Changes in dissolved iron deposition to the oceans driven by human activity: a 3-D global modelling study

Abstract. The global atmospheric iron (Fe) cycle is parameterized in the global 3-D chemical transport model TM4-ECPL to simulate the proton- and the organic ligand-promoted mineral-Fe dissolution as well as the aqueous-phase photochemical reactions between the oxidative states of Fe (III/II). Primary emissions of total (TFe) and dissolved (DFe) Fe associated with dust and combustion processes are also taken into account, with TFe mineral emissions calculated to amount to ~ 35 Tg-Fe yr−1 and TFe emissions from combustion sources of ~ 2 Tg-Fe yr−1. The model reasonably simulates the available Fe observations, supporting the reliability of the results of this study. Proton- and organic ligand-promoted Fe dissolution in present-day TM4-ECPL simulations is calculated to be ~ 0.175 Tg-Fe yr−1, approximately half of the calculated total primary DFe emissions from mineral and combustion sources in the model (~ 0.322 Tg-Fe yr−1). The atmospheric burden of DFe is calculated to be ~ 0.024 Tg-Fe. DFe deposition presents strong spatial and temporal variability with an annual flux of ~ 0.496 Tg-Fe yr−1, from which about 40 % (~ 0.191 Tg-Fe yr−1) is deposited over the ocean. The impact of air quality on Fe deposition is studied by performing sensitivity simulations using preindustrial (year 1850), present (year 2008) and future (year 2100) emission scenarios. These simulations indicate that about a 3 times increase in Fe dissolution may have occurred in the past 150 years due to increasing anthropogenic emissions and thus atmospheric acidity. Air-quality regulations of anthropogenic emissions are projected to decrease atmospheric acidity in the near future, reducing to about half the dust-Fe dissolution relative to the present day. The organic ligand contribution to Fe dissolution shows an inverse relationship to the atmospheric acidity, thus its importance has decreased since the preindustrial period but is projected to increase in the future. The calculated changes also show that the atmospheric DFe supply to the globe has more than doubled since the preindustrial period due to 8-fold increases in the primary non-dust emissions and about a 3-fold increase in the dust-Fe dissolution flux. However, in the future the DFe deposition flux is expected to decrease (by about 25 %) due to reductions in the primary non-dust emissions (about 15 %) and in the dust-Fe dissolution flux (about 55 %). The present level of atmospheric deposition of DFe over the global ocean is calculated to be about 3 times higher than for 1850 emissions, and about a 30 % decrease is projected for 2100 emissions. These changes are expected to impact most on the high-nutrient–low-chlorophyll oceanic regions.

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Changes in dissolved iron deposition to the oceans driven by human activity: a 3-D global modelling study

Biogeosciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/bgd-12-3943-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 3943-3990

Author(s):

S. Myriokefalitakis ◽

N. Daskalakis ◽

N. Mihalopoulos ◽

A. R. Baker ◽

A. Nenes ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Transport Model ◽

Organic Ligand ◽

Photochemical Reactions ◽

Anthropogenic Emissions ◽

Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽

Deposition Flux ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The global atmospheric iron (Fe) cycle is parameterized in the global 3-D chemical transport model TM4-ECPL to simulate the proton- and the organic ligand-promoted mineral Fe dissolution as well as the aqueous-phase photochemical reactions between the oxidative states of Fe(III/II). Primary emissions of total (TFe) and dissolved (DFe) Fe associated with dust and combustion processes are also taken into account. TFe emissions are calculated to amount to ~35 Tg Fe yr−1. The model reasonably simulates the available Fe observations, supporting the reliability of the results of this study. Accounting for proton- and organic ligand-promoted Fe-dissolution in present-day TM4-ECPL simulations, the total Fe-dissolution is calculated to be ~0.163 Tg Fe yr−1 that accounts for up to ~50% of the calculated total DFe emissions. The atmospheric burden of DFe is calculated to be ~0.012 Tg Fe. DFe deposition presents strong spatial and temporal variability with an annual deposition flux ~0.489 Tg Fe yr−1 from which about 25% (~0.124 Tg Fe yr−1) are deposited over the ocean. The impact of air-quality on Fe deposition is studied by performing sensitivity simulations using preindustrial (year 1850), present (year 2008) and future (year 2100) emission scenarios. These simulations indicate that an increase (~2 times) in Fe-dissolution may have occurred in the past 150 years due to increasing anthropogenic emissions and thus atmospheric acidity. On the opposite, a decrease (~2 times) of Fe-dissolution is projected for near future, since atmospheric acidity is expected to be lower than present-day due to air-quality regulations of anthropogenic emissions. The organic ligand contribution to Fe dissolution shows inverse relationship to the atmospheric acidity thus its importance has decreased since the preindustrial period but is projected to increase in the future. The calculated changes also show that the atmospheric DFe supply to High-Nutrient-Low-Chlorophyll oceanic areas (HNLC) characterized by Fe scarcity, has increased (~50%) since the preindustrial period. However, the DFe deposition flux is expected to decrease (~30%) to almost preindustrial levels over the Northern Hemisphere HNLC oceanic regions in the future. Significant reductions of ~20% over the Southern Ocean and the remote tropical Pacific Ocean are also projected which can further limit the primary productivity over HNLC waters.

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The Impact of Future Emission Policies on Tropospheric Ozone using a Parameterised Approach

10.5194/acp-2017-1220 ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Steven Turnock ◽

Oliver Wild ◽

Frank Dentener ◽

Yanko Davila ◽

Louisa Emmons ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Source Attribution ◽

The Future ◽

Future Emission ◽

Tropospheric O3 ◽

Near Term ◽

The Impact ◽

Surface O3

Abstract. This study quantifies future changes in tropospheric ozone (O3) using a simple parameterisation of source-receptor relationships based on simulations from a range of models participating in the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants (TF-HTAP) experiments. Surface and tropospheric O3 changes are calculated globally and across 16 regions from perturbations in precursor emissions (NOx, CO, VOCs) and methane (CH4) abundance. A source attribution is provided for each source region along with an estimate of uncertainty based on the spread of the results from the models. Tests against model simulations using HadGEM2-ES confirm that the approaches used within the parameterisation are valid. The O3 response to changes in CH4 abundance is slightly larger in TF-HTAP Phase 2 than in the TF-HTAP Phase 1 assessment (2010) and provides further evidence that controlling CH4 is important for limiting future O3 concentrations. Different treatments of chemistry and meteorology in models remains one of the largest uncertainties in calculating the O3 response to perturbations in CH4 abundance and precursor emissions, particularly over the Middle East and South Asian regions. Emission changes for the future ECLIPSE scenarios and a subset of preliminary Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) indicate that surface O3 concentrations will increase by 1 to 8 ppbv in 2050 across different regions. Source attribution analysis highlights the growing importance of CH4 in the future under current legislation. A global tropospheric O3 radiative forcing of +0.07 W m−2 from 2010 to 2050 is predicted using the ECLIPSE scenarios and SSPs, based solely on changes in CH4 abundance and tropospheric O3 precursor emissions and neglecting any influence of climate change. Current legislation is shown to be inadequate in limiting the future degradation of surface ozone air quality and enhancement of near-term climate warming. More stringent future emission controls provide a large reduction in both surface O3 concentrations and O3 radiative forcing. The parameterisation provides a simple tool to highlight the different impacts and associated uncertainties of local and hemispheric emission control strategies on both surface air quality and the near-term climate forcing by tropospheric O3.

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Air quality impacts of COVID-19 lockdown measures detected from space using high spatial resolution observations of multiple trace gases from Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI

10.5194/acp-2021-534 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Pieternel F. Levelt ◽

Deborah C. Stein Zweers ◽

Ilse Aben ◽

Maite Bauwens ◽

Tobias Borsdorff ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Spatial Resolution ◽

High Spatial Resolution ◽

Trace Gases ◽

Trace Gas ◽

Joint Analysis ◽

Anthropogenic Emissions ◽

China And India ◽

Societal Relevance ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The aim of this paper is two-fold: to provide guidance on how to best interpret TROPOMI trace gas retrievals and to highlight how TROPOMI trace gas data can be used to understand event-based impacts on air quality from regional to city-scales around the globe. For this study, we present the observed changes in the atmospheric column amounts of five trace gases (NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO and CHOCHO) detected by the Sentinel-5P TROPOMI instrument, driven by reductions of anthropogenic emissions due to COVID-19 lockdown measures in 2020. We report clear COVID-19-related decreases in NO2 concentrations on all continents. For megacities, reductions in column amounts of tropospheric NO2 range between 14 % and 63 %. For China and India supported by NO2 observations, where the primary source of anthropogenic SO2 is coal-fired power generation, we were able to detect sector-specific emission changes using the SO2 data. For HCHO and CHOCHO, we consistently observe anthropogenic changes in two-week averaged column amounts over China and India during the early phases of the lockdown periods. That these variations over such a short time scale are detectable from space, is due to the high resolution and improved sensitivity of the TROPOMI instrument. For CO, we observe a small reduction over China which is in concert with the other trace gas reductions observed during lockdown, however large, interannual differences prevent firm conclusions from being drawn. The joint analysis of COVID-19 lockdown-driven reductions in satellite observed trace gas column amounts, using the latest operational and scientific retrieval techniques for five species concomitantly is unprecedented. However, the meteorologically and seasonally driven variability of the five trace gases does not allow for drawing fully quantitative conclusions on the reduction of anthropogenic emissions based on TROPOMI observations alone. We anticipate that in future, the combined use of inverse modelling techniques with the high spatial resolution data from S5P/TROPOMI for all observed trace gases presented here, will yield a significantly improved sector-specific, space-based analysis of the impact of COVID-19 lockdown measures as compared to other existing satellite observations. Such analyses will further enhance the scientific impact and societal relevance of the TROPOMI mission.

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Implementation of dust emission and chemistry into the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system and initial application to an Asian dust storm episode

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-12-10209-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (21) ◽

pp. 10209-10237 ◽

Cited By ~ 78

Author(s):

K. Wang ◽

Y. Zhang ◽

A. Nenes ◽

C. Fountoukis

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Dust Storm ◽

Dust Emission ◽

Forecast Model ◽

Heterogeneous Reactions ◽

Dust Particles ◽

Aerodynamic Diameter ◽

Dust Emissions ◽

New Model ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 4.7 is further developed to enhance its capability in simulating the photochemical cycles in the presence of dust particles. The new model treatments implemented in CMAQ v4.7 in this work include two online dust emission schemes (i.e., the Zender and Westphal schemes), nine dust-related heterogeneous reactions, an updated aerosol inorganic thermodynamic module ISORROPIA II with an explicit treatment of crustal species, and the interface between ISORROPIA II and the new dust treatments. The resulting improved CMAQ (referred to as CMAQ-Dust), offline-coupled with the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF), is applied to the April 2001 dust storm episode over the trans-Pacific domain to examine the impact of new model treatments and understand associated uncertainties. WRF/CMAQ-Dust produces reasonable spatial distribution of dust emissions and captures the dust outbreak events, with the total dust emissions of ~111 and 223 Tg when using the Zender scheme with an erodible fraction of 0.5 and 1.0, respectively. The model system can reproduce well observed meteorological and chemical concentrations, with significant improvements for suspended particulate matter (PM), PM with aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm, and aerosol optical depth than the default CMAQ v4.7. The sensitivity studies show that the inclusion of crustal species reduces the concentration of PM with aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm (PM2.5) over polluted areas. The heterogeneous chemistry occurring on dust particles acts as a sink for some species (e.g., as a lower limit estimate, reducing O3 by up to 3.8 ppb (~9%) and SO2 by up to 0.3 ppb (~27%)) and as a source for some others (e.g., increasing fine-mode SO42− by up to 1.1 μg m−3 (~12%) and PM2.5 by up to 1.4 μg m−3 (~3%)) over the domain. The long-range transport of Asian pollutants can enhance the surface concentrations of gases by up to 3% and aerosol species by up to 20% in the Western US.

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The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part II: Scenarios for 2040

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-20-10667-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (17) ◽

pp. 10667-10686

Author(s):

Martin O. P. Ramacher ◽

Lin Tang ◽

Jana Moldanová ◽

Volker Matthias ◽

Matthias Karl ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Health Effects ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Large Scale ◽

Health Effect ◽

Population Exposure ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Port Area ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Shipping is an important source of air pollutants, from the global to the local scale. Ships emit substantial amounts of sulfur dioxides, nitrogen dioxides, and particulate matter in the vicinity of coasts, threatening the health of the coastal population, especially in harbour cities. Reductions in emissions due to shipping have been targeted by several regulations. Nevertheless, effects of these regulations come into force with temporal delays, global ship traffic is expected to grow in the future, and other land-based anthropogenic emissions might decrease. Thus, it is necessary to investigate combined impacts to identify the impact of shipping activities on air quality, population exposure, and health effects in the future. We investigated the future effect of shipping emissions on air quality and related health effects considering different scenarios of the development of shipping under current regional trends of economic growth and already decided regulations in the Gothenburg urban area in 2040. Additionally, we investigated the impact of a large-scale implementation of shore electricity in the Port of Gothenburg. For this purpose, we established a one-way nested chemistry transport modelling (CTM) system from the global to the urban scale, to calculate pollutant concentrations, population-weighted concentrations, and health effects related to NO2, PM2.5, and O3. The simulated concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 in future scenarios for the year 2040 are in general very low with up to 4 ppb for NO2 and up to 3.5 µg m−3 PM2.5 in the urban areas which are not close to the port area. From 2012 the simulated overall exposure to PM2.5 decreased by approximately 30 % in simulated future scenarios; for NO2 the decrease was over 60 %. The simulated concentrations of O3 increased from the year 2012 to 2040 by about 20 %. In general, the contributions of local shipping emissions in 2040 focus on the harbour area but to some extent also influence the rest of the city domain. The simulated impact of onshore electricity implementation for shipping in 2040 shows reductions for NO2 in the port of up to 30 %, while increasing O3 of up to 3 %. Implementation of onshore electricity for ships at berth leads to additional local reduction potentials of up to 3 % for PM2.5 and 12 % for SO2 in the port area. All future scenarios show substantial decreases in population-weighted exposure and health-effect impacts.

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Attribution of projected changes in US ozone and PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations to global changes

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-8-15131-2008 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 15131-15163 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

J. Avise ◽

J. Chen ◽

B. Lamb ◽

C. Wiedinmyer ◽

A. Guenther ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Air Quality ◽

Boundary Conditions ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Anthropogenic Emissions ◽

Southeastern Us ◽

Regional Air Quality ◽

Projected Changes ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The impact that changes in future climate, anthropogenic US emissions, background tropospheric composition, and land-use have on regional US ozone and PM2.5 concentrations is examined through a matrix of downscaled regional air quality simulations using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Projected regional scale changes in meteorology due to climate change under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario are derived through the downscaling of Parallel Climate Model (PCM) output with the MM5 meteorological model. Future chemical boundary conditions are obtained through downscaling of MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2.4) global chemical model simulations based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario. Projected changes in US anthropogenic emissions are estimated using the EPA Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS), and changes in land-use are projected using data from the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGOM). For July conditions, changes in chemical boundary conditions are found to have the largest impact (+5 ppbv) on average daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) ozone. Changes in US anthropogenic emissions are projected to increase average DM8H ozone by +3 ppbv. Land-use changes are projected to have a significant influence on regional air quality due to the impact these changes have on biogenic hydrocarbon emissions. When climate changes and land-use changes are considered simultaneously, the average DM8H ozone decreases due to a reduction in biogenic VOC emissions (−2.6 ppbv). Changes in average 24-h (A24-h) PM2.5 concentrations are dominated by projected changes in anthropogenic emissions (+3 μg m−3), while changes in chemical boundary conditions have a negligible effect. On average, climate change reduces A24-h PM2.5 concentrations by −0.9 μg m−3, but this reduction is more than tripled in the Southeastern US due to increased precipitation and wet deposition.

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Implementation of dust emission and chemistry into the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system and initial application to an Asian dust storm episode

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-12-13457-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 13457-13514 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

K. Wang ◽

Y. Zhang ◽

A. Nenes ◽

C. Fountoukis

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Dust Storm ◽

Dust Emission ◽

Heterogeneous Reactions ◽

Dust Particles ◽

Aerodynamic Diameter ◽

Dust Emissions ◽

New Model ◽

The Us ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 4.7 is further developed to enhance its capability in simulating the photochemical cycles in the presence of dust particles. The new model treatments implemented in CMAQ v4.7 in this work include two online-dust emission schemes, nine dust-related heterogeneous reactions, an updated aerosol inorganic thermodynamic module ISORROPIA II with an explicit treatment of crustal species, and the interface between ISORROPIA II and the new dust treatments. The resulting improved CMAQ (referred to as CMAQ-Dust), offline-coupled with the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF), are applied to the April 2001 dust storm episode over the trans-Pacific domain to examine the impact of new model treatments and understand associated uncertainties. WRF/CMAQ-Dust produces reasonable spatial distribution of dust emissions and captures the dust outbreak events, with the total dust emissions of ∼111 and 223 Tg when the erodible fraction is assumed to be 0.5 and 1.0, respectively, for the April 2001 episode. The model system can reproduce well observed meteorological and chemical concentrations, with significant improvements for suspended particulate matter (PM), PM with aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm and aerosol optical depth than default CMAQ v4.7. The sensitivity studies show that the inclusion of crustal species reduces the concentration of PM with aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm (PM2.5) over polluted areas. The heterogeneous chemistry occurring on dust particles acts as a sink for some species (e.g., as a lower limit estimate, O3 by up to 3.8 ppb (∼9%) and SO2 by up to 0.3 ppb (∼27%)) and as a source for some others (e.g., fine-mode SO42− by up to 1.1 μg m−3 (∼12%) and PM2.5 by up to 1.4 μg m−3 (∼3%) over the domain. The long-range transport of Asian pollutants can enhance the background concentrations of gases by up to 3% and aerosol species by up to 20% in the US.

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Enhancement of secondary aerosol formation by reduced anthropogenic emissions during Spring Festival 2019 and enlightenment for regional PM<sub>2.5</sub> control in Beijing

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-21-915-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (2) ◽

pp. 915-926

Author(s):

Yuying Wang ◽

Zhanqing Li ◽

Qiuyan Wang ◽

Xiaoai Jin ◽

Peng Yan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Surface Ozone ◽

Regional Analysis ◽

Sulfur Oxidation ◽

Photochemical Reactions ◽

Anthropogenic Emissions ◽

Aerosol Formation ◽

Spring Festival ◽

Oxidation Ratio ◽

The Impact ◽

Mass Concentrations

Abstract. A comprehensive field experiment measuring aerosol chemical and physical properties at a suburban site in Beijing around the 2019 Spring Festival was carried out to investigate the impact of reduced anthropogenic emissions on aerosol formation. Sharply reduced sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations during the festival holiday resulted in an unexpected increase in the surface ozone (O3) concentration caused by the strong O3-titration phenomenon. Simultaneously, the reduced anthropogenic emissions resulted in massive decreases in particle number concentration at all sizes and the mass concentrations of organics and black carbon. However, the mass concentrations of inorganics (especially sulfate) decreased weakly. Detailed analyses of the sulfur oxidation ratio and the nitrogen oxidation ratio suggest that sulfate formation during the holiday could be promoted by enhanced nocturnal aqueous-phase chemical reactions between SO2 and O3 under moderate relative humidity (RH) conditions (40 % < RH < 80 %). Daytime photochemical reactions in winter in Beijing mainly controlled nitrate formation, which was enhanced a little during the holiday. A regional analysis of air pollution patterns shows that the enhanced formation of secondary aerosols occurred throughout the entire Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region during the holiday, partly offsetting the decrease in particle matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm. Our results highlight the necessary control of O3 formation to reduce secondary pollution in winter under current emission conditions.

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Meteorological Normalisation Using Boosted Regression Trees to Estimate the Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions on Air Quality Levels

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph182413347 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (24) ◽

pp. 13347

Author(s):

Sandra Ceballos-Santos ◽

Jaime González-Pardo ◽

David C. Carslaw ◽

Ana Santurtún ◽

Miguel Santibáñez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Regression Tree ◽

Air Pollutant ◽

Boosted Regression Trees ◽

Anthropogenic Emissions ◽

Data Series ◽

Sustainable Mobility ◽

Boosted Regression Tree ◽

Wide Range ◽

The Impact

The global COVID-19 pandemic that began in late December 2019 led to unprecedented lockdowns worldwide, providing a unique opportunity to investigate in detail the impacts of restricted anthropogenic emissions on air quality. A wide range of strategies and approaches exist to achieve this. In this paper, we use the “deweather” R package, based on Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models, first to remove the influences of meteorology and emission trend patterns from NO, NO2, PM10 and O3 data series, and then to calculate the relative changes in air pollutant levels in 2020 with respect to the previous seven years (2013–2019). Data from a northern Spanish region, Cantabria, with all types of monitoring stations (traffic, urban background, industrial and rural) were used, dividing the calendar year into eight periods according to the intensity of government restrictions. The results showed mean reductions in the lockdown period above −50% for NOx, around −10% for PM10 and below −5% for O3. Small differences were found between the relative changes obtained from normalised data with respect to those from observations. These results highlight the importance of developing an integrated policy to reduce anthropogenic emissions and the need to move towards sustainable mobility to ensure safer air quality levels, as pre-existing concentrations in some cases exceed the safe threshold.

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The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part II: Scenarios for 2040

10.5194/acp-2020-319 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Martin O. P. Ramacher ◽

Lin Tang ◽

Jana Moldanová ◽

Volker Matthias ◽

Matthias Karl ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Health Effects ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Large Scale ◽

Health Effect ◽

Population Exposure ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Port Area ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Shipping is an important source of air pollutants, from the global to the local scale. Ships are emitting substantial amounts of sulphur dioxides, nitrogen dioxides and particulate matter in the vicinity of coasts, threatening the health of the coastal population, especially in harbour cities. Reductions of emissions due to shipping have been targeted by several regulations. Nevertheless, effects of these regulations come into force with temporal delays, global ship traffic is expected to grow in the future, and other land-based anthropogenic emissions might decrease. Thus, it is necessary to investigate combined impacts to identify the impact of shipping activities on air quality, population exposure and health-effects in the future. We investigated the future effect of shipping emissions on air quality and related health effects considering different scenarios of the development of shipping under current regional trends of economic growth and already decided regulations in the Gothenburg urban area in 2040. Additionally, we investigated the impact of a large-scale implementation of shore electricity in the port of Gothenburg. For this purpose, we established a one-way nested chemistry transport modelling (CTM) system from the global to the urban scale, to calculate pollutant concentrations, population weighted concentrations and health-effects related to NO2, PM2.5 and O3. The simulated concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 in future scenarios for the year 2040 are in general very low with up to 4 ppb for NO2 and up to 3.5 µg/m3 PM2.5 in the urban areas which are not close to the port area. From 2012 the simulated overall exposure to PM2.5 decreased by approximately 30 % in simulated future scenarios, for NO2 the decrease was over 60 %. The simulated concentrations of O3 increased from year 2012 to 2040 by about 20 %. In general, the contributions of local shipping emissions in 2040 focus on the harbour area but to some extent also influence the rest of the city domain. The simulated impact of wide use of shore-site electricity for shipping in 2040 shows reductions for NO2 in the port with up to 30 %, while increasing O3 of up to 3 %. Implementation of on-shore electricity for ships at berth leads to additional local reduction potentials of up to 3 % for PM2.5 and 12 % for SO2 in the port area. All future scenarios show substantial decreases in population weighted exposure and health-effect impacts.

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