Fire - climate interactions in a warming world

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guido van der Werf ◽  
James Randerson ◽  
Louis Giglio ◽  
Dave van Wees ◽  
Niels Andela ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Global Pattern ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Fuel Loads ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Rate Of Decline ◽  
Fire Climate Interactions ◽  
Warming World

<p>Elevated fire activity in 2019 across the arctic, Amazon, Australia, and other regions sparked a discussion about the role of climate change for the recent rise in biomass burning.  Given that drivers of fire vary widely between different fire types and regions, interpreting trends requires a regional breakdown of the global pattern. Our Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) now provides nearly 25 years of consistent data and offers important insights into changing fire activity. The GFED record captures a global decline in burned area, driven mostly by reductions in savanna fires from fragmentation and land use change. The global declining trend is therefore driven by areas with relatively low fuel loads where fire often decreases during drought.  Here, we report on increasing fire trends in several other regions, which become even more apparent when proxy data from before the satellite era are included. Increasing trends are concentrated in areas with higher fuel loads that burn more easily under drought conditions, and where warming leads to increasing vapor pressure deficits that contribute to more extreme fire weather and higher combustion completeness values. Therefore, the rate of decline in fire emissions is less pronounced than that in burned area, and emissions of several reduced gases have actually increased over time. The historic time series provides important context for trends and drivers of regions that burned extensively in 2019, and moving beyond burned area to estimate fire emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols is critical to assess how these events may feed back on climate change if trends continue.     </p>

scholarly journals Wetter environment and increased grazing reduced the area burned in northern Eurasia: 2002–2016

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Min Hao ◽  
Matthew C. Reeves ◽  
L. Scott Baggett ◽  
Yves Balkanski ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Fire Activity

Abstract. Northern Eurasia is highly sensitive to climate change. Fires in this region can have significant impacts on regional air quality, radiative forcing and black carbon deposition in the Arctic to accelerate ice melting. Using a MODIS-derived burned area data set, we report that the total annual area burned in this region declined by 53 % during the 15-year period of 2002–2016. Grassland fires dominated the trend, accounting for 93 % of the decline of the total area burned. Grassland fires in Kazakhstan contributed 47 % of the total area burned and 84 % of the decline. Wetter climate and increased grazing are the principle driving forces for the decline. Our findings: 1) highlight the importance of the complex interactions of climate-vegetation-land use in affecting fire activity, and 2) reveal how the resulting impacts on fire activity in a relatively small region such as Kazakhstan can dominate the trends of burned areas across a much larger landscape of northern Eurasia. Our findings may be used to improve the prediction of future fire dynamics and associated fire emissions in northern Eurasia.

scholarly journals Identifying required model structures to predict global fire activity from satellite and climate data

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Forkel ◽  
Wouter Dorigo ◽  
Gitta Lasslop ◽  
Irene Teubner ◽  
Emilio Chuvieco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Fire Models ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Process Oriented ◽  
Density And Biomass ◽  
Global Vegetation ◽  
Model Structures

Abstract. Vegetation fires affect human infrastructures, ecosystems, global vegetation distribution, and atmospheric composition. In particular, extreme fire conditions can cause devastating impacts on ecosystems and human society and dominate the year-to-year variability in global fire emissions. However, the climatic, environmental and socioeconomic factors that control fire activity in vegetation are only poorly understood and consequently it is unclear which components, structures, and complexities are required in global vegetation/fire models to accurately predict fire activity at a global scale. Here we introduce the SOFIA (Satellite Observations for FIre Activity) modelling approach, which integrates several satellite and climate datasets and different empirical model structures to systematically identify required structural components in global vegetation/fire models to predict burned area. Models result in the highest performance in predicting the spatial patterns and temporal variability of burned area if they account for a direct suppression of fire activity at wet conditions and if they include a land cover-dependent suppression or allowance of fire activity by vegetation density and biomass. The use of new vegetation optical depth data from microwave satellite observations, a proxy for vegetation biomass and water content, reaches higher model performance than commonly used vegetation variables from optical sensors. The SOFIA approach implements and confirms conceptual models where fire activity follows a biomass gradient and is modulated by moisture conditions. The use of datasets on population density or socioeconomic development do not improve model performances, which indicates that the complex interactions of human fire usage and management cannot be realistically represented by such datasets. However, the best SOFIA models outperform a highly flexible machine learning approach and the state-of-the art global process-oriented vegetation/fire model JSBACH-SPITFIRE. Our results suggest using multiple observational datasets on climate, hydrological, vegetation, and socioeconomic variables together with model-data integration approaches to guide the future development of global process-oriented vegetation/fire models and to better understand the interactions between fire and hydrological, ecological, and atmospheric Earth system components.

scholarly journals Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (18) ◽  
pp. 5053-5083
Author(s):  
Jessica L. McCarty ◽  
Juha Aalto ◽  
Ville-Veikko Paunu ◽  
Steve R. Arnold ◽  
Sabine Eckhardt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Extreme Fire

Abstract. In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70∘ N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest–steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2.5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65∘ N are larger than emissions from the anthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60∘ N, with 56 % of black carbon emissions above 65∘ N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.

Fire activity and its influence on Aerosol Optical Depth and Green-House Gases over PEEX area for the last two decades

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larisa Sogacheva ◽  
Anu-Maija Sundström ◽  
Timo H. Virtanen ◽  
Antti Arola ◽  
Tuukka Petäjä ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
Fire Activity

<p>The Pan-Eurasian Experiment Program (PEEX) is an interdisciplinary scientific program bringing together ground-based in situ and remote sensing observations, satellite measurements and modeling tools aiming to improve the understanding of land-water-atmosphere interactions, feedback mechanisms and their effects on the ecosystem, climate and society in northern Eurasia, Russia and China. In a view of the large area covering thousands of kilometres, large gaps will remain where no or little ground-based observational information will be available. The gap can partly be filled by satellite remote sensing of relevant parameters as regards atmospheric composition.</p><p>Biomass burning is a violent source of atmospheric pollutants. Fires and corresponding emissions to the atmosphere dramatically change the atmospheric composition in case of long-lasting fire events, which might cover extended areas. In the burned areas, CO2 exchange, as well as emissions of different compounds are getting to higher levels, which might contribute to climate change by changing the radiative budget through the aerosol-cloud interaction and cloud formation. In the boreal forest, after CO2, CO and CH4, the largest emission factors for individual species were formaldehyde, followed by methanol and NO2 (Simpson et al., ACP, 2011). The emitted long-life components, e.g., black carbon, might further be transported to the distant areas and measured at the surface far from the burned areas.</p><p>In the boreal forest region, fires are very common, very large and produce a lot of smoke. Boreal areas  have been burning regularly for thousands of years and is adapted to fires, which happen most often between May and October. In boreal ecosystems, future increases in air temperature may lengthen the fire season and increase the probability of fires, leading some to hypothesize a positive feedback between warming, fire activity, carbon loss, and future climate change (Kasischke et al., 2000). </p><p> During the last few decades, several burning episodes have been observed over PEEX area by satellites (as fire counts), specifically over Siberia and central Russia. The following information available from satellites will be utilized to reveal a connection between Fire activity and atmospheric composition <span>for the period 2002-2020 over the PEEX area:</span></p><ul><li>- Fire count, FRP and burned areas from MODIS</li> <li>- Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI), multi-instrument (GOME-2, OMI, TOMS) product</li> <li>- CO from MOPPIT</li> <li>- HCHO and NO2 from OMI</li> </ul><p>Monthly temperature and humidity fields from ERA5 re-analysis will be also utilized to reveal if a connection exist between climate variables and occurrence and intensity of the forest fires.</p><p>Kasischke, B. J. Stocks: Fire, Climate Change, and Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest. M. M. Cadwellet al.,Eds., Ecological Studies (Springer, New York, 2000)</p><p>Simpson, I. J., Akagi, S. K., Barletta, B., Blake, N. J., Choi, Y., Diskin, G. S., Fried, A., Fuelberg, H. E., Meinardi, S., Rowland, F. S., Vay, S. A., Weinheimer, A. J., Wennberg, P. O., Wiebring, P., Wisthaler, A., Yang, M., Yokelson, R. J., and Blake, D. R.: Boreal forest fire emissions in fresh Canadian smoke plumes: C<sub>1</sub>-C<sub>10</sub> volatile organic compounds (VOCs), CO<sub>2</sub>, CO, NO<sub>2</sub>, NO, HCN and CH<sub>3</sub>CN, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 6445–6463, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-6445-2011, 2011.</p><p> </p>

The role of atmospheric dynamics in extreme wildfire activity in northeastern Siberia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Scholten ◽  
Coumou Dim ◽  
Luo Fei ◽  
Sander Veraverbeke
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Atmospheric Dynamics ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fast Fourier Transformation ◽  
Arctic Circle ◽  
Wave Dynamics ◽  
Northeastern Siberia ◽  
Fire Activity

<p>In the summer of 2020, extreme fires have raged in northeastern Siberia, many of them within the Arctic Circle burning in ecotonal larch forest and tundra ecosystems. This unprecedented increase in fire activity within the Arctic Circle has been linked to record-high temperatures measured in the region, as well as to high lightning activity.</p><p>In mid-latitudes, the pronounced and long-lasting heatwaves of the last decade have been linked to amplified Rossby waves connected with weak atmospheric circulation. These amplified waves tend to phase-lock in preferred positions and thereby lead to more persistent summer weather. Linkages between atmospheric teleconnections and boreal wildfires exist for some regions, yet the influence of wave dynamics on arctic-boreal wildfires is unknown. We explored relationships between wave dynamics, heatwaves, and the unprecedented fire activity in Siberia in 2020 to assess whether the recent surge in arctic-boreal fires in Siberia is driven by large-scale atmospheric dynamics.</p><p>We determined wave amplitudes as phase positions by applying fast Fourier transformation on weekly averaged mid- to high-latitudinal mean meridional wind velocities at the 250 mb level from ERA5 reanalysis data. Gridded percentage area burned between 2001 and 2020 was derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Burned Area product (MCD64A1). We then quantified the importance of Rossby wave patterns on fire activity clustered by latitude in eastern Siberia.</p>

Comparison of burned area mapping products and combustion efficiency approaches for estimating GHG and particulate emissions from Italian fires

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Bacciu ◽  
Carla Scarpa ◽  
Costantino Sirca ◽  
Spano Donatella
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Consumption ◽  
Combustion Efficiency ◽  
Emission Factors ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Particulate Emissions ◽  
Management Service ◽  
Specific Chemical ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Fire Activity

<p>Vegetation fires contribute to 38% to the emission of CO<sub>2</sub> into the atmosphere, against 62% caused by the combustion of fossil fuels. Further, it could approach levels of anthropogenic carbon emissions, especially in years of extreme fire activity (e.g. 2003, 2017). According to the equation first proposed by Seiler and Crutzen (1980), fire emission estimation use information on the amount of burned biomass, the emission factors associated with each specific chemical species, the burned area, and the combustion efficiency. Still, simulating emission from forest fires is affected by several errors and uncertainties, due to the different assessment approach to characterize the various parameters involved in the equation. For example, regional assessment relied on fire-activity reports from forest services, with assumptions regarding the type of vegetation burned, the characteristics of burning, and the burned area. Improvements and new advances in remote sensing, experimental measurements of emission factors, fuel consumption models, fuel load evaluation, and spatial and temporal distribution of burning are a valuable help for predicting and quantifying accurately the source and the composition of fire emissions.</p><p>With the aim to contribute to a better estimation of biomass burning emission, in this work we compared fire emission estimations using two different types of burned area products and combustion efficiency approaches in the framework of the recently developed system for modeling fire emission in Italy (Bacciu et al., 2012). This methodology combines a fire emission model (FOFEM - First Order Fire Effect Model, Reinhardt et al., 1997) with spatial and non-spatial inputs related to fire, vegetation, and weather conditions. The perimeters and burned area of selected large fires that occurred in 2017 in Italy were obtained by the former Corpo Forestale dello Stato (actually Carabinieri C.U.F.A.A.) and by the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS). The vegetation types were derived from CORINE LAND COVER (2012). For each vegetation type, fuel loading was assigned using a combination of field observations and literature data (e.g., Mitsopoulos and Dimitrakopoulos 2007; Ascoli et al., 2019). Fuel moisture conditions, influencing the combustion efficiency, were derived from the daily Canadian Fine Fuels Moisture Code (FFMC), calculated from MARS interpolated weather data (25km x 25km). The daily FFMC was then associated with the two types of fire data with the aim of group fires in function of their relative ease of ignition and flammability of fine fuel (burning conditions, from low to extreme). For the EMS fire, it was also possible to further define fire severity and thus the percentage of combusted crown through the assessed fire damage grade.</p><p>The results showed differences in the total emissions according to the fire product and the approach to estimate the combustion efficiency. Furthermore, it seems that the difference in the evaluation of severity - and therefore in the degree of combustion of the canopy- affects more than the differences in terms of area burned. Overall, the results pointed out the crucial role of appropriate fuel, fire, and weather data and maps to attain reasonable simulations of fuel consumption and smoke emissions.</p>

scholarly journals Satellite-based assessment of climate controls on US burned area

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 7853-7892 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. C. Morton ◽  
G. J. Collatz ◽  
D. Wang ◽  
J. T. Randerson ◽  
L. Giglio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Climate Controls

Abstract. Climate regulates fire activity through the buildup and drying of fuels and the conditions for fire ignition and spread. Understanding the dynamics of contemporary climate-fire relationships at national and sub-national scales is critical to assess the likelihood of changes in future fire activity and the potential options for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we conducted the first national assessment of climate controls on US fire activity using two satellite-based estimates of monthly burned area (BA), the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED, 1997–2010) and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS, 1984–2009) BA products. For each US National Climate Assessment (NCA) region, we analyzed the relationships between monthly BA and potential evaporation (PE) derived from reanalysis climate data at 0.5° resolution. US fire activity increased over the past 25 yr, with statistically significant increases in MTBS BA for entire US and the Southeast and Southwest NCA regions. Monthly PE was strongly correlated with US fire activity, yet the climate driver of PE varied regionally. Fire season temperature and shortwave radiation were the primary controls on PE} and fire activity in the Alaska, while water deficit (precipitation – PE) was strongly correlated with fire activity in the Plains regions and Northwest US. BA and precipitation anomalies were negatively correlated in all regions, although fuel-limited ecosystems in the Southern Plains and Southwest exhibited positive correlations with longer lead times (6–12 months). Fire season PE increased from the 1980s–2000s, enhancing climate-driven fire risk in the southern and western US where PE-BA correlations were strongest. Spatial and temporal patterns of increasing fire season PE and BA during the 1990s–2000s highlight the potential sensitivity of US fire activity to climate change in coming decades. However, climate-fire relationships at the national scale are complex, based on the diversity of fire types, ecosystems, and ignition sources within each NCA region. Changes in the seasonality or magnitude of climate anomalies are therefore unlikely to result in uniform changes in US fire activity.

scholarly journals Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO<sub>2</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 435-445 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
Ryuichi Hirata ◽  
Tomoko Hasegawa ◽  
Shinichiro Fujimori ◽  
Noriko N. Ishizaki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Mitigation Policies ◽  
Pm2.5 Emissions

Abstract. In 2015, El Niño contributed to severe droughts in equatorial Asia (EA). The severe droughts enhanced fire activity in the dry season (June–November), leading to massive fire emissions of CO2 and aerosols. Based on large event attribution ensembles of the MIROC5 atmospheric global climate model, we suggest that historical anthropogenic warming increased the chances of meteorological droughts exceeding the 2015 observations in the EA area. We also investigate changes in drought in future climate simulations, in which prescribed sea surface temperature data have the same spatial patterns as the 2015 El Niño with long-term warming trends. Large probability increases of stronger droughts than the 2015 event are projected when events like the 2015 El Niño occur in the 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C warmed climate ensembles according to the Paris Agreement goals. Further drying is projected in the 3.0 ∘C ensemble according to the current mitigation policies of nations. We use observation-based empirical functions to estimate burned area, fire CO2 emissions and fine (<2.5 µm) particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions from these simulations of precipitation. There are no significant increases in the chances of burned area and CO2 and PM2.5 emissions exceeding the 2015 observations due to past anthropogenic climate change. In contrast, even if the 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C goals are achieved, there are significant increases in the burned area and CO2 and PM2.5 emissions. If global warming reaches 3.0 ∘C, as is expected from the current mitigation policies of nations, the chances of burned areas and CO2 and PM2.5 emissions exceeding the 2015 observed values become approximately 100 %, at least in the single model ensembles. We also compare changes in fire CO2 emissions due to climate change and the land-use CO2 emission scenarios of five shared socioeconomic pathways, where the effects of climate change on fire are not considered. There are two main implications. First, in a national policy context, future EA climate policy will need to consider these climate change effects regarding both mitigation and adaptation aspects. Second is the consideration of fire increases changing global CO2 emissions and mitigation strategies, which suggests that future climate change mitigation studies should consider these factors.

scholarly journals Peatland Hydrological Dynamics as A Driver of Landscape Connectivity and Fire Activity in the Boreal Plain of Canada

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thompson ◽  
Simpson ◽  
Whitman ◽  
Barber ◽  
Parisien
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Landscape Connectivity ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Boreal Peatlands ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Moderate Drought

Drought is usually the precursor to large wildfires in northwestern boreal Canada, a region with both large wildfire potential and extensive peatland cover. Fire is a contagious process, and given weather conducive to burning, wildfires may be naturally limited by the connectivity of fuels and the connectivity of landscapes such as peatlands. Boreal peatlands fragment landscapes when wet and connect them when dry. The aim of this paper is to construct a framework by which the hydrological dynamics of boreal peatlands can be incorporated into standard wildfire likelihood models, in this case the Canadian Burn-P3 model. We computed hydrologically dynamic vegetation cover for peatlands (37% of the study area) on a real landscape in the Canadian boreal plain, corresponding to varying water table levels representing wet, moderate, and severely dry fuel moisture and hydrological conditions. Despite constant atmospheric drivers of fire spread (air temperature, humidity, and wind speed) between drought scenarios, fire activity increased 6-fold in moderate drought relative to a low drought baseline; severe (1 in 40 years) drought scenarios drove fires into previously fire-restrictive environments. Fire size increased 5-fold during moderate drought conditions and a further 20%–25% during severe drought. Future climate change is projected to lead to an increase in the incidence of severe drought in boreal forests, leading to increases in burned area due to increasing fire frequency and size where peatlands are most abundant. Future climate change in regions where peatlands have historically acted as important barriers to fire spread may amplify ongoing increases in fire activity already observed in Western North American forests.

scholarly journals Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannick Le Page ◽  
Douglas Morton ◽  
Hartin Corinne ◽  
Bond-Lamberty Ben ◽  
José Miguel Cardoso Pereira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Fire Activity

Abstract. Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, common under current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

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