Detecting regimes of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation by nonlinear data decomposition

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmitry Mukhin ◽  
Abdel Hannachi
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Kernel Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
External Forcings

<p>We suggest a method for nonlinear analysis of atmospheric circulation regimes in the middle latitudes. The method is based on the kernel principal component analysis allowing to separate principal modes of dynamics entangled in data. We propose a new kernel function accounting specifics of large-scale wave patterns in the mid-latitude atmosphere. First, capabilities of the method are shown by the analysis of the 3-layer quasi-geostrophic model of the Northern hemisphere atmosphere: a statistically significant set of modes can be detected by the method from relatively short (several thousand days) time series. Next, we consider reanalysis data of wintertime geopotential height anomalies over the Northern hemisphere from 1950 to the present. The principal components obtained uncover several recurrent and persistent wave structures which are associated with different weather regimes. We find that there is a pronounced inter-annual and decadal variability in the dominance of different modes in different years. Possible climatic and external forcings which impact such variability as well as long-term predictability of anomalous weather seasons based on the obtained components are discussed.</p>

scholarly journals Annular versus Nonannular Variability of the Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (13) ◽  
pp. 3180-3190 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Castanheira ◽  
M. L. R. Liberato ◽  
L. de la Torre ◽  
H-F. Graf ◽  
A. Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Normal Modes ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Residual Variability ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
Symmetric Component ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
Highly Correlated

Abstract The annular variability of the northern winter extratropical circulation is reassessed based on reanalysis data that are dynamically filtered by normal modes. One-half of the variability of the monthly averaged barotropic zonally symmetric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere is statistically distinct from the remaining variability and is represented by its leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) alone. The daily time series of the circulation anomalies projected onto the leading EOF is highly correlated (r ≥ 0.7) with the lower-stratospheric northern annular mode (NAM) indices showing that annular variability extends from the stratosphere deep into the troposphere. However, the geopotential and wind anomalies associated with the leading principal component (PC1) of the barotropic zonally symmetric circulation are displaced northward relative to the zonal mean anomalies associated with the PC1 of the geopotential height variability at single-isobaric tropospheric levels. The regression pattern of the 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) onto the lower-stratospheric NAM also shows zonally symmetric components displaced northward with respect to those of the leading EOF of the Z500 field. A principal component analysis (PCA) of the residual variability of the Z500 field remaining after the substraction of the Z500 regressed onto the lower-stratospheric NAM index also reveals a pattern with a zonally symmetric component at midlatitudes. However, this zonally symmetric component appears as the second EOF of the residual variability and is the imprint of two independent dipoles over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Results show that a zonally symmetric component of the middle- and lower-tropospheric circulation variability exists at high latitudes. At the middle latitudes, the zonally symmetric component, if any exists, is artificially overemphasized by the PCA on single-isobaric tropospheric levels.

Analyzing regimes of mid-latitude atmosphere circulation by novel nonlinear data decomposition method

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmitry Mukhin ◽  
Abdel Hannachi
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Empirical Modeling ◽  
Kernel Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Russian Science ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Dynamical Regimes

<p>We present a new method for identifying dominant dynamical regimes underlying the observed mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. The method combines the partitioning of recurrence networks and kernel principal component analysis. It enables the detection of significant regimes of variability in addition to obtaining dynamical variables which can be used for regimes embedding. The method is applied to the analysis of geopotential height anomalies of the mid-latitude atmosphere in the Northern hemisphere for the 1981-present winter season. The identified regimes as well as the set of dynamical variables explain large-scale weather patterns, which are associated, e.g., with severe winters over Eurasia and North America. Pronounced inter-annual signatures are also found in the long-term dynamics of the regimes’ frequencies, which are shown to be closely related to the quasi-biennial oscillation of the tropical stratosphere. The method is presented, and prospects for empirical modeling of the atmosphere circulation regimes, and long-term climate predictability are discussed. The work is supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant 19-42-04121).</p>

scholarly journals Northern Hemisphere stratospheric winds in higher midlatitudes: longitudinal distribution and long-term trends

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 2203-2213 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Kozubek ◽  
P. Krizan ◽  
J. Lastovicka
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Core Structure ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
Meridional Winds ◽  
Long Term Trends

Abstract. The Brewer–Dobson circulation (mainly meridional circulation) is very important for stratospheric ozone dynamics and thus for the overall state of the stratosphere. There are some indications that the meridional circulation in the stratosphere could be longitudinally dependent, which would have an impact on the ozone distribution. Therefore, we analyse here the meridional component of the stratospheric wind at northern middle latitudes to study its longitudinal dependence. The analysis is based on the NCEP/NCAR-1 (National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research), MERRA (Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis) and ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis Interim) reanalysis data. The well-developed two-core structure of strong but opposite meridional winds, one in each hemisphere at 10 hPa at higher northern middle latitudes, and a less pronounced five-core structure at 100 hPa are identified. In the central areas of the two-core structure the meridional and zonal wind magnitudes are comparable. The two-core structure at 10 hPa is almost identical for all three different reanalysis data sets in spite of the different time periods covered. The two-core structure is not associated with tides. However, the two-core structure at the 10 hPa level is related to the Aleutian pressure high at 10 hPa. Zonal wind, temperature and the ozone mixing ratio at 10 hPa also exhibit the effect of the Aleutian high, which thus affects all parameters of the Northern Hemisphere middle stratosphere. Long-term trends in the meridional wind in the "core" areas are significant at the 99% level. Trends of meridional winds are negative during the period of ozone depletion development (1970–1995), while they are positive after the ozone trend turnaround (1996–2012). Meridional wind trends are independent of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurrence and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase. The influence of the 11-year solar cycle on stratospheric winds has been identified only during the west phase of QBO. The well-developed two-core structure in the meridional wind illustrates the limitations of application of the zonal mean concept in studying stratospheric circulation.

scholarly journals Changes to the chemical state of the northern hemisphere atmosphere during the second half of the twentieth century

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike J. Newland ◽  
Patricia Martinerie ◽  
Emmanuel Witrant ◽  
Detlev Helmig ◽  
David R. Worton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Major Influence ◽  
Secondary Products ◽  
Alkyl Nitrates ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. The NOX (NO and NO2) and HOX (OH and HO2) budgets of the atmosphere exert a major influence on atmospheric composition, controlling removal of primary pollutants and formation of a wide range of secondary products, including ozone, that can influence human health and climate. However, there remain large uncertainties in the changes to these budgets over recent decades. Due to their short atmospheric lifetimes, NOX and HOX are highly variable in space and time, and so the measurements of these species are of very limited value for examining long term, large scale changes to their budgets. Here, we take an alternative approach by examining long-term atmospheric trends of alkyl nitrates, the formation of which is dependent on the atmospheric NO / HO2 ratio. We derive long term trends in the alkyl nitrates from measurements in firn air from the NEEM site, Greenland. Their mixing ratios increased by a factor of 4–5 between the 1970s and 1990s. This was followed by a steep decline to the sampling date of 2008. Moreover, we examine how the trends in the alkyl nitrates compare to similarly derived trends in their parent alkanes (i.e. the alkanes which, when oxidised in the presence of NOX, lead to the formation of the alkyl nitrates). The ratios of the alkyl nitrates to their parent alkanes increase from around 1970 to the late 1990's consistent with large changes to the [NO] / [HO2] ratio in the northern hemisphere atmosphere during this period. These could represent historic changes to NOX sources and sinks. Alternatively, they could represent changes to concentrations of the hydroxyl radical, OH, or to the transport time of the air masses from source regions to the Arctic.

Intraseasonal to decadal variability of Rossby wave packet properties

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgios Fragkoulidis ◽  
Volkmar Wirth
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Phase Speed ◽  
Diagnostic Methods ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ongoing Work ◽  
Large Scale Flow

<p>The large-scale extratropical upper-tropospheric flow tends to organize itself into eastward-propagating Rossby wave packets (RWPs). Investigating the spatiotemporal evolution of RWPs and the underlying physical processes has been beneficial in showcasing the role of the upper-tropospheric flow in temperature and precipitation extremes. The use of recently developed diagnostics of local in space and time wave properties has provided further insight in this regard. Motivated by the above, these diagnostic methods are now being employed to investigate the intraseasonal to decadal variability of key RWP properties such as their amplitude, phase speed, and group velocity in reanalysis datasets. It is shown that these properties exhibit a distinct seasonal and interregional variability, while interesting patterns thereof emerge. Moreover, the interannual and long-term variability in these RWP properties is explored and significant decadal trends for specific regions and seasons are highlighted. Ongoing work aims at further utilizing the presented diagnostics and analyses toward an improved understanding of the extratropical large-scale flow variability from weather to climate time scales.</p>

Anthropogenic and Natural Contributions to the Lengthening of the Summer Season in the Northern Hemisphere

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (17) ◽  
pp. 6803-6819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo-Joung Park ◽  
Yeon-Hee Kim ◽  
Seung-Ki Min ◽  
Eun-Pa Lim
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Season Length ◽  
The Past ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Regional Trends ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Observed long-term variations in summer season timing and length in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents and their subregions were analyzed using temperature-based indices. The climatological mean showed coastal–inland contrast; summer starts and ends earlier inland than in coastal areas because of differences in heat capacity. Observations for the past 60 years (1953–2012) show lengthening of the summer season with earlier summer onset and delayed summer withdrawal across the NH. The summer onset advance contributed more to the observed increase in summer season length in many regions than the delay of summer withdrawal. To understand anthropogenic and natural contributions to the observed change, summer season trends from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel simulations forced with the observed external forcings [anthropogenic plus natural forcing (ALL), natural forcing only (NAT), and greenhouse gas forcing only (GHG)] were analyzed. ALL and GHG simulations were found to reproduce the overall observed global and regional lengthening trends, but NAT had negligible trends, which implies that increased greenhouse gases were the main cause of the observed changes. However, ALL runs tend to underestimate the observed trend of summer onset and overestimate that of withdrawal, the causes of which remain to be determined. Possible contributions of multidecadal variabilities, such as Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, to the observed regional trends in summer season length were also assessed. The results suggest that multidecadal variability can explain a moderate portion (about ±10%) of the observed trends in summer season length, mainly over the high latitudes.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document