scholarly journals LGM climate forcing and ocean dynamical feedback and their implications for estimating climate sensitivity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiang Zhu ◽  
Christopher J. Poulsen
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
True Value ◽  
Climate Forcings

Abstract. Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has been directly estimated using reconstructions of past climates that are different than today’s. A challenge to this approach is that temperature proxies integrate over the timescales of the fast feedback processes (e.g. changes in water vapor, snow, and clouds) that are captured in ECS as well as the slower feedback processes (e.g. changes in ice sheets and ocean circulation) that are not. A way around this issue is to treat the slow feedbacks as climate forcings and independently account for their impact on global temperature. Here we conduct a suite of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2) to quantify the forcing and efficacy of land ice sheets (LIS) and greenhouse gases (GHG) in order to estimate ECS. Our forcing and efficacy quantification adopts the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and adjustment framework and provides a complete accounting for the radiative, topographic, and dynamical impacts of LIS on surface temperatures. ERF and efficacy of LGM LIS are −3.2 W m−2 and 1.1, respectively. The larger-than-unity efficacy is caused by the relatively larger temperature changes over land and the Northern Hemisphere subtropical oceans than those in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The subtropical SST response is linked to LIS-induced wind changes and feedbacks in ocean-atmosphere coupling and clouds. ERF and efficacy of LGM GHG are −2.8 W m−2 and 0.9, respectively. The lower efficacy is primarily attributed to a smaller cloud feedback at colder temperatures. Our simulations further demonstrate that the direct ECS calculation using the forcing, efficacy, and temperature response in CESM1.2 overestimates the true value in the model by 25 % due to the neglect of slow ocean dynamical feedback. This is supported by the greater cooling (6.8 °C) in a fully coupled LGM simulation than that (5.3 °C) in a slab ocean model simulation with ocean dynamics disabled. The majority (67 %) of the ocean dynamical feedback is attributed to dynamical changes in the Southern Ocean, where interactions between ocean stratification, heat transport, and sea-ice cover are found to amplify the LGM cooling. Our study demonstrates the value of climate models in the quantification of climate forcings and the ocean dynamical feedback, which is necessary for an accurate direct ECS estimation.

scholarly journals Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate forcing and ocean dynamical feedback and their implications for estimating climate sensitivity

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 253-267
Author(s):  
Jiang Zhu ◽  
Christopher J. Poulsen
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
True Value ◽  
Climate Forcings

Abstract. Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has been directly estimated using reconstructions of past climates that are different than today's. A challenge to this approach is that temperature proxies integrate over the timescales of the fast feedback processes (e.g., changes in water vapor, snow, and clouds) that are captured in ECS as well as the slower feedback processes (e.g., changes in ice sheets and ocean circulation) that are not. A way around this issue is to treat the slow feedbacks as climate forcings and independently account for their impact on global temperature. Here we conduct a suite of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2) to quantify the forcing and efficacy of land ice sheets (LISs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) in order to estimate ECS. Our forcing and efficacy quantification adopts the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and adjustment framework and provides a complete accounting for the radiative, topographic, and dynamical impacts of LIS on surface temperatures. ERF and efficacy of LGM LIS are −3.2 W m−2 and 1.1, respectively. The larger-than-unity efficacy is caused by the temperature changes over land and the Northern Hemisphere subtropical oceans which are relatively larger than those in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The subtropical sea-surface temperature (SST) response is linked to LIS-induced wind changes and feedbacks in ocean–atmosphere coupling and clouds. ERF and efficacy of LGM GHG are −2.8 W m−2 and 0.9, respectively. The lower efficacy is primarily attributed to a smaller cloud feedback at colder temperatures. Our simulations further demonstrate that the direct ECS calculation using the forcing, efficacy, and temperature response in CESM1.2 overestimates the true value in the model by approximately 25 % due to the neglect of slow ocean dynamical feedback. This is supported by the greater cooling (6.8 ∘C) in a fully coupled LGM simulation than that (5.3 ∘C) in a slab ocean model simulation with ocean dynamics disabled. The majority (67 %) of the ocean dynamical feedback is attributed to dynamical changes in the Southern Ocean, where interactions between upper-ocean stratification, heat transport, and sea-ice cover are found to amplify the LGM cooling. Our study demonstrates the value of climate models in the quantification of climate forcings and the ocean dynamical feedback, which is necessary for an accurate direct ECS estimation.

Quantifying the Predictive Skill in Long-Range Forecasting. Part II: Model Error in Coarse-Grained Markov Models with Application to Ocean-Circulation Regimes

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 1814-1826 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Giannakis ◽  
Andrew J. Majda
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Markov Models ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Model Error ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Coarse Grained ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Relaxation To Equilibrium

Abstract An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictive skill and model error in imperfect climate models for long-range forecasting. Here, of key importance is a climate equilibrium consistency test for detecting false predictive skill, as well as an analogous criterion describing model error during relaxation to equilibrium. Climate equilibrium consistency enforces the requirement that long-range forecasting models should reproduce the climatology of prediction observables with high fidelity. If a model meets both climate consistency and the analogous criterion describing model error during relaxation to equilibrium, then relative entropy can be used as an unbiased superensemble measure of the model’s skill in long-range coarse-grained forecasts. As an application, the authors investigate the error in modeling regime transitions in a 1.5-layer ocean model as a Markov process and identify models that are strongly persistent but their predictive skill is false. The general techniques developed here are also useful for estimating predictive skill with model error for Markov models of low-frequency atmospheric regimes.

scholarly journals Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene Climate in CCSM3

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (11) ◽  
pp. 2526-2544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner ◽  
Esther C. Brady ◽  
Gabriel Clauzet ◽  
Robert Tomas ◽  
Samuel Levis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Global Cooling ◽  
Climate Forcings ◽  
Continental Ice Sheets

Abstract The climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) is studied for two past climate forcings, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene. The LGM, approximately 21 000 yr ago, is a glacial period with large changes in the greenhouse gases, sea level, and ice sheets. The mid-Holocene, approximately 6000 yr ago, occurred during the current interglacial with primary changes in the seasonal solar irradiance. The LGM CCSM3 simulation has a global cooling of 4.5°C compared to preindustrial (PI) conditions with amplification of this cooling at high latitudes and over the continental ice sheets present at LGM. Tropical sea surface temperature (SST) cools by 1.7°C and tropical land temperature cools by 2.6°C on average. Simulations with the CCSM3 slab ocean model suggest that about half of the global cooling is explained by the reduced LGM concentration of atmospheric CO2 (∼50% of present-day concentrations). There is an increase in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Antarctic Bottom Water formation, and with increased ocean stratification, somewhat weaker and much shallower North Atlantic Deep Water. The mid-Holocene CCSM3 simulation has a global, annual cooling of less than 0.1°C compared to the PI simulation. Much larger and significant changes occur regionally and seasonally, including a more intense northern African summer monsoon, reduced Arctic sea ice in all months, and weaker ENSO variability.

scholarly journals Changes in the width of the tropical belt due to simple radiative forcing changes in the GeoMIP simulations

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (15) ◽  
pp. 10083-10095 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas A. Davis ◽  
Dian J. Seidel ◽  
Thomas Birner ◽  
Sean M. Davis ◽  
Simone Tilmes
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Solar Constant ◽  
Cell Width ◽  
Climate Forcings

Abstract. Model simulations of future climates predict a poleward expansion of subtropical arid climates at the edges of Earth's tropical belt, which would have significant environmental and societal impacts. This expansion may be related to the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edges, where subsidence stabilizes the atmosphere and suppresses precipitation. Understanding the primary drivers of tropical expansion is hampered by the myriad forcing agents in most model projections of future climate. While many previous studies have examined the response of idealized models to simplified climate forcings and the response of comprehensive climate models to more complex climate forcings, few have examined how comprehensive climate models respond to simplified climate forcings. To shed light on robust processes associated with tropical expansion, here we examine how the tropical belt width, as measured by the Hadley cell edges, responds to simplified forcings in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The tropical belt expands in response to a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and contracts in response to a reduction in the solar constant, with a range of a factor of 3 in the response among nine models. Models with more surface warming and an overall stronger temperature response to quadrupled carbon dioxide exhibit greater tropical expansion, a robust result in spite of inter-model differences in the mean Hadley cell width, parameterizations, and numerical schemes. Under a scenario where the solar constant is reduced to offset an instantaneous quadrupling of carbon dioxide, the Hadley cells remain at their preindustrial width, despite the residual stratospheric cooling associated with elevated carbon dioxide levels. Quadrupled carbon dioxide produces greater tropical belt expansion in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. This expansion is strongest in austral summer and autumn. Ozone depletion has been argued to cause this pattern of changes in observations and model experiments, but the results here indicate that seasonally and hemispherically asymmetric tropical expansion can be a basic response of the general circulation to climate forcings.

scholarly journals Multi-grid algorithm for passive tracer transport in the NEMO ocean circulation model: a case study with the NEMO OGCM (version 3.6)

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5465-5483
Author(s):  
Clément Bricaud ◽  
Julien Le Sommer ◽  
Gurvan Madec ◽  
Christophe Calone ◽  
Julie Deshayes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Passive Tracer ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
Ocean Circulation Model ◽  
Grid Algorithm

Abstract. Ocean biogeochemical models are key tools for both scientific and operational applications. Nevertheless the cost of these models is often expensive because of the large number of biogeochemical tracers. This has motivated the development of multi-grid approaches where ocean dynamics and tracer transport are computed on grids of different spatial resolution. However, existing multi-grid approaches to tracer transport in ocean modelling do not allow the computation of ocean dynamics and tracer transport simultaneously. This paper describes a new multi-grid approach developed for accelerating the computation of passive tracer transport in the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean circulation model. In practice, passive tracer transport is computed at runtime on a grid with coarser spatial resolution than the hydrodynamics, which reduces the CPU cost of computing the evolution of tracers. We describe the multi-grid algorithm, its practical implementation in the NEMO ocean model, and discuss its performance on the basis of a series of sensitivity experiments with global ocean model configurations. Our experiments confirm that the spatial resolution of hydrodynamical fields can be coarsened by a factor of 3 in both horizontal directions without significantly affecting the resolved passive tracer fields. Overall, the proposed algorithm yields a reduction by a factor of 7 of the overhead associated with running a full biogeochemical model like PISCES (with 24 passive tracers). Propositions for further reducing this cost without affecting the resolved solution are discussed.

Influence of Ocean and Atmosphere Components on Simulated Climate Sensitivities

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 231-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Winton ◽  
Alistair Adcroft ◽  
Stephen M. Griffies ◽  
Robert W. Hallberg ◽  
Larry W. Horowitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Salinity Response ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The influence of alternative ocean and atmosphere subcomponents on climate model simulation of transient sensitivities is examined by comparing three GFDL climate models used for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The base model ESM2M is closely related to GFDL’s CMIP3 climate model version 2.1 (CM2.1), and makes use of a depth coordinate ocean component. The second model, ESM2G, is identical to ESM2M but makes use of an isopycnal coordinate ocean model. The authors compare the impact of this “ocean swap” with an “atmosphere swap” that produces the GFDL Climate Model version 3 (CM3) by replacing the AM2 atmospheric component with AM3 while retaining a depth coordinate ocean model. The atmosphere swap is found to have much larger influence on sensitivities of global surface temperature and Northern Hemisphere sea ice cover. The atmosphere swap also introduces a multidecadal response time scale through its indirect influence on heat uptake. Despite significant differences in their interior ocean mean states, the ESM2M and ESM2G simulations of these metrics of climate change are very similar, except for an enhanced high-latitude salinity response accompanied by temporarily advancing sea ice in ESM2G. In the ESM2G historical simulation this behavior results in the establishment of a strong halocline in the subpolar North Atlantic during the early twentieth century and an associated cooling, which are counter to observations in that region. The Atlantic meridional overturning declines comparably in all three models.

scholarly journals Including the efficacy of land ice changes in deriving climate sensitivity from paleodata

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 333-345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennert B. Stap ◽  
Peter Köhler ◽  
Gerrit Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of climate models is calculated as the equilibrium global mean surface air warming resulting from a simulated doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. In these simulations, long-term processes in the climate system, such as land ice changes, are not incorporated. Hence, climate sensitivity derived from paleodata has to be compensated for these processes, when comparing it to the ECS of climate models. Several recent studies found that the impact these long-term processes have on global temperature cannot be quantified directly through the global radiative forcing they induce. This renders the prevailing approach of deconvoluting paleotemperatures through a partitioning based on radiative forcings inaccurate. Here, we therefore implement an efficacy factor ε[LI] that relates the impact of land ice changes on global temperature to that of CO2 changes in our calculation of climate sensitivity from paleodata. We apply our refined approach to a proxy-inferred paleoclimate dataset, using ε[LI]=0.45-0.20+0.34 based on a multi-model assemblage of simulated relative influences of land ice changes on the Last Glacial Maximum temperature anomaly. The implemented ε[LI] is smaller than unity, meaning that per unit of radiative, forcing the impact on global temperature is less strong for land ice changes than for CO2 changes. Consequently, our obtained ECS estimate of 5.8±1.3 K, where the uncertainty reflects the implemented range in ε[LI], is ∼50 % higher than when differences in efficacy are not considered.

scholarly journals An Equatorial Ocean Bottleneck in Global Climate Models

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 343-349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristopher B. Karnauskas ◽  
Gregory C. Johnson ◽  
Raghu Murtugudde
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Momentum Balance ◽  
Equatorial Ocean ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) is a major component of the tropical Pacific Ocean circulation. EUC velocity in most global climate models is sluggish relative to observations. Insufficient ocean resolution slows the EUC in the eastern Pacific where nonlinear terms should dominate the zonal momentum balance. A slow EUC in the east creates a bottleneck for the EUC to the west. However, this bottleneck does not impair other major components of the tropical circulation, including upwelling and poleward transport. In most models, upwelling velocity and poleward transport divergence fall within directly estimated uncertainties. Both of these transports play a critical role in a theory for how the tropical Pacific may change under increased radiative forcing, that is, the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism. These findings suggest that, in the mean, global climate models may not underrepresent the role of equatorial ocean circulation, nor perhaps bias the balance between competing mechanisms for how the tropical Pacific might change in the future. Implications for model improvement under higher resolution are also discussed.

scholarly journals Inter-hemispheric seasonal comparison of Polar Amplification using radiative forcing of quadrupling CO<sub>2</sub> experiment

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernanda Casagrande ◽  
Ronald Buss de Souza ◽  
Paulo Nobre ◽  
Andre Lanfer Marquez
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Polar Amplification

Abstract. The numerical climate simulation from Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) are used here to investigate the response of Polar Regions to a forced increase of CO2 (Abrupt-4xCO2) and compared with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations. Polar Regions are described as the most climatically sensitive areas of the globe, with an enhanced warming occurring during the cold seasons. The asymmetry between the two poles is related to the thermal inertia and the coupled ocean atmosphere processes involved. While in the northern high latitudes the amplified warming signal is associated to a positive snow and sea ice albedo feedback, for southern high latitudes the warming is related to a combination of ozone depletion and changes in the winds pattern. The numerical experiments conducted here demonstrated a very clear evidence of seasonality in the polar amplification response. In winter, for the northern high latitudes (southern high latitudes) the range of simulated polar warming varied from 15 K to 30 K (2.6 K to 10 K). In summer, for northern high latitudes (southern high latitudes) the simulated warming varies from 3 K to 15 K (3 K to 7 K). The vertical profiles of air temperature indicated stronger warming at surface, particularly for the Arctic region, suggesting that the albedo-sea ice feedback overlaps with the warming caused by meridional transport of heat in atmosphere. The latitude of the maximum warming was inversely correlated with changes in the sea ice within the model’s control run. Three climate models were identified as having high polar amplification for cold season in both poles: MIROC-ESM, BESM-OA V2.5 and GFDL-ESM2M. We suggest that the large BIAS found between models can be related to the differences in each model to represent the feedback process and also as a consequence of the distinct sea ice initial conditions of each model. The polar amplification phenomenon has been observed previously and is expected to become stronger in coming decades. The consequences for the atmospheric and ocean circulation are still subject to intense debate in the scientific community.

Comparisons of atmosphere–ocean simulations of greenhouse gas-induced climate change for pre-industrial and hypothetical ‘no-anthropogenic’ radiative forcing, relative to present day

The Holocene ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 793-801 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.E. Kutzbach ◽  
S.J. Vavrus ◽  
W.F. Ruddiman ◽  
G. Philippon-Berthier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Lower Surface ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Slab Ocean

We compare climate simulations for Present-Day (PD), Pre-Industrial (PI) time, and a hypothetical (inferred) state termed No-Anthropogenic (NA) based upon the low greenhouse gas (GHG) levels of the late stages of previous interglacials that are comparable in time (orbital configuration) to the present interglacial. We use a fully coupled dynamical atmosphere–ocean model, the CCSM3. We find a consistent trend toward colder climate (lower surface temperature, more snow and sea-ice cover, lower ocean temperature, and modified ocean circulation) as the net change in GHG radiative forcing trends more negative from PD to PI to NA. The climatic response of these variables becomes larger relative to the changed GHG forcing for each step toward a colder climate state (PD to PI to NA). This amplification is significantly enhanced using the dynamical atmosphere–ocean model compared with our previous results with an atmosphere–slab ocean model, a result that conforms to earlier idealized GHG forcing experiments. However, in our case this amplification is not an idealized result, but instead helps frame important questions concerning aspects of Holocene climate change. This enhanced amplification effect leads to an increase in our estimate of the climate’s response to inferred early anthropogenic CO2 increases (NA to PI) relative to the response to industrial-era CO2 increases (PI to PD). Although observations of the climate for the hypothetical NA (inferred from observations of previous interglacials) and for PI have significant uncertainties, our new results using CCSM3 are in better agreement with these observations than our previous results from an atmospheric model coupled to a static slab ocean. The results support more strongly inferences by Ruddiman concerning indirect effects of ocean solubility/sea-ice/deep ocean ventilation feedbacks that may have contributed to a further increase in late-Holocene atmospheric CO2 beyond that caused by early anthropogenic emissions alone.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document