Long-term Surface Temperature (LoST) database as a complement for GCM preindustrial simulations

Abstract. Estimates of climate sensitivity from general circulation model (GCM) simulations still present a large spread despite the continued improvements in climate modeling since the 1970s. This variability is partially caused by the dependence of several long-term feedback mechanisms on the reference climate state. Indeed, state-of-the-art GCMs present a large spread of control climate states probably due to the lack of a suitable reference for constraining the climatology of preindustrial simulations. We assemble a new gridded database of long-term ground surface temperatures (LoST database) obtained from geothermal data over North America, and we explore its use as a potential reference for the evaluation of GCM preindustrial simulations. We compare the LoST database with observations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) database, as well as with five past millennium transient climate simulations and five preindustrial control simulations from the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) and the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The database is consistent with meteorological observations as well as with both types of preindustrial simulations, which suggests that LoST temperatures can be employed as a reference to narrow down the spread of surface temperature climatologies on GCM preindustrial control and past millennium simulations.

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Long-term Surface Temperature (LoST) Database as a complement for GCM preindustrial simulations

10.5194/cp-2018-133 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Francisco José Cuesta-Valero ◽

Almudena García-García ◽

Hugo Beltrami ◽

Eduardo Zorita ◽

Fernando Jaume-Santero

Keyword(s):

Surface Temperature ◽

General Circulation ◽

Climate Modeling ◽

Ground Surface ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Large Spread ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Past Millennium

Abstract. Estimates of climate sensitivity from General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations still present a large spread despite the continued improvements in climate modeling since the 1970s. This variability is partially caused by the dependence of several long-term feedback mechanisms on the reference climate state. Indeed, state-of-the-art GCMs present a large spread of control climate states probably due to the lack of a suitable reference for constraining the climatology of preindustrial simulations. We assemble a new gridded database of long-term ground surface temperatures (LoST database) obtained from geothermal data over North America, and we explore its use as a potential reference for the evaluation of GCM preindustrial simulations. We compare the LoST database with observations from the CRU database, as well as with five past millennium transient climate simulations and five preindustrial control simulations from the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) and the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The database is consistent with meteorological observations as well as with both types of preindustrial simulations, which suggests that LoST temperatures can be employed as a reference to narrow down the spread of surface temperature climatologies on GCM preindustrial control and past millennium simulations.

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Long-term Surface Temperature (LoST) Database as a Complement for Transient and Control Preindustrial Simulations

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16519 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Francisco José Cuesta-Valero ◽

Almudena García-García ◽

Hugo Beltrami ◽

Eduardo Zorita ◽

Fernando Jaume Santero

Keyword(s):

Surface Temperature ◽

General Circulation ◽

Climate Modeling ◽

Ground Surface ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Temperature Profiles ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Past Millennium

<div>Estimates of climate sensitivity from Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations present a large spread despite the continued improvements in climate modeling since the 1970s. This variability is partially caused by the dependence of several long-term feedback mechanisms on the reference climate state. However, it is difficult to provide a reference to assess the climatology of preindustrial control simulations as there are no long-term preindustrial observations.<br>In the ground, recent changes in ground surface temperature are observed at shallow depths as perturbations to the quasi-steady state geothermal regime. However, if undisturbed by recent surface temperature changes, the deep ground temperatures vary linearly as a function of depth, and the extrapolation of this linear behavior to the surface can be interpreted as the past long-term surface temperature climatology.</div><div>We assemble a new gridded database of past long-term ground surface temperatures (LoST database) obtained from 514 borehole temperature profiles measured across North America, and we explore its use as a potential reference for the evaluation of GCM preindustrial control simulations and past millennium simulations. All temperature profiles are truncated at 300 m depth, allowing to estimate the ground surface climatology for the period 1300-1700 of the common era. We compare the LoST database with observations from the CRU database, as well as with five past millennium simulations and five preindustrial control simulations from the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) and the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archives. Our results suggest that LoST temperatures could be employed as a reference to narrow down the spread of surface temperature climatologies on GCM preindustrial control and past millennium simulations.</div>

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Quantification of uncertainty in reference evapotranspiration climate change signals in Belgium

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2016.243 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 48 (5) ◽

pp. 1391-1401 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Parisa Hosseinzadehtalaei ◽

Hossein Tabari ◽

Patrick Willems

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Reference Evapotranspiration ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Change Context ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Projected Changes ◽

Availability Assessment ◽

Comparable Magnitude

Projections of evapotranspiration form the basis of future runoff and water availability assessment in a climate change context. The scarcity of data or insufficiency of time/funds compels the application of simple reference evapotranspiration (ETo) methods requiring less meteorological inputs for ETo projections which adds uncertainty to the projected changes. This study investigates the bias in ETo climate change signals derived from seven simple temperature- and radiation-based methods (Blaney–Criddle, Hargreaves–Samani, Schendel, Makkink, Turc, Jensen–Haise, Tabari) compared with that from the standard Penman–Monteith FAO 56 method on the basis of 12 general circulation model (GCM) outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 for central Belgium for four future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). The results show the lack of conformity on the amount of ETo changes between the simple and standard methods, with biases of over 100% for some simple methods. The uncertainty affiliated with ETo methods for monthly ETo changes is smaller but of comparable magnitude to GCM uncertainty, which is usually the major source of uncertainty, and larger for daily extreme ETo changes. This emphasizes the imperative of addressing the uncertainty associated with ETo methods for quantifying the hydrological response to climate change.

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Climate and African precipitation changes in the mid-Holocene simulated using an Earth System Model MIROC-ESM

Climate of the Past Discussions ◽

10.5194/cpd-8-3277-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 3277-3343 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

R. Ohgaito ◽

T. Sueyoshi ◽

A. Abe-Ouchi ◽

T. Hajima ◽

S. Watanabe ◽

...

Keyword(s):

General Circulation ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Earth System Model ◽

System Model ◽

Earth System ◽

African Monsoon ◽

Proxy Records ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Precipitation Changes

Abstract. The importance of evaluating models using paleoclimate simulations is becoming more recognized in efforts to improve climate projection. To evaluate an integrated Earth System Model, MIROC-ESM, we performed simulations in time-slice experiments for the mid-Holocene (6000 yr before present, 6 ka) and preindustrial (1850 AD) times under the protocol of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5/Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3. We first overview the simulated global climates by comparing with simulations using a previous version of the MIROC model (MIROC3), which is an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model, and then comprehensively discuss various aspects of climate change with 6 ka forcing. We also discuss the 6 ka African monsoon activity. The 6 ka precipitation change over northern Africa according to MIROC-ESM does not differ dramatically from that obtained with MIROC3, which means that newly developed components such as dynamic vegetation and improvements in the atmospheric processes do not have significant impacts on representing the 6 ka monsoon change suggested by proxy records. Although there is no drastic difference in the African monsoon representation between the two models, there are small but significant differences in the precipitation enhancement in MIROC-ESM, which can be related to the representation of the sea surface temperature rather than the vegetation coupling, at least in MIROC-ESM.

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nonlinMIP contribution to CMIP6: model intercomparison project for non-linear mechanisms: physical basis, experimental design and analysis principles (v1.0)

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-9-4019-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 9 (11) ◽

pp. 4019-4028 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Peter Good ◽

Timothy Andrews ◽

Robin Chadwick ◽

Jean-Louis Dufresne ◽

Jonathan M. Gregory ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Experimental Design ◽

General Circulation ◽

Global Climate ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Circulation Model ◽

State Dependence ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Specific Policy ◽

Non Linear ◽

Intercomparison Project

Abstract. nonlinMIP provides experiments that account for state-dependent regional and global climate responses. The experiments have two main applications: (1) to focus understanding of responses to CO2 forcing on states relevant to specific policy or scientific questions (e.g. change under low-forcing scenarios, the benefits of mitigation, or from past cold climates to the present day), or (2) to understand the state dependence (non-linearity) of climate change – i.e. why doubling the forcing may not double the response. State dependence (non-linearity) of responses can be large at regional scales, with important implications for understanding mechanisms and for general circulation model (GCM) emulation techniques (e.g. energy balance models and pattern-scaling methods). However, these processes are hard to explore using traditional experiments, which explains why they have had so little attention in previous studies. Some single model studies have established novel analysis principles and some physical mechanisms. There is now a need to explore robustness and uncertainty in such mechanisms across a range of models (point 2 above), and, more broadly, to focus work on understanding the response to CO2 on climate states relevant to specific policy/science questions (point 1). nonlinMIP addresses this using a simple, small set of CO2-forced experiments that are able to separate linear and non-linear mechanisms cleanly, with a good signal-to-noise ratio – while being demonstrably traceable to realistic transient scenarios. The design builds on the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) protocols, and is centred around a suite of instantaneous atmospheric CO2 change experiments, with a ramp-up–ramp-down experiment to test traceability to gradual forcing scenarios. In all cases the models are intended to be used with CO2 concentrations rather than CO2 emissions as the input. The understanding gained will help interpret the spread in policy-relevant scenario projections. Here we outline the basic physical principles behind nonlinMIP, and the method of establishing traceability from abruptCO2 to gradual forcing experiments, before detailing the experimental design, and finally some analysis principles. The test of traceability from abruptCO2 to transient experiments is recommended as a standard analysis within the CMIP5 and CMIP6 DECK protocols.

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Time Variation of Effective Climate Sensitivity in GCMs

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2008jcli2371.1 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 21 (19) ◽

pp. 5076-5090 ◽

Cited By ~ 79

Author(s):

K. D. Williams ◽

W. J. Ingram ◽

J. M. Gregory

Keyword(s):

Climate Sensitivity ◽

Time Scale ◽

General Circulation ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity ◽

Mixed Layer Ocean ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Apparent Variation ◽

Centennial Time Scale

Abstract Effective climate sensitivity is often assumed to be constant (if uncertain), but some previous studies of general circulation model (GCM) simulations have found it varying as the simulation progresses. This complicates the fitting of simple models to such simulations, as well as having implications for the estimation of climate sensitivity from observations. This study examines the evolution of the feedbacks determining the climate sensitivity in GCMs submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Apparent centennial-time-scale variations of effective climate sensitivity during stabilization to a forcing can be considered an artifact of using conventional forcings, which only allow for instantaneous effects and stratospheric adjustment. If the forcing is adjusted for processes occurring on time scales that are short compared to the climate stabilization time scale, then there is little centennial-time-scale evolution of effective climate sensitivity in any of the GCMs. Here it is suggested that much of the apparent variation in effective climate sensitivity identified in previous studies is actually due to the comparatively fast forcing adjustment. Persistent differences are found in the strength of the feedbacks between the coupled atmosphere–ocean (AO) versions and their atmosphere–mixed layer ocean (AML) counterparts (the latter are often assumed to give the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the AOGCM). The AML model can typically only estimate the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the parallel AO version to within about 0.5 K. The adjustment to the forcing to account for comparatively fast processes varies in magnitude and sign between GCMs, as well as differing between AO and AML versions of the same model. There is evidence from one AOGCM that the forcing adjustment may take a couple of decades, with implications for observationally based estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity. It is suggested that at least some of the spread in twenty-first-century global temperature predictions between GCMs is due to differing adjustment processes, hence work to understand these differences should be a priority.

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GCAP 2.0: A global 3-D chemical-transport model framework for past, present, and future climate scenarios

10.5194/gmd-2021-144 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Lee Thomas Murray ◽

Eric M. Leibensperger ◽

Clara Orbe ◽

Loretta J. Mickley ◽

Melissa Sulprizio

Keyword(s):

General Circulation ◽

Transport Model ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Chemical Transport ◽

Recent Past ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

Model Framework ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Goddard Institute

Abstract. This manuscript describes version 2.0 of the Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model framework, a one-way offline coupling between version E2.1 of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemical-transport model (CTM). Meteorology for driving GEOS-Chem has been archived from the E2.1 contributions to Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the preindustrial and recent past. In addition, meteorology is available for the near future and end-of-the century for seven future scenarios ranging from extreme mitigation to extreme warming. Emissions and boundary conditions have been prepared for input to GEOS-Chem that are consistent with the CMIP6 experimental design. The model meteorology, emissions, transport and chemistry are evaluated in the recent past and found to be largely consistent with GEOS-Chem driven by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) product and with observational constraints.

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The HadGEM3-GA7.1 radiative kernel: the importance of a well-resolved stratosphere

10.5194/essd-2019-254 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Christopher J. Smith ◽

Ryan J. Kramer ◽

Adriana Sima

Keyword(s):

General Circulation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Atmospheric Model ◽

Stratospheric Temperature ◽

Linear Behaviour ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Stratospheric Cooling ◽

The Uk

Abstract. We present top-of-atmosphere and surface radiative kernels based on the atmospheric component (GA7.1) of the HadGEM3 general circulation model developed by the UK Met Office. We show that the utility of radiative kernels for forcing adjustments in idealised CO2 perturbation experiments is most appropriate where there is sufficiently high resolution in the stratosphere in both the target climate model and the radiative kernel. This is because stratospheric cooling to a CO2 perturbation continues to increase with height, and low-resolution or low-top kernels or climate model output are unable to fully resolve the full stratospheric temperature adjustment. In the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), standard atmospheric model data is available up to 1 hPa on 19 pressure levels, which is a substantial advantage compared to CMIP5. We show in the IPSL-CM6A-LR model where a full set of climate diagnostics are available that the HadGEM3-GA7.1 kernel exhibits linear behaviour and the residual error term is small. From kernels available in the literature we recommend three kernels for adjustment calculations to CO2 and well-mixed greenhouse gas perturbations based on their stratospheric resolution: HadGEM3-GA7.1, ECMWF-Oslo, and ECHAM6. The HadGEM3-GA7.1 radiative kernels are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3594673 (Smith, 2019).

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Retrospective Forecasts of Interannual Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies from 1982 to Present Using a Directly Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr3016.1 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 133 (10) ◽

pp. 2972-2995 ◽

Cited By ~ 55

Author(s):

David G. DeWitt

Keyword(s):

Surface Temperature ◽

Sea Surface Temperature ◽

General Circulation Model ◽

General Circulation ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Ocean General Circulation Model ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Initial Condition ◽

Ocean General Circulation

Abstract A large number of ensemble hindcasts (or retrospective forecasts) of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) have been made with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) that does not employ flux correction in order to evaluate the potential skill of the model as a seasonal forecasting tool. Oceanic initial conditions are provided by an ocean data assimilation system. Ensembles of seven forecasts of 6-month length are made starting each month in the 1982 to 2002 period. Skill of the coupled model is evaluated from both a deterministic and a probabilistic perspective. The skill metrics are calculated using both the bulk method, which includes all initial condition months together, and as a function of initial condition month. The latter method allows a more objective evaluation of how the model has performed in the context in which forecasts are actually made and applied. The deterministic metrics used are the anomaly correlation and the root-mean-square error. The coupled model deterministic skill metrics are compared with those from persistence and damped persistence reference forecasts. Despite the fact that the coupled model has a large cold bias in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific this coupled model is shown to have forecast skill that is competitive with other state-of-the-art forecasting techniques. Potential skill from probabilistic forecasts made using the coupled model ensemble members are evaluated using the relative operating characteristics method. This analysis indicates that for most initial condition months this coupled model has more skill at forecasting cold events than warm or neutral events in the central Pacific. In common with other forecasting systems, the coupled model forecast skill is found to be lowest for forecasts passing through the Northern Hemisphere (NH) spring. Diagnostics of this so-called spring predictability barrier in the context of this coupled model indicate that two factors likely contribute to this predictability barrier. First, the coupled model shows a too-weak coupling of the surface and subsurface temperature anomalies during NH spring. Second, the coupled-model-simulated signal-to-noise ratio for SST anomalies is much lower during NH spring than at other times of the year, indicating that the model’s potential predictability is low at this time.

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GCAP 2.0: a global 3-D chemical-transport model framework for past, present, and future climate scenarios

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-14-5789-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (9) ◽

pp. 5789-5823

Author(s):

Lee T. Murray ◽

Eric M. Leibensperger ◽

Clara Orbe ◽

Loretta J. Mickley ◽

Melissa Sulprizio

Keyword(s):

General Circulation ◽

Transport Model ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Chemical Transport ◽

Recent Past ◽

Chemical Transport Model ◽

Model Framework ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Goddard Institute

Abstract. This paper describes version 2.0 of the Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model framework, a one-way offline coupling between version E2.1 of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemical-transport model (CTM). Meteorology for driving GEOS-Chem has been archived from the E2.1 contributions to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the pre-industrial era and the recent past. In addition, meteorology is available for the near future and end of the century for seven future scenarios ranging from extreme mitigation to extreme warming. Emissions and boundary conditions have been prepared for input to GEOS-Chem that are consistent with the CMIP6 experimental design. The model meteorology, emissions, transport, and chemistry are evaluated in the recent past and found to be largely consistent with GEOS-Chem driven by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) product and with observational constraints.

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