Comparing and Advancing Approaches to Long-Term Flood Projection

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine Schlef ◽  
Baptiste François ◽  
Casey Brown
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Hydrologic Simulation ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Simulated Climate ◽  
Historic Record

<p>How should design flood magnitudes be estimated under climate change? Apart from assuming stationarity, the two main approaches are hydrologic simulation and informed-parameter, which is generally based on either trend or climate covariates. Here, we compare these approaches across a large set of hydro-climatologically diverse basins located throughout the contiguous United States, splitting the historic record into a calibration and validation time period. We evaluate performance when the approaches are forced with observed climate as well as simulated climate from general circulation models. We also investigate how the strengths of the climate informed and hydrologic simulation approaches can be combined to improve projections; here, we use the outputs of hydrologic simulation as covariates in the climate informed approach. The results provide a quantitative perspective on key long-term flood projection issues and provide a route forward to improving projections given the identified strengths and weaknesses of each approach.</p>

scholarly journals Interhemispheric differences of mesosphere/lower thermosphere winds and tides investigated from three whole atmosphere models and meteor radar observations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunter Stober ◽  
Ales Kuchar ◽  
Dimitry Pokhotelov ◽  
Huixin Liu ◽  
Han-Li Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Meteor Radar ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Seasonal Characteristics

Abstract. Long-term and continuous observations of mesospheric/lower thermospheric winds are rare, but they are important to investigate climatological changes at these altitudes on time scales of several years, covering a solar cycle and longer. Such long time series are a natural heritage of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere climate, and they are valuable to compare climate models or long term runs of general circulation models (GCMs). Here we present a climatological comparison of wind observations from six meteor radars at two conjugate latitudes to validate the corresponding mean winds and atmospheric diurnal and semidiurnal tides from three GCMs, namely Ground-to-Topside Model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA), Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extension (Specified Dynamics) (WACCM-X(SD)) and Upper Atmosphere ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (UA-ICON) model. Our results indicate that there are interhemispheric differences in the seasonal characteristics of the diurnal and semidiurnal tide. There also are some differences in the mean wind climatologies of the models and the observations. Our results indicate that GAIA shows a reasonable agreement with the meteor radar observations during the winter season, whereas WACCM-X(SD) shows a better agreement with the radars for the hemispheric zonal summer wind reversal, which is more consistent with the meteor radar observations. The free running UA-ICON tends to show similar winds and tides compared to WACCM-X(SD).

Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Tadashi Suetsugi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

scholarly journals Historical droughts in Mediterranean regions during the last 500 years: a data/model approach

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 355-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Brewer ◽  
S. Alleaume ◽  
J. Guiot ◽  
A. Nicault
Keyword(s):  
Drought Stress ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Distance Measure ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Simulated Climate

Abstract. We present here a new method for comparing the output of General Circulation Models (GCMs) with proxy-based reconstructions, using time series of reconstructed and simulated climate parameters. The method uses k-means clustering to allow comparison between different periods that have similar spatial patterns, and a fuzzy logic-based distance measure in order to take reconstruction errors into account. The method has been used to test two coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs over the Mediterranean region for the last 500 years, using an index of drought stress, the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The results showed that, whilst no model exactly simulated the reconstructed changes, all simulations were an improvement over using the mean climate, and a good match was found after 1650 with a model run that took into account changes in volcanic forcing, solar irradiance, and greenhouse gases. A more detailed investigation of the output of this model showed the existence of a set of atmospheric circulation patterns linked to the patterns of drought stress: 1) a blocking pattern over northern Europe linked to dry conditions in the south prior to the Little Ice Age (LIA) and during the 20th century; 2) a NAO-positive like pattern with increased westerlies during the LIA; 3) a NAO-negative like period shown in the model prior to the LIA, but that occurs most frequently in the data during the LIA. The results of the comparison show the improvement in simulated climate as various forcings are included and help to understand the atmospheric changes that are linked to the observed reconstructed climate changes.

scholarly journals Uncertainties in satellite remote sensing of aerosols and impact on monitoring its long-term trend: a review and perspective

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 2755-2770 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Li ◽  
X. Zhao ◽  
R. Kahn ◽  
M. Mishchenko ◽  
L. Remer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Noaa Avhrr ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Aerosol Parameters ◽  
Climate Studies ◽  
Cloud Screening

Abstract. As a result of increasing attention paid to aerosols in climate studies, numerous global satellite aerosol products have been generated. Aerosol parameters and underlining physical processes are now incorporated in many general circulation models (GCMs) in order to account for their direct and indirect effects on the earth's climate, through their interactions with the energy and water cycles. There exists, however, an outstanding problem that these satellite products have substantial discrepancies, that must be lowered substantially for narrowing the range of the estimates of aerosol's climate effects. In this paper, numerous key uncertain factors in the retrieval of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are articulated for some widely used and relatively long satellite aerosol products including the AVHRR, TOMS, MODIS, MISR, and SeaWiFS. We systematically review the algorithms developed for these sensors in terms of four key elements that influence the quality of passive satellite aerosol retrieval: calibration, cloud screening, classification of aerosol types, and surface effects. To gain further insights into these uncertain factors, the NOAA AVHRR data are employed to conduct various tests, which help estimate the ranges of uncertainties incurred by each of the factors. At the end, recommendations are made to cope with these issues and to produce a consistent and unified aerosol database of high quality for both environment monitoring and climate studies.

The impact of denying sea ice information on the predictability of atmospheric processes over the Arctic and at mid-latitude regions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leandro Ponsoni ◽  
Daniela Flocco ◽  
François Massonnet ◽  
Steve Delhaye ◽  
Ed Hawkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atmospheric Processes ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
The Impact

<p>In this work, we make use of an inter-model comparison and of a perfect model approach, in which model outputs are used as true reference states, to assess the impact that denying sea ice information has on the prediction of atmospheric processes, both over the Arctic and at mid-latitude regions. To do so, two long-term control runs (longer than 250 years) were generated with two state-of-the-art General Circulation Models (GCM), namely EC-Earth and HadGEM. From these two reference states, we have identified three different years in which the Arctic sea ice volume (SIV) was (i) maximum, (ii) minimum and (iii) a representative case for the mean state. By departing from each of these three dates (not necessarily the same for the two models), we generated a set of experiments in which the control runs are restarted both from original and climatological sea ice conditions. Here, climatological sea ice conditions are estimated as the time-average of sea ice parameters from the respective long-term control runs. The experiments are 1-year long and all of them start in January when ice is still thin, snow depth is small, air-ocean temperatures contrast the most and, therefore, the heat conductive flux in sea ice (at the surface) is nearly maximum. To robustly separate the response to degrading the initial sea ice state from background internal variability, each of the two counterfactual experiments (reference and climatological) consists of 50 ensembles members. Threstatedese ensembles are generated by adding small random perturbations to the sea surface temperature (EC-Earth) or to the air temperature (HadGEM) fields. Preliminary results reinforce the importance of having the right sea ice state for improving the (sub-)seasonal prediction of atmospheric parameters (e.g., 2m-temperature and geopotential) and circulation (e.g., Westerlies and Jet Stream) not only over the Arctic, but also at mid-latitude regions.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing and Improving the Local Added Value of WRF for Wind Downscaling

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (7) ◽  
pp. 1556-1568 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. García-Díez ◽  
J. Fernández ◽  
D. San-Martín ◽  
S. Herrera ◽  
J. M. Gutiérrez
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Slight Modification ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Resolution Model

AbstractLimited area models (LAMs) are widely used tools to downscale the wind speed forecasts issued by general circulation models. However, only a few studies have systematically analyzed the value added by the LAMs to the coarser-resolution-model wind. The goal of the present work is to investigate how added value depends on the resolution of the driving global model. With this aim, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to downscale three different global datasets (GFS, ERA-Interim, and NCEP–NCAR) to a 9-km-resolution grid for a 1-yr period. Model results were compared with a large set of surface observations, including land station and offshore buoy data. Substantial biases were found at this resolution over mountainous terrain, and a slight modification to the subgrid orographic drag parameterization was introduced to alleviate the problem. It was found that, at this resolution, WRF is able to produce significant added value with respect to the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and ERA-Interim but only a small amount of added value with respect to GFS forecasts. Results suggest that, as model resolution increases, traditional skill scores tend to saturate. Thus, adding value to high-resolution global models becomes significantly more difficult.

Improving the Prediction of Winter Precipitation and Temperature over the Continental United States: Role of the ENSO State in Developing Multimodel Combinations

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (6) ◽  
pp. 2447-2468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naresh Devineni ◽  
A. Sankarasubramanian
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Skill Levels ◽  
Higher Weights ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation Models ◽  
Multimodel Ensembles ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract Recent research into seasonal climate prediction has focused on combining multiple atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) to develop multimodel ensembles. A new approach to combining multiple GCMs is proposed by analyzing the skill levels of candidate models contingent on the relevant predictor(s) state. To demonstrate this approach, historical simulations of winter (December–February, DJF) precipitation and temperature from seven GCMs were combined by evaluating their skill—represented by mean square error (MSE)—over similar predictor (DJF Niño-3.4) conditions. The MSE estimates are converted into weights for each GCM for developing multimodel tercile probabilities. A total of six multimodel schemes are considered that include combinations based on pooling of ensembles as well as on the long-term skill of the models. To ensure the improved skill exhibited by the multimodel scheme is statistically significant, rigorous hypothesis tests were performed comparing the skill of multimodels with each individual model’s skill. The multimodel combination contingent on Niño-3.4 shows improved skill particularly for regions whose winter precipitation and temperature exhibit significant correlation with Niño-3.4. Analyses of these weights also show that the proposed multimodel combination methodology assigns higher weights for GCMs and lesser weights for climatology during El Niño and La Niña conditions. On the other hand, because of the limited skill of GCMs during neutral Niño-3.4 conditions, the methodology assigns higher weights for climatology resulting in improved skill from the multimodel combinations. Thus, analyzing GCMs’ skill contingent on the relevant predictor state provides an alternate approach for multimodel combinations such that years with limited skill could be replaced with climatology.

CONTINUUM CLIMATE VARIABILITY: LONG-TERM MEMORY, SCALING, AND 1/F-NOISE

2009 ◽  
Vol 23 (28n29) ◽  
pp. 5403-5416 ◽  
Author(s):  
KLAUS FRAEDRICH ◽  
RICHARD BLENDER ◽  
XIUHUA ZHU
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Models ◽  
Ocean General Circulation ◽  
One Year

Continuum temperature variability represents the response of the Earth's climate to deterministic external forcing. Scaling regimes are observed which range from hours to millennia with low frequency fluctuations characterizing long-term memory. The presence of 1/f power spectra in weather and climate is noteworthy: (i) In the tropical atmosphere 1/f scaling ranging from hours to weeks is found for several variables; it emerges as superposition of uncorrelated pulses with individual 1/f spectra. (ii) The daily discharge of the Yangtze shows 1/f within one week to one year, although the precipitation spectrum is white. (iii) Beyond one year mid-latitude sea surface temperatures reveal 1/f scaling in large parts of the global ocean. The spectra can be simulated by complex atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and understood as a two layer heat diffusion process forced by an uncorrelated stochastic atmospheric. Long-term memory on time scales up to millennia are the global sea surface temperatures and the Greenland ice core records (GISP2, GRIP) with δ18 O temperature proxy data during the Holocene. Complex atmosphere ocean general circulation models reproduce this behavior quantitatively up to millennia without solar variability, interacting land-ice and vegetation components.

scholarly journals Radiative Effects of Cloud Horizontal Inhomogeneity and Vertical Overlap Identified from a Monthlong Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (11) ◽  
pp. 4105-4112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoqing Wu ◽  
Xin-Zhong Liang
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Radiative Fluxes ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model ◽  
Horizontal Inhomogeneity ◽  
Heating Profiles

Abstract The representation of subgrid horizontal and vertical variability of clouds in radiation schemes remains a major challenge for general circulation models (GCMs) due to the lack of cloud-scale observations and incomplete physical understanding. The development of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) in the last decade provides a unique opportunity to make progress in this area of research. This paper extends the study of Wu and Moncrieff to quantify separately the impacts of cloud horizontal inhomogeneity (optical property) and vertical overlap (geometry) on the domain-averaged shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere and the surface, and the radiative heating profiles. The diagnostic radiation calculations using the monthlong CRM-simulated tropical cloud optical properties and cloud fraction show that both horizontal inhomogeneity and vertical overlap of clouds are equally important for obtaining accurate radiative fluxes and heating rates. This study illustrates an objective approach to use long-term CRM simulations to separate cloud overlap and inhomogeneity effects, based on which GCM representation (such as mosaic treatment) of subgrid cloud–radiation interactions can be evaluated and improved.

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