scholarly journals Different long-term trends of the oxygen red 630.0 nm line nightglow intensity as the result of lowering the ionosphere F2 layer

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
pp. 2069-2080 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. B. Gudadze ◽  
G. G. Didebulidze ◽  
L. N. Lomidze ◽  
G. Sh. Javakhishvili ◽  
M. A. Marsagishvili ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Electron Density ◽  
Line Intensity ◽  
Peak Height ◽  
Height Distribution ◽  
Theoretical Simulation ◽  
Type Layer ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Long Term Trend

Abstract. Long-term observations of total nightglow intensity of the atomic oxygen red 630.0 nm line at Abastumani (41.75° N, 42.82° E) in 1957–1993 and measurements of the ionosphere F2 layer parameters from the Tbilisi ionosphere station (41.65° N, 44.75° E) in 1963–1986 have been analyzed. It is shown that a decrease in the long-term trend of the mean annual red 630.0 nm line intensity from the pre-midnight value (+0.770±1.045 R/year) to its minimum negative value (−1.080±0.670 R/year) at the midnight/after midnight is a possible result of the observed lowering of the peak height of the ionosphere F2 layer electron density hmF2 (−0.455±0.343 km/year). A theoretical simulation is carried out using a simple Chapman-type layer (damping in time) for the height distribution of the F2 layer electron density. The estimated values of the lowering in the hmF2, the increase in the red line intensity at pre-midnight and its decrease at midnight/after midnight are close to their observational ones, when a negative trend in the total neutral density of the upper atmosphere and an increase in the mean northward wind (or its possible consequence – a decrease in the southward one) are assumed.

Long-term variations of the oxygen red 630 nm line nightglow intensity

2007 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
N B Gudadze ◽  
G G Didebulidze ◽  
G Sh. Javakhishvili ◽  
M G Shepherd ◽  
M V Vardosanidze
Keyword(s):  
Line Intensity ◽  
Peak Height ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Long Term Variations ◽  
Red Line

The long-term data set of total nightglow intensity of the oxygen red 630.0~nm line observed at Abastumani (41.8°N, 42.8°E) between 1957–1993 is investigated. The long-term trend and characteristic variations in solar radiation during an 11 year cycle of the red-line intensity are different after astronomical twilight (premidnight) and at midnight. The amplitude of deviation of the red-line intensity from its mean value at solar maximum and (or) minimum phase is greatest after astronomical twilight and decreases toward midnight. The long-term trend of these variations changes from its value about 0.74 R/year premidnight to its minimum negative value of about –1.92 R/year at and after midnight. This behavior of the long-term trend is considered as a possible result of an increase in electron density below the peak height (hmF2) of the ionospheric F2 layer and lowering of the height hmF2 after midnight predicted by the TIME-GCM model on the assumption of an increase in density of greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. The third-order regression equation (with different solar activity indices) is considered to be convenient for describing long-term variations in the mean annual red-line intensity.PACS Nos.: 94.10.Rk, 94.20.Ji, 92.60.Vb

scholarly journals Evolutionary dynamics of neutral phenotypes under DNA substitution models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shadi Zabad ◽  
Alan M Moses
Keyword(s):  
Dna Sequences ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Gc Content ◽  
Stabilizing Selection ◽  
Restoring Force ◽  
Dna Substitution ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Molecular Phenotypes

AbstractWe study the evolution of quantitative molecular traits in the absence of selection. Using a simple theory based on Felsenstein’s 1981 DNA substitution model, we predict a linear restoring force on the mean of an additive phenotype. Remarkably, the mean dynamics are independent of the effect sizes and genotype and are similar to the widely-used OU model for stabilizing selection. We confirm the predictions empirically using additive molecular phenotypes calculated from ancestral reconstructions of putatively unconstrained DNA sequences in primate genomes. We show that the OU model is favoured by inference software even when applied to GC content of unconstrained sequences or simulations of DNA evolution. We predict and confirm empirically that the dynamics of the variance are more complicated than those predicted by the OU model, and show that our results for the restoring force of mutation hold even for non-additive phenotypes, such as number of transcription factor binding sites, longest encoded peptide and folding propensity of the encoded peptide. Our results have implications for efforts to infer selection based on quantitative phenotype dynamics as well as to understand long-term trends in evolution of quantitative molecular traits.

Assessment of Nonresearch Industry Payments to Otolaryngologists in 2014 and 2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 158 (6) ◽  
pp. 1028-1034 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Pathak ◽  
Rance J. T. Fujiwara ◽  
Saral Mehra
Keyword(s):  
Annual Variation ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Large Change ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Food And Beverage ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Open Payments ◽  
Made In

Objective To characterize, describe, and compare nonresearch industry payments made to otolaryngologists in 2014 and 2015. Additionally, to describe industry payment variation within otolaryngology and among other surgical specialties. Study Design Retrospective cross-sectional database analysis. Setting Open Payments Database. Subjects and Methods Nonresearch payments made to US otolaryngologists were characterized and compared by payment amount, nature of payment, sponsor, and census region between 2014 and 2015. Payments in otolaryngology were compared with those in other surgical specialties. Results From 2014 to 2015, there was an increase in the number of compensated otolaryngologists (7903 vs 7946) and in the mean payment per compensated otolaryngologist ($1096 vs $1242), as well as a decrease in the median payment per compensated otolaryngologist ($169 vs $165, P = .274). Approximately 90% of total payments made in both years were attributed to food and beverage. Northeast census region otolaryngologists received the highest median payment in 2014 and 2015. Compared with other surgical specialists, otolaryngologists received the lowest mean payment in 2014 and 2015 and the second-lowest and lowest median payment in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Conclusion The increase in the mean payment and number of compensated otolaryngologists can be explained by normal annual variation, stronger industry-otolaryngologist relationships, or improved reporting; additional years of data and improved public awareness of the Sunshine Act will facilitate determining long-term trends. The large change in disparity between the mean and median from 2014 to 2015 suggests greater payment variation. Otolaryngologists continue to demonstrate limited industry ties when compared with other surgical specialists.

scholarly journals Long-term trends in the relation between daytime and nighttime values of <I>fo</I>F2

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1199-1206 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Danilov
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Thermospheric Winds ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Ionospheric Sounding ◽  
Limiting Value

Abstract. The data from the vertical ionospheric sounding for 12 stations over the world were analyzed to find the relation between the values of foF2 for 02:00 LT and 14:00 LT of the same day. It is found that, in general, there exists a negative correlation between foF2(02) and foF2(14). The value of the correlation coefficient R(foF2) can be in some cases high enough and reach minus 0.7–0.8. The value of R(foF2) demonstrates a well pronounced seasonal variations, the highest negative values being observed at the equinox periods of the year. It is also found that R(foF2) depends on geomagnetic activity: the magnitude of R(foF2) is the highest for the choice of only magnetically quiet days (Ap<6), decreasing with the increase of the limiting value of Ap. For a fixed limitation on Ap, the value of R(foF2) depends also on solar activity. Apparently, the effects found are related to thermospheric winds. Analysis of long series of the vertical sounding data shows that there is a long-term trend in R(foF2) with a statistically significant increase in the R(foF2) magnitude after about 1980. Similar analysis is performed for the foF2(02)/foF2(14) ratio itself. The ratio also demonstrates a systematic trend after 1980. Both trends are interpreted in terms of long-term changes in thermospheric circulation.

Trends in match injury risk in professional male rugby union: a 16-season review of 10 851 match injuries in the English Premiership (2002–2019): the Professional Rugby Injury Surveillance Project

2020 ◽  
pp. bjsports-2020-102529
Author(s):  
Stephen W West ◽  
Lindsay Starling ◽  
Simon Kemp ◽  
Sean Williams ◽  
Matthew Cross ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Injury Risk ◽  
Injury Severity ◽  
Rugby Union ◽  
Injury Surveillance ◽  
Injury Incidence ◽  
Match Play ◽  
Common Activity ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Mean

ObjectivesThe Professional Rugby Injury Surveillance Project is the largest and longest running rugby union injury surveillance project globally and focuses on the highest level of rugby in England.MethodsWe examined match injuries in professional men’s rugby over the period 2002/2003 to 2018/2019 and described trends in injuries over this time.ResultsOver the period 2002/2003–2018/2019, 10 851 injuries occurred in 1 24 952 hours of match play, equating to a mean of 57 injuries per club per season and one injury per team per match. The mean incidence, severity (days absence) and burden (days absence/1000 hours) of injury were 87/1000 hours (95% CI 82 to 92), 25 days (95% CI 22 to 28) and 2178 days/1000 hours (95% CI 1872 to 2484), respectively. The tackle accounted for 43% injuries with running the second most common activity during injury (12%). The most common injury location was the head/face with an incidence of 11.3/1000 hours, while the location with the highest overall burden was the knee (11.1 days/1000 hours). Long-term trends demonstrated stable injury incidence and proportion of injured players, but an increase in the mean and median severity of injuries. Concussion incidence, severity and burden increased from the 2009/2010 season onwards and from 2011 to 2019 concussion was the most common injury.ConclusionThe rise in overall injury severity and concussion incidence are the most significant findings from this work and demonstrate the need for continued efforts to reduce concussion risk as well as a greater understanding of changes in injury severity over time.

scholarly journals Changes in the reproductive parameters of female harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) in the Northwest Atlantic

2009 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 304-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Becky Sjare ◽  
Garry B. Stenson
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Sexual Maturity ◽  
Reproductive Parameters ◽  
Northwest Atlantic ◽  
Pagophilus Groenlandicus ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The 1950S

Abstract Sjare, B., and Stenson, G. B. 2010. Changes in the reproductive parameters of female harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) in the Northwest Atlantic. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 304–315. Changes in female harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus) reproductive parameters from 1980 to 2004, and long-term trends since the early 1950s, are evaluated. Estimates of the total number of seals in the Northwest Atlantic declined from ∼3.0 million in the 1950s to 1.8 million in the early 1970s, then increased steadily to 5.5 million in 1996, at which relatively stable level it has remained since. Pregnancy rates increased from ∼86% in the 1950s to a high of 98% in the mid-1960s, then declined to ∼65–70% by the early 1990s; the rate then varied between 45 and 70% from 2000 to 2004. Concurrently, the mean age at sexual maturity decreased from 5.8 (s.e = 0.02) years in the mid-1950s to 4.1 (s.e. = 0.02) in the late 1970s, increased to 5.5 (s.e. = 0.03) years by the early 1990s, and peaked at 5.7 (s.e. = 0.01) in 1995. From 2000 to 2004, mean age varied from 4.9 (s.e. = 0.01) to 6.0 (s.e. = 0.01) years. Although the direction of change in each of the parameters was consistent with a density-dependent response, changes in population size explained relatively little of the variability observed, suggesting that other ecological or environmental factors were influential.

scholarly journals The Impact of Improved Thermistor Calibration on the Expendable Bathythermograph Profile Data

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (9) ◽  
pp. 1947-1961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marlos Goes ◽  
Elizabeth Babcock ◽  
Francis Bringas ◽  
Peter Ortner ◽  
Gustavo Goni
Keyword(s):  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Profile Data ◽  
Expendable Bathythermograph ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractExpendable bathythermograph (XBT) data provide one of the longest available records of upper-ocean temperature. However, temperature and depth biases in XBT data adversely affect estimates of long-term trends of ocean heat content and, to a lesser extent, estimates of volume and heat transport in the ocean. Several corrections have been proposed to overcome historical biases in XBT data, which rely on constantly monitoring these biases. This paper provides an analysis of data collected during three recent hydrographic cruises that utilized different types of probes, and examines methods to reduce temperature and depth biases by improving the thermistor calibration and reducing the mass variability of the XBT probes.The results obtained show that the use of individual thermistor calibration in XBT probes is the most effective calibration to decrease the thermal bias, improving the mean thermal bias to less than 0.02°C and its tolerance from 0.1° to 0.03°C. The temperature variance of probes with screened thermistors is significantly reduced by approximately 60% in comparison to standard probes. On the other hand, probes with a tighter weight tolerance did not show statistically significant reductions in the spread of depth biases, possibly because of the small sample size or the sensitivity of the depth accuracy to other causes affecting the analysis.

Long-term trend analysis of deep-ocean acoustic noise data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sei-Him Cheong ◽  
Stephen P Robinson ◽  
Peter M Harris ◽  
Lian S Wang ◽  
Valerie Livina
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Sound Pressure ◽  
Functional Model ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Ocean Noise ◽  
Noise Data ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Monitoring Stations

&lt;p&gt;Underwater noise is recognised as a form of marine pollutant and there is evidence that over exposure to excessive levels of noise can have effects on the wellbeing of the marine ecosystem. Consequently, the variation in the ambient sound levels in the deep ocean has been the subject of a number of recent studies, with particular interest in the identification of long-term trends. We describe a statistical method for performing long-term trend analysis and uncertainty evaluation of the estimated trends from deep-ocean noise data. This study has been extended to include &amp;#160;measured data&amp;#160; from four monitoring stations located in the Indian (Cape Leeuwin &amp; Diego Garcia), Pacific (Wake Island) and Southern Atlantic (Ascension Islands) Oceans over periods spanning between 8 to 15 years. The data were obtained from the hydro-acoustic monitoring stations of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). The monitoring stations provide information at a sampling frequency of 250 Hz, leading to very large datasets, and at acoustic frequencies up to 105 Hz.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The analysis method uses a flexible discrete model that incorporates terms that capture seasonal variations in the data together with a moving-average statistical model to describe the serial correlation of residual deviations. The trend analysis is applied to time series representing daily aggregated statistical levels for four frequency bands to obtain estimates for the change in sound pressure level (SPL) over the examined period with associated coverage intervals. The analysis demonstrates that there are statistically significant changes in the levels of deep-ocean noise over periods exceeding a decade. The main features of the approach include (a) using a functional model&amp;#160; with terms&amp;#160; that represent both long-term and seasonal behaviour of deep-ocean noise, (b) using a statistical model to capture the serial correlation of the residual deviations that are not explained by the functional model, (c) using daily aggregation intervals derived from 1-minute &amp;#160;sound pressure level averages, and (d) applying a non-parametric approach to validate the uncertainties of the trend estimates that avoids the need to make an assumption about the distribution of the residual deviations.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The obtained results show the long term trends vary differently at the four stations. It was observed that low frequency noise generally dominated the significant trends in these oceans. The relative differences between the various statistical levels are remarkably similar for all the frequency bands. Given the complexity of the acoustic environment, it is difficult to identify the main causes of these trends. Some possible explanations for the observed trends are discussed. It was however observed some stations are subjected to strong seasonal variation with a high degree of correlation with climatic factors such as sea surface temperature, Antarctic ice coverage and wind speed. The same seasonal effects is less pronounced in station located closer to the equator.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Long-Term Trend of Climate Change and Drought Assessment in the Horn of Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mihretab G. Ghebrezgabher ◽  
Taibao Yang ◽  
Xuemei Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
Moderate Drought ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Climate change due to global warming is a world concern, particularly in Africa. In this study, precipitation and temperature variables are taken as a proxy to assess and quantify the long-term climate change and drought in the Horn of Africa (HOA) (1930–2014). We adapted a simple linear regression and interpolation to analyze, respectively, the trend and spatial distribution of the mean annual precipitation and temperature. In addition, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was applied to evaluate the drought condition of the HOA. The results revealed that statistically the trend of precipitation decreased insignificantly; the trend of temperature was observed to drop very significantly between 1930 and 1969, but it was dramatically elevated very significantly from 1970 to 2014. The SPEI showed that the HOA experienced from mild to moderate drought throughout the study period with severe to extreme drought in some regions, particularly in 1943, 1984, 1991, and 2009. The drought was a very serious environmental problem in the HOA in the last 85 years. Thus, an immediate action is required to tackle drought and hence poverty and famine in the HOA.

scholarly journals Shift of subtropical transport barriers explains observed hemispheric asymmetry of decadal trends of age of air

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele P. Stiller ◽  
Federico Fierli ◽  
Felix Ploeger ◽  
Chiara Cagnazzo ◽  
Bernd Funke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Circulation Pattern ◽  
Transport Time ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Southward Shift ◽  
Transport Barriers ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Middle Stratosphere

Abstract. In response to global warming the Brewer–Dobson circulation in the stratosphere is expected to accelerate and the mean transport time of air along this circulation to decrease. This would imply a negative stratospheric age of air trend, i.e. an air parcel would need less time to travel from the tropopause to any point in the stratosphere. Age of air as inferred from tracer observations, however, shows zero to positive trends in the Northern midlatitude stratosphere and zonally asymmetric patterns. Using satellite 5 observations and model calculations we show that the observed latitudinal and vertical patterns of the decadal changes of age of air in the lower to middle stratosphere during 2002–2012 are predominantly caused by a southward shift of the circulation pattern of about 5 degrees. After correction for this shift, the observations reveal a hemispherically almost symmetric decrease of age of air in the lower to middle stratosphere up to 800 K of up to −0.25 years over the 2002–2012 period with strongest decrease in the Northern tropics. This net change is consistent with long-term trends from model predictions.

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