scholarly journals The status and challenge of global fire modelling

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 3359-3375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stijn Hantson ◽  
Almut Arneth ◽  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
Douglas I. Kelley ◽  
I. Colin Prentice ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Fire Modelling ◽  
The Status ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
In Fire

Abstract. Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

scholarly journals The status and challenge of global fire modelling

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Hantson ◽  
A. Arneth ◽  
S. P. Harrison ◽  
D. I. Kelley ◽  
I. C. Prentice ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Current State ◽  
Fire Modelling ◽  
The Status ◽  
In Fire

Abstract. Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, either using well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. A large variety of models exist today and it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP, an international project to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we summarise the current state-of-the-art in fire regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

scholarly journals Amazon fire regimes under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Saravia ◽  
Ben Bond-Lamberty ◽  
Samir Suweis
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Change ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
Critical Transitions ◽  
In Fire

Fire is one of the most important disturbances of the earth-system, shaping the biodiversity of ecosystems and particularly forests. Anthropogenic drivers such as climatic change and other human activities could produce potentially abrupt changes in fire regimes, triggering more profound transformations like the transition from forests to savannah or grasslands ecosystems. Large biodiversity loss could be produced if these transitions occur. Climatic change could cause conditions that enhance fire ignition and spread, which may potentially produce more extensive, intense, and frequent fires. In this work, by considering climate projections for the 21st century, we evaluate the possible changes in the Amazon region's fire regime. We parametrize a fire model using remote sensing data on fire extension and temperature. In the context of our model, there are two possible regime changes: the critical regime that implies high variability in fire extension and mega-fires, and an absorbing phase transition which would produce the extinction of the forest and transition to a different vegetation state. The fitted model and the projections suggest that the Amazon region is not close to any of these regime changes, but other factors not included in the model could result crucial in determining such critical transitions.

Fire regime shift linked to increased forest density in a piñon–juniper savanna landscape

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellis Q. Margolis
Keyword(s):  
Regime Shift ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tree Density ◽  
High Severity ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
In Fire

Piñon–juniper (PJ) fire regimes are generally characterised as infrequent high-severity. However, PJ ecosystems vary across a large geographic and bio-climatic range and little is known about one of the principal PJ functional types, PJ savannas. It is logical that (1) grass in PJ savannas could support frequent, low-severity fire and (2) exclusion of frequent fire could explain increased tree density in PJ savannas. To assess these hypotheses I used dendroecological methods to reconstruct fire history and forest structure in a PJ-dominated savanna. Evidence of high-severity fire was not observed. From 112 fire-scarred trees I reconstructed 87 fire years (1547–1899). Mean fire interval was 7.8 years for fires recorded at ≥2 sites. Tree establishment was negatively correlated with fire frequency (r=–0.74) and peak PJ establishment was synchronous with dry (unfavourable) conditions and a regime shift (decline) in fire frequency in the late 1800s. The collapse of the grass-fuelled, frequent, surface fire regime in this PJ savanna was likely the primary driver of current high tree density (mean=881treesha–1) that is >600% of the historical estimate. Variability in bio-climatic conditions likely drive variability in fire regimes across the wide range of PJ ecosystems.

scholarly journals Historical fire records at the two ends of Iberian Central Mountain System: Estrela massif and Ayllón massif

2019 ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Catarina Romão Sequeira ◽  
Cristina Montiel-Molina ◽  
Francisco Castro Rego
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Multiscale Approach ◽  
Natural Region ◽  
Fire Use ◽  
Prone Area ◽  
Mountain System ◽  
History Of ◽  
In Fire

The Iberian Peninsula has a long history of fire, as the Central Mountain System, from the Estrela massif in Portugal to the Ayllón massif in Spain, is a major fire-prone area. Despite being part of the same natural region, there are different environmental, political and socio-economic contexts at either end, which might have led to distinct human causes of wildfires and associated fire regimes. The hypothesis for this research lies in the historical long-term relationship between wildfire risks and fire use practices within a context of landscape dynamics. In addition to conducting an analysis of the statistical period, a spatial and temporal multiscale approach was taken by reconstructing the historical record of prestatistical fires and land management history at both ends of the Central Mountain System. The main result is the different structural causes of wildland fires at either end of the Central Mountain System, with human factors being more important than environmental factors in determining the fire regimes in both contexts. The study shows that the development of the fire regime was non-linear in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, due to broader local human context factors which led to a shift in fire-use practices.

Mapping fire regime ecoregions in California

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 595 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra D. Syphard ◽  
Jon E. Keeley
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Unsupervised Classification ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
The State ◽  
Reduction Strategies ◽  
Lower Variability ◽  
Fire Characteristics ◽  
In Fire

The fire regime is a central framing concept in wildfire science and ecology and describes how a range of wildfire characteristics vary geographically over time. Understanding and mapping fire regimes is important for guiding appropriate management and risk reduction strategies and for informing research on drivers of global change and altered fire patterns. Most efforts to spatially delineate fire regimes have been conducted by identifying natural groupings of fire parameters based on available historical fire data. This can result in classes with similar fire characteristics but wide differences in ecosystem types. We took a different approach and defined fire regime ecoregions for California to better align with ecosystem types, without using fire as part of the definition. We used an unsupervised classification algorithm to segregate the state into spatial clusters based on distinctive biophysical and anthropogenic attributes that drive fire regimes – and then used historical fire data to evaluate the ecoregions. The fire regime ecoregion map corresponded well with the major land cover types of the state and provided clear separation of historical patterns in fire frequency and size, with lower variability in fire severity. This methodology could be used for mapping fire regimes in other regions with limited historical fire data or forecasting future fire regimes based on expected changes in biophysical characteristics.

Inter- and intra-annual profiles of fire regimes in the managed forests of Canada and implications for resource sharing

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steen Magnussen ◽  
Stephen W. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Resource Sharing ◽  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Regional Synchrony

Year-to-year variation in fire activity in Canada constitutes a key challenge for fire management agencies. Interagency sharing of fire management resources has been ongoing on regional, national and international scales in Canada for several decades to better cope with peaks in resource demand. Inherent stressors on these schemes determined by the fire regimes in constituent jurisdictions are not well known, nor described by averages. We developed a statistical framework to examine the likelihood of regional synchrony of peaks in fire activity at a timescale of 1 week. Year-to-year variations in important fire regime variables and 48 regions in Canada are quantified by a joint distribution and profiled at the Provincial or Territorial level. The fire regime variables capture the timing of the fire season, the average number of fires, area burned, and the timing and extent of annual maxima. The onset of the fire season was strongly correlated with latitude and longitude. Regional synchrony in the timing of the maximum burned area within fire seasons delineates opportunities for and limitations to sharing of fire suppression resources during periods of stress that were quantified in Monte Carlo simulations from the joint distribution.

Assessing accuracy of point fire intervals across landscapes with simulation modelling

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (9) ◽  
pp. 1605-1614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell A. Parsons ◽  
Emily K. Heyerdahl ◽  
Robert E. Keane ◽  
Brigitte Dorner ◽  
Joseph Fall
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Maximum Error ◽  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Forest Types ◽  
Fire Scar ◽  
Fire Intervals ◽  
In Fire

We assessed accuracy in point fire intervals using a simulation model that sampled four spatially explicit simulated fire histories. These histories varied in fire frequency and size and were simulated on a flat landscape with two forest types (dry versus mesic). We used three sampling designs (random, systematic grids, and stratified). We assessed the sensitivity of estimates of Weibull median probability fire intervals (WMPI) to sampling design and to factors that degrade the fire scar record: failure of a tree to record a fire and loss of fire-scarred trees. Accuracy was affected by all of the factors investigated and generally varied with fire regime type. The maximum error was from degradation of the record, primarily because degradation reduced the number of intervals from which WMPI was estimated. The sampling designs were roughly equal in their ability to capture overall WMPI, regardless of fire regime, but the gridded design yielded more accurate estimates of spatial variation in WMPI. Accuracy in WMPI increased with increasing number of points sampled for all fire regimes and sampling designs, but the number of points needed to obtain accurate estimates was greater for fire regimes with complex spatial patterns of fire intervals than for those with relatively homogeneous patterns.

A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 365-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Boulanger ◽  
Sylvie Gauthier ◽  
Philip J. Burton
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽  
Energy Flows ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Ecological Patterns ◽  
Administrative Units ◽  
In Fire

Broad-scale fire regime modelling is frequently based on large ecological and (or) administrative units. However, these units may not capture spatial heterogeneity in fire regimes and may thus lead to spatially inaccurate estimates of future fire activity. In this study, we defined homogeneous fire regime (HFR) zones for Canada based on annual area burned (AAB) and fire occurrence (FireOcc), and we used them to model future (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) fire activity using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). We identified a total of 16 HFR zones explaining 47.7% of the heterogeneity in AAB and FireOcc for the 1959–1999 period. MARS models based on HFR zones projected a 3.7-fold increase in AAB and a 3.0-fold increase in FireOcc by 2100 when compared with 1961–1990, with great interzone heterogeneity. The greatest increases would occur in zones located in central and northwestern Canada. Much of the increase in AAB would result from a sharp increase in fire activity during July and August. Ecozone- and HFR-based models projected relatively similar nationwide FireOcc and AAB. However, very high spatial discrepancies were noted between zonations over extensive areas. The proposed HFR zonation should help providing more spatially accurate estimates of future ecological patterns largely driven by fire in the boreal forest such as biodiversity patterns, energy flows, and carbon storage than those obtained from large-scale multipurpose classification units.

scholarly journals Frequent fires prime plant developmental responses to burning

2019 ◽  
Vol 286 (1909) ◽  
pp. 20191315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberley J. Simpson ◽  
Jill K. Olofsson ◽  
Brad S. Ripley ◽  
Colin P. Osborne
Keyword(s):  
Developmental Plasticity ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Exposure ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
Below Ground ◽  
Developmental Responses ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Plastic Responses

Coping with temporal variation in fire requires plants to have plasticity in traits that promote persistence, but how plastic responses to current conditions are affected by past fire exposure remains unknown. We investigate phenotypic divergence between populations of four resprouting grasses exposed to differing experimental fire regimes (annually burnt or unburnt for greater than 35 years) and test whether divergence persists after plants are grown in a common environment for 1 year. Traits relating to flowering and biomass allocation were measured before plants were experimentally burnt, and their regrowth was tracked. Genetic differentiation between populations was investigated for a subset of individuals. Historic fire frequency influenced traits relating to flowering and below-ground investment. Previously burnt plants produced more inflorescences and invested proportionally more biomass below ground, suggesting a greater capacity for recruitment and resprouting than unburnt individuals. Tiller-scale regrowth rate did not differ between treatments, but prior fire exposure enhanced total regrown biomass in two species. We found no consistent genetic differences between populations suggesting trait differences arose from developmental plasticity. Grass development is influenced by prior fire exposure, independent of current environmental conditions. This priming response to fire, resulting in adaptive trait changes, may produce communities more resistant to future fire regime changes.

scholarly journals Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in historical simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stijn Hantson ◽  
Douglas I. Kelley ◽  
Almut Arneth ◽  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
Sally Archibald ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Fire Model ◽  
Observational Uncertainty ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Vegetation Models

Abstract. Global fire-vegetation models are widely used to assess impacts of environmental change on fire regimes and the carbon cycle, and to infer relationships between climate, land use, and fire. However, differences in model structure and parameterizations, in both the vegetation and fire components of these models, could influence overall model performance, and to date there has been limited evaluation of how well different models represent various aspects of fire regimes. The Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) is coordinating the evaluation of state-of-the-art global fire models, with the aim of improving projections of fire regime characteristic and fire impacts on ecosystems and human societies under the context of global environmental change. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of historical simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. The FireMIP models simulate a wide range in global annual total burnt area (39–536 Mha), and global annual fire carbon emission (0.91–4.75 Pg C a−1) for modern conditions (2002–2012), but most of the range in burnt area is within observational uncertainty (345–468 Mha). Benchmarking scores indicate that seven out of nine FireMIP models are able to represent the spatial pattern in burnt area. The models also reproduce the seasonality in burnt area reasonably well but struggle to simulate fire season length and are largely unable to represent inter-annual variations in burnt area. However, models that represent cropland fires see improved simulation of fire seasonality in the northern hemisphere. The three FireMIP models which explicitly simulate individual fires are able to reproduce the spatial pattern in number of fires, but fire sizes are too small in key regions and this results in an underestimation of burnt area. The correct representation of spatial and seasonal patterns in vegetation appears to correlate with a better representation of burnt area. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.

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