A typology of compound weather and climate events

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakob Zscheischler ◽  
Olivia Martius ◽  
Seth Westra ◽  
Emanuele Bevacqua ◽  
Colin Raymond ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Compound Event ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Compound Events ◽  
Climate Events ◽  
Analytical Approaches

<p>Weather- and climate-related extreme events such as droughts, heatwaves and storms arise from interactions between complex sets of physical processes across multiple spatial and temporal scales, often overwhelming the capacity of natural and/or human systems to cope. In many cases, the greatest impacts arise through the ‘compounding’ effect of weather and climate-related drivers and/or hazards, where the scale of the impacts can be much greater than if any of the drivers or hazards occur in isolation; for instance, when a heavy precipitation falls on an already saturated soil causing a devastating flood. Compounding in this context refers to the amplification of an impact due to the occurrence of multiple drivers and/or hazards either because multiple hazards occur at the same time, previous climate conditions or weather events have increased a system’s vulnerability to a successive event, or spatially concurrent hazards lead to a regionally or globally integrated impact. More generally, compound weather and climate events refer to a combination of multiple climate drivers and/or hazards that contributes to societal or environmental risk.</p><p>Although many climate-related disasters are caused by compound events, our ability to understand, analyse and project these events and interactions between their drivers is still in its infancy. Here we review the current state of knowledge on compound events and propose a typology to synthesize the available literature and guide future research. We organize the highly diverse event types broadly along four main themes, namely preconditioned, multivariate, temporally compounding, and spatially compounding events. We highlight promising analytical approaches tailored to the different event types, which will aid future research and pave the way to a coherent framework for compound event analysis. We further illustrate how human-induced climate change affects different aspects of compound events, such as their frequency and intensity through variations in the mean, variability, and the dependence between their climatic drivers. Finally, we discuss the emergence of new types of events that may become highly relevant in a warmer climate.</p>

scholarly journals Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina N. Ridder ◽  
Andy J. Pitman ◽  
Seth Westra ◽  
Anna Ukkola ◽  
Hong X. Do ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Multiple Hazards ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Spatial Estimates ◽  
Compound Events ◽  
Climate Events

AbstractCompound events (CEs) are weather and climate events that result from multiple hazards or drivers with the potential to cause severe socio-economic impacts. Compared with isolated hazards, the multiple hazards/drivers associated with CEs can lead to higher economic losses and death tolls. Here, we provide the first analysis of multiple multivariate CEs potentially causing high-impact floods, droughts, and fires. Using observations and reanalysis data during 1980–2014, we analyse 27 hazard pairs and provide the first spatial estimates of their occurrences on the global scale. We identify hotspots of multivariate CEs including many socio-economically important regions such as North America, Russia and western Europe. We analyse the relative importance of different multivariate CEs in six continental regions to highlight CEs posing the highest risk. Our results provide initial guidance to assess the regional risk of CE events and an observationally-based dataset to aid evaluation of climate models for simulating multivariate CEs.

scholarly journals Space–time dependence of compound hot–dry events in the United States: assessment using a multi-site multi-variable weather generator

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 621-634
Author(s):  
Manuela I. Brunner ◽  
Eric Gilleland ◽  
Andrew W. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Spatial Extent ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Compound Event ◽  
Compound Events ◽  
Variable Weather

Abstract. Compound hot and dry events can lead to severe impacts whose severity may depend on their timescale and spatial extent. Despite their potential importance, the climatological characteristics of these joint events have received little attention regardless of growing interest in climate change impacts on compound events. Here, we ask how event timescale relates to (1) spatial patterns of compound hot–dry events in the United States, (2) the spatial extent of compound hot–dry events, and (3) the importance of temperature and precipitation as drivers of compound events. To study such rare spatial and multivariate events, we introduce a multi-site multi-variable weather generator (PRSim.weather), which enables generation of a large number of spatial multivariate hot–dry events. We show that the stochastic model realistically simulates distributional and temporal autocorrelation characteristics of temperature and precipitation at single sites, dependencies between the two variables, spatial correlation patterns, and spatial heat and meteorological drought indicators and their co-occurrence probabilities. The results of our compound event analysis demonstrate that (1) the northwestern and southeastern United States are most susceptible to compound hot–dry events independent of timescale, and susceptibility decreases with increasing timescale; (2) the spatial extent and timescale of compound events are strongly related to sub-seasonal events (1–3 months) showing the largest spatial extents; and (3) the importance of temperature and precipitation as drivers of compound events varies with timescale, with temperature being most important at short and precipitation at seasonal timescales. We conclude that timescale is an important factor to be considered in compound event assessments and suggest that climate change impact assessments should consider several timescales instead of a single timescale when looking at future changes in compound event characteristics. The largest future changes may be expected for short compound events because of their strong relation to temperature.

scholarly journals Rossby Waves in Astrophysics

2021 ◽  
Vol 217 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T. V. Zaqarashvili ◽  
M. Albekioni ◽  
J. L. Ballester ◽  
Y. Bekki ◽  
L. Biancofiore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Magnetic Activity ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Rotating Stars ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Physical Role ◽  
Astrophysical Objects ◽  
Exoplanetary Atmospheres ◽  
Rapidly Rotating Stars

AbstractRossby waves are a pervasive feature of the large-scale motions of the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans. These waves (also known as planetary waves and r-modes) also play an important role in the large-scale dynamics of different astrophysical objects such as the solar atmosphere and interior, astrophysical discs, rapidly rotating stars, planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres. This paper provides a review of theoretical and observational aspects of Rossby waves on different spatial and temporal scales in various astrophysical settings. The physical role played by Rossby-type waves and associated instabilities is discussed in the context of solar and stellar magnetic activity, angular momentum transport in astrophysical discs, planet formation, and other astrophysical processes. Possible directions of future research in theoretical and observational aspects of astrophysical Rossby waves are outlined.

scholarly journals Introduction to the special issue: Compound weather and climate events

2021 ◽  
pp. 100381
Author(s):  
Jakob Zscheischler ◽  
Jana Sillmann ◽  
Lisa Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Special Issue ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Climate Events

scholarly journals The movement ecology of seagrasses

2014 ◽  
Vol 281 (1795) ◽  
pp. 20140878 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathryn McMahon ◽  
Kor-jent van Dijk ◽  
Leonardo Ruiz-Montoya ◽  
Gary A. Kendrick ◽  
Siegfried L. Krauss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Clonal Growth ◽  
Movement Ecology ◽  
Future Research ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Life History Stages ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
Time Movement

A movement ecology framework is applied to enhance our understanding of the causes, mechanisms and consequences of movement in seagrasses: marine, clonal, flowering plants. Four life-history stages of seagrasses can move: pollen, sexual propagules, vegetative fragments and the spread of individuals through clonal growth. Movement occurs on the water surface, in the water column, on or in the sediment, via animal vectors and through spreading clones. A capacity for long-distance dispersal and demographic connectivity over multiple timeframes is the novel feature of the movement ecology of seagrasses with significant evolutionary and ecological consequences. The space–time movement footprint of different life-history stages varies. For example, the distance moved by reproductive propagules and vegetative expansion via clonal growth is similar, but the timescales range exponentially, from hours to months or centuries to millennia, respectively. Consequently, environmental factors and key traits that interact to influence movement also operate on vastly different spatial and temporal scales. Six key future research areas have been identified.

Plan for the development of specialized climate forecasting in NEACC

2021 ◽  
pp. 101-111
Author(s):  
S.V. Emelina ◽  
◽  
V.M. Khan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
The North ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
North Eurasia

The possibility of developing specialized seasonal forecasting within the framework of the North Eurasia Climate Centre is discussed. The purpose of these forecasts is to access the impacts of significant large-scale anomalies of meteorological elements on various economic sectors for the timely informing of government services and private businesses to select optimal strategies for planning preventive measures. A brief overview of the groups of climatic risks in the context of the impacts on the socio-economic sphere is given according to the Russian and foreign bibliographic sources. Examples of the activities of some Regional Climate Centers that produce forecast information with an assessment of possible impacts of weather and climate conditions at seasonal scales on various human activities are given. Keywords: climate services, regional climate forums, weather and climate risks, North Eurasia Climate Centre

The potential environmental risks associated with the development of rare earth element production in Canada

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
XIANGBO YIN ◽  
Christine Martineau ◽  
Isabelle Demers ◽  
Nathan Basiliko ◽  
Nicole J. Fenton
Keyword(s):  
Rare Earth ◽  
Rare Earth Element ◽  
Earth Element ◽  
Permanent Magnets ◽  
Indigenous Communities ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Environmental Risks ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Ecological Health ◽  
Climate Conditions

The development of rare earth element (REE) production in Canada could generate significant economic benefits, but also poses serious potential risks to the environment. Rare earth elements have been widely used in modern life and industries, and even are indispensable in some crucial advanced technologies (e.g. permanent magnets). Increasing demand and the context of current US-China trade tensions provide a commercial economic development opportunity for Canada, which has rich resources of REEs, to develop its own sector. However, environmental and health issues caused by REE production are challenges Canada has to face, given that significant environmental impacts have been reported elsewhere (e.g. China). Little literature is available on the potential environmental risks associated with the development of REE production in Canada. It is important to know what environmental issues, particularly those generated by REEs themselves, may happen in Canada in the future. Therefore, three major aspects are evaluated and summarized from multidisciplinary perspectives in this paper: 1) a general conceptual model of the transport of REEs as a group in the environment is established; 2) toxicity levels, biochemical mechanisms, and physiological effects of REEs on different organisms are reviewed, and case-studies from existing REE mining areas are briefly highlighted; and 3) considering specific environmental condition and risk factors, environmental risks Canada may face in future REE developments are identified and discussed. This review concludes with a macro-identification of potential environmental risks associated with the development of REE production in Canada considering both human and ecological health. We note that ingestion, inhalation and dermal exposure for workers and surrounding residents (including potentially indigenous communities), and sub-arctic/arctic climate conditions could increase the risks to human and ecological health in future REE production development in Canada. Finally, future research directions are proposed that could be applied to both Canadian and other geographical contexts.

scholarly journals Time-to-event analysis for sports injury research part 2: time-varying outcomes

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmus Oestergaard Nielsen ◽  
Michael Lejbach Bertelsen ◽  
Daniel Ramskov ◽  
Merete Møller ◽  
Adam Hulme ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sports Injuries ◽  
Sports Injury ◽  
Training Load ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Time To Event ◽  
Injury Research ◽  
Stratified Analysis

BackgroundTime-to-event modelling is underutilised in sports injury research. Still, sports injury researchers have been encouraged to consider time-to-event analyses as a powerful alternative to other statistical methods. Therefore, it is important to shed light on statistical approaches suitable for analysing training load related key-questions within the sports injury domain.ContentIn the present article, we illuminate: (i) the possibilities of including time-varying outcomes in time-to-event analyses, (ii) how to deal with a situation where different types of sports injuries are included in the analyses (ie, competing risks), and (iii) how to deal with the situation where multiple subsequent injuries occur in the same athlete.ConclusionTime-to-event analyses can handle time-varying outcomes, competing risk and multiple subsequent injuries. Although powerful, time-to-event has important requirements: researchers are encouraged to carefully consider prior to any data collection that five injuries per exposure state or transition is needed to avoid conducting statistical analyses on time-to-event data leading to biased results. This requirement becomes particularly difficult to accommodate when a stratified analysis is required as the number of variables increases exponentially for each additional strata included. In future sports injury research, we need stratified analyses if the target of our research is to respond to the question: ‘how much change in training load is too much before injury is sustained, among athletes with different characteristics?’ Responding to this question using multiple time-varying exposures (and outcomes) requires millions of injuries. This should not be a barrier for future research, but collaborations across borders to collecting the amount of data needed seems to be an important step forward.

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