scholarly journals Construção de cenários futuros da temperatura máxima do ar: Capitais do Nordeste Brasileiro

2021 ◽  
pp. 2427-2445
Author(s):  
Ana Carla dos Santos Gomes ◽  
Maytê Duarte Leal Coutinho ◽  
Fábio de Paula Viana ◽  
Losany Branches Viana ◽  
Sivaldo Filho Seixas Tavares ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
General Terms ◽  
Dynamic Regression Model ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature

This research aims to analyze and estimate future scenarios of maximum air temperature in the capitals of northeastern Brazil, in order to highlight the importance of climate change today and in the future. For this, rainfall, wind speed, relative humidity and maximum air temperature data were used by the database meteorological activities of the National Institute of Meteorology, of the nine capitals of the northeastern region of Brazil from 1980 to 2019, and the dynamic regression technique that combines the dynamics of time series and the effect of explanatory variables.The main results showed that the dynamic regression model satisfactorily adjusted the association between meteorological variables.Trend (without lag) and seasonality (lag) functions were considered in all capitals, presenting the occurrence of different lags according to the capital and the variable. Thus, the highest temperatures among the capitals analyzed occurred in Teresina/PI and the least high, in Salvador/BA. In general terms, the optimistic scenarios (C1) presented temperature between 32.5 and 35 ºC, the pessimists (C2) between 37.5 ºC and extremes (C3) 35 and 39 ºC, evidencing that all future scenarios present danger to the population. It is expected that the results obtained can help public policies.

scholarly journals Historical and future temporal trends in the summer Urban Heat Island of Athens (Greece) 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim van der Schriek ◽  
Konstantinos V. Varotsos ◽  
Dimitra Founda ◽  
Christos Giannakopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Hot Days ◽  
The Future ◽  
Urban Heat

<p>Historical changes, spanning 1971–2016, in the Athens Urban Heat Island (UHI) over summer were assessed by contrasting two air temperature records from established meteorological stations in urban and rural settings. When contrasting two 20-year historical periods (1976–1995 and 1996–2015), there is a significant difference in summer UHI regimes. The stronger UHI-intensity of the second period (1996–2015) is likely linked to increased pollution and heat input. Observations suggest that the Athens summer UHI characteristics even fluctuate on multi-annual basis. Specifically, the reduction in air pollution during the Greek Economic Recession (2008-2016) probable subtly changed the UHI regime, through lowering the frequencies of extremely hot days (T<sub>max</sub> > 37 °C) and nights (T<sub>min</sub> > 26 °C).</p><p>Subsequently, we examined the future temporal trends of two different UHIs in Athens (Greece) under three climate change scenarios. A five-member regional climate model (RCM) sub-ensemble from EURO-CORDEX with a horizontal resolution of 0.11° (~12 × 12 km) simulated air temperature data, spanning the period 1976–2100, for the two station sites. Three future emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were implanted in the simulations after 2005. The observed daily maximum and minimum air temperature data (T<sub>max</sub> and T<sub>min</sub>) from two historical UHI regimes (1976–1995 and 1996–2015, respectively) were used, separately, to bias-adjust the model simulations thus creating two sets of results.</p><p>This novel approach allowed us to assess future temperature developments in Athens under two different UHI intensity regimes. We found that the future frequency of days with T<sub>max</sub> > 37 °C in Athens was only different from rural background values under the intense UHI regime. There is a large increase in the future frequency of nights with T<sub>min</sub> > 26 °C in Athens under all UHI regimes and climate scenarios; these events remain comparatively rare at the rural site.</p><p>This study shows a large urban amplification of the frequency of extremely hot days and nights which is likely forced by increasing air pollution and heat input. Consequently, local mitigation policies aimed at decreasing urban atmospheric pollution are expected to be also effective in reducing urban temperatures during extreme heat events in Athens under all future climate change scenarios. Such policies therefore have multiple benefits, including: reducing electricity (energy) needs, improving living quality and decreasing heat- and pollution related illnesses/deaths.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Increase in Air Temperature in The Region of South Sumatra Province as the Indicator of Global Warming and the Effect on Transpiration of Lansium domesticum Corr.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ari Sugiarto ◽  
Hanifa Marisa ◽  
Sarno
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Transpiration Rate ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Randomized Design ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature ◽  
Lansium Domesticum ◽  
Minimum Air Temperature

Abstract Global warming is one of biggest problems faced in the 21st century. One of the impacts of global warming is that it can affect the transpiration rate of plants that °Ccur. This study purpose to see how much increase in air temperature that occurred in the region of South Sumatra Province and to know the effect of increase in ari temperature in the region of South Sumatra Province on transpiration rate of Lansium domesticum Corr. This study used a complete randomized design with 9 treatments (22.9 °C, 23.6 °C, 24.6 °C, 26.3 °C, 27 °C, 27.8 °C, 31.7 °C, 32.5 °C, and 32.9 °C) and 3 replications. Air temperature data as secondary data obtained from the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (MCGA) Palembang Climatology Station in South Sumatra Province. The measurement of transpiration rate is done by modified potometer method with additional glass box. The data obtained are presented in the form of tables and graphs. Transpiration rate (mm3/g plant/hour) at temperture 22.9 °C = 4.37, 23.6 °C = 7.03, 24.6 °C = 8.03, 26.3 °C = 10.11, 27 °C = 13.13, 27.8 °C = 17.87, 31.7 °C = 23.21, 32.5 °C= 25.45 and 32.9 °C= 27.24. At the minimum air temperature in the region of South Sumatra Province there is increase in air temperature of 1.5 °C, average daily air temperature increase 1.3 °C and maximum air temperature increase 1.2 °C.

Long-term (1900-2100) Hydrometeorological and Snow Water Equivalent reconstructions in the French Southern Alps (Mercantour Natural Parc).

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thibault Mathevet ◽  
Cyril Thébault ◽  
Jérôme Mansons ◽  
Matthieu Le Lay ◽  
Audrey Valery ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Southern Alps ◽  
Snow Line ◽  
Snow Water

<p>The aim of this communication is to present a study on climate variability and change on snow water equivalent (SWE) and streamflow over the 1900-2100 period in a mediteranean and moutainuous area.  It is based on SWE and streamflow observations, past reconstructions (1900-2018) and future GIEC scenarii (up to 2100) of some snow courses and hydrological stations situated within the French Southern Alps (Mercantour Natural Parc). This has been conducted by EDF (French hydropower company) and Mercantour Natural Parc.</p><p>This issue became particularly important since a decade, especially in regions where snow variability had a large impact on water resources availability, poor snow conditions in ski resorts and artificial snow production or impacts on mountainous ecosystems (fauna and flora). As a water resources manager in French mountainuous regions, EDF developed and managed a large hydrometeorological network since 1950. A recent data rescue research allowed to digitize long term SWE manual measurements of a hundred of snow courses within the French Alps. EDF have been operating an automatic SWE sensors network, complementary to historical snow course network. Based on numerous SWE observations time-series and snow modelization (Garavaglia et al., 2017), continuous daily historical SWE time-series have been reconstructed within the 1950-2018 period. These reconstructions have been extented to 1900 using 20 CR (20<sup>th</sup> century reanalyses by NOAA) reanalyses (ANATEM method, Kuentz et al., 2015) and up to 2100 using GIEC Climate Change scenarii (+4.5 W/m² and + 8.5 W/m² hypotheses). In the scope of this study, Mercantour Natural Parc is particularly interested by snow scenarii in the future and its impacts on their local flora and fauna.</p><p>Considering observations within Durance watershed and Mercantour region, this communication focuses on: (1) long term (1900-2018) analyses of variability and trend of hydrometeorological and snow variables (total precipitation, air temperature, snow water equivalent, snow line altitude, snow season length, streamflow regimes) , (2) long term variability of snow and hydrological regime of snow dominated watersheds and (3) future trends (2020 -2100) using GIEC Climate Change scenarii.</p><p>Comparing old period (1950-1984) to recent period (1984-2018), quantitative results within these regions roughly shows an increase of air temperature by 1.2 °C, an increase of snow line height by 200m, a reduction of SWE by 200 mm/year and a reduction of snow season duration by 15 days. Characterization of the increase of snow line height and SWE reduction are particularly important at a local and watershed scale. Then, this communication focuses on impacts on long-term time scales (2050, 2100). This long term change of snow dynamics within moutainuous regions both impacts (1) water resources management, (2) snow resorts and artificial snow production developments or (3) ecosystems dynamics.Connected to the evolution of snow seasonality, the impacts on hydrological regime and some streamflow signatures allow to characterize the possible evolution of water resources in this mediteranean and moutianuous region This study allowed to provide some local quantitative scenarii.</p>

POSSIBLE CHANGES OF CLIMATE CONDITIONS IN UKRAINE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE XXI CENTURY

2020 ◽  
pp. 94-100
Author(s):  
L.V. Malytska ◽  
V. O Balabukh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
Average Wind Speed ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
A1b Scenario

In Ukraine, as in the world, substantial climatic changes have happened throughout past decades. It is a fact that they are manifested in changing of parameters of the thermal regime, regimes of wind and humidity. It is expected that they will be observed also in future that will lead to aggravation of negative effects and risks due to climate change. That determines the relevance of the problem of forecasting such changes in future both globally and regionally. After all, knowledge of climate’s behavior in future is very important in the development of strategies, program and measures to adapt to climate change. The article is devoted to assessing spatio-temporal distribution main climatic indicators (air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity) in Ukraine, their variability and the probable values to the middle of the 21st century (2021-2050). Projection of changes in meteorological conditions was made for A1B scenario of SRES family using data of the regional climate model REMO and data from the hydrometeorological observation network of Ukraine (175 stations). Estimated data obtained from the European FP-6 ENSEMBLES project with a resolution of 25 km. For spatial distribution (mapping) we used open-source Geographic Information System QGIS, type of geographic coordinate system for project is WGS84. In the middle of the XXI century, if A1B scenario is released, it is expected a significant changes of climatic parameters regarding the 1981-2010 climatic norm: air temperature is rise by 1,5 °C, average wind speed is decrease by 5-8%, relative humidity in winter probably drop by 2%, but in summer it rises by 1,5%. The unidirectionality of the changes is characteristic only of air temperature, for wind speed and relative humidity the changes are in different directions. The intensity of changes is also not uniform across the country for all climatic parameters, has its regional and seasonal features. Statistical likelihood for most of highlighted changes for all climatic parameters is 66 % and more, the air temperature change is virtually certain (p-level <0.001).

scholarly journals A physically based method for correcting temperature data measured by naturally ventilated sensors over snow

2001 ◽  
Vol 47 (159) ◽  
pp. 665-670 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Arck ◽  
Dieter Scherer
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Low Wind Speed ◽  
Snowmelt Period ◽  
Physically Based

AbstractDuring the snowmelt period in 1998, air-temperature data were acquired at 1 min intervals using different measurement systems as part of a field campaign in the Kärkevagge, Swedish Lapland. A comparison reveals that temperatures from naturally ventilated sensors exceed temperatures from aspirated sensors by as much as 6.2 K. Errors in temperature are closely connected to high values of upwelling shortwave radiation and are larger in periods of low wind speed. Measurement errors result from the instantaneous radiation conditions and propagate over the next measurements due to slow response time of the naturally ventilated sensor. A physically based method is developed for correcting temperature data influenced by radiation errors, which requires additional measurements of wind speed and upwelling shortwave radiation. Coefficients of the correction formula are automatically determined from the erroneous temperature data, so the method is independent of accurate air-temperature measurements. The high quality of the correction method could be validated by accurate psychrometer measurements. One of the most important applications is the computation of sensible-heat fluxes from snow-covered surfaces during the snowmelt period using the bulk-aerodynamic method, which is greatly improved by the new correction method.

scholarly journals Aumento das temperaturas extremas na cidade do Rio de Janeiro e o desvio ocasionado durante um evento de El Niño intenso (Thermal change in the city of Rio de Janeiro and the deviation caused during an intense El Niño event)

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1291
Author(s):  
Henderson Silva Wanderley ◽  
Ronabson Cardoso Fernandes ◽  
André Luiz De Carvalho
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
The City ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature

O processo de urbanização tem o potencial de alterar a característica térmica e aerodinâmica da superfície dos grandes centros urbanos, possibilitando o aumento da temperatura do ar. No entanto, a correlação da intensificação da temperatura do ar em áreas urbanas em resposta a um evento extremo de El Niño é escassa, principalmente no que se refere à cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Assim, o objetivo deste estudo visa quantificar as mudanças ocorridas na temperatura do ar (máxima e mínima) na cidade do Rio de Janeiro e o desvio ocasionado às temperaturas extremas durante um evento de El Niño intenso. Os dados de temperatura do ar utilizados referem-se às normais climatológicas nos períodos climatológicos de 1961-1990 e 1980-2010, comparados entre si, e posteriormente, comparou-se as normais climatológicas do período de 1980-2010 com as do El Niño intenso de 2015-2016. Para a análise, dados de temperatura mínima e máxima do ar em uma escala mensal foram comparados. As médias mensais das temperaturas em análise foram submetidas ao ajuste do coeficiente de correlação de Pearson, ao teste t de Student e ao teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov. Os resultados mostraram um aumento médio na temperatura do ar mínima (máxima) de +0,66 °C e +0,73 °C (+1,21 °C e +0,90 °C), respectivamente entre os períodos climatológicos e o último período climatológico com o evento El Niño intenso, entretanto, sem diferença estatística para o aumento da média e de sua distribuição.   A B S T R A C TUrbanization process has potential to change the thermal and aerodynamic characteristics of large urban centers surface, allowing the increase of air temperature. However, correlation of air temperature intensification in urban areas in response to an extreme event of El Niño is scarce, especially in relation to the city of Rio de Janeiro. Thus, the objective of this study is to quantify the changes occurred in the air temperature (maximum and minimum) in the city of Rio de Janeiro and the deviation caused to extreme temperatures during an intense event of El Niño. Data of air temperature data refer to the climatological normals in the periods of 1961-1990 and 1980-2010, and intense event of El Niño occurred in 2015-2016. For the analysis, minimum and maximum air temperature data on a monthly scale were compared. Monthly mean values of the air temperature under analysis were adjusted to the Pearson correlation coefficient, Student's t-test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The results showed a mean increase in minimum (maximum) air temperature of +0.66 °C and +0.73 °C (+1.21 °C and +0.90 °C), respectively between the climatological periods and the last climatological period with the intense event of El Niño, however, with no statistical difference for the increase of the mean and its distribution.Keywords: Urban climate, ENSO, air temperature.

scholarly journals Os fatores geoecológicos, geourbanos e o clima urbano de Iporá-GO: uma análise a partir do Método de Correlação Linear

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 77
Author(s):  
Washington Silva Alves ◽  
Zilda De Fátima Mariano
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Spatial Variation ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Absolute Minimum ◽  
El Sistema ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature

Resumo O objetivo desse trabalho consistiu em analisar a influência dos fatores geoecológicos e geourbanos no padrão da temperatura do ar máxima e mínima absoluta em Iporá-GO, por meio do método estatístico de correlação linear. Os fundamentos teóricos e metodológicos pautaram-se no sistema clima urbano de Monteiro (2003), com ênfase no subsistema termodinâmico. Os fatores geoecológicos (hipsometria, exposição de vertente, vegetação urbana e hidrografia) e geourbanos (densidade de construção e o uso do solo urbano), foram georreferenciado com auxílio dos softwares ArcGis 9.0, Spring 5.3 e Surfer 9.0. Os dados de temperatura do ar foram coletados entre outubro de 2012 e outubro de 2013, em intervalos de 30 minutos, com termohigrômetros (modelo HT-500) e estações meteorológicas automáticas distribuídos em seis pontos da área urbana e rural de Iporá. Posteriormente, os dados foram organizados em planilhas de cálculos para análise estatística. Os resultados demonstraram que os fatores geoecológicos e geourbanos citados foram decisivos na variação espacial da temperatura do ar máxima e mínima absoluta em Iporá.Palavras-chave: Climatologia, Cidade, Clima Urbano AbstractThe objective of this study is to analyze the influence of geoecological factors and geourbanos the standard maximum air temperature and absolute minimum in Iporá-GO, by means of statistical methods of correlation linear. The theoretical and methodological foundations guided in the urban climate system Monteiro (2003), with emphasis on thermodynamic subsystem. The geoecological factors (hipsometria, slop exposure, urban and Hydrography vegetation) and geourban (building density and the use of urban land), were georeferenced with the help of software ArcGIS 9.0, Sprint 5.3 and Surfer 9.0. The air temperature data were collected between October 2012 and October 2013, in 30-minute intervals, with hygrometer term (HT-500 model) and automatic weather stations distributed in six points of the urban and rural Iporá. Later, the data were organized into spreadsheets for statistical analysis. The results showed that geoecological mentioned factors and geourbanos were decisive in the spatial variation of the temperature of the air and maximum absolute minimum in Iporá.Keywords: Climatology, City, Urban Climate ResumenEl objetivo de este estudio fue analizar la influencia de los factores geoecológicos y geourbanos en el patrón de la temperatura máxima y mínima absoluta del aire en Iporá-GO, a través de lo método estadístico de correlación lineal. Los fundamentos teóricos y metodológicos se basan en el sistema de clima urbano de Monteiro (2003), con énfasis en el subsistema termodinámico. Los factores geoecológicos (hipsometría, hebras de exposición, hidrografía y vegetación urbana) y geourbanos (densidad de edificación y uso del suelo urbano) fueron georeferenciados con la ayuda del software ArcGIS 9.0, Spring 5.3 y Surfer 9.0. Los datos de temperatura del aire se recogieron entre octubre 2012 y octubre 2013, en intervalos de 30 minutos, con termohigrômetros (modelo HT-500) y estaciones meteorológicas automáticas distribuidas en seis puntos de las zonas urbanas y rurales. Posteriormente, los datos se organizaron en las hojas de cálculo para el análisis estadístico. Los resultados mostraron que los factores geoecológicos y geourbanos citados fueron decisivos en la variación espacial de la temperatura máxima y mínima absoluta del aire en Iporá.Palavras clave: Climatología, Ciudad, Clima Urbano 

scholarly journals Modelling of Multi Input Transfer Function for Rainfall Forecasting in Batu City

CAUCHY ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Priska Arindya Purnama
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Transfer Function ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Time Series Model ◽  
Transfer Function Model ◽  
Air Humidity ◽  
Rainfall Forecasting ◽  
Function Model

The aim of this research is to model and forecast the rainfall in Batu City using multi input transfer function model based on air temperature, humidity, wind speed and cloud. Transfer function model is a multivariate time series model which consists of an output series (Y<sub>t</sub>) sequence expected to be effected by an input series (X<sub>t</sub>) and other inputs in a group called a noise series (N<sub>t</sub>). Multi input transfer function model obtained is (<em>b<sub>1</sub>,s<sub>1</sub>,r<sub>1</sub></em>) (<em>b<sub>2</sub>,s<sub>2</sub>,r<sub>2</sub></em>) (<em>b<sub>3</sub>,s<sub>3</sub>,r<sub>3</sub></em>) (<em>b<sub>4</sub>,s<sub>4</sub>,r<sub>4</sub></em>)(<em>p<sub>n</sub>,q<sub>n</sub></em>) = (0,0,0) (23,0,0) (1,2,0) (0,0,0) ([5,8],2) and shows that air temperature on t-day affects rainfall on t-day, rainfall on t-day is influenced by air humidity in the previous 23 days, rainfall on t-day is affected by wind speed in the previous day , and rainfall on day t is affected by clouds on day t. The results of rainfall forecasting in Batu City with multi input transfer function model can be said to be accurate, because it produces relatively small RMSE value. The value of RMSE data forecasting training is 7.7921 while forecasting data testing is 4.2184. Multi-input transfer function model is suitable for rainfall in Batu City.

scholarly journals Projected Future Temporal Trends of Two Different Urban Heat Islands in Athens (Greece) under Three Climate Change Scenarios: A Statistical Approach

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 637 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim van der Schriek ◽  
Konstantinos V. Varotsos ◽  
Christos Giannakopoulos ◽  
Dimitra Founda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Rural Site ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This is the first study to look at future temporal urban heath island (UHI) trends of Athens (Greece) under different UHI intensity regimes. Historical changes in the Athens UHI, spanning 1971–2016, were assessed by contrasting two air temperature records from stable meteorological stations in contrasting urban and rural settings. Subsequently, we used a five-member regional climate model (RCM) sub-ensemble from EURO-CORDEX with a horizontal resolution of 0.11° (~12 × 12 km) to simulate air temperature data, spanning the period 1976–2100, for the two station sites. Three future emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) were implanted in the simulations after 2005 covering the period 2006–2100. Two 20-year historical reference periods (1976–1995 and 1996–2015) were selected with contrasting UHI regimes; the second period had a stronger intensity. The daily maximum and minimum air temperature data (Tmax and Tmin) for the two reference periods were perturbed to two future periods, 2046–2065 and 2076–2095, under the three RCPs, by applying the empirical quantile mapping (eqm) bias-adjusting method. This novel approach allows us to assess future temperature developments in Athens under two UHI intensity regimes that are mainly forced by differences in air pollution and heat input. We found that the future frequency of days with Tmax > 37 °C in Athens was only different from rural background values under the intense UHI regime. Thus, the impact of heatwaves on the urban environment of Athens is dependent on UHI intensity. There is a large increase in the future frequency of nights with Tmin > 26 °C in Athens under all UHI regimes and climate scenarios; these events remain comparatively rare at the rural site. This large urban amplification of the frequency of extremely hot nights is likely caused by air pollution. Consequently, local mitigation policies aimed at decreasing urban atmospheric pollution are expected to be highly effective in reducing urban temperatures and extreme heat events in Athens under future climate change scenarios. Such policies directly have multiple benefits, including reduced electricity (energy) needs, improved living quality and strong health advantages (heat- and pollution-related illness/deaths).

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