Can climate adaptation solutions fix the urban heat island? An assessment of the thermal conditions during heat waves in Vienna impacted by climate change and urban development scenarios for the mid-21st-century

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Hamer ◽  
Heidelinde Trimmel ◽  
Philipp Weihs ◽  
Stéphanie Faroux ◽  
Herbert Formayer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Human Thermal Comfort ◽  
Urban Heat

<p>Climate change threatens to exacerbate existing problems in urban areas arising from the urban heat island. Furthermore, expansion of urban areas and rising urban populations will increase the numbers of people exposed to hazards in these vulnerable areas. We therefore urgently need study of these environments and in-depth assessment of potential climate adaptation measures.</p><p>We present a study of heat wave impacts across the urban landscape of Vienna for different future development pathways and for both present and future climatic conditions. We have created two different urban development scenarios that estimate potential urban sprawl and optimized development concerning future building construction in Vienna and have built a digital representation of each within the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban surface model. In addition, we select two heat waves of similar frequency of return representative for present and future conditions (following the RCP8.5 scenario) of the mid 21<sup>st</sup> century and use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate both heat wave events. We then couple the two representations urban Vienna in TEB with the WRF heat wave simulations to estimate air temperature, surface temperatures and human thermal comfort during the heat waves. We then identify and apply a set of adaptation measures within TEB to try to identify potential solutions to the problems associated with the urban heat island.</p><p>Global and regional climate change under the RCP8.5 scenario causes the future heat wave to be more severe showing an increase of daily maximum air temperature in Vienna by 7 K; the daily minimum air temperature will increase by 2-4 K. We find that changes caused by urban growth or densification mainly affect air temperature and human thermal comfort local to where new urbanisation takes place and does not occur significantly in the existing central districts.</p><p>Exploring adaptation solutions, we find that a combination of near zero-energy standards and increasing albedo of building materials on the city scale accomplishes a maximum reduction of urban canyon temperature of 0.9 K for the minima and 0.2 K for the maxima. Local scale changes of different adaption measures show that insulation of buildings alone increases the maximum wall surface temperatures by more than 10 K or the maximum mean radiant temperature (MRT) in the canyon by 5 K.  Therefore, additional adaptation to reduce MRT within the urban canyons like tree shade are needed to complement the proposed measures.</p><p>This study concludes that the rising air temperatures expected by climate change puts an unprecedented heat burden on Viennese inhabitants, which cannot easily be reduced by measures concerning buildings within the city itself. Additionally, measures such as planting trees to provide shade, regional water sensitive planning and global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to reduce temperature extremes are required.</p><p>We are now actively seeking to apply this set of tools to a wider set of cases in order to try to find effective solutions to projected warming resulting from climate change in urban areas.</p>

Analysis of heat wave features and urban heat island effect under climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Tian ◽  
Klaus Fraedrich ◽  
Feng Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Urban Heat Island Effect ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Island Effect ◽  
Urban Heat

<p>Extreme events such as heat waves occurred in urban have a large influence on human life due to population density. For urban areas, the urban heat island effect could further exacerbate the heat stress of heat waves. Meanwhile, the global climate change over the last few decades has changed the pattern and spatial distribution of local-scale extreme events. Commonly used climate models could capture broad-scale spatial changes in climate phenomena, but representing extreme events on local scales requires data with finer resolution. Here we present a deep learning based downscaling method to capture the localized near surface temperature features from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) framework. The downscaling is based on super-resolution image processing methods which could build relationships between coarse and fine resolution. This downscaling framework will then be applied to future emission scenarios over the period 2030 to 2100. The influence of future climate change on the occurrence of heat waves in urban and its interaction with urban heat island effect for ten most densely populated cities in China are studied. The heat waves are defined based on air temperature and the urban heat island is measured by the urban-rural difference in 2m-height air temperature. Improvements in data resolution enhanced the utility for assessing the surface air temperature record. Comparisons of urban heat waves from multiple climate models suggest that near-surface temperature trends and heat island effects are greatly affected by global warming. High resolution climate data offer the potential for further assessment of worldwide urban warming influences.</p>

scholarly journals Analysis of Urban Heat Island and Heat Waves Using Sentinel-3 Images: a Study of Andalusian Cities in Spain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Hidalgo García
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Multivariate Relationships ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
Wave Conditions

Abstract At present, understanding the synergies between the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) phenomenon and extreme climatic events entailing high mortality, i.e., heat waves, is a great challenge that must be faced to improve the quality of life in urban zones. The implementation of new mitigation and resilience measures in cities would serve to lessen the effects of heat waves and the economic cost they entail. In this research, the Land Surface Temperature (LST) and the SUHI were determined through Sentinel-3A and 3B images of the eight capitals of Andalusia (southern Spain) during the months of July and August of years 2019 and 2020. The objective was to determine possible synergies or interaction between the LST and SUHI, as well as between SUHI and heat waves, in a region classified as highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. For each Andalusian city, the atmospheric variables of ambient temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and direction were obtained from stations of the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET); the data were quantified and classified both in periods of normal environmental conditions and during heat waves. By means of Data Panel statistical analysis, the multivariate relationships were derived, determining which ones statistically influence the SUHI during heat wave periods. The results indicate that the LST and the mean SUHI obtained are statistically interacted and intensify under heat wave conditions. The greatest increases in daytime temperatures were seen for Sentinel-3A in cities by the coast (LST = 3.90 °C, SUHI = 1.44 °C) and for Sentinel-3B in cities located inland (LST = 2.85 °C, SUHI = 0.52 °C). The existence of statistically significant positive relationships above 99% (p < 0.000) between the SUHI and solar radiation, and between the SUHI and the direction of the wind, intensified in periods of heat wave, could be verified. An increase in the urban area affected by the SUHI under heat wave conditions is reported. Graphical Abstract

scholarly journals Cool Pavement Strategies for Urban Heat Island Mitigation in Suburban Phoenix, Arizona

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 4452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sushobhan Sen ◽  
Jeffery Roesler ◽  
Benjamin Ruddell ◽  
Ariane Middel
Keyword(s):  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Reflective Coating ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Artificial Surfaces ◽  
Urban Heat

Urban areas are characterized by a large proportion of artificial surfaces, such as concrete and asphalt, which absorb and store more heat than natural vegetation, leading to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Cool pavements, walls, and roofs have been suggested as a solution to mitigate UHI, but their effectiveness depends on local land-use patterns and surrounding urban forms. Meteorological data was collected using a mobile platform in the Power Ranch community of Gilbert, Arizona in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area, a region that experiences harsh summer temperatures. The warmest hour recorded during data collection was 13 August 2015 at 5:00 p.m., with a far-field air temperature of about 42 ∘ C and a low wind speed of 0.45 m/s from East-Southeast (ESE). An uncoupled pavement-urban canyon Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model was developed and validated to study the microclimate of the area. Five scenarios were studied to investigate the effects of different pavements on UHI, replacing all pavements with surfaces of progressively higher albedo: New asphalt concrete, typical concrete, reflective concrete, making only roofs and walls reflective, and finally replacing all artificial surfaces with a reflective coating. While new asphalt surfaces increased the surrounding 2 m air temperatures by up to 0.5 ∘ C, replacing aged asphalt with typical concrete with higher albedo did not significantly decrease it. Reflective concrete pavements decreased air temperature by 0.2–0.4 ∘ C and reflective roofs and walls by 0.4–0.7 ∘ C, while replacing all roofs, walls, and pavements with a reflective coating led to a more significant decrease, of up to 0.8–1.0 ∘ C. Residences downstream of major collector roads experienced a decreased air temperature at the higher end of these ranges. However, large areas of natural surfaces for this community had a significant effect on downstream air temperatures, which limits the UHI mitigation potential of these strategies.

Synergistic Interactions between Urban Heat Islands and Heat Waves: The Impact in Cities Is Larger than the Sum of Its Parts

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (9) ◽  
pp. 2051-2064 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Li ◽  
Elie Bou-Zeid
Keyword(s):  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Urban Heat Islands ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Heat Islands ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCities are well known to be hotter than the rural areas that surround them; this phenomenon is called the urban heat island. Heat waves are excessively hot periods during which the air temperatures of both urban and rural areas increase significantly. However, whether urban and rural temperatures respond in the same way to heat waves remains a critical unanswered question. In this study, a combination of observational and modeling analyses indicates synergies between urban heat islands and heat waves. That is, not only do heat waves increase the ambient temperatures, but they also intensify the difference between urban and rural temperatures. As a result, the added heat stress in cities will be even higher than the sum of the background urban heat island effect and the heat wave effect. Results presented here also attribute this added impact of heat waves on urban areas to the lack of surface moisture in urban areas and the low wind speed associated with heat waves. Given that heat waves are projected to become more frequent and that urban populations are substantially increasing, these findings underline the serious heat-related health risks facing urban residents in the twenty-first century. Adaptation and mitigation strategies will require joint efforts to reinvent the city, allowing for more green spaces and lesser disruption of the natural water cycle.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Effectiveness of Mitigation Options on Heat Stress for Sydney, Australia

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaoxiu Ma ◽  
Andy Pitman ◽  
Jiachuan Yang ◽  
Claire Carouge ◽  
Jason P. Evans ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Human Thermal Comfort ◽  
Ambient Air Temperature ◽  
Populations At Risk ◽  
Urban Heat

AbstractGlobal warming, in combination with the urban heat island effect, is increasing the temperature in cities. These changes increase the risk of heat stress for millions of city dwellers. Given the large populations at risk, a variety of mitigation strategies have been proposed to cool cities—including strategies that aim to reduce the ambient air temperature. This paper uses common heat stress metrics to evaluate the performance of several urban heat island mitigation strategies. The authors found that cooling via reducing net radiation or increasing irrigated vegetation in parks or on green roofs did reduce ambient air temperature. However, a lower air temperature did not necessarily lead to less heat stress because both temperature and humidity are important factors in determining human thermal comfort. Specifically, cooling the surface via evaporation through the use of irrigation increased humidity—consequently, the net impact on human comfort of any cooling was negligible. This result suggests that urban cooling strategies must aim to reduce ambient air temperatures without increasing humidity, for example via the deployment of solar panels over roofs or via cool roofs utilizing high albedos, in order to combat human heat stress in the urban environment.

scholarly journals Guidance to Measuring, Modelling and Monitoring the Canopy Layer Urban Heat Island

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Heinke Schluenzen ◽  
Sue Grimmond ◽  
Alexander Baklanov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Canopy Layer ◽  
Second Person ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
The Many ◽  
Definition Of

&lt;p&gt;Today, every second person lives in a city, and urbanization is continuously increasing. For 2050, it is to be expected that 2 out of 3 people will live in a city and thus the vast majority of the world's population will be affected not only by global climate change but also by locally induced climatic changes. The canopy layer urban heat island (CL-UHI) is one of the most well-known meteorological characteristics of urban areas found in cities small and large around the world. Its characteristics differ between cities, across a city and with time. The climate change induced warming cities experience is additionally impacted by the CL-UHI.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Despite the city-scale importance of CL-UHI, the WMO has not had any specific guidance on this. In response to the request of the 18th World Meteorological Congress (Resolutions 32 and 61) experts from WMO GAW (Global Atmosphere Watch) Urban Research Meteorology and Environment (GURME) initiated in 2020 preparation of a guidance on measuring, modelling and monitoring the CL-UHI. The guidance is a community-based development with 30 contributors providing expertise in all different aspects of CL-UHI. This includes a clear definition of what a CL-UHI is and clarifications of what it is not, how it develops (e.g. meteorological and morphological influences), methods to assess CL-UHI intensities (measurements,&amp;#160; modelling approaches) as well as when its assessment &amp;#160;(applications) is needed and how it can be reduced (or when it is beneficial).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The presentation will specifically focus on the key questions addressed in the guidance: what a CL-UHI is and what it is not, where CL-UHI values are relevant for and the many challenges that exist in simulating the CL-UHI with different models.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Urban Thermal Environment Dynamics

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1159
Author(s):  
Igor Žiberna ◽  
Nataša Pipenbaher ◽  
Daša Donša ◽  
Sonja Škornik ◽  
Mitja Kaligarič ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Thermal Environment ◽  
Urban Systems ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
Urban Thermal Environment ◽  
The Impact

The human population is increasing. The ongoing urbanization process, in conjunction with climate change, is causing larger environmental footprints. Consequently, quality of life in urban systems worldwide is under immense pressure. Here, the seasonal characteristics of Maribor’s urban thermal environment were studied from the perspectives of surface urban heat island (SUHI) and urban heat island (UHI) A remote sensing thermal imagery time series and in-situ measurements (stationary and mobile) were combined with select geospatial predictor variables to model this atmospheric phenomenon in its most intensive season (summer). Finally, CMIP6 climate change scenarios and models were considered, to predict future UHI intensity. Results indicate that Maribor’s UHI intensity maximum shifted from winter to spring and summer. The implemented generalized additive model (GAM) underestimates UHI intensity in some built-up parts of the study area and overestimates UHI intensity in green vegetated areas. However, by the end of the century, UHI magnitude could increase by more than 60% in the southern industrial part of the city. Such studies are of particular concern, in regards to the increasing frequency of heat waves due to climate change, which further increases the (already present) heat stress in cities across the globe.

scholarly journals STUDI PULAU PANAS PERKOTAAN DAN KAITANNYA DENGAN PERUBAHAN PARAMETER IKLIM SUHU DAN CURAH HUJAN MENGGUNAKAN CITRA SATELIT LANDSAT TM STUDI KASUS DKI JAKARTA DAN SEKITARNYA

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Halda Aditya Belgaman ◽  
Sri Lestari ◽  
Hilda Lestiana
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Satellite Image ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Surrounding Area ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
Climate Parameter ◽  
Landsat Satellite

Pulau panas adalah suatu fenomena dimana suhu udara di suatu daerah lebih tinggi daripada suhu udara terbuka di sekitarnya. Daerah urban (perkotaan) sering mempunyai suhu lebih tinggi 1-6 derajat Celsius dibandingkan daerah sekitarnya (daerah pinggiran/ rural). Fenomena inilah yang dikenal sebagai ”Pulau Panas perkotaan” atau ”Urban Heat Island” (UHI). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh fenomena pulau panas perkotaan terhadap parameter iklim terutama suhu dan curah hujan di daerahJakarta dan sekitarnya. Data yang digunakan pada tugas akhir ini adalah data curah hujan dan temperatur udara harian pada 5 stasiun pengamatan iklim, periode Januari 1991 – Desember 2001 sebagai data permukaan. Citra satelit Landsat 7 ETM+ path / row 122/064 akuisisi tanggal 15/07/2001 band 5,4,2 digunakan untuk menganalisis tutupan lahan dan band 6 digunakan untuk distribusi temperatur permukaan. Hasil menunjukkan nilai temperatur permukaan Kota Jakarta dan sekitarnya berada antara 15.07˚C hingga 33.28˚C. Lokasi pulau panas perkotaan terdapat di daerah Jakarta pusat dan Jakarta utara, dengan perbedaan temperatur sebesar 3˚C dibandingkan dengan daerah sekitarnya.Tutupan lahan yang terdapat di lokasi tersebut merupakan lahan terbangun yang terdiri dari bangunan perumahan, perkantoran, dan jalan raya. Perhitungan nilai korelasi Spearman antara data temperatur udara dari lima stasiun pengamatan dengan nilai piksel temperatur permukaan memperlihatkan adanya korelasi positif antara dua variabel tersebut yang ditunjukkan oleh indeks korelasi sebesar 0.6.Dengan persamaan regresi diperoleh citra temperatur permukaan di seluruh daerah pengamatan yang hasilnya menggambarkan bahwa lokasi pulau panas perkotaan sangat berpengaruh terhadap distribusi temperatur udara di atasnya.Heat island was a phenomenon where the temperature of air in one region higher than the temperature of the open air around it. Urban areas often had the temperature higher 1-6 Celsius when compared the area of surrounding area (the area of outskirts/rural). This phenomenon that was known as ”Pulau Panas Perkotaan” or ”Urban Heat Island” (UHI). This Research aimed to knowing influence of the heat islands of urban areas to climate parameter especially the temperature and the rainfall in the Jakarta and surrounding area. Data used in this research was rainfall data and daily air temperaturefrom 5 climate observation stations, within time period from January 1991 to December 2001 as the surface data. The Landsat satellite image 7 ETM+ path/row 122/064 acquisition date 15/07/2001, band 5, 4, 2 was used to analyze the cover of land and the band 6 was used for the distribution of surface temperature was based on the pixels value.Results showed the value of surface temperature in Jakarta and surrounding area was between 15.07˚C through to 33.28˚C. Location of heat island were in the centre Jakarta and north Jakarta, with the difference of the temperature as big as 3˚C with thesurrounding area. The land cover in this location were the housing building, the office complex, and the highway. Calculation of Spearman correlation value between the air temperature and surface temperature showed the existence of the positive correlation between two variables that it was demonstrated by the correlation index 0.6. From the regression equation we get the interpolated air temperature in Jakarta area.

scholarly journals Future Climate Change Impact on Urban Heat Island in Two Mediterranean Cities Based on High-Resolution Regional Climate Simulations

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 884
Author(s):  
Stavros Ch. Keppas ◽  
Sofia Papadogiannaki ◽  
Daphne Parliari ◽  
Serafim Kontos ◽  
Anastasia Poupkou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
Change Impact

The Mediterranean is recognized among the most responsive regions to climate change, with annual temperatures projected to increase by 1–5 °C until 2100. Large cities may experience an additional stress discomfort due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. In the present study, the WRF-ARW numerical weather prediction model was used to investigate the climate change impact on UHI for two Mediterranean cities, Rome and Thessaloniki. For this purpose, three 5-year time-slice simulations were conducted (2006–2010, 2046–2050, 2096–2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario, with a spatial resolution of 2 km. In order to comprehensively investigate the urban microclimate, we analyze future simulation data across sections crossing urban/non-urban areas, and after grouping them into three classes depending on the location of the grid cells. The urban areas of both cities present increased average minimum temperature (Tmin) in winter/summer compared to other rural areas, with an UHI of ~+1.5–3 °C on average at night/early morning. Considering UHI under future climate change, we found no significant variations (~±0.2 °C). Finally, we found that the numbers of days with Tmin ≥ 20 °C will mostly increase in urban coastal areas until 2100, while the largest increase of minimum Discomfort Index (DImin) is expected in urban low-ground areas.

Human thermal comfort in Local climate zones of Berlin

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ines Langer ◽  
Alexander Pasternack ◽  
Uwe Ulbrich
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Human Thermal Comfort ◽  
Local Climate Zones ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
The City

&lt;p&gt;Urban areas show higher nocturnal temperature comparing to rural areas, which is denoted by urban heat island. This effect can intensify the impact of global warming in urban areas especially during heat waves, that leads to higher energy demand for cooling the building and higher thermal stress for residents.&amp;#160;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The aim of this study is to identify the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect during the heat spell 2018 and 2019 in order to calculated human thermal comfort for Berlin. Berlin, the capital city of Germany covers an area of 892km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; and its population is growing, therefore more residential areas will be planned in future through higher building. The methodology of this research is to divide Berlin into Local Climate Zones (LCZ's) regarding the concept of Stewart &amp; Oke (2012). Then to evaluate the accuracy of this concept using 30 microclimate stations. Estimating the magnitude of urban heat island and its seasonal changes in combination with human thermal perception in different LCZ during summer time is another objective of this research.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ten LCZ's for Berlin were selected, as class 1 (compact high rise), class 3 (compact low rise), class 7 (lightweight low-rise), class C (bush, scrub), class E (bare rock or paved) and class F (bare soil or sand) don't exist in Berlin. Class A (dense trees) is with a fraction of 18.6% in a good agreement with the percentage of dense trees reported from the city administration of Berlin (18.4%), class G (water) has a coverage of 5.1% through our classification instead of 6.7% reported by the city administration. In summary, the LCZ 1-10 cover 59.3% (more than half) of the city area.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Regarding temperature measurements, which represent a hot summer day with calm wind and clear sky the difference of Local Climate Zones will be calculated and the temperature variability in every LCZ's regarding sky view factor values show the hot spot of the city.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The vulnerability of LCZ's to heat stress will be ranked and discussed regarding ventilation and other factors.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Literature&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Matzarakis, A. Mayer, H., Iziomon, M. (1999) Applications of a universal thermal index: Physiological equivalent temperature: Intern. J. of Biomet 43 (2), 76-84.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Stewart, I.D., Oke, T.R. (2012) Local climate zones for urban temperature studies. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 93 1879-1900. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00019.1.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

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