Estimating future air-quality due to climate change: the Athens case study

Abstract. The aim of this study is to investigate the development of an empirical-statistical model in order to examine the potential impact of increasing future temperatures on ozone exceedance days in the Greater Athens Area. It is based on the concept that temperature is a capable predictor for the ozone concentrations and that in a future climate change world, the likelihood of ozone pollution episodes may increase.

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Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change Scenarios on Ground Subsidence

Water ◽

10.3390/w12010219 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 219 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara ◽

David Pulido-Velazquez ◽

Rosa María Mateos ◽

Pablo Ezquerro

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Subsidence ◽

Ground Subsidence ◽

Lower Percentage ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Fine Grained ◽

Fine Grained Material ◽

The Impact

In this work, we developed a new method to assess the impact of climate change (CC) scenarios on land subsidence related to groundwater level depletion in detrital aquifers. The main goal of this work was to propose a parsimonious approach that could be applied for any case study. We also evaluated the methodology in a case study, the Vega de Granada aquifer (southern Spain). Historical subsidence rates were estimated using remote sensing techniques (differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar, DInSAR). Local CC scenarios were generated by applying a bias correction approach. An equifeasible ensemble of the generated projections from different climatic models was also proposed. A simple water balance approach was applied to assess CC impacts on lumped global drawdowns due to future potential rainfall recharge and pumping. CC impacts were propagated to drawdowns within piezometers by applying the global delta change observed with the lumped assessment. Regression models were employed to estimate the impacts of these drawdowns in terms of land subsidence, as well as to analyze the influence of the fine-grained material in the aquifer. The results showed that a more linear behavior was observed for the cases with lower percentage of fine-grained material. The mean increase of the maximum subsidence rates in the considered wells for the future horizon (2016–2045) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5 was 54%. The main advantage of the proposed method is its applicability in cases with limited information. It is also appropriate for the study of wide areas to identify potential hot spots where more exhaustive analyses should be performed. The method will allow sustainable adaptation strategies in vulnerable areas during drought-critical periods to be assessed.

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Current and future occurrences of health-relevant, compound heat and ozone pollution events in six European ozone-temperature regions

10.5194/ems2021-61 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sally Jahn ◽

Elke Hertig

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Large Scale ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Ground Level ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Ozone Pollution ◽

Ground Level Ozone ◽

Ozone Concentrations ◽

Elevated Ozone

Air pollution and heat events present two major health risks, both already independently posing a significant threat to human health and life. High levels of ground-level ozone (O3) and air temperature often coincide due to the underlying physical relationships between both variables. The most severe health outcome is in general associated with the co-occurrence of both hazards (e.g. Hertig et al. 2020), since concurrent elevated levels of temperature and ozone concentrations represent a twofold exposure and can lead to a risk beyond the sum of the individual effects. Consequently, in the current contribution, a compound approach considering both hazards simultaneously as so-called ozone-temperature (o-t-)events is chosen by jointly analyzing elevated ground-level ozone concentrations and air temperature levels in Europe.Previous studies already point to the fact that the relationship of underlying synoptic and meteorological drivers with one or both of these health stressors as well as the correlation between both variables vary with the location of sites and seasons (e.g. Otero et al. 2016; Jahn, Hertig 2020). Therefore, a hierarchical clustering analysis is applied to objectively divide the study domain in regions of homogeneous, similar ground-level ozone and temperature characteristics (o-t-regions). Statistical models to assess the synoptic and large-scale meteorological mechanisms which represent main drivers of concurrent o-t-events are developed for each identified o-t-region.Compound elevated ozone concentration and air temperature events are expected to become more frequent due to climate change in many parts of Europe (e.g. Jahn, Hertig 2020; Hertig 2020). Statistical projections of potential frequency shifts of compound o-t-events until the end of the twenty-first century are assessed using the output of Earth System Models (ESMs) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).Hertig, E. (2020) Health-relevant ground-level ozone and temperature events under future climate change using the example of Bavaria, Southern Germany. Air Qual. Atmos. Health. doi: 10.1007/s11869-020-00811-zHertig, E., Russo, A., Trigo, R. (2020) Heat and ozone pollution waves in Central and South Europe- characteristics, weather types, and association with mortality. Atmosphere. doi: 10.3390/atmos11121271Jahn, S., Hertig, E. (2020) Modeling and projecting health&#8208;relevant combined ozone and temperature events in present and future Central European climate. Air Qual. Atmos. Health. doi: 10.1007/s11869&#8208;020&#8208;009610Otero N., Sillmann J., Schnell J.L., Rust H.W., Butler T. (2016) Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe. Environ Res Lett. doi: 10.1088/ 1748-9326/11/2/024005

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Impacts of future climate change and effects of biogenic emissions on surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations in US

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-11-2183-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 2183-2231 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Y. F. Lam ◽

J. S. Fu ◽

S. Wu ◽

L. J. Mickley

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Air Quality ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Biogenic Emissions ◽

Emissions Reduction ◽

Annual Average ◽

Future Emissions

Abstract. Simulations of present and future average regional ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the United States were performed to investigate the potential impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional air quality using CMAQ. Various emissions and climate conditions with different biogenic emissions and domain resolutions were implemented to study the sensitivity of future air quality trends from the impacts of changing biogenic emissions. A comparison of GEOS-Chem and CMAQ was performed to investigate the effect of downscaling on the prediction of future air quality trends. For ozone, the impacts of global climate change are relatively smaller when compared to the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction, except for the Northeast area, where increasing biogenic emissions due to climate change have stronger positive effects (increases) to the regional ozone air quality. The combination effect from both climate change and emission reductions leads to approximately a 10% or 5 ppbv decrease of the maximum daily average eight-hour ozone (MDA8) over the Eastern United States. For PM2.5, the impacts of global climate change have shown insignificant effect, where as the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction account for the majority of overall PM2.5 reductions. The annual average 24-h PM2.5 of the future-year condition was found to be about 40% lower than the one from the present-year condition, of which 60% of its overall reductions are contributed to by the decrease of SO4 and NO3 particulate matters. Changing the biogenic emissions model increases the MDA8 ozone by about 5–10% or 3–5 ppbv in the Northeast area. Conversely, it reduces the annual average PM2.5 by 5% or 1.0 μg/m3 in the Southeast region.

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Compound heat and ozone pollution events relevant for human health

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-119 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Elke Hertig ◽

Ana Russo ◽

Ricardo Trigo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Myocardial Infarction ◽

Human Health ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Ground Level ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Ozone Pollution ◽

Ground Level Ozone ◽

Ozone Concentrations ◽

South Europe

Temperature extremes and air pollution pose a significant threat to human health. A specific concern applies to heat events and elevated ground-level ozone concentrations, due to the physical relationships between these variables, the single and combined effects of both variables on human health and the anticipated substantial changes in the scope of climate change.The present contribution addresses relationships between air temperature and ground-level ozone, the association of these variables with atmospheric circulation patterns, the anticipated changes under future climate change as well as their association with human morbidity (i.e. myocardial infarction frequencies, Hertig et al. 2019) and mortality. The focus is on two climatically different regions in Europe, i.e., Bavaria (Central Europe) and Portugal (South Europe).In general, a strong relationship between air temperature and ozone formation became evident. Due to the non-linear nature of the relationship, higher temperatures usually led to substantially enhanced ozone concentrations. In the scope of climate change, considerable increases of maximum temperatures were assessed for Bavaria until the end of the century. Also, future ozone concentrations were projected to rise (Hertig 2020). With respect to spell-length related extremes (heat waves and/ or ozone pollution waves), heat waves were identified as the most frequent wave type for the two European regions under investigation. Waves were associated with in-situ built-up as well as with advection of air masses. Despite different climate settings, a comparable exposure to heat and ozone waves was found in Central and South Europe. In view of excess mortality, the most severe impacts were always associated with compound heat-ozone waves (Hertig et al. 2020).Research was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under project number 408057478.Hertig, E., Russo, A., Trigo, R. (2020): Heat and ozone pollution waves in Central and South Europe- characteristics, weather types, and association with mortality. Atmosphere. doi: 10.3390/atmos11121271Hertig, E. (2020): Health-relevant ground-level ozone and temperature events under future climate change using the example of Bavaria, Southern Germany. Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-020-00811-zHertig, E., Schneider, A., Peters, A., von Scheidt, W., Kuch, B., Meisinger, Ch. (2019): Association of ground-level ozone, meteorological factors and weather types with daily myocardial infarction frequencies in Augsburg, Southern Germany. Atmos. Environment. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.116975

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Effects of ozone and climate on historical (1980-2015) crop yields in the United States: Implication for mid-21st century projection

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-399 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yabin Da ◽

Yangyang Xu ◽

Bruce McCarl

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Winter Wheat ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Time Window ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

The United States ◽

Ozone Exposure ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Ozone Pollution

Surface ozone pollution has been proven to impose significant damages on crops. However, the quantification of the damages was extensively derived from chamber experiments, which is not representative of actual results in farm fields due to the limitations of spatial scale, time window, etc. In this work, we attempt to empirically fill this gap using county-level data in the United States from 1980 to 2015. We explore ozone impacts on corn, soybeans, spring wheat, winter wheat, barley, cotton, peanuts, rice, sorghum, and sunflower. We also incorporate a variety of climate variables to investigate potential ozone-climate interactions. More importantly, we shed light on future yield consequences of ozone and climate change individually and jointly under a moderate warming scenario. Our findings suggest significant negative impacts of ozone exposure for eight of the ten crops we examined, excepting barley and winter wheat, which contradicts experimental results. The average annual damages were estimated at $6.03 billion (in 2015 U.S. dollar) from 1980 to 2015. We also find rising temperatures tend to worsen ozone damages while water supply would mitigate that. Finally, elevated ozone driven by future climate change would cause much smaller damages than the direct effects of climate change itself.

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Potential Impacts of and Adaptation to Future Climate Change for Crop Farms: A Case Study of Flathead Valley, Montana

Climate Change - Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks ◽

10.5772/39265 ◽

2013 ◽

Author(s):

Tony Prato ◽

Zeyuan Qiu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change

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Modelling biophysical vulnerability of wheat to future climate change: A case study in the eastern Australian wheat belt

Ecological Indicators ◽

10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106290 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 114 ◽

pp. 106290 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Bin Wang ◽

Puyu Feng ◽

De Li Liu ◽

Cathy Waters

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Australian Wheat ◽

Biophysical Vulnerability

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Strong influence of 2000–2050 climate change on particulate matter in the United States: Results from a new statistical model

10.5194/acp-2016-954 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Lu Shen ◽

Loretta J. Mickley ◽

Lee T. Murray

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Particulate Matter ◽

Air Quality ◽

Statistical Model ◽

The United States ◽

Anthropogenic Sources ◽

Meteorological Variables ◽

Eastern United States ◽

Low Cloud

Abstract. We use a statistical model to investigate the effect of 2000–2050 climate change on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality across the contiguous United States. By applying observed relationships of PM2.5 and meteorology to the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparision Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives, we bypass many of the uncertainties inherent in chemistry-climate models. Our approach uses both the relationships between PM2.5 and local meteorology as well as the synoptic circulation patterns, defined as the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) pattern of the spatial correlations between PM2.5 and meteorological variables in the surrounding region. Using an ensemble of 17 GCMs under the RCP4.5 scenario, we project an increase of ~ 1 μg m−3 in annual mean PM2.5 in the eastern US and a decrease of 0.3–1.2 μg m−3 in the Intermountain West by the 2050s, assuming present-day anthropogenic sources of PM2.5. Mean summertime PM2.5 increases as much as 2–3 μg m−3 in the eastern United States due to faster oxidation rates and greater mass of organic carbon from biogenic emissions. Mean wintertime PM2.5 decreases by 0.3–3 μg m−3 over most regions in United States, likely due to the volatilization of ammonium nitrate. Our approach provides an efficient method to calculate the climate penalty or benefit on air quality across a range of models and scenarios. We find that current atmospheric chemistry models may underestimate or even fail to capture the strongly positive sensitivity of monthly mean PM2.5 to temperature in the eastern United States in summer, and may underestimate future changes in PM2.5 in a warmer climate. In GEOS-Chem, the underestimate in monthly mean PM2.5-temperature relationship in the East in summer is likely caused by overly strong negative sensitivity of monthly mean low cloud fraction to temperature in the assimilated meteorology (~ −0.04 K−1), compared to the weak sensitivity implied by satellite observations (±0.01 K−1). The strong negative dependence of low cloud cover on temperature, in turn, causes the modeled rates of sulfate aqueous oxidation to diminish too rapidly as temperatures rise, leading to the underestimate of sulfate-temperature slopes, especially in the South. Our work underscores the importance of evaluating the sensitivity of PM2.5 to its key controlling meteorological variables in climate-chemistry models on multiple timescales before they are applied to project future air quality.

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Global contribution of climate variability and trends to maize yield change in observations and crop models during 1980-2010

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21042 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Xiaomeng Yin ◽

Guoyong Leng

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Statistical Model ◽

Yield Loss ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Maize Yield ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Crop Models ◽

Process Based Models

Understanding historical crop yield response to climate change is critical for projecting future climate change impacts on yields. Previous assessments rely on statistical or process-based crop models, but each has its own strength and weakness. A comprehensive comparison of climate impacts on yield between the two approaches allows for evaluation of the uncertainties in future yield projections. Here we assess the impacts of historical climate change on global maize yield for the period 1980-2010 using both statistical and process-based models, with a focus on comparing the performances between the two approaches. To allow for reasonable comparability, we develop an emulator which shares the same structure with the statistical model to mimic the behaviors of process-based models. Results show that the simulated maize yields in most of the top 10 producing countries are overestimated, when compared against FAO observations. Overall, GEPIC, EPIC-IIASA and EPIC-Boku show better performance than other models in reproducing the observed yield variations at the global scale. Climate variability explains 42.00% of yield variations in observation-based statistical model, while large discrepancy is found in crop models. Regionally, climate variability is associated with 55.0% and 52.20% of yield variations in Argentina and USA, respectively. Further analysis based on process-based model emulator shows that climate change has led to a yield loss by 1.51%-3.80% during the period 1980-1990, consistent with the estimations using the observation-based statistical model. As for the period 1991-2000, however, the observed yield loss induced by climate change is only captured by GEPIC and pDSSAT. In contrast to the observed positive climate impact for the period 2001-2010, CLM-Crop, EPIC-IIASA, GEPIC, pAPSIM, pDSSAT and PEGASUS simulated negative climate effects. The results point to the discrepancy between process-based and statistical crop models in simulating climate change impacts on maize yield, which depends on not only the regions, but also the specific time period. We suggest that more targeted efforts are required for constraining the uncertainties of both statistical and process-based crop models for future yield predictions.&#160;

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