Combining CFD and GIS software capabilities to enhance rapid fine-scale urban micro- and bioclimatic modelling 

Author(s):  
Yannick Back ◽  
Prashant Kumar ◽  
Peter Marcus Bach ◽  
Alrun Jasper-Tönnies ◽  
Wolfgang Rauch ◽  
...  

<p>Cities around the world are under constant change. Population growth is leading to an increasing demand for residential, commercial and traffic areas and thus leading to progressive surface sealing and urban densification. Adding on the existing and growing challenging situation, the Earth’s climate is undergoing dramatical changes. Globally affecting cities by altering local temperature patterns, enhancing the occurrence of dry periods and increasing the frequency of Excessive Heat Events (EHE) as well as tropical nights per year, urban planning is becoming increasingly demanding. These consequences put cities (citizens and infrastructure) at risk, amplifying urban heat and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. To ensure anticipatory and holistic planning approaches to counteract the consequences of climate change, specific tools must be developed enabling consideration of different aspects and boundary conditions as well as analysis of crucial processes and complex relationships within the urban environments. Therefore, we introduce a simple and fast spatial GIS-based modelling approach to carry out fine-scale simulations for land surface temperature (LST), mean radiant temperature (MRT) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in a 2D urban environment. This modelling approach combines a fine-scale surface classification, comprised of eight different surface classes, thermal characteristics (global radiation, direct radiation and diffuse radiation), surface characteristics (Emissivity and Bowen-Ratio values) and meteorological input data. Based on this combined dataset and well-established physical relations in the model set-up, the model uses an adapted approach to first evaluate LST, followed by the MRT and finally the UTCI. A DEM (Digital Elevation Model), a CIR-Image (Coloured Infrared Image) and a vector layer depicting building geometry are required as model input datasets. The accuracy of the input datasets determines the accuracy of the output datasets including the three main indicators. To improve this modelling approach and to consider the effects of climate change, we combine this spatial GIS-approach with the capabilities of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). We use CFD software to simulate wind velocities as well as air temperatures based on certain input parameters. Simulation time strongly depends on the complexity of the urban form within the area of interest. Therefore, a specific urban area was selected and the building structure, as well as the tree structure, was approximated by a self-designed 3D model. An additional input data set containing LST is provided by the modelling approach described above. Temperature data of the building envelope was conducted using a thermal infrared camera, with on-site measurements in the study area carried out during the summer of 2020. Among other settings, an initial wind speed and air temperature define the boundary conditions. Transferring calculated wind speed and air temperature datasets for different heights across the study area using CFD into the GIS based approach, leads to improved spatial LST, MRT and UTCI calculations and results and thus enhanced urban micro- and bioclimatic modelling.</p>

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Oliveira ◽  
António Lopes ◽  
Ezequiel Correia ◽  
Samuel Niza ◽  
Amílcar Soares

Lisbon is a European Mediterranean city, greatly exposed to heatwaves (HW), according to recent trends and climate change prospects. Considering the Atlantic influence, air temperature observations from Lisbon’s mesoscale network are used to investigate the interactions between background weather and the urban thermal signal (UTS) in summer. Days are classified according to the prevailing regional wind direction, and hourly UTS is compared between HW and non-HW conditions. Northern-wind days predominate, revealing greater maximum air temperatures (up to 40 °C) and greater thermal amplitudes (approximately 10 °C), and account for 37 out of 49 HW days; southern-wind days have milder temperatures, and no HWs occur. Results show that the wind direction groups are significantly different. While southern-wind days have minor UTS variations, northern-wind days have a consistent UTS daily cycle: a diurnal urban cooling island (UCI) (often lower than –1.0 °C), a late afternoon peak urban heat island (UHI) (occasionally surpassing 4.0 °C), and a stable nocturnal UHI (1.5 °C median intensity). UHI/UCI intensities are not significantly different between HW and non-HW conditions, although the synoptic influence is noted. Results indicate that, in Lisbon, the UHI intensity does not increase during HW events, although it is significantly affected by wind. As such, local climate change adaptation strategies must be based on scenarios that account for the synergies between potential changes in regional air temperature and wind.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim van der Schriek ◽  
Konstantinos V. Varotsos ◽  
Dimitra Founda ◽  
Christos Giannakopoulos

<p>Historical changes, spanning 1971–2016, in the Athens Urban Heat Island (UHI) over summer were assessed by contrasting two air temperature records from established meteorological stations in urban and rural settings. When contrasting two 20-year historical periods (1976–1995 and 1996–2015), there is a significant difference in summer UHI regimes. The stronger UHI-intensity of the second period (1996–2015) is likely linked to increased pollution and heat input. Observations suggest that the Athens summer UHI characteristics even fluctuate on multi-annual basis. Specifically, the reduction in air pollution during the Greek Economic Recession (2008-2016) probable subtly changed the UHI regime, through lowering the frequencies of extremely hot days (T<sub>max</sub> > 37 °C) and nights (T<sub>min</sub> > 26 °C).</p><p>Subsequently, we examined the future temporal trends of two different UHIs in Athens (Greece) under three climate change scenarios. A five-member regional climate model (RCM) sub-ensemble from EURO-CORDEX with a horizontal resolution of 0.11° (~12 × 12 km) simulated air temperature data, spanning the period 1976–2100, for the two station sites. Three future emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were implanted in the simulations after 2005. The observed daily maximum and minimum air temperature data (T<sub>max</sub> and T<sub>min</sub>) from two historical UHI regimes (1976–1995 and 1996–2015, respectively) were used, separately, to bias-adjust the model simulations thus creating two sets of results.</p><p>This novel approach allowed us to assess future temperature developments in Athens under two different UHI intensity regimes. We found that the future frequency of days with T<sub>max</sub> > 37 °C in Athens was only different from rural background values under the intense UHI regime. There is a large increase in the future frequency of nights with T<sub>min</sub> > 26 °C in Athens under all UHI regimes and climate scenarios; these events remain comparatively rare at the rural site.</p><p>This study shows a large urban amplification of the frequency of extremely hot days and nights which is likely forced by increasing air pollution and heat input. Consequently, local mitigation policies aimed at decreasing urban atmospheric pollution are expected to be also effective in reducing urban temperatures during extreme heat events in Athens under all future climate change scenarios. Such policies therefore have multiple benefits, including: reducing electricity (energy) needs, improving living quality and decreasing heat- and pollution related illnesses/deaths.</p><p> </p>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Hamer ◽  
Heidelinde Trimmel ◽  
Philipp Weihs ◽  
Stéphanie Faroux ◽  
Herbert Formayer ◽  
...  

<p>Climate change threatens to exacerbate existing problems in urban areas arising from the urban heat island. Furthermore, expansion of urban areas and rising urban populations will increase the numbers of people exposed to hazards in these vulnerable areas. We therefore urgently need study of these environments and in-depth assessment of potential climate adaptation measures.</p><p>We present a study of heat wave impacts across the urban landscape of Vienna for different future development pathways and for both present and future climatic conditions. We have created two different urban development scenarios that estimate potential urban sprawl and optimized development concerning future building construction in Vienna and have built a digital representation of each within the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban surface model. In addition, we select two heat waves of similar frequency of return representative for present and future conditions (following the RCP8.5 scenario) of the mid 21<sup>st</sup> century and use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate both heat wave events. We then couple the two representations urban Vienna in TEB with the WRF heat wave simulations to estimate air temperature, surface temperatures and human thermal comfort during the heat waves. We then identify and apply a set of adaptation measures within TEB to try to identify potential solutions to the problems associated with the urban heat island.</p><p>Global and regional climate change under the RCP8.5 scenario causes the future heat wave to be more severe showing an increase of daily maximum air temperature in Vienna by 7 K; the daily minimum air temperature will increase by 2-4 K. We find that changes caused by urban growth or densification mainly affect air temperature and human thermal comfort local to where new urbanisation takes place and does not occur significantly in the existing central districts.</p><p>Exploring adaptation solutions, we find that a combination of near zero-energy standards and increasing albedo of building materials on the city scale accomplishes a maximum reduction of urban canyon temperature of 0.9 K for the minima and 0.2 K for the maxima. Local scale changes of different adaption measures show that insulation of buildings alone increases the maximum wall surface temperatures by more than 10 K or the maximum mean radiant temperature (MRT) in the canyon by 5 K.  Therefore, additional adaptation to reduce MRT within the urban canyons like tree shade are needed to complement the proposed measures.</p><p>This study concludes that the rising air temperatures expected by climate change puts an unprecedented heat burden on Viennese inhabitants, which cannot easily be reduced by measures concerning buildings within the city itself. Additionally, measures such as planting trees to provide shade, regional water sensitive planning and global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to reduce temperature extremes are required.</p><p>We are now actively seeking to apply this set of tools to a wider set of cases in order to try to find effective solutions to projected warming resulting from climate change in urban areas.</p>


Author(s):  
L.V. Malytska ◽  
V. O Balabukh

In Ukraine, as in the world, substantial climatic changes have happened throughout past decades. It is a fact that they are manifested in changing of parameters of the thermal regime, regimes of wind and humidity. It is expected that they will be observed also in future that will lead to aggravation of negative effects and risks due to climate change. That determines the relevance of the problem of forecasting such changes in future both globally and regionally. After all, knowledge of climate’s behavior in future is very important in the development of strategies, program and measures to adapt to climate change. The article is devoted to assessing spatio-temporal distribution main climatic indicators (air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity) in Ukraine, their variability and the probable values to the middle of the 21st century (2021-2050). Projection of changes in meteorological conditions was made for A1B scenario of SRES family using data of the regional climate model REMO and data from the hydrometeorological observation network of Ukraine (175 stations). Estimated data obtained from the European FP-6 ENSEMBLES project with a resolution of 25 km. For spatial distribution (mapping) we used open-source Geographic Information System QGIS, type of geographic coordinate system for project is WGS84. In the middle of the XXI century, if A1B scenario is released, it is expected a significant changes of climatic parameters regarding the 1981-2010 climatic norm: air temperature is rise by 1,5 °C, average wind speed is decrease by 5-8%, relative humidity in winter probably drop by 2%, but in summer it rises by 1,5%. The unidirectionality of the changes is characteristic only of air temperature, for wind speed and relative humidity the changes are in different directions. The intensity of changes is also not uniform across the country for all climatic parameters, has its regional and seasonal features. Statistical likelihood for most of highlighted changes for all climatic parameters is 66 % and more, the air temperature change is virtually certain (p-level <0.001).


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Schlögl ◽  
Nico Bader ◽  
Julien Gérard Anet ◽  
Martin Frey ◽  
Curdin Spirig ◽  
...  

&lt;p&gt;Today, more than half of the world&amp;#8217;s population lives in urban areas and the proportion is projected to increase further in the near future. The increased number of heatwaves worldwide caused by the anthropogenic climate change may lead to heat stress and significant economic and ecological damages. Therefore, the growth of urban areas in combination with climate change can increase future mortality rates in cities, given that cities are more vulnerable to heatwaves due to the greater heat storage capacity of artificial surfaces towards higher longwave radiation fluxes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To detect urban heat islands and resolve the micro-scale air temperature field in an urban environment, a low-cost air temperature network, including 450 sensors, was installed in the Swiss cities of Zurich and Basel in 2019 and 2020. These air temperature data, complemented with further official measurement stations, force a statistical air temperature downscaling model for urban environments, which is used operationally to calculate hourly micro-scale air temperatures in 10 m horizontal resolution. In addition to air temperature measurements from the low-cost sensor network, the model is further forced by albedo, NDVI, and NDBI values generated from the polar-orbiting satellite Sentinel-2, land surface temperatures estimated from Landsat-8, and high-resolution digital surface and elevation models.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Urban heat islands (UHI) are processed averaging hourly air temperatures over an entire year for each grid point, and comparing this average to the overall average in rural areas. UHI effects can then be correlated to high-resolution local climate zone maps and other local factors.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Between 60-80 % of the urban area is modeled with an accuracy below 1 K for an hourly time step indicating that the approach may work well in different cities. However, the outcome may depend on the complexity of the cities. The model error decreases rapidly by increasing the number of spatially distributed sensor data used to train the model, from 0 to 70 sensors, and then plateaus with further increases. An accuracy below 1 K can be expected for more than 50 air temperature measurements within the investigated cities and the surrounding rural areas.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;A strong statistical air temperature model coupled with atmospheric boundary layer models (e.g. PALM-4U, MUKLIMO, FITNAH) will aid to generate highly resolved urban heat island prediction maps that help decision-makers to identify local heat islands easier. This will ensure that financial resources will be invested as efficiently as possible in mitigation actions.&lt;/p&gt;


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Tian ◽  
Klaus Fraedrich ◽  
Feng Ma

&lt;p&gt;Extreme events such as heat waves occurred in urban have a large influence on human life due to population density. For urban areas, the urban heat island effect could further exacerbate the heat stress of heat waves. Meanwhile, the global climate change over the last few decades has changed the pattern and spatial distribution of local-scale extreme events. Commonly used climate models could capture broad-scale spatial changes in climate phenomena, but representing extreme events on local scales requires data with finer resolution. Here we present a deep learning based downscaling method to capture the localized near surface temperature features from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) framework. The downscaling is based on super-resolution image processing methods which could build relationships between coarse and fine resolution. This downscaling framework will then be applied to future emission scenarios over the period 2030 to 2100. The influence of future climate change on the occurrence of heat waves in urban and its interaction with urban heat island effect for ten most densely populated cities in China are studied. The heat waves are defined based on air temperature and the urban heat island is measured by the urban-rural difference in 2m-height air temperature. Improvements in data resolution enhanced the utility for assessing the surface air temperature record. Comparisons of urban heat waves from multiple climate models suggest that near-surface temperature trends and heat island effects are greatly affected by global warming. High resolution climate data offer the potential for further assessment of worldwide urban warming influences.&lt;/p&gt;


Author(s):  
Ana Carla dos Santos Gomes ◽  
Maytê Duarte Leal Coutinho ◽  
Fábio de Paula Viana ◽  
Losany Branches Viana ◽  
Sivaldo Filho Seixas Tavares ◽  
...  

This research aims to analyze and estimate future scenarios of maximum air temperature in the capitals of northeastern Brazil, in order to highlight the importance of climate change today and in the future. For this, rainfall, wind speed, relative humidity and maximum air temperature data were used by the database meteorological activities of the National Institute of Meteorology, of the nine capitals of the northeastern region of Brazil from 1980 to 2019, and the dynamic regression technique that combines the dynamics of time series and the effect of explanatory variables.The main results showed that the dynamic regression model satisfactorily adjusted the association between meteorological variables.Trend (without lag) and seasonality (lag) functions were considered in all capitals, presenting the occurrence of different lags according to the capital and the variable. Thus, the highest temperatures among the capitals analyzed occurred in Teresina/PI and the least high, in Salvador/BA. In general terms, the optimistic scenarios (C1) presented temperature between 32.5 and 35 ºC, the pessimists (C2) between 37.5 ºC and extremes (C3) 35 and 39 ºC, evidencing that all future scenarios present danger to the population. It is expected that the results obtained can help public policies.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umberto Berardi ◽  
Yupeng Wang

In the last decades, several studies have revealed how critical the urban heat island (UHI) effect can be in cities located in cold climates, such as the Canadian one. Meanwhile, many researchers have looked at the impact of the city design over the urban microclimate, and have raised concerns about the development of too dense cities. Under the effect of the “Places to Growth” plan, the city of Toronto is experiencing one of the highest rates of building development in North America. Over 48,000 and 33,000 new home permits were issued in 2012 and 2013 respectively, and at the beginning of 2015, almost 500 high-rise proposals across the Greater Toronto Area were released. In this context, it is important to investigate how new constructions will affect the urban microclimate, and to propose strategies to mitigate possible UHI effects. Using the software ENVI-met, microclimate simulations for the Church-Yonge corridor both in the current situation and with the new constructions are reported in this paper. The outdoor air temperature and the wind speed are the parameters used to assess the outdoor microclimate changes. The results show that the new constructions could increase the wind speed around the buildings. However, high-rise buildings will somewhat reduce the air temperature during day-time, as they will create large shadow areas, with lower average mean radiant temperature.


Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Afifa Mohammed ◽  
Gloria Pignatta ◽  
Evangelia Topriska ◽  
Mattheos Santamouris

The impact that climate change and urbanization are having on the thermal-energy balance of the built environment is a major environmental concern today. Urban heat island (UHI) is another phenomenon that can raise the temperature in cities. This study aims to examine the UHI magnitude and its association with the main meteorological parameters (i.e., temperature, wind speed, and wind direction) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Five years of hourly weather data (2014–2018) obtained from weather stations located in an urban, suburban, and rural area, were post-processed by means of a clustering technique. Six clusters characterized by different ranges of wind directions were analyzed. The analysis reveals that UHI is affected by the synoptic weather conditions (i.e., sea breeze and hot air coming from the desert) and is larger at night. In the urban area, air temperature and night-time UHI intensity, averaged on the five year period, are 1.3 °C and 3.3 °C higher with respect to the rural area, respectively, and the UHI and air temperature are independent of each other only when the wind comes from the desert. A negative and inverse correlation was found between the UHI and wind speed for all the wind directions, except for the northern wind where no correlation was observed. In the suburban area, the UHI and both temperatures and wind speed ranged between the strong and a weak negative correlation considering all the wind directions, while a strong negative correlation was observed in the rural area. This paper concludes that UHI intensity is strongly associated with local climatic parameters and to the changes in wind direction.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Alexandra Winter-Billington

<p>Temporal and spatial variability of stream discharge is directly related to variation in local climate, and this in turn is related to both  regional and global atmospheric circulation and climate change. The relationship is complicated in glacierised catchments. This study aims to identify relationships between discharge from Brewster Glacier proglacial stream and both local atmospheric variables and national atmospheric circulation patterns. An attempt is made to quantify these relationships using statistical models and tests in order that prediction of discharge with climate change could be made using local weather forecasts and national circulation indices. The nature of the subglacial drainage system is also investigated with particular focus on its structural evolution from summer to autumn. It is found that shortwave radiation, wind speed and relative humidity are consistently the most important variables in prediction of discharge and that wind speed is most important during summer while air temperature is most important in autumn. It is concluded that the importance of precipitation is greater than indicated by the results which were influenced by covariance in the records. A multiple regression model for summer discharge predicts up to 85% of variation in the proglacial stream hydrograph and for autumn 60%. Low overall energy inputs during autumn result in lesser sensitivity of discharge to variation in environmental conditions. It is concluded that the subglacial drainage system is highly arborescent over both summer and autumn and that little, if any, evolution occurs through these seasons. A qualitative relationship is established between discharge production at Brewster Glacier proglacial stream and national atmospheric circulation indices; highest average discharge occurs during northwesterly cyclonic conditions, when the turbulent heat fluxes and precipitation dominate discharge production, and lowest during southeasterly anticyclones when total energy inputs are low. The multiple regression models are used to estimate changes in discharge over the next 20 years given predicted changes in air temperature and precipitation, and it is found that the models lack the sensitivity required for accurate predictions.</p>


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