Estimation of the Effects of Regional Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Balance of a Basin in the Middle Magdalena Valley

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Andres Romero-Duque ◽  
Maria Cristina Arenas-Bautista ◽  
Leonardo David Donado
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

<p>Hydrological cycle dynamics can be simulated through continuous numerical modelling in order to estimate a water budget at different time and spatial scales, taking a specific importance when considering climate change effects on the various processes that take place on a basin. With the purpose of estimating potential impacts of climate change on the basin water balance, the present study takes place on the catchment area of the Carare-Minero river, a basin located in the Middle Magdalena Valley (Colombia), a zone in which important economic activities unfold such as stockbreeding and agriculture, where regional climate change scenarios were made for the precipitation and temperature variables, along with a continuous hydrological modeling of the basin using the HEC-HMS software. The regional scenarios for the precipitation and temperature were developed through statistical downscaling based on General Circulation Models (GCM) of the sixth phase of the Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), with projections to 2100 for seven of the new set of CO2 emission scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), that take into account different socioeconomic assumptions for climate policies, with a baseline of 25 years between 1990 and 2014; the emission scenarios evaluated from lowest to highest CO2 emission were SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The obtained data were used as an input for the model of the basin in HEC-HMS obtaining a new water balance for each scenario comparing the results with the baseline case for current conditions, resulting in an evapotranspiration increase due to higher temperatures that, alongside changes in precipitation, produces lower flows for the higher SSP’s of SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0, in contrast with the low emission scenarios of SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 were the changes in temperature and precipitation are less drastic generating minor alterations in the hydrological balance.</p><p>Key words: Hydrological modeling, Middle Magdalena Valley, regional climate change scenarios, water balance.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of three different regional climate change scenarios for the application of a water balance model in a mesoscale catchment in Northeast Germany

2010 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 57-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Wegehenkel ◽  
U. Heinrich ◽  
H. Jochheim ◽  
K. C. Kersebaum ◽  
B. Röber
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Future climate changes might have some impacts on catchment hydrology. An assessment of such impacts on e.g. ground water recharge is required to derive adaptation strategies for future water resources management. The main objective of our study was an analysis of three different regional climate change scenarios for a catchment with an area of 2415 km2 located in the Northeastern German lowlands. These data sets consist of the STAR-scenario with a time period 1951–2055, the WettReg-scenario covering the period 1961–2100 and the grid based REMO-scenario for the time span 1950–2100. All three data sets are based on the SRES scenario A1B of the IPCC. In our analysis, we compared the meteorological data for the control period obtained from the regional climate change scenarios with corresponding data measured at meteorological stations in the catchment. The results of this analysis indicated, that there are high differences between the different regional climate change scenarios regarding the temporal dynamics and the amount of precipitation. In addition, we applied a water balance model using input data obtained from the different climate change scenarios and analyzed the impact of these different input data on the model output groundwater recharge. The results of our study indicated, that these regional climate change scenarios due to the uncertainties in the projections of precipitation show only a limited suitability for hydrologic impact analysis used for the establishment of future concrete water management procedures in their present state.

scholarly journals Regional climate change scenarios for Greece: future temperature and precipitation projections form ensembles of RCMs

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-421 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Emission ◽  
Spatial Grid ◽  
Of Greece

The potential regional future changes in seasonal (winter and summer) temperature and precipitation are assessed for the greater area of Greece over the 21st century, under A2, A1B and B2 future emission scenarios of IPCC. Totally twenty-two simulations from various regional climate models (RCMs) were assessed; fourteen of them with a spatial grid resolution of 50km for the period 2071-2100 under A2 (9 simulations) and B2 (5 simulations) scenarios and eight of them with an even finer resolution of 25km under A1B scenario for both 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 time periods. The future changes in temperature and precipitation were calculated with respect to the control period (1961-1990). All the models estimated warmer and dryer conditions over the study area. The warming is more intense during the summer months, with the changes being larger in the continental than in the marine area of Greece. In terms of precipitation, the simulations of the RCMs estimate a decrease up to -60% (A2 scenario). Finally it is shown that the changes in the atmospheric circulation over Europe play a key role in the changes of the future precipitation and temperature characteristics over the domain of study in a consistent way for the different emission scenarios.

scholarly journals Precipitation and Temperature in Costa Rica at the End of the Century Based on NEX-GDDP Projected Scenarios

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1323
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Castillo ◽  
Jorge A. Amador
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Temperature Range ◽  
Past Data ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

The evaluation of intraseasonal, seasonal, and annual variability of rainfall and temperature extremes, while using climate change scenarios data, is extremely important for socio-economic activities, such as water resources management. Costa Rica, a climate change hotspot, is largely dependent on rainfall for socioeconomic activities; hence, the relevance of this study. Based on the NEX-GDDP, rainfall and temperature range were analyzed for Costa Rica at the end of the century (2070–2099), while using 1970–1999 as a baseline for six available meteorological stations. Differences between the multimodel ensembles of two prospective scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and the historical information were computed. This study highlights Costa Rica as an inflexion region for climate change impacts in Central America, for which projected scenarios suggest an early onset of the rainy season, and a decline in the mid-summer drought (MSD) minimum. The assessment of model data in some regions of Costa Rica, for which historical data were available, suggests that the latter does not capture a well-known regional climate feature, the MSD, in both precipitation and temperature range well. The availability of observed past data sources is a major limitation of this research; however, with the station data used, it is still possible to draw some conclusions regarding future climate in some regions of Costa Rica, especially in the northwest side of the country, where past data are consistent with model information, providing a more reliable picture of changes in climate there that has potential implications for socioeconomic sectors.

scholarly journals The new national climate change documents of Mexico: what do the regional climate change scenarios represent?

2011 ◽  
Vol 110 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1029-1046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Benjamín Martínez-López ◽  
Cecilia Conde ◽  
Carlos Gay-García
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios
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