Modelling aspects of the sulfate aerosol evolution after recent volcanic activity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Brodowsky ◽  
Timofei Sukhodolov ◽  
Aryeh Feinberg ◽  
Michael Höpfner ◽  
Thomas Peter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Sulfate Aerosol ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Free Running ◽  
Volcanic Emission ◽  
The Impact

<p>Volcanic activity is one of the main natural climate forcings and therefore an accurate representation of volcanic aerosols in global climate models is essential. However, direct modelling of sulfur chemistry, sulfate aerosol microphysics and transport is a complex task involving many uncertainties including those related to the volcanic emission magnitude, vertical shape of the plume, and observations of atmospheric sulfur. This study aims to investigate some of these uncertainties and to analyse the performance of the aerosol-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AERv2 for three medium-sized volcanic eruptions from Kasatochi in 2008, Sarychev in 2009 and Nabro in 2011. In particular, we investigate the impact of different estimates for the initial volcanic plume height and its SO2 content on the stratospheric aerosol burden. The influence of internal model variability and of modelled dynamics is addressed by three free-running simulations and two nudged simulations at different vertical resolutions. Comparing the modelled evolution of the stratospheric aerosol loading and its spread with the Brewer-Dobson-Circulation (BDC) to satellite measurements reveals in general a very good performance of SOCOL-AERv2 during the considered period. However, the large spread in emission estimates logically leads to significant differences in the modelled aerosol burden. This spread results from both the uncertainty in the total emitted mass of sulfur as well as its vertical distribution relative to the tropopause. An additional source of modelled uncertainty is the tropopause height, which varies among the free-running simulations. Furthermore, the validation is complicated by disagreement between different observational datasets. Nudging effects on the tropospheric clouds were found to affect the tropospheric SO2 oxidation paths and the cross-tropopause transport, leading to increased background burdens both in the troposphere and the stratosphere. This effect can be reduced by nudging only horizontal winds but not temperature. A higher vertical resolution of 90 levels (as opposed to 39 in the standard version) increases the stratospheric residence time of sulfate aerosol after low-latitude eruptions by reducing the diffusion speed out of the tropical reservoir. We conclude that the model's uncertainties can be largely defined by both its set-up as by the volcanic emission parameters.</p>

Revisiting the Krakatau 1883 Volcanic Aerosol Dispersal 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Castro ◽  
Tushar Mittal ◽  
Stephen Self
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Pinatubo Eruption ◽  
The Impact

<p>The 1883 Krakatau eruption is one of the most well-known historical volcanic eruptions due to its significant global climate impact as well as first recorded observations of various aerosol associated optical and physical phenomena. Although much work has been done on the former by comparison of global climate model predictions/ simulations with instrumental and proxy climate records, the latter has surprisingly not been studied in similar detail. In particular, there is a wealth of observations of vivid red sunsets, blue suns, and other similar features, that can be used to analyze the spatio-temporal dispersal of volcanic aerosols in summer to winter 1883. Thus, aerosol cloud dispersal after the Krakatau eruption can be estimated, bolstered by aerosol cloud behavior as monitored by satellite-based instrument observations after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. This is one of a handful of large historic eruptions where this analysis can be done (using non-climate proxy methods). In this study, we model particle trajectories of the Krakatau eruption cloud using the Hysplit trajectory model and compare our results with our compiled observational dataset (principally using Verbeek 1884, the Royal Society report, and Kiessling 1884).</p><p>In particular, we explore the effect of different atmospheric states - the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) which impacts zonal movement of the stratospheric volcanic plume - to estimate the phase of the QBO in 1883 required for a fast-moving westward cloud. Since this alone is unable to match the observed latitudinal spread of the aerosols, we then explore the impact of an  umbrella cloud (2000 km diameter) that almost certainly formed during such a large eruption. A large umbrella cloud, spreading over ~18 degrees within the duration of the climax of the eruption (6-8 hours), can lead to much quicker latitudinal spread than a point source (vent). We will discuss the results of the combined model (umbrella cloud and correct QBO phase) with historical accounts and observations, as well as previous work on the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We also consider the likely impacts of water on aerosol concentrations and the relevance of this process for eruptions with possible significant seawater interactions, like Krakatau. We posit that the role of umbrella clouds is an under-appreciated, but significant, process for beginning to model the climatic impacts of large volcanic eruptions.</p>

scholarly journals The blue suns of 1831: was the eruption of Ferdinandea, near Sicily, one of the largest volcanic climate forcing events of the nineteenth century?

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 2607-2632
Author(s):  
Christopher Garrison ◽  
Christopher Kilburn ◽  
David Smart ◽  
Stephen Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Scientific Data ◽  
Sulfate Aerosol ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Aerosol Plume

Abstract. One of the largest climate forcing eruptions of the nineteenth century was, until recently, believed to have taken place at the Babuyan Claro volcano, in the Philippines, in 1831. However, a recent investigation found no reliable evidence of such an eruption, suggesting that the 1831 eruption must have taken place elsewhere. We here present our newly compiled dataset of reported observations of a blue, purple and green sun in August 1831, which we use to reconstruct the transport of a stratospheric aerosol plume from that eruption. The source of the aerosol plume is identified as the eruption of Ferdinandea, which took place about 50 km off the south-west coast of Sicily (37.1∘ N, 12.7∘ E), in July and August 1831. The modest magnitude of this eruption, assigned a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of 3, has commonly caused it to be discounted or overlooked when identifying the likely source of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol in 1831. It is proposed, however, that convective instability in the troposphere contributed to aerosol reaching the stratosphere and that the aerosol load was enhanced by addition of a sedimentary sulfur component to the volcanic plume. Thus, one of the largest climate forcing volcanic eruptions of the nineteenth century would effectively have been hiding in plain sight, arguably “lowering the bar” for the types of eruptions capable of having a substantial climate forcing impact. Prior estimates of the mass of stratospheric sulfate aerosol responsible for the 1831 Greenland ice core sulfate deposition peaks which have assumed a source eruption at a low-latitude site will, therefore, have been overstated. The example presented in this paper serves as a useful reminder that VEI values were not intended to be reliably correlated with eruption sulfur yields unless supplemented with compositional analyses. It also underlines that eye-witness accounts of historical geophysical events should not be neglected as a source of valuable scientific data.

scholarly journals Climate change modulates the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing from tropical eruptions

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Aubry ◽  
John Staunton-Sykes ◽  
Lauren R. Marshall ◽  
Jim Haywood ◽  
Nathan Luke Abraham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Sulfate Aerosol ◽  
Column Height ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Eruptive Column ◽  
Column Dynamics

AbstractExplosive volcanic eruptions affect climate, but how climate change affects the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing remains unexplored. We combine an eruptive column model with an aerosol-climate model to show that the stratospheric aerosol optical depth perturbation from frequent moderate-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Nabro 2011) will be reduced by 75% in a high-end warming scenario compared to today, a consequence of future tropopause height rise and unchanged eruptive column height. In contrast, global-mean radiative forcing, stratospheric warming and surface cooling from infrequent large-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Mt. Pinatubo 1991) will be exacerbated by 30%, 52 and 15% in the future, respectively. These changes are driven by an aerosol size decrease, mainly caused by the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and an increase in eruptive column height. Quantifying changes in both eruptive column dynamics and aerosol lifecycle is therefore key to assessing the climate response to future eruptions.

scholarly journals Model simulations of the chemical and aerosol microphysical evolution of the Sarychev Peak 2009 eruption cloud compared to in situ and satellite observations

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 3223-3247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thibaut Lurton ◽  
Fabrice Jégou ◽  
Gwenaël Berthet ◽  
Jean-Baptiste Renard ◽  
Lieven Clarisse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Particle Size ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Stratospheric Chemistry ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sarychev Peak

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions impact climate through the injection of sulfur dioxide (SO2), which is oxidized to form sulfuric acid aerosol particles that can enhance the stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD). Besides large-magnitude eruptions, moderate-magnitude eruptions such as Kasatochi in 2008 and Sarychev Peak in 2009 can have a significant impact on stratospheric aerosol and hence climate. However, uncertainties remain in quantifying the atmospheric and climatic impacts of the 2009 Sarychev Peak eruption due to limitations in previous model representations of volcanic aerosol microphysics and particle size, whilst biases have been identified in satellite estimates of post-eruption SAOD. In addition, the 2009 Sarychev Peak eruption co-injected hydrogen chloride (HCl) alongside SO2, whose potential stratospheric chemistry impacts have not been investigated to date. We present a study of the stratospheric SO2–particle–HCl processing and impacts following Sarychev Peak eruption, using the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) – Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) sectional aerosol microphysics model (with no a priori assumption on particle size). The Sarychev Peak 2009 eruption injected 0.9 Tg of SO2 into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), enhancing the aerosol load in the Northern Hemisphere. The post-eruption evolution of the volcanic SO2 in space and time are well reproduced by the model when compared to Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite data. Co-injection of 27 Gg HCl causes a lengthening of the SO2 lifetime and a slight delay in the formation of aerosols, and acts to enhance the destruction of stratospheric ozone and mono-nitrogen oxides (NOx) compared to the simulation with volcanic SO2 only. We therefore highlight the need to account for volcanic halogen chemistry when simulating the impact of eruptions such as Sarychev on stratospheric chemistry. The model-simulated evolution of effective radius (reff) reflects new particle formation followed by particle growth that enhances reff to reach up to 0.2 µm on zonal average. Comparisons of the model-simulated particle number and size distributions to balloon-borne in situ stratospheric observations over Kiruna, Sweden, in August and September 2009, and over Laramie, USA, in June and November 2009 show good agreement and quantitatively confirm the post-eruption particle enhancement. We show that the model-simulated SAOD is consistent with that derived from the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) when both the saturation bias of OSIRIS and the fact that extinction profiles may terminate well above the tropopause are taken into account. Previous modelling studies (involving assumptions on particle size) that reported agreement with (biased) post-eruption estimates of SAOD derived from OSIRIS likely underestimated the climate impact of the 2009 Sarychev Peak eruption.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virgílio A. Bento ◽  
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Rita M. Cardoso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spring Maximum

AbstractThe impact of climate change on wheat and barley yields in two regions of the Iberian Peninsula is here examined. Regression models are developed by using EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations, forced by ERA-Interim, with monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures and monthly accumulated precipitation as predictors. Additionally, RCM simulations forced by different global climate models for the historical period (1972–2000) and mid-of-century (2042–2070; under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are analysed. Results point to different regional responses of wheat and barley. In the southernmost regions, results indicate that the main yield driver is spring maximum temperature, while further north a larger dependence on spring precipitation and early winter maximum temperature is observed. Climate change seems to induce severe yield losses in the southern region, mainly due to an increase in spring maximum temperature. On the contrary, a yield increase is projected in the northern regions, with the main driver being early winter warming that stimulates earlier growth. These results warn on the need to implement sustainable agriculture policies, and on the necessity of regional adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals The role of tropical volcanic eruptions in exacerbating Indian droughts

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suvarna Fadnavis ◽  
Rolf Müller ◽  
Tanusri Chakraborty ◽  
T. P. Sabin ◽  
Anton Laakso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Indian Region ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

AbstractThe Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is vital for the livelihood of millions of people in the Indian region; droughts caused by monsoon failures often resulted in famines. Large volcanic eruptions have been linked with reductions in ISMR, but the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. Here, using 145-year (1871–2016) records of volcanic eruptions and ISMR, we show that ISMR deficits prevail for two years after moderate and large (VEI > 3) tropical volcanic eruptions; this is not the case for extra-tropical eruptions. Moreover, tropical volcanic eruptions strengthen El Niño and weaken La Niña conditions, further enhancing Indian droughts. Using climate-model simulations of the 2011 Nabro volcanic eruption, we show that eruption induced an El Niño like warming in the central Pacific for two consecutive years due to Kelvin wave dissipation triggered by the eruption. This El Niño like warming in the central Pacific led to a precipitation reduction in the Indian region. In addition, solar dimming caused by the volcanic plume in 2011 reduced Indian rainfall.

scholarly journals Improved tropospheric and stratospheric sulfur cycle in the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3863-3887 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aryeh Feinberg ◽  
Timofei Sukhodolov ◽  
Bei-Ping Luo ◽  
Eugene Rozanov ◽  
Lenny H. E. Winkel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Sulfur Cycle ◽  
Sulfate Aerosol ◽  
Tropospheric Chemistry ◽  
Sulfur Deposition ◽  
Aerosol Chemistry ◽  
Deposition Fluxes ◽  
Aerosol Model

Abstract. SOCOL-AERv1 was developed as an aerosol–chemistry–climate model to study the stratospheric sulfur cycle and its influence on climate and the ozone layer. It includes a sectional aerosol model that tracks the sulfate particle size distribution in 40 size bins, between 0.39 nm and 3.2 µm. Sheng et al. (2015) showed that SOCOL-AERv1 successfully matched observable quantities related to stratospheric aerosol. In the meantime, SOCOL-AER has undergone significant improvements and more observational datasets have become available. In producing SOCOL-AERv2 we have implemented several updates to the model: adding interactive deposition schemes, improving the sulfate mass and particle number conservation, and expanding the tropospheric chemistry scheme. We compare the two versions of the model with background stratospheric sulfate aerosol observations, stratospheric aerosol evolution after Pinatubo, and ground-based sulfur deposition networks. SOCOL-AERv2 shows similar levels of agreement as SOCOL-AERv1 with satellite-measured extinctions and in situ optical particle counter (OPC) balloon flights. The volcanically quiescent total stratospheric aerosol burden simulated in SOCOL-AERv2 has increased from 109 Gg of sulfur (S) to 160 Gg S, matching the newly available satellite estimate of 165 Gg S. However, SOCOL-AERv2 simulates too high cross-tropopause transport of tropospheric SO2 and/or sulfate aerosol, leading to an overestimation of lower stratospheric aerosol. Due to the current lack of upper tropospheric SO2 measurements and the neglect of organic aerosol in the model, the lower stratospheric bias of SOCOL-AERv2 was not further improved. Model performance under volcanically perturbed conditions has also undergone some changes, resulting in a slightly shorter volcanic aerosol lifetime after the Pinatubo eruption. With the improved deposition schemes of SOCOL-AERv2, simulated sulfur wet deposition fluxes are within a factor of 2 of measured deposition fluxes at 78 % of the measurement stations globally, an agreement which is on par with previous model intercomparison studies. Because of these improvements, SOCOL-AERv2 will be better suited to studying changes in atmospheric sulfur deposition due to variations in climate and emissions.

scholarly journals The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): Experimental design and forcing input data

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Zanchettin ◽  
Myriam Khodri ◽  
Claudia Timmreck ◽  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
Anja Schmidt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Climatic Response ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the model intercomparison project on the climate response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol dataset for each experiment to eliminate differences in the applied volcanic forcing, and defines a set of initial conditions to determine how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically-forced responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.

scholarly journals Evidence for the predictability of changes in the stratospheric aerosol size following volcanic eruptions of diverse magnitudes using space-based instruments

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larry W. Thomason ◽  
Mahesh Kovilakam ◽  
Anja Schmidt ◽  
Christian von Savigny ◽  
Travis Knepp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Size Distribution ◽  
Extinction Coefficient ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Aerosol Size Distribution ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Aerosol Extinction ◽  
Volcanic Event ◽  
Aerosol Extinction Coefficient

Abstract. An analysis of multiwavelength stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficient data from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and III/ISS instruments is used to demonstrate a coherent relationship between the perturbation in extinction coefficient in an eruption's main aerosol layer and an apparent change in aerosol size distribution that spans multiple orders of magnitude in the stratospheric impact of a volcanic event. The relationship is measurement-based and does not rely on assumptions about the aerosol size distribution. We note limitations on this analysis including that the presence of significant amounts of ash in the main aerosol layer may significantly modulate these results. Despite this limitation, these findings represent a unique opportunity to verify the performance of interactive aerosol models used in Global Climate Models and Earth System Model and may suggest an avenue for improving aerosol extinction coefficient measurements from single channel observations such the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System as they rely on a priori assumptions about particle size.

scholarly journals Evidence for the predictability of changes in the stratospheric aerosol size following volcanic eruptions of diverse magnitudes using space-based instruments

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 1143-1158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larry W. Thomason ◽  
Mahesh Kovilakam ◽  
Anja Schmidt ◽  
Christian von Savigny ◽  
Travis Knepp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extinction Coefficient ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Single Channel ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Aerosol Size Distribution ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Aerosol Extinction ◽  
Aerosol Extinction Coefficient

Abstract. An analysis of multiwavelength stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficient data from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and III/ISS instruments is used to demonstrate a coherent relationship between the perturbation in extinction coefficient in an eruption's main aerosol layer and the wavelength dependence of that perturbation. This relationship spans multiple orders of magnitude in the aerosol extinction coefficient of stratospheric impact of volcanic events. The relationship is measurement-based and does not rely on assumptions about the aerosol size distribution. We note limitations on this analysis including that the presence of significant amounts of ash in the main sulfuric acid aerosol layer and other factors may significantly modulate these results. Despite these limitations, the findings suggest an avenue for improving aerosol extinction coefficient measurements from single-channel observations such as the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System as they rely on a prior assumptions about particle size. They may also represent a distinct avenue for the comparison of observations with interactive aerosol models used in global climate models and Earth system models.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document