whether the effect of ENSO-related circulation and rainfall anomalies on radiative forcing is significant relative to the effect of changes in emissions. In this study, we analyse the direct and first indirect radiative forcing from El Niño-related increased emissions of Indonesian biomass-burning aerosols, with and without the influence of ENSO-related rainfall and circulation anomalies. We compare two experiments that are performed with the CSIRO-Mk3.6 atmospheric global climate model (GCM). The first experiment (AMIP) consists of a pair of runs that respectively represent El Niño and La Niña conditions. In these runs, the distribution of aerosols is simulated under the influence of realistic Indonesian biomass-burning aerosol emissions and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for 1997 (El Niño) and 2000 (La Niña). The second experiment (CLIM) is identical to AMIP, but is forced by climatological SSTs, so that in CLIM meteorological differences between 1997 and 2000 are suppressed. The comparison of AMIP and CLIM shows that the aerosol radiative forcing anomalies associated with ENSO (El Niño minus La Niña) are substantially stronger when ENSO-related SST anomalies are taken into account. For the first indirect effect, the influence of SST-induced changes in rainfall and circulation exceeds that of changes in emissions. For the direct aerosol forcing, the influence of changes in SSTs and emissions are of comparable magnitude. Averaged over the Indonesian region (5.6° N–11.2° S, 96.6° E–150.9° E), the first indirect forcing is −0.7 Wm−2 in CLIM and −2.2 Wm−2 in AMIP during the months July to November. The direct aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere (surface) is −1.0 (−5.3) Wm−2 in CLIM and −1.8 (−9.1) Wm−2 in AMIP during the same period. Our results suggest that (a) the indirect aerosol effect from biomass-burning aerosols is strong enough to play an important role for impact assessments, and (b) that impacts of biomass-burning aerosols would be considerably underestimated if feedbacks of ENSO-related SST variations on radiative forcing are not taken into account.

scholarly journals The Impact of Obliquity Change on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña Climate Episodes

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C. Rivera
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
La Niña ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

An alternative physical mechanism is proposed to describe the occurrence of the episodic El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Nina climatic phenomena. This is based on the earthquake-perturbed obliquity change (EPOCH) model previously discovered as a major cause of the global climate change problem. Massive quakes impart a very strong oceanic force that can move the moon which in turn pulls the earth’s axis and change the planetary obliquity. Analysis of the annual geomagnetic north-pole shift and global seismic data revealed this previously undiscovered force. Using a higher obliquity in the global climate model EdGCM and constant greenhouse gas forcing showed that the seismic-induced polar motion and associated enhanced obliquity could be the major mechanism governing the mysterious climate anomalies attributed to El Nino and La Nina cycles.

scholarly journals Enlarged Asymmetry of Tropical Pacific Rainfall Anomalies Induced by El Niño and La Niña under Global Warming

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 1327-1343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Huang ◽  
Dong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Mean State

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important sources of climate interannual variability. A prominent characteristic of ENSO is the asymmetric, or so-called nonlinear, local rainfall response to El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN), in which the maximum rainfall anomalies during EN are located farther east than those during LN. In this study, the changes in rainfall anomalies during EN and LN are examined based on the multimodel ensemble mean results of 32 CMIP5 models under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. It is found that robust EN–LN asymmetric changes in rainfall anomalies exist. The rainfall anomalies during EN and LN both shift eastward and intensify under global warming, but the eastward shift during EN is farther east than that during LN. A simplified moisture budget decomposition method is applied to study the mechanism of the asymmetric response. The results show that the robust increase in mean-state moisture can enlarge the EN–LN asymmetry of the rainfall anomalies, and the spatial relative changes in mean-state SST with an El Niño–like pattern can shift the rainfall anomalies farther east during EN than during LN, enlarging the difference in the zonal locations of the rainfall response to EN and LN. The role of the relative changes in mean-state SST can also be interpreted as follows: the decreased zonal gradient of mean-state SST due to El Niño–like warming leads to a larger EN–LN asymmetry of rainfall anomalies under a future warming climate.

Rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho, no Rio Grande do Sul, não difere entre eventos El Niño Oscilação Sul

Agrometeoros ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronaldo Matzenauer ◽  
Bernadete Radin ◽  
Alberto Cargnelutti Filho
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Income Data ◽  
The Relationship

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a relação entre o fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul - ENOS e o rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho no Rio Grande do Sul e verificar a hipótese de que os eventos El Niño são favoráveis e os eventos La Niña são prejudiciais ao rendimento de grãos das culturas. Foram utilizados dados de rendimento de grãos dos anos agrícolas de 1974/75 a 2016/17, e relacionados com as ocorrências de eventos ENOS. Foram analisados os dados de rendimento observados na colheita e os dados estimados com a remoção da tendência tecnológica. Os resultados mostraram que não houve diferença significativa do rendimento médio de grãos de soja e de milho na comparação entre os eventos ENOS. Palavras-chave: El Niño, La Niña, safras agrícolas. Abstract – The objective of this work was to evaluate the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon with the grain yield of soybean and maize in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil and to verify the hypothesis that the El Niño events are favorable and the La Niña events are harmful to the culture’s grain yields. Were used data from the agricultural years of 1974/75 to 2016/17, and related to the occurrence of ENOS events. We analyzed income data observed at harvest and estimated data with technological tendency was removed. The results showed that there was no significant difference in the average yield of soybeans and corn in the comparison between events.

scholarly journals El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7987
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Elie Bouri ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Realized Variance ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Heating Oil ◽  
Price Movements

We use the heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model to compute out-of-sample forecasts of the monthly realized variance (RV) of movements of the spot and futures price of heating oil. We extend the HAR–RV model to include the role of El Niño and La Niña episodes, as captured by the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). Using data from June 1986 to April 2021, we show evidence for several model configurations that both El Niño and La Niña phases contain information useful for forecasting subsequent to the realized variance of price movements beyond the predictive value already captured by the HAR–RV model. The predictive value of La Niña phases, however, seems to be somewhat stronger than the predictive value of El Niño phases. Our results have important implications for investors, as well as from the perspective of sustainable decisions involving the environment.

scholarly journals Role of the Indo-Pacific Interbasin Coupling in Predicting Asymmetric ENSO Transition and Duration

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 3321-3335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masamichi Ohba ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Enso Asymmetry ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Warm and cold phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit a significant asymmetry in their transition/duration such that El Niño tends to shift rapidly to La Niña after the mature phase, whereas La Niña tends to persist for up to 2 yr. The possible role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean (IO) in this ENSO asymmetry is investigated using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Decoupled-IO experiments are conducted to assess asymmetric IO feedbacks to the ongoing ENSO evolution in the Pacific. Identical-twin forecast experiments show that a coupling of the IO extends the skillful prediction of the ENSO warm phase by about one year, which was about 8 months in the absence of the IO coupling, in which a significant drop of the prediction skill around the boreal spring (known as the spring prediction barrier) is found. The effect of IO coupling on the predictability of the Pacific SST is significantly weaker in the decay phase of La Niña. Warm IO SST anomalies associated with El Niño enhance surface easterlies over the equatorial western Pacific and hence facilitate the El Niño decay. However, this mechanism cannot be applied to cold IO SST anomalies during La Niña. The result of these CGCM experiments estimates that approximately one-half of the ENSO asymmetry arises from the phase-dependent nature of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling.

scholarly journals Response of regional climate and glacier ice proxies to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the subtropical Andes

2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 173-211
Author(s):  
E. Dietze ◽  
A. Kleber ◽  
M. Schwikowski
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
La Niña ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ion Concentrations ◽  
Major Ion ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Glacier Ice

Abstract. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important element of earth's ocean-climate system. To further understand its past variability, proxy records from climate archives need to be studied. Ice cores from high alpine glaciers may contain high resolution ENSO proxy information, given the glacier site is climatologically sensitive to ENSO. We investigated signals of ENSO in the climate of the subtropical Andes in the proximity of Cerro Tapado glacier (30°08' S, 69°55' W, 5550 m a.s.l.), where a 36 m long ice core was drilled in 1999 (Ginot, 2001). We used annual and semi-annual precipitation and temperature time series from regional meteorological stations and interpolated grids for correlation analyses with ENSO indices and ice core-derived proxies (net accumulation, stable isotope ratio δ18O, major ion concentrations). The total time period investigated here comprises 1900 to 2000, but varies with data sets. Only in the western, i.e. Mediterranean Andes precipitation is higher (lower) during El Niño (La Niña) events, especially at higher altitudes, due to the latitudinal shift of frontal activity during austral winters. However, the temperature response to ENSO is more stable in space and time, being higher (lower) during El Niño (La Niña) events in most of the subtropical Andes all year long. From a northwest to southeast teleconnection gradient, we suggest a regional water vapour feedback triggers temperature anomalies as a function of ENSO-related changes in regional pressure systems, Pacific sea surface temperature and tropical moisture input. Tapado glacier ice proxies are found to be predominantly connected to eastern Andean summer rain climate, which contradicts previous studies and the modern mean spatial boundary between subtropical summer and winter rain climate derived from the grid data. The only ice core proxy showing a response to ENSO is the major ion concentrations, via local temperature indicating reduced sublimation and mineral dust input during El Niño years.

scholarly journals EL NINO, LA NINA, DAN PENAWARAN PANGAN DI JAWA, INDONESIA

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 257
Author(s):  
Arini Wahyu Utami ◽  
Jamhari Jamhari ◽  
Suhatmini Hardyastuti
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regression Function ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

Paddy and maize are two important food crops in Indonesia and mainly produced in Java Island. This research aimed to know the impact of El Nino and La Nina on paddy and maize farmer’s supply in Java. Cross sectional data from four provinces in Java was combined with time series data during 1987-2006. Paddy supply was estimated using log model, while maize supply used autoregressive model; each was estimated using two types of regression function. First, it included dummy variable of El Nino and La Nina to know their influence into paddy and maize supply. Second, Southern Oscillation Index was used to analyze the supply changing when El Nino or La Nina occur. The result showed that El Nino and La Nina did not influence paddy supply, while La Nina influenced maize supply in Java. Maize supply increased when La Nina occurred.

Classification of El Niño and La Niña years for water resources management in Alberta

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (12) ◽  
pp. 1093-1098
Author(s):  
Zahidul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
La Nina

Classification of El Niño and La Niña years in a historical time period is necessary to analyze their impacts on hydrology and water resources management. In this study, various El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, and how they are used to classify El Niño or La Niña years have been reviewed. Based on the review, a simple method of classifying El Niño or La Niña years has been proposed.

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