Groundwater modelling for time periods of up to hundreds of thousands of years.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerrit H. de Rooij ◽  
Thomas Mueller
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Coastal Plain ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Hydraulic Head ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Time Step

<p>Occasionally, there is an interest in groundwater flows over many millennia. The input parameter requirement of numerical groundwater flow models and their calculation times limit their usefulness for such studies.</p><p>Analytical models require considerable simplifications of the properties and geometry of aquifers and of the forcings. On the other hand, they do not appear to have an inherent limitation on the duration of the simulated period. The simplest models have explicit solutions, meaning that the hydraulic head at a given time and location can be calculated directly, without the need to incrementally iterate through the entire preceding time period like their numerical counterparts.</p><p>We developed an analytical solution for a simple aquifer geometry: a strip aquifer between a no flow boundary and a body of surface water with a prescribed water level. This simplicity permitted flexible forcings: The non-uniform initial hydraulic head in the aquifer is arbitrary and the surface water level can vary arbitrarily with time. Aquifer recharge must be uniform in space but can also vary arbitrarily with time.</p><p>We also developed a modification that verifies after prescribed and constant time intervals if the hydraulic head is such that the land surface is covered with water. This excess water then infiltrates in areas where the groundwater level is below the surface and the remainder is discharged into the surface water. The hydraulic head across the aquifer is modified accordingly and used as the initial condition for the next time interval. This modification models the development of a river network during dry periods. The increased flexibility of the model comes at the price of the need to go through the entire simulation period one time step at a time. For very long time records, these intervals will typically be one year.</p><p>Given the uncertainty of the aquifer parameters and the forcings, the models are expected to be used in a stochastic framework. We are therefore working on a shell that accepts multiple values for each parameter as well as multiple scenarios of surface water levels and groundwater recharge rates, along with an estimate of their probabilities. The shell will generate all possible resulting combinations, the number of which can easily exceed 10000, then runs the model for each combination, and computes statistics of the average hydraulic head and the aquifer discharge into the surface water at user-specified times.</p><p>A case study will tell if this endeavor is viable. We will model the aquifer below the mountain range north of Salalah in Oman, which separates the desert of the Arabian Peninsula from the coastal plain at its southern shore. Rainfall estimates from the isotopic composition of stalactites in the area indicate distinct dry and wet periods in the past 300 000 years. In combination with estimated sea level fluctuations over that period, this provides an interesting combination of forcings. We examine the dynamics of the total amount of water stored in the aquifer, and of the outflow of water from the aquifer into the coastal plain.</p>

Groundwater modelling for time periods of up to 105 years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerrit H. de Rooij ◽  
Thomas Mueller
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Coastal Plain ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Hydraulic Head ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Time Step

<p>Occasionally, there is an interest in groundwater flows over many millennia. The input parameter requirement of numerical groundwater flow models and their calculation times limit their usefulness for such studies.</p><p>Analytical models require considerable simplifications of the properties and geometry of aquifers and of the forcings. On the other hand, they do not appear to have an inherent limitation on the duration of the simulated period. The simplest models have explicit solutions, meaning that the hydraulic head at a given time and location can be calculated directly, without the need to incrementally iterate through the entire preceding time period like their numerical counterparts.</p><p>We developed an analytical solution for a simple aquifer geometry: a strip aquifer between a no flow boundary and a body of surface water with a prescribed water level. This simplicity permitted flexible forcings: The non-uniform initial hydraulic head in the aquifer is arbitrary and the surface water level can vary arbitrarily with time. Aquifer recharge must be uniform in space but can also vary arbitrarily with time.</p><p>We also developed a modification that verifies after prescribed and constant time intervals if the hydraulic head is such that the land surface is covered with water. This excess water then infiltrates in areas where the groundwater level is below the surface and the remainder is discharged into the surface water. The hydraulic head across the aquifer is modified accordingly and used as the initial condition for the next time interval. This modification models the development of a river network during dry periods. The increased flexibility of the model comes at the price of the need to go through the entire simulation period one time step at a time. For very long time records, these intervals will typically be one year.</p><p>Given the uncertainty of the aquifer parameters and the forcings, the models are expected to be used in a stochastic framework. We are therefore working on a shell that accepts multiple values for each parameter as well as multiple scenarios of surface water levels and groundwater recharge rates, along with an estimate of their probabilities. The shell will generate all possible resulting combinations, the number of which can easily exceed 10000, then runs the model for each combination, and computes statistics of the average hydraulic head and the aquifer discharge into the surface water at user-specified times.</p><p>A case study will tell if this endeavor is viable. We will model the aquifer below the mountain range north of Salalah in Oman, which separates the desert of the Arabian Peninsula from the coastal plain at its southern shore. Rainfall estimates from the isotopic composition of stalactites in the area indicate distinct dry and wet periods in the past 300 000 years. In combination with estimated sea level fluctuations over that period, this provides an interesting combination of forcings. We examine the dynamics of the total amount of water stored in the aquifer, and of the outflow of water from the aquifer into the coastal plain.</p>

scholarly journals Spatial distribution of water level impact to back-barrier bays

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo L. Aretxabaleta ◽  
Neil K. Ganju ◽  
Zafer Defne ◽  
Richard P. Signell
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Barnegat Bay ◽  
Sea Level Fluctuations ◽  
Flooding Hazard ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Inlet Geometry ◽  
Spatial Estimates

Abstract. Water level in semi-enclosed bays, landward of barrier islands, is mainly driven by offshore sea level fluctuations that are modulated by bay geometry and bathymetry, causing spatial variability in the ensuing response (transfer). Local wind setup can have a secondary role that depends on wind speed, fetch, and relative orientation of the wind direction and the bay. Inlet geometry and bathymetry primarily regulate the magnitude of the transfer between open ocean and bay. Tides and short-period offshore oscillations are more damped in the bays than longer-lasting offshore fluctuations, such as storm surge and sea level rise. We compare observed and modeled water levels at stations in a mid-Atlantic bay (Barnegat Bay) with offshore water level proxies. Observed water levels in Barnegat Bay are compared and combined with model results from the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system to evaluate the spatial structure of the water level transfer. Analytical models based on the dimensional characteristics of the bay are used to combine the observed data and the numerical model results in a physically consistent approach. Model water level transfers match observed values at locations inside the Bay in the storm frequency band (transfers ranging from 70–100 %) and tidal frequencies (10–55 %). The contribution of frequency-dependent local setup caused by wind acting along the bay is also considered. The approach provides transfer estimates for locations inside the Bay where observations were not available resulting in a complete spatial characterization. The approach allows for the study of the Bay response to alternative forcing scenarios (landscape changes, future storms, and rising sea level). Detailed spatial estimates of water level transfer can inform decisions on inlet management and contribute to the assessment of current and future flooding hazard in back-barrier bays and along mainland shorelines.

scholarly journals Water-level attenuation in broad-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanasios T. Vafeidis ◽  
Mark Schuerch ◽  
Claudia Wolff ◽  
Tom Spencer ◽  
Jan L. Merkens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Characteristics ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Flood Exposure

Abstract. This study explores the uncertainty introduced in global assessments of coastal flood exposure and risk when not accounting for water level attenuation due to land-surface characteristics. We implement a range of plausible water-level attenuation values for characteristic land-cover classes in the flood module of the Dynamic and Integrated Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) modelling framework and assess the sensitivity of flood exposure and flood risk indicators to differences in attenuation rates. Results show a reduction of up to 47 % in area exposure and even larger reductions in population exposure and expected flood damages when considering water level attenuation. The reductions vary by country, reflecting the differences in the physical characteristics of the floodplain as well as in the spatial distribution of people and assets in coastal regions. We find that uncertainties related to not accounting for water attenuation in global assessments of flood risk are of similar magnitude to the uncertainties related to the amount of SLR expected over the 21st century. Despite using simplified assumptions to account for the process of water level attenuation, which depends on numerous factors and their complex interactions, our results strongly suggest that an improved understanding and representation of the temporal and spatial variation of water levels across floodplains is essential for future impact modelling.

Influence of morphometric parameters and meteorological conditions on ephemeral pool hydrology in the Canadian Shield forest 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marjolaine Roux ◽  
Marie Larocque ◽  
Philippe Nolet ◽  
Sylvain Gagné
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Canadian Shield ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Forest Biodiversity ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Ephemeral Pools ◽  
Water Level Variations ◽  
Dry Out

<p>Ephemeral pools are geographically isolated wetlands commonly found in temperate forests of northeastern North America. These wetlands are usually hydrologically isolated from the surface water network but in some conditions can be connected to local groundwater flow. They fill at maximal capacity following spring snowmelt and dry out during summer. They contribute to forest biodiversity by providing breeding habitats for amphibians during their spring and early summer period of hydrological activity. However, ephemeral pools are poorly understood and rarely studied because of their small dimensions and temporary hydrology. This work presents the final results of a five-year study aimed to acquire new knowledge on ephemeral pool hydrology to go beyond the anecdotical pool and to understand the conditions and processes that driving their hydrology. A large number of pools (39) located in the Canadian Shield forest were instrumented to monitor hourly water level variations in the pool and in the neighboring and underlying fractured bedrock aquifer. They were also described in extensive details for their geomorphological features and water levels over a period from one to five years (April 2016 to July 2020). The first rather surprising result from this work is that, although the pools are all located in bedrock depressions, they cover a wide range of morphologies. Their maximum sizes vary from 29 to 1866 m<sup>2</sup> and their maximal volumes vary from 4 to 654 m<sup>3</sup>. Their maximum water depths are also highly contrasted, ranging from 0.14 m to 2.03 m. The pool depressions are overlain by mineral sediments (silt to fine sand with occurrences of coarse sand and gravel) of contrasted thicknesses (0 m to 1.70 m). An organic matter layer of highly varying thickness (0.12 m to 1.24 m) was observed at all sites above the mineral sediments. Despite these varied morphological conditions, all the pools have similar hydrological patterns throughout the year and these patterns are highly resilient to meteorological conditions. They dry out between the end of May and the end of July, rapid temporary refilling during important summer rainfall events, and partially refilling in autumn following more frequent rainfall events and lower evapotranspiration. The results show that surface water levels are maintained when the underlying sediments are saturated. Otherwise, the ephemeral pools lose water by infiltration to the underlying aquifer. Water level variations within the pools are positively and significantly correlated with net precipitation (P – PET). Hydroperiods vary between 28 days (2020) and 86 days (2017), reflecting the year-to-year meteorological variability. The mean hydroperiod is significantly correlated to spring rainfall (April to June), but also to the volume of water stored in the pool, and to the pool surface area. This study provides a unique and original dataset that contribute to better understand the hydrodynamics and resilience to anthropogenic (forestry) and natural (climate change) impacts of a wetland type that is rarely studied but provide crucial habitats for forest biodiversity.</p>

Changes in hydrologic conditions in the Dixie Valley and Fairview Valley areas, Nevada, after the earthquake of December 16, 1954

1957 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 387-396
Author(s):  
C. P. Zones
Keyword(s):  
Ground Water ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Temporary Increase ◽  
Valley Fill ◽  
Dixie Valley ◽  
Main Fault ◽  
Hydrologic Conditions ◽  
Total Discharge

abstract The earthquake of December 16, 1954, affected hydrologic conditions in the Dixie Valley and Fairview Valley areas, Nevada. In Dixie Valley the rate of flow of water from wells was temporarily increased and water flowed for more than a month from several wells that had not flowed before. Water levels in wells were higher after the earthquake, but the trend of water levels since the earthquake has varied locally. There is no evidence that ground-water temperatures were affected. The flow of Mud Springs, which is on the main fault on the west side of Dixie Valley, increased substantially immediately after the earthquake, but since has decreased to essentially its pre-earthquake rate. The water level in Fairview Valley was about 4 feet higher after the earthquake. In East Gate Valley and at West Gate, ground-water levels were lower after the earthquake. In June, 1956, the water level in East Gate Valley was 34 feet lower than the pre-earthquake level. At West Gate the water level was about 9 feet lower. In Stingaree Valley the water level began to rise after an initial decline and reached a peak about 11 feet higher than the pre-earthquake level. Possible causes for the rise in ground-water levels in Dixie and Fairview Valleys include tilting of the confined and semiconfined aquifers in the valleys, compaction of the sediments of the valley fill, and increased upward leakage of ground water. It is possible that opening of new fractures and widening of pre-existing fractures in the bedrock between East Gate, Cowkick, and Stingaree valleys has accelerated the rate of movement of ground water between those valleys. The temporary increase in the flow of water from Mud Springs may be due to the opening of fractures in the fault zone along which the water is rising, or to a possible lowering of the land surface at the springs with a resulting increase in artesian head at the spring orifices. It is thought that any increase in the total discharge of ground water in the Dixie Valley and Fairview Valley areas is temporary because the increased discharge is probably from ground-water storage.

Adaptive forecast of multi-month lake level elevations

1994 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 778-788 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saad Bennis ◽  
Gabriel J. Assaf
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Lake Erie ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Kalman Predictor

The early and precise prediction of the water levels in lakes is a major concern for public authorities. Such predictions describe the evolution of the water levels and are essential for appropriate flood control measures. In this paper, a new ARMAX-type model is developed to predict, months in advance, the monthly fluctuations of the water level of Lake Erie. The predictive variables used in the model are the past monthly water levels of Lakes Erie, Superior, and Michigan–Huron along with the estimated response times between water flow entries and exits. Two scenarios are compared. The first scenario is based on the ordinary least squares (OLS) technique in order to identify the parameters of the ARMAX-type model, to filter measurement and model noises, using the ARMAX Kalman predictor (AKP), and to optimize predictions. In this scenario, the model parameters remain unchanged throughout the simulation. The second scenario is based on the mutually interactive state parameter (MISP) technique in order to readjust the parameters of the model at each time step and to filter measurement and modelling noises through the Kalman predictor. In this scenario, the parameters of the model change with time. The analysis shows that the MISP–AKP framework has a slightly higher Nash coefficient than the OLS–AKP framework for the first month. In subsequent months, however, the quality of the predictions based on the OLS–AKP technique improves significantly. This observation also applies to the persistence and extrapolation coefficients as well as to the sample autocorrelation functions for the residuals of the Lake Erie water level forecast. It was therefore decided to apply the MISP–AKP technique to obtain the first prediction of the Lake Erie level, and the OLS–AKP technique to compute subsequent predictions. Key words: adaptive, forecast, Kalman's filter, lake levels, MISP algorithm, Great Lakes.

scholarly journals Groundwater–surface water relations in regulated lowland catchments; hydrological and hydrochemical effects of a major change in surface water level management

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joachim Rozemeijer ◽  
Janneke Klein ◽  
Dimmie Hendriks ◽  
Wiebe Borren ◽  
Maarten Ouboter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Water Exchange ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Pumping Stations ◽  
Level Regime ◽  
Solute Fluxes ◽  
Water Level Management

Abstract. In lowland deltas with intensive land use such as The Netherlands, surface water levels are tightly controlled by inlet of diverted river water during dry periods and discharge via large-scale pumping stations during wet periods. The conventional water level regime in these polder catchments is either a fixed water level year-round or an unnatural regime with a lower winter level and a higher summer level in order to optimize hydrological conditions for agricultural land use. The objective of this study was to assess the hydrological and hydrochemical effects of changing the water level management from a conventional fixed water level regime to a flexible, more natural regime with low levels in summer and high levels in winter between predefined minimum and maximum levels. Ten study catchments were hydrologically isolated and equipped with controlled inlet and outlet weirs or pumping stations. The water level management was converted into a flexible regime. We used water and solute balance modeling for catchment-scale assessments of changes in water and solute fluxes. Our model results show relevant changes in the water exchange fluxes between the polder catchment and the regional water system and between the groundwater, surface water, and field surface storage domains within the catchment. Compared to the reference water level regime, the flexible water level regime water balance scenario showed increased surface water residence times, reduced inlet and outlet fluxes, reduced groundwater-surface water exchange, and in some catchments increased overland flow. The solute balance results show a general reduction of chloride concentrations and a general increase in N-tot concentrations. The total phosphorus (P-tot) and sulfate (SO4) concentration responses varied and depended on catchment-specific characteristics. For our study catchments, our analyses provided a quantification of the water flux changes after converting towards flexible water level management. Regarding the water quality effects, this study identified the risks of increased overland flow in former agricultural fields with nutrient enriched top soils and of increased seepage of deep groundwater which can deliver extra nutrients to surface water. At a global scale, catchments in low-lying and subsiding deltas are increasingly being managed in a similar way as the Dutch polders. Applying our water and solute balance approach to these areas may prevent unexpected consequences of the implemented water level regimes.

GRACE a witness to the Recovery of the Tigris-Euphrates Hydrologic System

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Sultan ◽  
Karem Abdelmohsen ◽  
Himanshu Save
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Global Precipitation Climatology Project ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Dry Period ◽  
The Past ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
Precipitation Record ◽  
The World ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>Global warming is producing climatic changes across the world that affect in major ways the livelihood of major sectors of the world’s population. Over the past decade or two, an increase in the frequency and intensity of specific climatic phenomena (e.g., hurricanes, wet or dry periods, etc.) has been reported from many parts of the globe and is believed to be climate change-related. Over the past few years, the largest and most intense precipitation events were recorded over the Tigris and Euphrates watershed (TEW), a heavily engineered watershed (> 60 main dams) that is shared by Turkey, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. Analysis of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation record over the past 40 year (1979-present) across the TEW revealed a prolonged dry period (2002- to 2017; Average Annual Precipitation [AAP]: 240 km<sup>3</sup>), followed by wet years (2018 to 2020; AAP: 425 km<sup>3</sup>). The recent extensive precipitation events during the wet period are reflected in GRACE and GRACE-FO data. Throughout the dry period there was a total decline in GRACE<sub>TWS</sub> of 212 km<sup>3</sup> (13.3 km<sup>3</sup>/yr) followed by an increase of 246 km<sup>3</sup> (82 km<sup>3</sup>/yr) during the wet period.  In other words, in the past 2.5 years, the TEW more than recovered its losses during the previous 15 years. This recovery was enabled in part by the impoundment of surface water behind the many dams in the riparian countries and by infiltration of precipitation that recharged the TEW aquifers. Using radar altimetry we observe an increase in surface water levels by 8 m in Lake Ataturk, 13 m in Lake Karakaya, 1.5 m in Lake Van in Turkey, 5 m in Lake Assad in Syria, and 16 m in Lake Tharthar, and 24 m in Lake Mosul in Iraq.  These translate to a volume increase of 21.7 km<sup>3</sup> in Turkey, 3.5 km<sup>3</sup> in Syria, and 34 km<sup>3</sup> in Iraq during the wet period. Using GRACE data and outputs of land surface models, we estimate that groundwater storage GRACE<sub>TWS</sub> declined at a rate of -7 km<sup>3</sup>/yr during the dry period and increased at a rate of 60 km<sup>3</sup>/yr during the wet years.</p>

Lake Mead and Hoover Dam monitoring in Nevada and Arizona states, USA using InSAR

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehdi Darvishi ◽  
Georgia Destouni ◽  
Fernando Jaramillo
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Ground Deformation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Lake Mead ◽  
Water Level Changes ◽  
Hoover Dam ◽  
The Impact

<p>Man-made reservoirs and lakes are key elements in the terrestrial water system. The increased concern about the impact of anthropogenic interventions on and the dynamics of these water resources has given rise to various approaches for representing human-water interactions in land surface models. Synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) has become a powerful geodetic tool for this purpose, by evidencing changes of ground and water surfaces across time and space. In this research, the Lake Mead and associated Hoover Dam are studied using Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) technique. Lake Mead is the largest reservoir in the United States, in terms of water capacity, supplies water and hydropower for millions of people in Las Vegas, Los Angeles and southwestern part of the USA. In recent years, rising temperature, increasing evaporation and decreasing precipitation have decreased water levels substantially, and probably modified its surrounding groundwater and surface as well.</p><p>This study aims to identify a hydrology-induced ground deformation around the lake Mead and a probable Hoover dam movement displacement. For the reservoir, we used the SBAS technique using 138 SAR data, including ERS1/2, Envisat, ALOS PALSAR and Sentinel-1, covering a time-spam between 1995 and 2019. For the analysis on the dam, we used the SBAS technique from 2014 to 2019 with descending and ascending modes of Sentinel-1A/B imageries. We found two main deformation patterns around the lake associated with the water level changes. Firstly, ERS and Sentinel-1 data evidenced a ground deformation that manifested itself as as a subsidence pattern in 1995 that has gradually changed into an uplift up to 2019. Secondly, the correlation trend between the deformation and water level changes has changed from negative to positive, with a transition point around March 2008. A possible interpretation for this is that the ground has initially reacted to the water fluctuations in the reservoir before March 2008 but after no longer plays a dominant role in the deformation occurring around the lake. The findings will help us to have a better understanding over the changes happened around the lake due to the water level changes and provide the valuable information for more effective management and maintenance of hydraulic structures and facilities near by the lake and water control in the future.</p>

scholarly journals Water-level attenuation in global-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 973-984 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanasios T. Vafeidis ◽  
Mark Schuerch ◽  
Claudia Wolff ◽  
Tom Spencer ◽  
Jan L. Merkens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Characteristics ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Flood Exposure

Abstract. This study explores the uncertainty introduced in global assessments of coastal flood exposure and risk when not accounting for water-level attenuation due to land-surface characteristics. We implement a range of plausible water-level attenuation values for characteristic land-cover classes in the flood module of the Dynamic and Integrated Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) modelling framework and assess the sensitivity of flood exposure and flood risk indicators to differences in attenuation rates. Results show a reduction of up to 44 % in area exposure and even larger reductions in population exposure and expected flood damages when considering water-level attenuation. The reductions vary by country, reflecting the differences in the physical characteristics of the floodplain as well as in the spatial distribution of people and assets in coastal regions. We find that uncertainties related to not accounting for water attenuation in global assessments of flood risk are of similar magnitude to the uncertainties related to the amount of sea-level rise expected over the 21st century. Despite using simplified assumptions to account for the process of water-level attenuation, which depends on numerous factors and their complex interactions, our results strongly suggest that an improved understanding and representation of the temporal and spatial variation of water levels across floodplains is essential for future impact modelling.

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