Optimizing the management of complex water resources systems taking into account the long-term persistence in streamflow

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amaury Tilmant ◽  
Vahid Espanmanesh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Water Resources Systems ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Conflicting Objectives ◽  
Operating Policies ◽  
Dual Dynamic Programming

<p>The operation of multireservoir systems is a challenging decision-making problem due to (i) multiple, often conflicting, objectives (e.g. hydropower generation versus irrigated agriculture), (ii) stochastic variables (e.g. inflows, water demands, commodity prices), (iii) nonlinear relationships, (e.g. hydropower production function) and (iv) trade-offs between immediate and future consequences. Properly capturing the properties of the hydrologic processes responsible for the inflows is of paramount importance to enhance the performance of water resources systems. This becomes all the more relevant since low-frequency climate signals, which affect the hydrology in numerous regions around the globe, has increased in recent years. If traditional time series models generally fail to reproduce this regime-like behavior, so are the optimization models that are used to support multireservoir operation. Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a class of hydrological models that can accommodate both overdispersion and serial dependence in historical time series, two essential hydrological properties that must be captured when modeling a system where the climate is switching between different states (e.g., dry, normal, wet). In terms of reservoir operation, Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) is one of the few optimization techniques that can accomodate both system and hydrologic complexity. In SDDP, the hydrologic uncertainty is often captured by a multi-site periodic autoregressive (MPAR) model. However, MPAR models are unable to represent the long-term persistence of the streamflow process found in some regions, which may lead to suboptimal reservoir operating policies. We present an extension of the SDDP algorithm that can handle the long-term persistence and provide reservoir operating policies that explicitly capture regime shifts. To achieve this, the state-space vector now includes a climate variable whose transition is governed by a HMM. The Senegal River Basin (SRB), whose flow regime is characterized by multiyear dry/wet periods, is used as a case study.</p>

scholarly journals Paleo-hydrologic reconstruction of 400 years of past flows at a weekly time step for major rivers of Western Canada

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Slaughter ◽  
Saman Razavi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Flow Distribution ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Water Resources Systems ◽  
Tree Ring Data

Abstract. The assumption of stationarity in water resources no longer holds, particularly within the context of future climate change. Plausible scenarios of flows that fluctuate outside the envelope of variability of the gauging data are required to assess the robustness of water resources systems to future conditions. This study presents a novel method of generating weekly-time-step flows based on tree-ring chronology data. Specifically, this method addresses two long-standing challenges with paleo-reconstruction: (1) the typically limited predictive power of tree-ring data at the annual and sub-annual scale, and (2) the inflated short-term persistence in tree-ring time series and improper use of prewhitening. Unlike the conventional approach, this method establishes relationships between tree-ring chronologies and naturalised flow at a biennial scale to preserve persistence properties and variability of hydrological time series. Biennial flow reconstructions are further disaggregated to weekly, according to the weekly flow distribution of reference two-year instrumental periods, identified as periods with broadly similar tree-ring properties to that of every two-year paleo-period. The Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB), a major river in Western Canada, is selected as a study area, and weekly flows in its four major tributaries are extended back to the year 1600. The study shows that the reconstructed flows properly preserve the statistical properties of the reference flows, particularly, short- to long-term persistence and the structure of variability across time scales. An ensemble approach is presented to represent the uncertainty inherent in the statistical relationships and disaggregation method. The ensemble of reconstructed weekly flows are publically available for download from https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0139 (Slaughter and Razavi, 2019).

Long-term (1900-2100) Hydrometeorological and Snow Water Equivalent reconstructions in the French Southern Alps (Mercantour Natural Parc).

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thibault Mathevet ◽  
Cyril Thébault ◽  
Jérôme Mansons ◽  
Matthieu Le Lay ◽  
Audrey Valery ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Southern Alps ◽  
Snow Line ◽  
Snow Water

<p>The aim of this communication is to present a study on climate variability and change on snow water equivalent (SWE) and streamflow over the 1900-2100 period in a mediteranean and moutainuous area.  It is based on SWE and streamflow observations, past reconstructions (1900-2018) and future GIEC scenarii (up to 2100) of some snow courses and hydrological stations situated within the French Southern Alps (Mercantour Natural Parc). This has been conducted by EDF (French hydropower company) and Mercantour Natural Parc.</p><p>This issue became particularly important since a decade, especially in regions where snow variability had a large impact on water resources availability, poor snow conditions in ski resorts and artificial snow production or impacts on mountainous ecosystems (fauna and flora). As a water resources manager in French mountainuous regions, EDF developed and managed a large hydrometeorological network since 1950. A recent data rescue research allowed to digitize long term SWE manual measurements of a hundred of snow courses within the French Alps. EDF have been operating an automatic SWE sensors network, complementary to historical snow course network. Based on numerous SWE observations time-series and snow modelization (Garavaglia et al., 2017), continuous daily historical SWE time-series have been reconstructed within the 1950-2018 period. These reconstructions have been extented to 1900 using 20 CR (20<sup>th</sup> century reanalyses by NOAA) reanalyses (ANATEM method, Kuentz et al., 2015) and up to 2100 using GIEC Climate Change scenarii (+4.5 W/m² and + 8.5 W/m² hypotheses). In the scope of this study, Mercantour Natural Parc is particularly interested by snow scenarii in the future and its impacts on their local flora and fauna.</p><p>Considering observations within Durance watershed and Mercantour region, this communication focuses on: (1) long term (1900-2018) analyses of variability and trend of hydrometeorological and snow variables (total precipitation, air temperature, snow water equivalent, snow line altitude, snow season length, streamflow regimes) , (2) long term variability of snow and hydrological regime of snow dominated watersheds and (3) future trends (2020 -2100) using GIEC Climate Change scenarii.</p><p>Comparing old period (1950-1984) to recent period (1984-2018), quantitative results within these regions roughly shows an increase of air temperature by 1.2 °C, an increase of snow line height by 200m, a reduction of SWE by 200 mm/year and a reduction of snow season duration by 15 days. Characterization of the increase of snow line height and SWE reduction are particularly important at a local and watershed scale. Then, this communication focuses on impacts on long-term time scales (2050, 2100). This long term change of snow dynamics within moutainuous regions both impacts (1) water resources management, (2) snow resorts and artificial snow production developments or (3) ecosystems dynamics.Connected to the evolution of snow seasonality, the impacts on hydrological regime and some streamflow signatures allow to characterize the possible evolution of water resources in this mediteranean and moutianuous region This study allowed to provide some local quantitative scenarii.</p>

scholarly journals Modeling and analysis of collective management of water resources

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 711-720 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Tilmant ◽  
P. van der Zaag ◽  
P. Fortemps
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Integrated Water Resources Management ◽  
Collective Choice ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Water Resources Systems ◽  
Water Users ◽  
Operating Policies ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) recommends, among other things, that the management of water resources systems be carried out at the lowest appropriate level in order to increase the transparency, acceptability and efficiency of the decision-making process. Empowering water users and stakeholders transforms the decision-making process by enlarging the number of point of views that must be considered as well as the set of rules through which decisions are taken. This paper investigates the impact of different group decision-making approaches on the operating policies of a water resource. To achieve this, the water resource allocation problem is formulated as an optimization problem which seeks to maximize the aggregated satisfaction of various water users corresponding to different approaches to collective choice, namely the utilitarian and the egalitarian ones. The optimal operating policies are then used in simulation and compared. The concepts are illustrated with a multipurpose reservoir in Chile. The analysis of simulation results reveals that if this reservoir were to be managed by its water users, both approaches to collective choice would yield significantly different operating policies. The paper concludes that the transfer of management to water users must be carefully implemented if a reasonable trade-off between equity and efficiency is to be achieved.

Many-objective risk assessment framework for guiding operational decisions on multiple reservoirs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quan Dau ◽  
David Dorchies ◽  
Jean-Claude Bader
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
International Institute ◽  
Water Resources Planning ◽  
Multiple Use ◽  
Ethical Concerns ◽  
Planning And Management ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Deterministic Dynamic ◽  
Conflicting Objectives ◽  
Resources Planning

<p>Effective optimisation methods have emerged over the last few decades to deal with the management of multiple reservoirs serving multiple and often conflicting objectives. Despite the abundant literature on the subject, the practical use of these techniques in the field remains very limited because they are perceived as “black boxes” whose behaviour is difficult to understand for users and decision-makers (Pianosi et al. 2020).</p><p>Optimisation using one or more aggregated objectives can create stakeholder reluctance when they do not recognize their values and objectives in the optimization formulation, while also raising ethical concerns related to the inclusion of undesirable and/or hidden trade-offs. In contrast, an approach considering many non-aggregated objectives has the potential to bring out alternative courses of action that better reflect the diverging perspectives of stakeholders, and align better with ethical concerns (Kasprzyk et al. 2016).</p><p>To deal with this problem, we here follow the Wierzbicki's (1979) "reference objective" concept considering each single objective as a utopia point optimised separately by deterministic dynamic programming. The optimisation, taking into account given hydroclimatic conditions and a chosen set of constraints, provides yearly probabilistic upper or lower rule curves reflecting the risk of failing to achieve each of the objectives in the future (Bader 1992). In order to use these data, we have developed a graphical user interface based on an R Shiny application showing the risk probability of future failure of each objective depending on the calendar day and the current or forecasted storage state of each reservoir.</p><p>This framework is applied on the Seine catchment area in Paris, France, which includes a system of 4 large reservoirs to protect against floods and water shortages for multiple flow thresholds and multiple locations downstream from the reservoirs. Historical datasets as well as climate change projections are used to take into account the non-stationarity nature of hydroclimatic conditions. Among other applications, this example shows the utility of such a tool in order to justify the stakeholders decisions to discard minor objectives when they undermine the chances of success of major objectives in critical situations.</p><p> </p><p>References</p><p>----------</p><p>Bader, J.-C., 1992. Consignes de gestion du barrage à vocation multiple de Manantali: détermination des cotes limites à respecter dans la retenue [Multiple use management of Manantali Dam: determination of limiting storage levels]. Hydrologie Continentale 7, 3–12.</p><p>Kasprzyk, J.R., Reed, P.M., Hadka, D.M., 2016. Battling Arrow’s Paradox to Discover Robust Water Management Alternatives. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 142, 04015053. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000572</p><p>Pianosi, F., Dobson, B., Wagener, T., 2020. Use of Reservoir Operation Optimization Methods in Practice: Insights from a Survey of Water Resource Managers. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 146, 02520005. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001301</p><p>Wierzbicki, A.P., 1979. The Use of Reference Objectives in Multiobjective Optimization - Theoretical Implications and Practical Experience (No. WP-79-66). International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.</p>

scholarly journals A review of conjunctive GW-SW management by simulation–optimization tools

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shima Soleimani ◽  
Omid Bozorg-Haddad ◽  
Arezoo Boroomandnia ◽  
Hugo A. Loáiciga
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Simulation Optimization ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Optimization Methods ◽  
Conjunctive Use ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Water Resources Systems ◽  
Simulation And Optimization

Abstract The conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water (GW-SW) resources has grown worldwide. Optimal conjunctive water use can be planned by coupling hydrologic models for the simulation of water systems with optimization techniques for improving management strategies. The coupling of simulation and optimization methods constitutes an effective approach to determine sustainable management strategies for the conjunctive use of these water resources; yet, there are challenges that must be addressed. This paper reviews (1) hydrologic models applied for the simulation of GW-SW interaction in the water resources systems, (2) conventional optimization methods, and (3) published works on optimized conjunctive GW-SW use by coupling simulation and optimization methods. This paper evaluates the pros and cons of GW-SW simulation tools and their applications, thus providing criteria for selecting simulation–optimization methods for GW-SW management. In addition, an assessment of GW-SW simulation–optimization tools applied in various studies over the world creates valuable knowledge for selecting suitable simulation–optimization tools in similar case studies for sustainable water resource management under multiple scenarios.

An Agent Based Hydro Informatics Approach for the Engagement of Farmers in Irrigation Water Management in Saudi Arabia

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-64
Author(s):  
Tagelsir Mohamed Gasmelseid
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Software Agents ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Irrigation Systems ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Conflicting Objectives

The use of software agent systems and technologies to simulate water resources management scenarios and improve the engagement of stakeholders in policy making is gaining paramount importance. Such importance originates from two main concerns or change agents. Firstly, the context of water management is becoming highly complicated due to the intensity of connections with other systems, the diversity of stakeholders and the multiplicity (and sometime conflicting) objectives of decision partners. Moreover, the domain used for capitalizing on water management issues is becoming planetary (as it is the case of shared basins) rather than being local (watershed, watercourse, scheme, etc.). As a result, the concern is not limited to the optimization of the utility matrix of stakeholders but additional attention is required to incorporate many emerging issues such as the maintenance of financial sustainability, functional mainstreaming and improving engagement to promote reconciliation and change of water use behaviors. Secondly, the recent technological developments have improved the processing capacity of hardware, software functionalities and the accessibility of telecommunication platforms. Such developments have been reflected in the improvement of the capacities of decision makers to address complex problem domains. Software agents' technologies possess the qualities that make them useful for the provision of decision support in water management domains. As it is the case of irrigated agriculture, software agents' technology can be used for the design of farm surface irrigation systems, the improvement of irrigation systems management and the enhancement of the involvement of farmers in the processes of integrated water management. This paper is concerned with the use of agent based systems to facilitate the engagement of farmers in Al Ahsaa area in the management of water resources. The government of the Kingdom is adopting a demand management approach for the management of irrigation water by discouraging the cultivation of water-consuming crops such as wheat and dates. Improving the ability of farmers to analyze alternative cropping patterns significantly affects their water use behavior.

scholarly journals Sustainable Water Resources Management in an Arid Area Using a Coupled Optimization-Simulation Modeling

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 885 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siamak Farrokhzadeh ◽  
Seyed Hashemi Monfared ◽  
Gholamreza Azizyan ◽  
Ali Sardar Shahraki ◽  
Maurits Ertsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Multi Objective Optimization ◽  
Wetland Ecosystems ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Sustainable Water Resources Management ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Conflicting Demands ◽  
Conflicting Objectives

Severe water scarcity in recent years has magnified the economic, social, and environmental significance of water stress globally, making optimal planning in water resources necessary for sustainable socio-economic development. One of the regions that is most affected by this is the Sistan region and its Hamoun wetland, located in south-east Iran. Water policies are essential to sustain current basin ecosystem services, maintaining a balance between conflicting demands from agriculture and the protection of wetland ecosystems. In the present study, a multi-objective optimization model is linked with the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software to optimize water allocation decisions over multiple years. We formulate and parameterize a multi-objective optimization problem where the net economic benefit from agriculture and the supply of environmental requirements were maximized, to analyze the trade-off between different stakeholders. This problem is modeled and solved for the study area with detailed agricultural, socio-economic, and environmental data for 30 years and quantification of ecosystem services. By plotting Pareto sets, we investigate the trade-offs between the two conflicting objectives and evaluate a possible compromise. The results are analyzed by comparing purely economic versus multi-objective scenarios on the Pareto front. Finally, the disadvantages and advantages of these scenarios are also qualitatively described to help the decision process for water resources managers.

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