Pedestrian Tsunami Evacuation Time Maps for Southern Coast of Bodrum Peninsula, Turkey

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Büşra Çelikbaş ◽  
Duygu Tufekci Enginar ◽  
Gozde Guney Dogan ◽  
Mehmet Lutfi Suzen ◽  
Cagil Kolat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Coast ◽  
Night Time ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Pedestrian Evacuation ◽  
Cost Distance ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
Tsunami Run Up

<p>Turkey suffered from devastating earthquakes and faced with a considerable number of tsunamis in its past. Although, tsunamis occurred in Turkey are not catastrophic as the ones in Pacific Ocean, they may still cause substantial damage in highly populated and/or touristic coastal areas. On July 21, 2017 at 22.31 UTC, a strong earthquake in the Gulf of Gokova (Mediterranean Sea) with a magnitude (Mw) of 6.6 (KOERI) was recorded. The earthquake caused a tsunami that affected the southern coast of Bodrum, Turkey and the northern parts of Kos island, Greece. The largest tsunami run-up was about 1.9 m and observed at Gumbet Bay, Bodrum (Dogan et al., 2019). Fortunately, there were no causalities as tsunami occurred at night time when there were few people on the coast, despite summer season. However, if the same event had occurred during daytime, its impact to the coastal localities would be much higher and it would cause panic among more people.</p><p>After the 2017 Bodrum-Kos tsunami, numerical simulations based on critical worst-case tsunami scenarios are performed with NAMI DANCE numerical model. According to the simulation results, a seismic scenario based on 1956-Amorgos earthquake and a combined scenario of Gokova fault and North Datca landslide scenario which is a possible submarine landslide assumed to be triggered by the seismic mechanism of Gokova scenario, give the maximum inundation distances and flow depth values at Southern coast of Bodrum Peninsula mainly in Central Bodrum town, Gumbet Bay, Bitez Bay, Yahsi Bay and Akyarlar-Karaincir-Aspat Bays where most of the settlements and touristic facilities are located.</p><p>In this study, evacuation walk time maps are prepared for the coastal settlements at Southern Coastline of Bodrum Peninsula by using Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst Tool (PEAT) developed by Jones et al. (2014) based on the selected critical scenarios above mentioned. PEAT is a least-cost-distance (LCD) evacuation model that estimates evacuation times throughout hazard zone based on elevation, land cover, walking speed and direction of movement (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). The required data are gathered from international open source databases and data provided by Bodrum Municipality. The resultant pedestrian evacuation maps show time in minutes for pedestrian who aims to reach safety zone from shortest route. According to the maps, longest walk times to the safety are calculated to be 8 minutes for Central Bodrum, 3 minutes for Gumbet Bay, 4 minutes for Bitez Bay, 6 minutes for Yahsi Bay and 5 minutes for Akyarlar-Karaincir-Aspat Bays. The pedestrian evacuation times are also tested by onsite measurements. The results are compared and presented by discussions. The evacuation maps provide a base for emergency managers, planners and local decision makers during the planning of evacuation routes and preparation of emergency response plans.</p><p>Acknowledgements: This study is partly supported by Turkey Tsunami Last Mile Project Analyses JRC/IPR/2018/E.1/0013/NC with contract number 936314-IPR-2018.</p><p>Keywords: Tsunami evacuation, Least cost distance model, Pedestrian evacuation, Walk time maps</p>

scholarly journals A SIMPLE RUN-UP CALCULATION OF TSUNAMI KRAKATAU 1883 FOR THE EVALUATION OF NCICD SEAWALL DESIGN

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-66
Author(s):  
Eduardo Meyrianso Simanjuntak ◽  
Juventus Welly Radianta Ginting ◽  
Ida Ayu Irawati Diah Ratna Putra
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Development ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Initial Condition ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
National Capital ◽  
1D Model ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Tsunami Run Up ◽  
Good Agreement

                NCICD (National Capital Integrated Coastal Development) Seawall is designed mainly to prevent coastal flooding due to sea level rise and land subsidence in North Jakarta. However, the seawall is not designed to countermeasure a tsunami impact. The purpose of this research is to calculate tsunami impact in term of run-up in five strategic points such as Pelabuhan Muara Angke, Pelabuhan Nizam Zachman, Pantai Ancol, Pelabuhan Tanjung Priok dan Pantai Marunda. In this research, the seawall is evaluated for the worst-case tsunami scenario within the order of Tsunami Krakatau 1883. The source of tsunami is the initial condition from Maeno and Imamura (2011). The propagation from source to coastal area is conducted using SWASH model. SWASH 2D model shows a good agreement with observation data. Compared to Maeno and Imamura’s model, the numerical model shows a better agreement. The verified model is then extracted and the time series is used as an input for the 1D model to calculate the tsunami run-up. The model result shows that Tanjung Priok and Pantai Muranda are the most vulnerable point with tsunami run-up about 4 m. However, the current designed seawall with 4.8 m height is still sufficient to deal with this impact.

scholarly journals NEAR-FIELD TSUNAMI HAZARD MAP PADANG, WEST SUMATRA: UTILIZING HIGH RESOLUTION GEOSPATIAL DATA AND RESEASONABLE SOURCE SCENARIOS

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (32) ◽  
pp. 26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torsten Schlurmann ◽  
Widjo Kongko ◽  
Nils Goseberg ◽  
Danny Hilman Natawidjaja ◽  
Kerry Sieh
Keyword(s):  
Near Field ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Tsunami Propagation ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
Western Shore ◽  
Run Up ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
Tsunami Run Up ◽  
The City

Near-field tsunami propagation both in shallow water environments and bore-like wave propagation on land are conducted in this study to obtain fundamental knowledge on the tsunami hazard potential in the city of Padang, Western Sumatra, Republic of Indonesia. As the region proves a huge seismic moment deficit which has progressively accumulated since the last recorded major earthquakes in 1797 and 1833, this investigation focuses on most reasonable seismic sources and possibly triggered nearshore tsunamis in order to develop upgraded disaster mitigations programs in this densely-populated urban agglomeration located on the western shore of Sumatra Island. Observations from continuous Global Positioning Satellite (cGPS) systems and supplementary coral growth studies confirm a much greater probability of occurrence that a major earthquake and subsequent tsunami are likely to strike the region in the near future. Newly surveyed and processed sets of geodata have been collected and used to progress most plausible rupture scenarios to approximate the extent and magnitudes of a further earthquake. Based upon this novel understanding, the present analysis applies two hydronumerical codes to simulate most probable tsunami run-up and subsequent inundations in the city of Padang in very fine resolution. Run-up heights and flow-depths are determined stemming from these most plausible rupture scenarios. Evaluation of outcome and performance of both numerical tools regarding impacts of surge flow and bore-like wave fronts encountering the coast and inundating the city are thoroughly carried out. Results are discussed not only for further scientific purposes, i.e. benchmark tests, but also to disseminate main findings to responsible authorities in Padang with the objective to distribute the most probable dataset of plausible tsunami inundations as well as to address valuable insights and knowledge for effective counter measures, i.e. evacuation routes and shelter building. Following evacuation simulations based on rational assumptions and simplifications reveal a most alerting result as about 260.000 people are living in the highly exposed potential tsunami inundation area in the city of Padang of which more than 90.000 people will need more than 30 min. to evacuate to safe areas.

scholarly journals Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Büşra Çelikbaş ◽  
Duygu Tufekci-Enginar ◽  
Gozde Guney Dogan ◽  
Cagil Kolat ◽  
Marzia Santini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Evacuation Time ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
Pedestrian Evacuation ◽  
Cost Distance ◽  
Land Use Types ◽  
Time Calculation

Abstract Historical records with recent events reveal that tsunamis are threatening the western coast of Turkey due to intensely active seismicity of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The most recent tsunami events in the region (30 October 2020 Izmir-Samos and 20 July 2017 Bodrum-Kos) restated that the cities located near the Eastern Mediterranean and connected seas should consider tsunami events in their disaster mitigation plans. Bodrum is one of the most critical coastal districts, vulnerable to marine hazards with popular hotels, numerous coastal facilities, long and famous beaches, cultural, historical and touristic places. Tsunami evacuation planning is required for Bodrum district to mitigate the damage caused by destructive tsunami waves inundating on land. In this study, the geospatial distribution of pedestrian evacuation time is calculated based on selected credible worst-case scenarios. A widely used anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) model is applied via the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst Tool (PEAT) to calculate the required time for a pedestrian to evacuate the region under tsunami threat based on the selected scenarios. The model includes landscape properties that affect the walking pace of pedestrians during an evacuation, such as elevation, slope, land cover, and land use types (beach, road, bushes, water bodies, any barriers). The resultant pedestrian evacuation time maps show that the maximum time needed for a pedestrian is 8, 6, 5, 4, 3 minutes for highly populated coastal settlements of Bodrum, which are Central Bodrum, Yahsi, Akyarlar-Karaincir-Aspat Bays, Bitez, and Gumbet Bays, respectively.

scholarly journals A MAP OF VULNERABILITY TSUNAMI AND PLAN EVACUATION IN COASTAL VILLAGE OF PARANGTRITIS SUB-DISTRICT KRETEK DISTRICT BANTUL DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Gentur Handoyo ◽  
Agus A.D. Suryo Putro ◽  
Petrus Subardjo
Keyword(s):  
Tsunami Source ◽  
Eurasian Plate ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
Australian Plate ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
Tsunami Run Up ◽  
Evacuation Route ◽  
Runup Height ◽  
The Village

<p align="center"><strong><em>ABSTRACT</em></strong></p><p><em>The tsunami often hitthe southern coast of Java several times, where Parangtritis located in that area. This is due to the meeting of Indo-Australian plate with the Eurasian plate in the south of Java that results in a major tectonic tsunami source. Tsunami waves from this region takes 50 to 100 minutes to reach the beach. Considering the short span of time to self-rescue</em><em>,</em><em> than its necessary to concieve a map of vulnerability to the tsunami region to plan evacuation routes and </em><em>tsunami temporary </em><em>evacuation place (TES) tsunami incoastal village of Parangtritis. The material used as an object to study in this research is the vulnerability of the tsunami, tsunami runoff based on the runup height, the proposed evacuation routes and </em><em>tsunami temporary </em><em>evacuation place (TES) as. The result</em><em>,</em><em>village </em><em>in </em><em>Parangtritis</em><em> is a</em><em> tsunami prone areas with vast percentage of the tsunami-prone areas at 66.45%. When the </em><em>tsunami run up reach </em><em>16m the affected area </em><em>was </em><em>788.07 Ha. There are three proposed evacuation route through the Parangtritis</em><em> roads</em><em>, Depok roads and Depok-Parangtriti</em><em>s road</em><em>s. There are 12 proposed temporary evacuation place which spread in the village Parangtritis. </em><em></em></p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>:<em> </em><em>Inundation</em><em>, Plate, Runup</em><em></em></p>

scholarly journals ANALISA RESIKO PEMBANGUNAN JALAN TOL NUSA DUA-NGURAH RAI-TANJUNG BENOA TERHADAP TSUNAMI

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Edwin Hidayat
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Coastal Area ◽  
Structural Damage ◽  
Building Materials ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Coastal Vulnerability ◽  
Toll Road ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
Tsunami Run Up

The construction of Nusa Dua – Ngurah Rai – Benoa Toll Road in coastal area which has vulnerability of tsunami so for measure the level of vulnerability use the Building TsunamiVulnerability (BTV) from Omira et al (2009), Tsunami Matrix from Sengaji and Nababan (2009),and Coastal Vulnerability Indeks (CVI) by Kumar et al (2010). The result of BTV is 30%, this value included in the class risk D1 which has meaning slight no structural damage. Then with the result showed the value is 4 and include in the class risk 4 which the meaning is high risk. Lastly,measuring with CVI model the result is 16,53 this included in the class risk moderate. We had different results, it is because the parameter and the coefficient value were calculated also different. Furthermore, the parameters tsunami run-up and the type of building materials are parameters which need to be most consider, these parameters are the most dominant factor. It can be concluded that the Nusa Dua - Ngurah Rai - Benoa toll road has vulnerability to Tsunami.Thus, we must preparing the mitigation or adaptation plan, such as, evacuation routes plan, if forece majeur happened.

scholarly journals Shoreline Changes along Northern Ibaraki Coast after the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1399
Author(s):  
Quang Nguyen Hao ◽  
Satoshi Takewaka
Keyword(s):  
Near Infrared ◽  
Thermal Emission ◽  
Sandy Beaches ◽  
Great East Japan Earthquake ◽  
Shoreline Changes ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Tsunami Run Up ◽  
Sentinel 2 ◽  
Infrared Radiometer

In this study, we analyze the influence of the Great East Japan Earthquake, which occurred on 11 March 2011, on the shoreline of the northern Ibaraki Coast. After the earthquake, the area experienced subsidence of approximately 0.4 m. Shoreline changes at eight sandy beaches along the coast are estimated using various satellite images, including the ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer), ALOS AVNIR-2 (Advanced Land Observing Satellite, Advanced Visible and Near-infrared Radiometer type 2), and Sentinel-2 (a multispectral sensor). Before the earthquake (for the period March 2001–January 2011), even though fluctuations in the shoreline position were observed, shorelines were quite stable, with the averaged change rates in the range of ±1.5 m/year. The shoreline suddenly retreated due to the earthquake by 20–40 m. Generally, the amount of retreat shows a strong correlation with the amount of land subsidence caused by the earthquake, and a moderate correlation with tsunami run-up height. The ground started to uplift gradually after the sudden subsidence, and shoreline positions advanced accordingly. The recovery speed of the beaches varied from +2.6 m/year to +6.6 m/year, depending on the beach conditions.

scholarly journals NEAR-FIELD TSUNAMI FORECASTING BASED ON A TSUNAMI RUN-UP RESPONSE FUNCTION

2020 ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Juh-Whan Lee ◽  
Jennifer L. Irish ◽  
Robert Weiss
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Tsunami Forecast ◽  
Earthquake Fault ◽  
Tsunami Forecasting ◽  
Fault Parameters ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Tsunami Run Up

Since near-field-generated tsunamis can arrive within a few minutes to coastal communities and cause immense damage to life and property, tsunami forecasting systems should provide not only accurate but also rapid tsunami run-up estimates. For this reason, most of the tsunami forecasting systems rely on pre-computed databases, which can forecast tsunamis rapidly by selecting the most closely matched scenario from the databases. However, earthquakes not included in the database can occur, and the resulting error in the tsunami forecast may be large for these earthquakes. In this study, we present a new method that can forecast near-field tsunami run-up estimates for any combination of earthquake fault parameters on a real topography in near real-time, hereafter called the Tsunami Run-up Response Function (TRRF).Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/tw1D29dDxmY

scholarly journals THE EXTENT OF AGRICULTURAL LAND DAMAGE IN VARIOUS TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHT SCENARIOS: DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND MITIGATION

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W4 ◽  
pp. 51-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Antoni ◽  
R. A. Bantan ◽  
H. M. Taki ◽  
W. Anurogo ◽  
M. Z. Lubis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Numerical Data ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Large Power ◽  
Aster Image ◽  
Run Up

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> The southern coastal areas of Java are highly vulnerable areas of earthquake hazard because they located 200&amp;thinsp;km from the southern Java subduction zone. This zone is an active seismicity area, resulting in many tectonic earthquakes caused by collisions and shift between the plates. This shift when it occurs under the sea surface with a large power intensity can lead to a tsunami. This research conducted to identify the extent of agricultural land (AL) damaged by the tsunami for disaster risk management and mitigation. Numerical modelling was performed to determine the run-up height of the tsunami through numerical data. This model was designed using the worst-case scenario. The tsunami inundation model analysed from the coming wave (run-up) with a height of 30&amp;thinsp;m. This model used scenarios of tsunami run-up height in a coastline, coarse coefficient and slope. The data extracted using remote sensing (RS) data was the slope obtained from the ASTER image GDEM data, the agricultural land productivity data obtained using NDVI vegetation index transformation and field data on productivity, and tsunami hazard analysis with various altitude scenarios using run-up model impact on existing AL conditions. The elevation-data was obtained from the 15&amp;thinsp;m ASTER image data (GDEM) that was reclassified into a slope class map. The risk of destruction of AL based on wave height extracted by using RS data generated rice risk loss index of AL of 190.5071&amp;thinsp;tons for a height of 1&amp;thinsp;m, 1851.522&amp;thinsp;tons for a height of 5&amp;thinsp;m, 7402.71&amp;thinsp;tons for a height of 10&amp;thinsp;m, 10776.47&amp;thinsp;tons to a height of 15&amp;thinsp;m, 11823.9&amp;thinsp;tons for height 20&amp;thinsp;m, and 11824.27&amp;thinsp;tons to a height of 30&amp;thinsp;m.</p>

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