Potential flow regime alterations under climate change in an intermittent river system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Maria De Girolamo ◽  
Antonio Lo Porto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flow Regime ◽  
River System ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Slight Reduction ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Intermittent River

<p>The potential impact of climate change on the flow regime was analyzed for the Celone River, an intermittent river system in the Apulia Region (S_E, Italy). Rainfall and temperature recorded in the past century were analyzed. Flow regime under climate projections for the future (2030–2059) and for the recent conditions (1980–2009) were compared. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool, a hydrological model, was used to simulate daily streamflow in selected river sections.</p><p>Daily climate data used to simulate future scenarios were obtained by a combination of a global circulation model (GCM, ECHAM5) and different regional models (RACMO2; RCA; REMO). The impact on the hydrological regime was estimated as a deviation from the baseline (1980–2009) by using a number of indicators of hydrological alterations.</p><p>From 1919 to 2012, a slight reduction in total annual rainfall and a decrease of the number of rainy days was recorded, hence, an increase in extreme rainfall events. From 1954 to 2012, the minimum daily temperature in January and February increased reducing the snowfall.</p><p>Under future scenarios, an increase in mean temperature was predicted for all months between 0.5–2.4 °C and a reduction in precipitation (by 4–7%). As a consequence, the flow regime moves towards drier conditions and the divergence of the flow regime from the current conditions increases in future scenarios, especially for those reaches classified as I‐D (ie, intermittent‐dry) and E (ephemeral).</p><p>Hydrological indicators showed an extension of the dry season and an exacerbation of the extreme low flow conditions with a decrease in both high flow and low flow magnitudes for various time durations. These changes are expected to have several implications for river ecosystems that have to be considered in River Basin Management and Planning.</p>

Assessment of potential impact of climate change on streamflow: a case study of the Brahmani River basin, India

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 624-641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kumari Vandana ◽  
Adlul Islam ◽  
P. Parth Sarthi ◽  
Alok K. Sikka ◽  
Hemlata Kapil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Distributed Parameter ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of future climate change on streamflow in the Brahmani River basin, India has been assessed using a distributed parameter hydrological model Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) and multi-model ensemble climate change scenarios. The multi-model ensemble climate change scenarios were generated using the Hybrid-Delta ensemble method for A2, A1B, and B1 emission scenarios for three different future periods of the 2020s (2010–2039), 2050s (2040–2069) and 2080s (2070–2099). There is an increase in annual mean temperature in the range of 0.8–1.0, 1.5–2.0 and 2.0–3.3 °C during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Annual rainfall is projected to change in the range of −1.6–1.6, 1.6–3.1, and 4.8–8.1% during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Simulation results indicated changes in annual streamflow in the range of −2.2–2.5, 2.4–4.7, and 7.3–12.6% during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Simulation results showed an increase in high flows and reduction in low flows, but the frequency of both high and low flow increases during future periods. The results of this work will be useful in developing a water management adaptation plan in the study basin.

The impact of climate change on water provision under a low flow regime: A case study of the ecosystems services in the Francoli river basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 263 ◽  
pp. 224-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Montse Marquès ◽  
Rubab Fatima Bangash ◽  
Vikas Kumar ◽  
Richard Sharp ◽  
Marta Schuhmacher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flow Regime ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Water Provision ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow and major hydrological components of an Iranian Wadi system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nariman Mahmoodi ◽  
Paul D. Wagner ◽  
Jens Kiesel ◽  
Nicola Fohrer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change has pronounced impacts on water resources, especially in arid regions. This study aims at assessing the impacts of climate change on streamflow of the Wadi Halilrood Basin which feeds the Jazmorian wetland in southeastern Iran. To simulate streamflow and hydrological components in the future periods (2030–2059 and 2070–2099), projections for the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from 11 global-regional climate models and two bias correction methods are used as input data for a hydrologic model that represents the daily streamflow with good accuracy (NSE: 0.76, PBIAS: 4.7, KGE: 0.87). The results indicate a slight increase of streamflow in January and March, due to the higher intensity of precipitation. However, according to the predicted flow duration curves, a decrease for high and very high flow and no remarkable changes for middle, low and very low flow is found under both emission scenarios for both future periods. Compared to the simulated hydrological components for the baseline, a slight increase of evapotranspiration of around 6 mm (4%) and 2 mm (<2%) for the mid- and end of the century is estimated, respectively. Moreover, a substantial drop of water yield of around 36 mm (63%) at mid-century and 39 mm (69%) at the end of the century are projected.

scholarly journals Rainfall trend analysis using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator test in West Kalimantan

2021 ◽  
Vol 893 (1) ◽  
pp. 012006
Author(s):  
F Aditya ◽  
E Gusmayanti ◽  
J Sudrajat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
West Kalimantan ◽  
Rainfall Analysis ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Rainfall Trends ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change has been a prominent issue in the last decade. Climate change on a global scale does not necessarily have the same effect in different regions. Rainfall is a crucial weather element related to climate change. Rainfall trends analysis is an appropriate step in assessing the impact of climate change on water availability and food security. This study examines rainfall variations and changes at West Kalimantan, focusing on Mempawah and Kubu Raya from 2000-2019. The Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's Slope estimator test, which can determine rainfall variability and long-term monotonic trends, were utilized to analyze 12 rainfall stations. The findings revealed that the annual rainfall pattern prevailed in all locations. Mempawah region tends to experience a downward trend, while Kubu Raya had an upward trend. However, a significant trend (at 95% confidence level) was identified in Sungai Kunyit with a slope value of -33.20 mm/year. This trend indicates that Sungai Kunyit will become drier in the future. The results of monthly rainfall analysis showed that significant upward and downward trends were detected in eight locations. Rainfall trends indicate that climate change has occurred in this region.

Promote Nature-Based Solutions to adapt the environment to climate change – The LIFE ARTISAN project

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre-Antoine Versini ◽  
Daniel Schertzer ◽  
Mathilde Loury
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Public Space ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Relevant Alternatives ◽  
Institutional Contexts ◽  
Research And Education ◽  
The Impact

<p>Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) appear as some relevant alternatives to mitigate the consequences of climate change. For this reason, they are promoted for the implementation of the national plan for adaptation to climate change (PNACC) in France, in line with the Paris Agreement, the strategy of the European Union for adaptation to climate change and the French national strategy for biodiversity.</p><p>Nevertheless, this ambitious goal of democratizing NBS poses some institutional and technical challenges because many obstacles remain to their implementation. Overcoming these shortcomings is the objective of the LIFE integrated project called ARTISAN (Achieving Resiliency by Triggering Implementation of nature-based Solutions for climate Adaptation at a National scale). Coordinated by the French Biodiversity Office (OFB), its consortium regroups several local authorities, technical, research and education institutes.</p><p>For this purpose, ARTISAN is creating a framework promoting the implementation of NBS by improving scientific and technical knowledge about them, then by developing and disseminating relevant tools for project leaders (for the design, sizing, implementation and evaluation of ecosystem performance).</p><p>To demonstrate that NBS can respond to a diversity of climatic, ecological and institutional contexts, 10 pilot sites will be monitored in metropolitan and overseas France. The concerned issues are for example the reduction of urban heat island by the de-waterproofing of the public space, the limitation of the impact of cyclonic episodes on the urbanized coastline overseas by promoting the restoration of the mangrove, and the decrease of agricultural water stress during the low flow period by the hydromorphological restoration of wetlands. These pilot sites will serve to develop, improve and validate operational tools, methods and trainings devoted to practitioners.</p>

Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Tadashi Suetsugi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

scholarly journals Impact of Coal Resource Development on Streamflow Characteristics: Influence of Climate Variability and Climate Change

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 1161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Chiew ◽  
Guobin Fu ◽  
David Post ◽  
Yongqiang Zhang ◽  
Biao Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coal Mining ◽  
Resource Development ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Hydroclimate Variability ◽  
Coal Resource ◽  
Flow Variables ◽  
The Impact

The potential cumulative impact of coal mining and coal seam gas extraction on water resources and water-dependent assets from proposed developments in eastern Australia have been recently assessed through a Bioregional Assessment Programme. This study investigates the sensitivity of the Bioregional Assessment results to climate change and hydroclimate variability, using the Gloucester sub-region as an example. The results indicate that the impact of climate change on streamflow under medium and high future projections can be greater than the impact from coal mining development, particularly where the proposed development is small. The differences in the modelled impact of coal resource development relative to the baseline under different plausible climate futures are relatively small for the Gloucester sub-region but can be significant in regions with large proposed development. The sequencing of hydroclimate time series, particularly when the mine footprint is large, significantly influences the modelled maximum coal resource development impact. The maximum impact on volumetric and high flow variables will be higher if rainfall is high in the period when the mine footprint is largest, and vice-versa for low flow variables. The results suggest that detailed analysis of coal resource development impact should take into account climate change and hydroclimate variability.

scholarly journals Changing climate patterns risk the spread of Varroa destructor infestation of African honey bees in Tanzania

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard A. Giliba ◽  
Issa H. Mpinga ◽  
Sood A. Ndimuligo ◽  
Mathew M. Mpanda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Risk ◽  
Honey Bees ◽  
Varroa Destructor ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Pests And Diseases ◽  
Future Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Climate change creates opportune conditions that favour the spread of pests and diseases outside their known active range. Modelling climate change scenarios is oftentimes useful tool to assess the climate analogues to unveil the potential risk of spreading suitability conditions for pests and diseases and hence allows development of appropriate responses to address the impending challenge. In the current study, we modelled the impact of climate change on the distribution of Varroa destructor, a parasitic mite that attacks all life forms of honey bees and remains a significant threat to their survival and productivity of bee products in Tanzania and elsewhere. Methods The data about the presence of V. destructor were collected in eight regions of Tanzania selected in consideration of several factors including potentials for beekeeping activities, elevation (highlands vs. lowlands) and differences in climatic conditions. A total of 19 bioclimatic datasets covering the entire country were used for developing climate scenarios of mid-century 2055 and late-century 2085 for both rcp4.5 and rcp8.5. We thereafter modelled the current and future risk distribution of V. destructor using MaxEnt. Results The results indicated a model performance of AUC = 0.85, with mean diurnal range in temperature (Bio2, 43.9%), mean temperature (Bio1, 20.6%) and mean annual rainfall (Bio12, 11.7%) as the important variables. Future risk projections indicated mixed responses of the potential risk of spreads of V. destructor, exhibiting both decrease and increases in the mid-century 2055 and late-century 2085 on different sites. Overall, there is a general decline of highly suitable areas of V. destructor in mid- and late-century across all scenarios (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5). The moderately suitable areas indicated a mixed response in mid-century with decline (under rcp4.5) and increase (under rcp8.5) and consistent increase in late century. The marginally suitable areas show a decline in mid-century and increase in late-century. Our results suggest that the climate change will continue to significantly affect the distribution and risks spread of V. destructor in Tanzania. The suitability range of V. destructor will shift where highly suitable areas will be diminishing to the advantage of the honey bees’ populations, but increase of moderately suitable sites indicates an expansion to new areas. The late century projections show the increased risks due to surge in the moderate and marginal suitability which means expansion in the areas where V. destructor will operate. Conclusion The current and predicted areas of habitat suitability for V. destructor’s host provides information useful for beekeeping stakeholders in Tanzania to consider the impending risks and allow adequate interventions to address challenges facing honey bees and the beekeeping industry. We recommend further studies on understanding the severity of V. destructor in health and stability of the honey bees in Tanzania. This will provide a better picture on how the country will need to monitor and reduce the risks associated with the increase of V. destructor activities as triggered by climate change. The loss of honey bees’ colonies and its subsequent impact in bees’ products production and pollination effect have both ecological and economic implications that need to have prioritization by the stakeholders in the country to address the challenge of spreading V. destructor.

scholarly journals Exploring climate change impacts during first half of the 21st century on flow regime of the transboundary Kabul River in the Hindukush region

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1521-1538
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zia ur Rahman Hashmi ◽  
Amjad Masood ◽  
Haris Mushtaq ◽  
Syed Ahsan Ali Bukhari ◽  
Burhan Ahmad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flow Regime ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
River System ◽  
Joint Strategy ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
High Level ◽  
Flooding Events ◽  
Kabul River ◽  
Far Future

Abstract In transboundary river basins, climate change is being considered as a concern of higher degree than it is in other parts of the world. The Kabul River Basin, a sub-basin of the Indus River system shared by Pakistan and Afghanistan, is no exception. High level of sensitivity of its flow to temperature makes it imperative to analyse climate change impacts on the flow regime of this important river for efficient water resources management on both sides of the border. The snowmelt runoff model integrated with remote sensing snow cover product MODIS was selected to simulate daily discharges. Future projections were generated for two selected time slices, 2011–2030 (near future) and 2031–2050 (far future), based on output of an ensemble of four GCMs' RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Analysis shows a significant temperature increase under both scenarios in the near and far future at a high-altitude region of the basin which mostly receives snowfall that is also found increasing over time. Consequently, it causes a change in the flow regime and more frequent and heavier flooding events, thus calling for a joint strategy of the two riparian countries to mitigate the anticipated impacts in the basin for safety of people and overall prosperity.

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