Impact of climate change on biome distribution and productivity of the tropical ecosystems under RCP scenarios in South Asia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dushyant Kumar ◽  
Mirjam Pfeiffer ◽  
Camille Gaillard ◽  
Liam Langan ◽  
Carola Martens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Canopy Cover ◽  
Tree Height ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Regional Strategies

<p>South Asia is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change and provides a home to approximately 1.7 billion people. South Asian vegetation is essential for ecosystem services, biodiversity and carbon storage in the region. Vegetation distribution and biome niches are likely to be severely altered by future climate change and rising atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration. Assessing how ecosystems will respond to these changes is of vital importance. We used the aDGVM2 to simulate vegetation patterns of South Asia under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We found good agreement between observed and simulated biomass, height and potential vegetation maps. </p><p>Model results show that large areas are susceptible to biome shift by the end of the 21st century. Woody encroachment is predicted in open savanna regions which are at high risk of transitioning into forest. We simulated vegetation under both scenarios with fixed CO<sub>2</sub> concentration and found decreased tree dominance and biomass. Simulations under elevated CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations predicted an increase in biomass, canopy cover, tree height and decrease in evapotranspiration. Changes in above ground biomass and canopy cover trigger biome shifts toward trees dominated the system. C3 vegetation is not saturated at current CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations as the model simulated strong CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization effect which will increase further with the rising CO<sub>2</sub>. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the biome projections, the geographic patterns of biomes are generally consistent across the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results provide potential future trajectories of the response of South Asian vegetation to the climate change. The results will help to understand the regional climate-vegetation interaction and to develop regional strategies for biodiversity conservation to cope with climate change. </p>

scholarly journals Climate change and elevated CO<sub>2</sub> favor forest over savanna under different future scenarios in South Asia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dushyant Kumar ◽  
Mirjam Pfeiffer ◽  
Camille Gaillard ◽  
Liam Langan ◽  
Simon Scheiter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Canopy Cover ◽  
Evergreen Forest ◽  
Ecosystem Change ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Co2 Fertilization

Abstract. South Asian vegetation provides essential ecosystem services to the region and its 1.7 billion inhabitants that are closely linked to its land-use forms and carbon storage potential. Yet, biodiversity is threatened by climate and land-use change. Understanding and assessing how ecosystems respond to simultaneous increases in atmospheric CO2 and future climate change is of vital importance to avoid undesired ecosystem change. A failure to react to increasing CO2 and climate change will likely have severe consequences for biodiversity and humankind. Here, we used the aDGVM2 to simulate vegetation dynamics in South Asia under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and we explored how the presence or absence of CO2 fertilization influences vegetation responses to climate change. Simulated vegetation under both RCPs without CO2 fertilization effects showed a decrease in tree dominance and biomass, whereas simulations with CO2 fertilization showed an increase in biomass, canopy cover, and tree height and a decrease in biome-specific evapotranspiration by the end of the 21st century. The model predicted changes in above ground biomass and canopy cover that trigger biome transition towards tree-dominated systems. We found that savanna regions are at high risk of woody encroachment and transitioning into forest. We also found transitions of deciduous forest to evergreen forest in the mountain regions. C3 photosynthesis dependent vegetation was not saturated at current CO2 concentrations and the model simulated a strong CO2 fertilization effect with the rising CO2. Hence, vegetation in the region will likely remain a carbon sink. Projections showed that the bioclimatic envelopes of biomes need adjustments to account for shifts caused by climate change and eCO2. The results of our study help to understand the regional climate-vegetation interactions and can support the development of regional strategies to preserve ecosystem services and biodiversity under elevated CO2 and climate change.

scholarly journals Climate change and elevated CO<sub>2</sub> favor forest over savanna under different future scenarios in South Asia

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 2957-2979
Author(s):  
Dushyant Kumar ◽  
Mirjam Pfeiffer ◽  
Camille Gaillard ◽  
Liam Langan ◽  
Simon Scheiter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Elevated Co2 ◽  
Canopy Cover ◽  
Evergreen Forest ◽  
Ecosystem Change ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Co2 Fertilization ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

Abstract. South Asian vegetation provides essential ecosystem services to the 1.7 billion inhabitants living in the region. However, biodiversity and ecosystem services are threatened by climate and land-use change. Understanding and assessing how ecosystems respond to simultaneous increases in atmospheric CO2 and future climate change is of vital importance to avoid undesired ecosystem change. Failed reaction to increasing CO2 and climate change will likely have severe consequences for biodiversity and humankind. Here, we used the adaptive dynamic global vegetation model version 2 (aDGVM2) to simulate vegetation dynamics in South Asia under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and we explored how the presence or absence of CO2 fertilization influences vegetation responses to climate change. Simulated vegetation under both representative concentration pathways (RCPs) without CO2 fertilization effects showed a decrease in tree dominance and biomass, whereas simulations with CO2 fertilization showed an increase in biomass, canopy cover, and tree height and a decrease in biome-specific evapotranspiration by the end of the 21st century. The predicted changes in aboveground biomass and canopy cover triggered transition towards tree-dominated biomes. We found that savanna regions are at high risk of woody encroachment and transitioning into forest. We also found transitions of deciduous forest to evergreen forest in the mountain regions. Vegetation types using C3 photosynthetic pathway were not saturated at current CO2 concentrations, and the model simulated a strong CO2 fertilization effect with the rising CO2. Hence, vegetation in the region has the potential to remain a carbon sink. Projections showed that the bioclimatic envelopes of biomes need adjustments to account for shifts caused by climate change and elevated CO2. The results of our study help to understand the regional climate–vegetation interactions and can support the development of regional strategies to preserve ecosystem services and biodiversity under elevated CO2 and climate change.

scholarly journals Climate change, regulatory policies and regional cooperation in South Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Habib Zafarullah ◽  
Ahmed Shafiqul Huque
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Well Being ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regulatory Policies ◽  
Asian Region ◽  
South Asian Region

Purpose With climate change and environmental degradation being major issues in the world today, it is imperative for governments within a regional setting to collaborate on initiatives, harmonize their policies and develop strategies to counter threats. In South Asia, several attempts have been made to create a common framework for action in implementing synchronized policies. However, both political and technical deterrents have thwarted moves to accommodate priorities and interests of collaborating states. The purpose of this paper is to assess these issues and existing policies/strategies in selected South Asian countries and evaluate integrated plans of action based on collaborative partnerships. Design/methodology/approach Using a broad exploratory and interpretive approach, this paper evaluates how harmonization of environmental principles and synergies among countries can help reduce the effect of climate change and environmental hazards. Based on a review of ideas and concepts as well as both primary and secondary sources, including official records, legislation, inter-state and regional agreements, evaluation reports, impact studies (social, economic and ecological), and commentaries, it highlights several initiatives and processes geared to creating environmental protection standards and practices for the South Asian region. Findings Climate change has resulted in devastating impacts on people. It contributed to the proliferation of climate refugees and high incidence of poverty in South Asia. The region faces both political and technical obstacles in developing a sustainable approach to combat climate change. This is exacerbated by non-availability of information as well as reluctance to acknowledge the problem by key actors. The best strategy will be to integrate policies and regulations in the various countries of the region to develop strategic plans. The approach of prevention and protection should replace the existing emphasis on relief and rehabilitation. Originality/value The paper provides a critical overview of the climatic and environmental problems encountered in the South Asian region and provides pointers to resolving shared problems through the use of policy instruments for regulating the problems within the gamut of regional environmental governance. It attempts to identify solutions to offset regulatory and institutional barriers in achieving preferred results by emphasizing the need for redesigning regulatory structures and policy approaches for ecological well-being.

scholarly journals An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 2959-2970
Author(s):  
Maialen Iturbide ◽  
José M. Gutiérrez ◽  
Lincoln M. Alves ◽  
Joaquín Bedia ◽  
Ruth Cerezo-Mota ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Scatter Plots ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. Several sets of reference regions have been used in the literature for the regional synthesis of observed and modelled climate and climate change information. A popular example is the series of reference regions used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Adaptation (SREX). The SREX regions were slightly modified for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC and used for reporting subcontinental observed and projected changes over a reduced number (33) of climatologically consistent regions encompassing a representative number of grid boxes. These regions are intended to allow analysis of atmospheric data over broad land or ocean regions and have been used as the basis for several popular spatially aggregated datasets, such as the Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitation in IPCC Regions for CMIP5 dataset. We present an updated version of the reference regions for the analysis of new observed and simulated datasets (including CMIP6) which offer an opportunity for refinement due to the higher atmospheric model resolution. As a result, the number of land and ocean regions is increased to 46 and 15, respectively, better representing consistent regional climate features. The paper describes the rationale for the definition of the new regions and analyses their homogeneity. The regions are defined as polygons and are provided as coordinates and a shapefile together with companion R and Python notebooks to illustrate their use in practical problems (e.g. calculating regional averages). We also describe the generation of a new dataset with monthly temperature and precipitation, spatially aggregated in the new regions, currently for CMIP5 and CMIP6, to be extended to other datasets in the future (including observations). The use of these reference regions, dataset and code is illustrated through a worked example using scatter plots to offer guidance on the likely range of future climate change at the scale of the reference regions. The regions, datasets and code (R and Python notebooks) are freely available at the ATLAS GitHub repository: https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS (last access: 24 August 2020), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998463 (Iturbide et al., 2020).

scholarly journals Projected Changes of Precipitation IDF Curves for Short Duration under Climate Change in Central Vietnam

Hydrology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Tien Thanh ◽  
Luca Dutto Aldo Remo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Central Vietnam ◽  
Idf Curves ◽  
Projected Changes

In future years, extreme weather events are expected to frequently increase due to climate change, especially in the combination of climate change and events of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. This pays special attention to the construction of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves at a tempo-spatial scale of sub-daily and sub-grid under a context of climate change. The reason for this is that IDF curves represent essential means to study effects on the performance of drainage systems, damps, dikes and reservoirs. Therefore, the objective of this study is to present an approach to construct future IDF curves with high temporo-spatial resolutions under climate change in central Vietnam, using the case of VuGia-ThuBon. The climate data of historical and future from a regional climate model RegCM4 forced by three global models MPI-ESM-MR, IPSL-CM5A-LR and ICHEC-EC-EARTH are used to re-grid the resolution of 10 km × 10 km grid spacing from 25 km × 25 km on the base of bilinear interpolation. A bias correction method is then applied to the finest resolution of a hydrostatic climate model for an ensemble of simulations. Furthermore, the IDF curves for short durations of precipitation are constructed for the historical climate and future climates under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on terms of correlation factors. The major findings show that the projected precipitation changes are expected to significantly increase by about 10 to 30% under the scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The projected changes of a maximum of 1-, 2-, and 3-days precipitation are expected to increase by about 30–300 mm/day. More importantly, for all return periods (i.e., 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 years), IDF curves completely constructed for short durations of precipitation at sub-daily show an increase in intensities for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

THE SCIENCE UNDERLYING THE ISSUE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION

2001 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 689
Author(s):  
C.D. Mitchell ◽  
G.I. Pearman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration

The prospect of global-scale changes in climate resulting from changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has produced a complex set of public and private- sector responses. This paper reviews several elements of this issue that are likely to be most important to industry.Scientific research continues to provide evidence to suggest that global climate will change significantly over the coming decades due to increases in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Nonetheless, there exists a debate over the difference between observations of temperature retrieved from satellite and temperature measurements taken from the surface. Recent research undertaken to inform the debate is discussed, with the conclusion that there are real differences in trend between the surface and the lower atmosphere that can be explained in physical terms. Attention is turning to developing an understanding as to why climate model results show apparently consistent trends between the surface and the lower atmosphere, in contrast to these observations.While such uncertainties in the underlying science have been used to question whether action on the greenhouse issues is necessary, the initial response, as evidenced by international negotiations, has been to start mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation to future climate change has received less attention than mitigation. A number of reasons for this are discussed, including the fact that regional scenarios of climate change are uncertain.The principles of risk management may be one way to manage the uncertainties associated with projections of regional climate change. Although the application of risk management to the potential impacts of climate change requires further investigation, elements of such a framework are identified, and include:Identifying the critical climate-related thresholds that are important to industry and its operations (for example, a 1-in-100 year return tropical cyclone).Using this understanding to analyse, and where possible quantify, industry’s pre-existing or baseline adaptive state through the use of sensitivity surfaces and quantified thresholds (for example, were facilities designed for a 1-in-100 event or a 1-in-500 year event?)Establishing probabilistic statements or scenarios of climate that are relevant to industry practice (for example, risk of a storm surge may be more important to operations than elevated wind strength; if so, what is the probability that an event will exceed the design threshold during the lifetime of the facility?).Bringing information on existing adaptive mechanisms together with climate scenarios to produce a quantitative risk assessment.Deciding on risk treatment (additional adaptive measures).

In-stream wetland deposits, megadroughts, and cultural change in the northern Atacama Desert, Chile

2019 ◽  
Vol 91 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig D. Tully ◽  
Jason A. Rech ◽  
T. Race Workman ◽  
Calogero M. Santoro ◽  
José M. Capriles ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cultural Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Atacama Desert ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Synoptic Climatology ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
San Salvador ◽  
Fluvial Terraces ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractA key concern regarding current and future climate change is the possibility of sustained droughts that can have profound impacts on societies. As such, multiple paleoclimatic proxies are needed to identify megadroughts, the synoptic climatology responsible for these droughts, and their impacts on past and future societies. In the hyperarid Atacama Desert of northern Chile, many streams are characterized by perennial flow and support dense in-stream wetlands. These streams possess sequences of wetland deposits as fluvial terraces that record past changes in the water table. We mapped and radiocarbon dated a well-preserved sequence of in-stream wetland deposits along a 4.3-km reach of the Río San Salvador in the Calama basin to determine the relationship between regional climate change and the incision of in-stream wetlands. The Río San Salvador supported dense wetlands from 11.1 to 9.8, 6.4 to 3.5, 2.8 to 1.3, and 1.0 to 0.5 ka and incised at the end of each of these intervals. Comparison with other in-stream wetland sequences in the Atacama Desert, and with regional paleoclimatic archives, indicates that in-stream wetlands responded similarly to climatic changes by incising during periods of extended drought at ~9.8, 3.5, 1.3, and 0.5 ka.

Climate change and women in South Asia: a review and future policy implications

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-166
Author(s):  
Sangram Kishor Patel ◽  
Gopal Agrawal ◽  
Bincy Mathew ◽  
Sunita Patel ◽  
Biswajit Mohanty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Physical And Mental Health ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Future Policy

Purpose South Asian region is a focal point owing to its vulnerabilities to climate-sensitive diseases, dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods, projected levels of crop decline in the region, and high rates of poverty and malnutrition. Women are particularly vulnerable to climate change and this affects women disproportionately during different extreme events. The purpose of this paper is to understand the issue of climate change and its impact, and climate resilience among women in South Asia. Further, it also identifies the gaps and suggests future policy implications. Design/methodology/approach Climate change is increasingly being recognised as an alarming issue and the present review is important when South Asian countries are facing the brunt of climate change impacts. This paper tries to understand the issue by review of the literature and conceptual framework methodology. To understand women’s vulnerability due to climate change and its aftermath, the authors conducted both offline and online desk reviews for this study. Findings The findings of this study show a clear linkage between climate change and women’s vulnerabilities in South Asia. Climate change has significant socio-economic impacts on women, and it affects them disproportionately in various domains of agriculture, livelihood, food security, both physical and mental health, water and sanitation in the South Asia region. Practical implications The paper also highlights that the programmes that aim at combating the effects of climate change require a gender-sensitive approach so that climate change does not obstruct the development and reduction of poverty in the region. Social implications The findings of this paper will add value in helping families to come out of poverty by undertaking adaptive measures with proactive assistance from the government and grassroots level organisations. Originality/value The present study also advocates for more gender- and climate-sensitive measures from governments, and implementation of intervention- and evidence-based research in the South Asian countries.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on the Frequency of Hydrometeorological Extremes in the Island of Crete

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evdokia Tapoglou ◽  
Anthi Vozinaki ◽  
Ioannis Tsanis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Frequency analysis on extreme hydrological and meteorological events under the effect of climate change is performed in the island of Crete. Data from Regional Climate Model simulations (RCMs) that follow three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are used in the analysis. The analysis was performed for the 1985–2100 time period, divided into three equal-duration time slices (1985–2010, 2025–2050, and 2075–2100). Comparison between the results from the three time slices for the different RCMs under different RCP scenarios indicate that drought events are expected to increase in the future. The meteorological and hydrological drought indices, relative Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff index (SRI), are used to identify the number of drought events for each RCM. Results from extreme precipitation, extreme flow, meteorological and hydrological drought frequency analysis over Crete show that the impact of climate change on the magnitude of 100 years return period extreme events will also increase, along with the magnitude of extreme precipitation and flow events.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document