scholarly journals On the economic impact of droughts in Central Europe. The decade from 1531 to 1540 from the Polish perspective

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomasz Związek ◽  
Piotr Guzowski ◽  
Radosław Poniat ◽  
Maciej Tomasz Radomski ◽  
Monika Kozłowska-Szyc ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Tax Exemptions ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Economic Boom ◽  
Written Sources

Abstract. The period from around 1450 to 1550 in Europe is extremely interesting from the perspective of research on extreme weather events. It was a period of events that strongly influenced the societies and economies of the Old Continent. So far, the literature has been more focused on Western and Northern Europe, while as regards the region of Central Europe, the greatest attention was paid to the Czech Republic or Hungary. This article revolves around the Polish lands, which experienced their greatest economic boom in the 16th century. We consider whether and how the droughts of the decade from 1531 to 1540 might have affected the country’s economic development. We analyze a number of written sources which are the product of the treasury apparatus of the time (tax registers, data from water customs, tax exemptions, inventories of land estates etc.), but also information on fluctuations in product prices in the most important cities in this part of Europe. The work not only provides a detailed account of economic data, but also attempts to reflect on the relevance of linking information on fires in urban centres in the period characterized by weather extremes.

Major weather-related risks to crop performance along the Australian wheat belt for recent past and longer-term historical weather records

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gennady Bracho Mujica ◽  
Peter Hayman ◽  
Victor Sadras ◽  
Bertram Ostendorf ◽  
Nicole Ferreira C. R. ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Grain Yield ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Crop Failure ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Australian Wheat ◽  
Historical Past

<p>Extreme events, such as drought, heat and/or frost are among the major weather-related causes of yield reduction and crop failure worldwide. Changes in the frequency and intensity of such weather extremes affect the shape and scale of yield distributions. Wheat growers, in Australia, are particularly vulnerable to climate due to its high variability. Risks of both, extremely high or low temperatures and water stress occurring simultaneously or at different crop stages within the growing season (May-October, e.g. frost mid-season, drought during the season and heat towards the end) often lead to yield reductions, or sometimes even to crop failure. In this study, we focused on assessing the frequency and impact of these relevant extreme weather events (i.e. drought, heat and frost) affecting wheat production in Australia. Specifically, we used a widely used and calibrated crop model (APSIM) to simulate wheat grain yield, and determine probability density functions (PDFs) of grain yield and crop failure. Chances of crop failure due to these extreme events are explored for the recent past (1991-2020) and the longer-term historical past (1901-1990). Key adaption strategies to minimise the impacts of these extreme events, and reduce crop failure risk are assessed in this study, including early sowing and cultivar choice. Our findings are in line with recent studies, indicating that drought and heat are major risk factors contributing to reduced yields or crop failure. However, due to the timing, frequency and impacts of frost events on wheat productivity, frost also remains a relevant risk for the wheat industry in Australia.</p>

Okruchy starożytności. Użytkowanie monet antycznych w Europie Środkowej, Wschodniej i Północnej w średniowieczu i w okresie nowożytnym

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Middle Ages ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Eastern Germany ◽  
Modern Period ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
Written Sources

Ancient coinage (understood here as pre-AD 6th century Greek, Celtic and Roman issues) constitutes a small percentage of hoards and other assemblages found in Central, Eastern and Northern Europe, dated to the Middle Ages and to the modern period. Ancient coins have also been recorded at other sites in contexts dated to the same time, such as burial or settlement sites. Finds sometimes include pierced coins, which suggests they may have been used as amulets or jewellery. The book contains the texts written by researchers from Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, Sweden and Denmark. The aim of their studies of the archaeological, numismatic and written sources was to examine the use of ancient coins in the territories of present-day Poland, Baltic States, western Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, eastern Germany and Scandinavia in a period spanning from approximately 7th century to the turn of the 18th century.

A New Avenue of Research for Improving the Predictability of Weather Extremes - The Eastern Mediterranen as a Case Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Assaf Hochman ◽  
Pinhas Alpert ◽  
Hadas Saaroni ◽  
Tzvi Harpaz ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Systems Perspective ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Mediterranean

<p>Extreme weather events have long been considered challenging to predict. It is likely that global warming will trigger extreme weather in many regions of the globe and especially over the Mediterranean ´hot spot´. Therefore, extreme weather events have been selected as one of the grand challenges of the World Climate Research Program.</p><p>The intrinsic predictability of a weather system, or any dynamical system, depends on its persistence and its active number of degrees of freedom. Recent developments in dynamical systems theory allow to compute these metrics for atmospheric configurations (1). In most of the mid-latitudes, synoptic scale patterns exert a strong control on regional weather, thus, stimulating a broad interest, especially in weather forecasting. Recently, we have integrated the dynamical systems approach with a synoptic classification algorithm over the Eastern Mediterranean (2).  It was shown that the dynamical systems perspective provides an extremely informative tool for evaluating the predictability of synoptic patterns and especially of weather extremes.</p><p>The novel perspective, which leverages a dynamical systems approach to investigate the predictability of extreme weather events, outlines a new avenue of research that may be fruitfully applied at operational weather and climate forecasting services in the Mediterranean Region and around the globe.</p><p><strong>References</strong></p><ol><li>Faranda D, Messori G, Yiou P. 2017. Dynamical Proxies of North Atlantic Predictability and Extremes. Scientific Reports <strong>7</strong>, 412782017b. DOI: 10.1038/srep4127</li> <li>Hochman A, Alpert P, Harpaz T, Saaroni H, Messori G. 2019. A New Dynamical Systems Perspective on Atmospheric Predictability; Eastern Mediterranean Weather Regimes as a Case Study. Science Advances <strong>5</strong>. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau0936</li> </ol>

scholarly journals Extreme Weather Events and their Consequences

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract The damage (in real terms after adjusting for inflation) caused by extreme weather events globally has increased dramatically over the past few decades. This is a result of an increase in the amplitude and frequency of weather extremes, as well as of human factors causing a widespread increase in levels of exposure and vulnerability. There are a number of reasons to consider that, in many regions of the globe, weather extremes (e.g. heat waves, droughts, forest fires, intense rainfall, floods and landslides) are becoming both yet more extreme and more frequent. Projections for the future based on climate and impact models point to a further strengthening of this trend. There has already been an increase in rainfall intensity in conditions of a warmer climate, and a continuation of this trend is expected, with adverse consequences for flood risk. However, the development of flood-prone areas and increase in damage potential are often the dominant factors underpinning growing flood damage and flood risk. In warmer climates, an increased risk of river and flash flooding caused by heavy rainfall, as well as an increasing risk of coastal flooding associated with sea level rise can be expected over large areas. By the same token, a reduction in the risk of snowmelt flooding events is projected in the warmer climate. Projections also indicate an increased risk of drought in many areas. The projections for climate change in Poland point to several risks associated with an increase in the frequency, intensity and severity of weather extremes (heat waves, intensive rainfall, flooding and landslides, coastal surges, drought during the growing season and winter, strong winds and pathogens associated with warming). Heat waves will become more frequent, more intense and more troublesome for the ageing population of Poland.

scholarly journals Characterising the relationship between weather extremes in Europe and synoptic circulation features

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 1867-1911 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Pfahl
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Wind Gust ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The North

Abstract. Extreme weather events in Europe are closely linked to anomalies of the atmospheric circulation and in particular to circulation features like cyclones and atmospheric blocking. In this study, this linkage is systematically characterised with the help of conditional cyclone and blocking frequencies during precipitation, wind gust and temperature extremes at various locations in Europe. Such conditional frequency fields can serve as a dynamical fingerprint of the extreme events and yield insights into their most important physical driving mechanisms. Precipitation extremes over the ocean and over flat terrain are shown to be closely related to cyclones in the vicinity and the associated dynamical lifting. For extreme precipitation over complex terrain, cyclone anomalies are found at more remote locations, favouring the flow of moist air towards the topography. Wind gust extremes are associated with cyclone and blocking anomalies in opposite directions, with the cyclones occurring mostly over the North and Baltic Seas for extreme events in central Europe. This setting is associated with pronounced surface pressure gradients and thus high near-surface wind velocities. Hot temperature extremes in northern and central Europe typically occur in the vicinity of a blocking anticyclone, where subsidence and radiative forcing are strong. Over southern Europe, blocking anomalies are shifted more to the north or northeast, indicating a more important role of warm air advection. Large-scale flow conditions for cold extremes are similar at many locations in Europe, with blocking anomalies over the North Atlantic and northern Europe and cyclone anomalies southeast of the cold extreme, both contributing to the advection of cold air masses. This characterisation of synoptic-scale forcing mechanisms can be helpful for better understanding and anticipating weather extremes and their long-term changes.

scholarly journals Occurrence and mechanisms of extreme winter air temperatures in the Arctic and surrounding continents

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timo Vihma ◽  
Petteri Uotila ◽  
Tuomas Naakka ◽  
Tiina Nygård
Keyword(s):  
High Pressure ◽  
North America ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Northern China ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Cold Air ◽  
Weather Events

<p>The recent rapid warming of the Arctic atmosphere and ocean and related sea ice decline have been associated with increasing occurrence of extreme weather events in the Arctic. Applying ERA-Interim reanalysis, we identify 100 days with largest positive and negative anomalies (compared to local climatology) in 2-m air temperature (T2m) in the Northern Hemisphere in winter during 2005-2019, and address various physical mechanisms contributing to these events. The mechanisms responsible for warm extremes in the Arctic are often associated with a meandering Polar front jet stream, favouring cases of large transports of heat and moisture from mid-latitudes to the Arctic. In addition, subsidence heating often contributes to warm extremes in the Arctic, allowing them to occur also under high-pressure conditions. The coldest T2m anomalies north of 30<sup>o</sup>N mostly occur in regions that are also climatologically cold, i.e., cannot be strongly affected by cold-air advection. This suggests a dominating role local surface energy budget and boundary-layer processes.</p><p>Extreme weather events often interact with anomalies in sea ice concentration. Cases of strong winds transporting warm, moist air masses to the Arctic provide both dynamic and thermodynamic forcing for large sea ice anomalies, and during winter the openings in sea ice field contribute to air temperature extremes via large heat fluxes from the ocean to atmosphere.</p><p>Coldest winter extremes in mid-latitudes are typically associated with meandering jet stream and high-pressure blockings, but show differences between Central Europe, North America and northern China. In Central Europe the coldest events are typically associated with cold-air advection from the East or Northeast, whereas during the coldest events in North American East Coast the cold air is transported from the North. In northern China, the coldest events often occur under high-pressure conditions with weak winds. Accordingly, the role of cold-air advection is much smaller than in the case of the coldest events in North America.</p>

scholarly journals Characterising the relationship between weather extremes in Europe and synoptic circulation features

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1461-1475 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Pfahl
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Wind Gust ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The North

Abstract. Extreme weather events in Europe are closely linked to anomalies of the atmospheric circulation and in particular to circulation features like cyclones and atmospheric blocking. In this study, this linkage is systematically characterised with the help of conditional cyclone and blocking frequencies during precipitation, wind gust and temperature extremes at various locations in Europe. Such conditional frequency fields can serve as a dynamical fingerprint of the extreme events and yield insights into their most important physical driving mechanisms. Precipitation extremes over the ocean and over flat terrain are shown to be closely related to cyclones in the vicinity and the associated dynamical lifting. For extreme precipitation over complex terrain, cyclone anomalies are found at more remote locations, favouring the flow of moist air towards the topography. Wind gust extremes are associated with cyclone and blocking anomalies in opposite directions, with the cyclones occurring mostly over the North and Baltic seas for extreme events in central Europe. This setting is associated with pronounced surface pressure gradients and thus high near-surface wind velocities. Hot temperature extremes in northern and central Europe typically occur in the vicinity of a blocking anticyclone, where subsidence and radiative forcing are strong. Over southern Europe, blocking anomalies are shifted more to the north or northeast, indicating a more important role of warm air advection. Large-scale flow conditions for cold extremes are similar at many locations in Europe, with blocking anomalies over the North Atlantic and northern Europe and cyclone anomalies southeast of the cold extreme, both contributing to the advection of cold air masses. This characterisation of synoptic-scale forcing mechanisms can be helpful for better understanding and anticipating weather extremes and their long-term changes.

scholarly journals Weather extremes : A spatio-temporal perspectives

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-52
Author(s):  
L. S. RATHORE ◽  
D. R. PATTANAIK ◽  
S. C. BHAN
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Dust Storms ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Cold Waves ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Being mainly an agricultural country the economy of India and its growth mainly depends on the vagaries of the weather and in particular the extreme weather events. India with a land of unique climatic regime due to several characteristic features, including (i) two monsoon seasons (south-west and north-east) leading to drought & flood condition, active and break cycle of monsoon and also heavy rainfall leading to flash flood and landslides, (ii) two cyclone seasons (pre and post-monsoon cyclone seasons), (iii) hot weather season characterized by severe thunderstorms, dust storms and heat waves, (iv) cold weather season characterized by violent snow storms in the Himalayan regions, cold waves and fog. The socio-economic impacts of the extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, heavy rainfall, cyclones, hail storm, thunderstorm, heat and cold waves have been increasing due to large growth of population and urbanizations, which has led to greater vulnerability. A spatio-temporal analysis of these weather extremes over India will be very helpful to understand the vulnerability potential and to improve the forecast skill and use these forecasts in minimizing the adverse impacts of such weather extremes. 

scholarly journals 18th-Century Daily Measurements and Weather Observations in the Se-Carpathian Basin: A Preliminary Analysis of the Timişoara Series (1780-1803)

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ildikó Csernus-Molnár ◽  
Andrea Kiss ◽  
Edit Pócsik
Keyword(s):  
18Th Century ◽  
Carpathian Basin ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Weather Observations ◽  
Measurement Series ◽  
Observation Series ◽  
Weather Observation

Abstract Covering a period of 23 years, the Timişoara (in historical Banat region; today SW-Romania) series is the earliest known long-term 18th-century daily measurement (temperature, pressure) and weather observation series (precipitation, sky coverage, meteorological extremes), preserved in the south-eastern lowlands of the Carpathian Basin. Based on data derived from the original weather diary of the royal pharmacist Karl Joseph Klapka, in this paper the early instrumental measurement and daily observation series is presented referring to the temperature, pressure, precipitation conditions, cloudiness, wind, types of precipitation and extreme weather events that occurred in Timişoara in the period of 1780 -1803. The two daily temperature measurement series show very high (over r=0.95) correlations, while pressure series are also in good agreement with other known late 18th-century measurement series of the same period in the Carpathian Basin (Buda, Miskolc and Kežmarok). The Timişoara-series also contains important information concerning such weather extremes as the severe winter of 1784 or the unusual number of summer fog events in 1783 (presumably related to the Icelandic Lakagígar eruption), which are also reported in the present paper.

scholarly journals From Atmospheric Waves to Heatwaves: A Waveguide Perspective for Understanding and Predicting Concurrent, Persistent and Extreme Extratropical Weather

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-35
Author(s):  
Rachel H. White ◽  
Kai Kornhuber ◽  
Olivia Martius ◽  
Volkmar Wirth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Surface Weather ◽  
The Impact

AbstractA notable number of high impact weather extremes have occurred in recent years, often associated with persistent, strongly meandering atmospheric circulation patterns known as Rossby waves. Because of the high societal and ecosystem impacts, it is of great interest to be able to accurately project how such extreme events will change with climate change, and to predict these events on seasonal to subseasonal (S2S) timescales. There are multiple physical links connecting upper atmosphere circulation patterns to surface weather extremes, and it is asking a lot of our dynamical models to accurately simulate all of these. Subsequently, our confidence in future projections and S2S forecasts of extreme events connected to Rossby waves remains relatively low. We also lack full fundamental theories for the growth and propagation of Rossby waves on the spatial and temporal scales relevant to extreme events, particularly under strongly non-linear conditions. By focussing on one of the first links in the chain from upper atmospheric conditions to surface extremes -- the Rossby waveguide -- it may be possible to circumvent some model biases in later links. To further our understanding of the nature of waveguides, links to persistent surface weather events and their representation in models, we recommend: exploring these links in model hierarchies of increasing complexity, developing fundamental theory, exploiting novel large ensemble data sets, harnessing deep learning, and increased community collaboration. This would help increase understanding and confidence in both S2S predictions of extremes and of projections of the impact of climate change on extreme weather events.

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