Mapping trends in woody cover throughout Namibian savannah with MODIS seasonal phenological metrics and field inventory data
<p>Woody vegetation is an integral component of Namibian savannahs and essential to people&#8217;s livelihoods. Savannah vegetation varies in response to climatic, environmental and anthropogenic factors, moreover, its constituent plant functional types (woody and herbaceous vegetation) exhibit divergent phenological characteristics. Together, these make accurate estimates of changes in tree and shrub cover densities over time difficult to achieve. Two contrasting land degradation processes affecting woody vegetation cover are widespread: (i) the replacement of the herbaceous layer with hardy shrubs (shrub encroachment) and (ii) the loss of forest cover (deforestation). Both processes impact a range of ecosystem services, from local (i.e. local forage and timber resources) to global scales (i.e. biome carbon sequestration). To map trends in woody cover, field observations from 484 sample plots were used to model percentage woody cover as a function of seasonal phenological metrics derived from the MODIS NDVI time-series. An independent validation dataset found a RMSE of 19.73% and an R2 of 0.93%. Trends in modelled woody cover were assessed in relation to land-use, population density and mean annual precipitation. An overall declining trend was identified, with certain land-uses, including protected areas, revealing a declining trend. Significant negative trends covered 11.80% of the study area, while 9.20% underwent positive trends. Trends in woody vegetation cover are mostly unrelated to those of precipitation, except for certain areas which show high coefficients of determination, and imply the presence of predominantly herbaceous vegetation. As such, this study presents a novel method for the identification of grasslands in Namibia.</p>