Integrating Climate and Socioeconomic Pathways to Calculate the Future Cost of Catastrophes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alastair Clarke ◽  
Alexander Koch ◽  
Eric Robinson ◽  
Michelle Cipullo ◽  
Shane Latchman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Average Annual Loss ◽  
The Future ◽  
Urban Scaling ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Cost

<p>The cost of future catastrophes will depend on changes to the hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Previous work has shown how climate change could affect the financial losses from damaged buildings by altering the frequency, severity and other characteristics of the hazard, but has not shown how socioeconomic trends could affect losses by altering the total number, spatial distribution and vulnerability of buildings.</p><p>We extend and apply urban scaling theory to model the spatiotemporal evolution of exposure using population projections that are consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The exposure sets are integrated with hazard catalogues that are consistent with Representative Concentration Pathways to give five views of UK windstorm risk for the year 2100.</p><p>SSPs describe five plausible futures where socioeconomic trends have made mitigation of, or adaptation to, climate change harder or easier. For example, one SSP describes a global panacea of co-operative, sustainable development while another describes a fragmented, under-developed world heavily-reliant on fossil fuels. AIR’s present-day exposure set, representative of all insurable properties in the UK, is perturbed by the SSPs to create an ensemble of plausible exposure sets for the year 2100. This ensemble is run through the AIR Extratropical Cyclone model for Europe with four stochastic event-based catalogues that represent the present hazard and three plausible future hazards posed by 1.5°C, 3°C and 4.5°C increases in global temperature.</p><p>Previous work found that global warming of 1.5°C to 4.5°C would increase the Average Annual Loss (AAL) from UK windstorms by 11% to 25%. We find that changes in exposure alone, dictated by the SSPs, lead to a wider range of changes in AAL. Urbanisation occurs under all SSPs resulting in exposure concentrating in cities and regional-level variation in AAL. Changes in AAL will further widen when integrated with the future hazard catalogues.</p><p>The results can help governments and public bodies to decide on a strategy for future urban and rural development, and how much to invest in protective measures against catastrophes. The framework can be extended to other perils in other countries adapting to climate change.</p>

Protecting Health

Heat Advisory ◽  
2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan H. Lockwood
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Good Health ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Health Domains ◽  
Warming World

In public health terms, primary climate change prevention means reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and secondary prevention refers to adaptation to climate change. Renewable energy sources depending on the sun, wind, and water power must replace the use of fossil fuels. The IPCC has identified heat, undernutrition, and food and water-borne illnesses as the health domains at greatest risk on a warming world. These are also the domains where the greatest opportunities for the effects of mitigation and adaptation exist. Planning for the future and allocating appropriate resources are critical for success. Compare Florida, where the governor banned the term climate change and plans for the future are often aspirational, to the Netherlands where massive public works projects protect the Dutch from the sea. Education, research, and political will must be guided by evidence-based decision-making if future generations are to enjoy good health on a hospitable planet.

scholarly journals Adaptation to climate change in the insurance sector: examples from the UK, Germany and the Netherlands

2013 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 315-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Carina H. Keskitalo ◽  
Gregor Vulturius ◽  
Peter Scholten
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Insurance Sector ◽  
The Uk

scholarly journals Assessment of costs on the adaptation to climate change in Ukraine

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (4) ◽  
pp. 60-71
Author(s):  
Galyna Trypolska ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Protection ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Adaptive Nature ◽  
Regional Budgets ◽  
Promising Source ◽  
First Time

The paper focuses on the main adaptation measures financed in Ukraine at the expense of state and regional budgets region-wise during 2016-2018 within the framework of environmental activities. The source of data was "Environmental passports of the regions". The paper finds that during 2016-2018 the most funded items of expenditure were the construction and repair of sewerage, clearing of riverbeds, repair of water protection structures and wastewater treatment. A significant gap in the cost of measures of an adaptive nature between the regions is established. Expenditures in the Transcarpathian region, which most suffers from floods, were the lowest: they were 46 times lower than expenditures on adaptation measures in the Dnipropetrovsk region, which actively allocated funds for clearing riverbeds and strengthening the river banks. During 2016-2018, almost USD 110 million were proved to be spent on adaptation measures in Ukraine. The main source of funds were local budgets, in particular regional environmental funds. Green bonds are determined to become a promising source of funding for adaptation measures in Ukraine. For the first time, the amount of funds required for adaptation measures in Ukraine until 2050 has been partially estimated. It is proved that the only international funds that can provide funding for adaptation measures in Ukraine in late 2020, is the Global Environmental Facility.

scholarly journals Adapting Cultural Heritage to Climate Change Risks: Perspectives of Cultural Heritage Experts in Europe

Geosciences ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Sesana ◽  
Alexandre Gagnon ◽  
Chiara Bertolin ◽  
John Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Participatory Workshop ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
The Uk

Changes in rainfall patterns, humidity, and temperature, as well as greater exposure to severe weather events, has led to the need for adapting cultural heritage to climate change. However, there is limited research accomplished to date on the process of adaptation of cultural heritage to climate change. This paper examines the perceptions of experts involved in the management and preservation of cultural heritage on adaptation to climate change risks. For this purpose, semi-structured interviews were conducted with experts from the UK, Italy, and Norway as well as a participatory workshop with stakeholders. The results indicate that the majority of interviewees believe that adaptation of cultural heritage to climate change is possible. Opportunities for, barriers to, and requirements for adapting cultural heritage to climate change, as perceived by the interviewees, provided a better understanding of what needs to be provided and prioritized for adaptation to take place and in its strategic planning. Knowledge of management methodologies incorporating climate change impacts by the interviewees together with best practice examples in adapting cultural heritage to climate change are also reported. Finally, the interviewees identified the determinant factors for the implementation of climate change adaptation. This paper highlights the need for more research on this topic and the identification and dissemination of practical solutions and tools for the incorporation of climate change adaptation in the preservation and management of cultural heritage.

World Gas Supplies for the Future: Questions and Answers

1993 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 540-568 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Tissot ◽  
M. Valais
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Economic Viability ◽  
Critical Question ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
The Future ◽  
Questions And Answers ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Substantial Rise

The abundance of the worldwide resources of natural gas and its qualities as a “clean” fuel make it a major energy option for the future. However, the increasing distance of resources in relation to the major consuming zones should bring about a considerable development of international gas trade and also a very substantial rise in the cost of future supplies to major markets. Will these markets accept a new scale of value for natural gas in relation to other fossil fuels in order to ensure the economic viability of the formidable investments required in the coming decades is the most critical question of the gas industry, among many other technical, economic and political issues.

scholarly journals Asset management using a hybrid backcasting/forecasting approach

Facilities ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (11/12) ◽  
pp. 701-715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Jones ◽  
Api Desai ◽  
Mark Mulville ◽  
Aled Jones
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Asset Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Alternative Pathways ◽  
Future State ◽  
The Future

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to facilities and built asset management adaptation planning to climate change based on a hybrid backcasting/forecasting model. Backcasting envisions a future state and examines alternative “pathways of approach” by looking backwards from the future state to the present day. Each pathway is examined in turn to identify interventions required for that pathway to achieve the future state. Each pathway is reviewed using forecasting tools and the most appropriate is selected. This paper describes the application of this approach to the integration of climate change adaptation plans into facilities and built asset management. Design/methodology/approach – The researchers worked with various stakeholders as part of a participatory research team to identify climate change adaptations that may be required to ensure the continued performance of a new educational building over its life cycle. The team identified 2020, 2040 and 2080 year end-goals and assessed alternative pathways of approach. The most appropriate pathways were integrated into the facilities and built asset management plan. Findings – The paper outlines a conceptual framework for formulating long term facilities and built asset management strategies to address adaptation to climate change. Research limitations/implications – The conceptual framework is validated by a single research case study, and further examples are needed to ensure validity of the approach in different facilities management contexts. Originality/value – This is the first paper to explore backcasting principles as part of facilities and built asset management planning.

scholarly journals Caring for the future: Climate change and intergenerational responsibility in China and the UK

Geoforum ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 105 ◽  
pp. 158-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristina Diprose ◽  
Chen Liu ◽  
Gill Valentine ◽  
Robert M. Vanderbeck ◽  
Katie McQuaid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Uk

scholarly journals Water-Centric Nexus Approach for the Agriculture and Forest Sectors in Response to Climate Change in the Korean Peninsula

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1657
Author(s):  
Chul-Hee Lim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Spatial Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Agricultural Water ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
The Future

Climate change has inherent multidisciplinary characteristics, and predicting the future of a single field of work has a limit. Therefore, this study proposes a water-centric nexus approach for the agriculture and forest sectors for improving the response to climate change in the Korean Peninsula. Two spatial models, i.e., Environmental Policy Integrated Climate and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs, were used to assess the extent of changes in agricultural water demand, forest water supply, and their balance at the watershed level in the current and future climatic conditions. Climate changed has increased the agricultural water demand and forest water supply significantly in all future scenarios and periods. Comparing the results with RCP8.5 2070s and the baseline, the agricultural water demand and forest water supply increased by 35% and 28%, respectively. Water balance assessment at the main watershed level in the Korean Peninsula revealed that although most scenarios of the future water supply increases offset the demand growth, a risk to water balance exists in case of a low forest ratio or smaller watershed. For instance, the western plains, which are the granary regions of South and North Korea, indicate a higher risk than other areas. These results show that the land-use balance can be an essential factor in a water-centric adaptation to climate change. Ultimately, the water-centric nexus approach can make synergies by overcoming increasing water demands attributable to climate change.

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