Detailed analysis of extreme heatwaves in Serbia, South-East Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biljana Basarin ◽  
Tin Lukić ◽  
Tanja Micić Ponjiger
Keyword(s):  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Physiologically Equivalent Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Equivalent Temperature ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation

<p>A detailed analysis of extreme heatwave events in Serbia from the biometeorological point of view is presented in this study.  For this purpose, the newly developed Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId), was used on Physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) for Serbia. A series of daily maximum air temperature, relative humidity, the wind was used to calculate PET for the investigated period 1979–2019. HWMId is defined as the maximum magnitude of the heatwaves in a year. Here, the heatwave is characterized as 3 consecutive days with maximum PET above the daily threshold for the reference period 1981–2010. The analysis revealed that during the investigated period the most intensive heat waves occurred in 2007, 2012 and 2015. HWMId values for 2007 were in the range of 8 to 23 indicating extreme heat stress, while for the other two events the values were not as high. Hourly temperatures revealed that the PET values during the day were as high as 55°C. Thus, the mitigation and adaptation to extreme temperature events are of vital importance for humans and their everyday activities. Future investigation should be oriented towards a way to deal with the oppressive heat. Additionally, more research is needed in order to explain and predict these catastrophic events. The main focus of future activities will be on determining the physical causes which lead to the occurrence of extreme heatwaves.</p><p>Keywords: Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily, Physiologically equivalent temperature, Serbia, heat waves</p><p>Acknowledgment: This research is supported by <strong>EXtremeClimTwin</strong> project funded from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 952384</p>

scholarly journals A Stepwise-Clustered Simulation Approach for Projecting Future Heat Wave Over Guangdong Province

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiayan Ren ◽  
Guohe Huang ◽  
Yongping Li ◽  
Xiong Zhou ◽  
Jinliang Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Simulation Approach

A heat wave is an important meteorological extreme event related to global warming, but little is known about the characteristics of future heat waves in Guangdong. Therefore, a stepwise-clustered simulation approach driven by multiple global climate models (i.e., GCMs) is developed for projecting future heat waves over Guangdong under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The temporal-spatial variations of four indicators (i.e., intensity, total intensity, frequency, and the longest duration) of projected heat waves, as well as the potential changes in daily maximum temperature (i.e., Tmax) for future (i.e., 2006–2095) and historical (i.e., 1976–2005) periods, were analyzed over Guangdong. The results indicated that Guangdong would endure a notable increasing annual trend in the projected Tmax (i.e., 0.016–0.03°C per year under RCP4.5 and 0.027–0.057°C per year under RCP8.5). Evaluations of the multiple GCMs and their ensemble suggested that the developed approach performed well, and the model ensemble was superior to any single GCM in capturing the features of heat waves. The spatial patterns and interannual trends displayed that Guangdong would undergo serious heat waves in the future. The variations of intensity, total intensity, frequency, and the longest duration of heat wave are likely to exceed 5.4°C per event, 24°C, 25 days, and 4 days in the 2080s under RCP8.5, respectively. Higher variation of those would concentrate in eastern and southwestern Guangdong. It also presented that severe heat waves with stronger intensity, higher frequency, and longer duration would have significant increasing tendencies over all Guangdong, which are expected to increase at a rate of 0.14, 0.83, and 0.21% per year under RCP8.5, respectively. Over 60% of Guangdong would suffer the moderate variation of heat waves to the end of this century under RCP8.5. The findings can provide decision makers with useful information to help mitigate the potential impacts of heat waves on pivotal regions as well as ecosystems that are sensitive to extreme temperature.

scholarly journals Extreme Temperature Events in Serbia in Relation to Atmospheric Circulation

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1584
Author(s):  
Ivana Tošić ◽  
Suzana Putniković ◽  
Milica Tošić ◽  
Irida Lazić
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Absolute Maximum ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
The Relationship

In this study, extremely warm and cold temperature events were examined based on daily maximum (Tx) and minimum (Tn) temperatures observed at 11 stations in Serbia during the period 1949–2018. Summer days (SU), warm days (Tx90), and heat waves (HWs) were calculated based on daily maximum temperatures, while frost days (FD) and cold nights (Tn10) were derived from daily minimum temperatures. Absolute maximum and minimum temperatures in Serbia rose but were statistically significant only for Tx in winter. Positive trends of summer and warm days, and negative trends of frost days and cold nights were found. A high number of warm events (SU, Tx90, and HWs) were recorded over the last 20 years. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were applied to find the relationship between extreme temperature events and atmospheric circulation. Typical atmospheric circulation patterns, previously determined for Serbia, were used as predictor variables. It was found that MLR models gave the best results for Tx90, FD, and Tn10 in winter.

scholarly journals Heat waves in Africa 1981–2015, observations and reanalysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guido Ceccherini ◽  
Simone Russo ◽  
Iban Ameztoy ◽  
Andrea Francesco Marchese ◽  
Cesar Carmona-Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Wave Analysis ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Temperature Records ◽  
Numerical Index

Abstract. The purpose of this article is to show the extreme temperature regime of heat waves across Africa over recent years (1981–2015). Heat waves have been quantified using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId), which merges the duration and the intensity of extreme temperature events into a single numerical index. The HWMId enables a comparison between heat waves with different timing and location, and it has been applied to maximum and minimum temperature records. The time series used in this study have been derived from (1) observations from the Global Summary of the Day (GSOD) and (2) reanalysis data from ERA-Interim. The analysis shows an increasing number of heat waves of both maxima and minima temperatures in the last decades. Results from heat wave analysis of maximum temperature (HWMIdtx) indicate an increase in intensity and frequency of extreme events. Specifically, from 1996 onwards it is possible to observe HWMIdtx spread with the maximum presence during 2006–2015. Between 2006 and 2015 the frequency (spatial coverage) of extreme heat waves had increased to 24.5 observations per year (60.1 % of land cover), as compared to 12.3 per year (37.3 % of land area) in the period from 1981 to 2005 for GSOD stations (reanalysis).

Analysis of the extreme heat events in Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 418-432 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hojjatollah Yazdanpanah ◽  
Josef Eitzinger ◽  
Marina Baldi
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hot Days

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the spatial and temporal variations of extreme hot days (H*) and heat wave frequencies across Iran. Design/methodology/approach The authors used daily maximum temperature (Tmax) data of 27 synoptic stations in Iran. These data were standardized using the mean and the standard deviation of each day of the year. An extreme hot day was defined when the Z score of daily maximum temperature of that day was equal or more than a given threshold fixed at 1.7, while a heat wave event was considered to occur when the Z score exceeds the threshold for at least three continuous days. According to these criteria, the annual frequency of extreme hot days and the number of heat waves were determined for all stations. Findings The trend analysis of H* shows a positive trend during the past two decades in Iran, with the maximum number of H* (110 cases) observed in 2010. A significant trend of the number of heat waves per year was also detected during 1991-2013 in all the stations. Overall, results indicate that Iran has experienced heat waves in recent years more often than its long-term average. There will be more frequent and intense hot days and heat waves across Iran until 2050, due to estimated increase of mean air temperature between 0.5-1.1 and 0.8-1.6 degree centigrade for Rcp2.6 and Rcp8.8 scenarios, respectively. Originality/value The trend analysis of hot days and heat wave frequencies is a particularly original aspect of this paper. It is very important for policy- and decision-makers especially in agriculture and health sectors of Iran to make some adaptation strategies for future frequent and intense hot days over Iran.

scholarly journals Analysis of Ocean-Atmospheric features associated with extreme temperature variation over east coast of India-A special emphasis to Orissa heat waves of 1998 and 2005

MAUSAM ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 401-422
Author(s):  
RAJENDRAKUMAR JENAMANI
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Andhra Pradesh ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Sea Breeze ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
East Coast Of India ◽  
Heat Indices

During the decade of 1998-2007, both Orissa and Andhra Pradesh at east Coast of India have been affected by heat waves more frequently and more severely causing very high damages to human lives. The most severe heat wave years for the region in the recent past are summer of 1998 over Orissa and 2003 over Andhra Pradesh when 2,042 and nearly 3054 people lost their lives respectively. In summer of 2005, though severe heat wave conditions were experienced for some days over Orissa and adjoining east coasts, the damages were not high as before. In view of such extreme temperature events have been regularly affected the region during the period where their normal frequency is low, analyses of their long period temperature data and study of their relationship with various regional and global ocean-atmospheric features are very much necessary, to find possible causes and then use them in forecasting. In the present study, an attempt has been made to analyze various temperature time series as available, varying from large domain to small domain, e.g., all India temperature, east coast of India temperature etc., to understand whether years which had recorded extreme temperatures in these larger domains have any relationship with that occurred over its very smaller domain, e.g., Orissa from station data, of which later is a part. To understand the relation between the magnitude of heat indices and loss to total human lives it caused during respective whole periods of heat waves, different heat indices, viz., general heat indices, Thom’s discomfort and Webb’s comfort indices have been computed during these extreme years over Orissa and Andhra Pradesh states and compared with total heat wave related human deaths over the respective states for the corresponding years. In addition to various heat indices, various Ocean-atmospheric characteristics, e.g., monthly SST over Bay of Bengal, day-to-day synoptic flow pattern, recurving Cyclonic Storms which strengthen low-level westerly and prohibit onset of Sea breeze over the coastal stations in the region causing persistent of heat waves, have also been critically analyzed both spatially and temporally to find role of these features in such occurrences. Their statistical lag correlations if any with ensuing temperature rise have been tested to explore the possibility of using them in forecasting these events much in advance.

Flash Drought and Heat Waves: An Overview of Cascading and Compound Events

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taylor Grace ◽  
Jordan Christian ◽  
Jeffery Basara
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Spatial Extent ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Temporal Duration ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Relative Threshold

<p>Flash droughts and heat waves have substantial impacts on agriculture, socioeconomics, and human health. The combined influence of these two events exacerbate the damage to several sectors. The positive feedback between drought and heat waves has been previously studied, but the connection between flash drought and heat waves (or record temperatures) has only been investigated to occur roughly at the same temporal period. Further understanding the compound and cascading impacts of flash droughts and heat waves could potentially enhance monitoring and/or predictability of flash drought events benefiting subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts, minimize human mortality, and prevent agricultural yield loss. We present a novel approach to analyzing compound and cascading impacts from the flash drought-heat wave relationship by investigating multiple case studies (e.g., 1950s drought event, 2011-2012 U.S. flash drought, and 2019 U.S. flash drought). Several reanalysis datasets were utilized to examine the intensity, temporal duration, and spatial extent relationships between flash drought and heat wave conditions during the case study events. We define heat waves using the following framework which incorporates classifications employed in previous studies; one classification is dependent on a relative threshold (i.e., 95<sup>th</sup> percentile) applied to daily maximum and minimum temperatures, whereas the second part of the definition utilizes heat index under the same relative threshold. In order for a heat wave event to begin, this definition must hold true for three or more consecutive days for a specified spatial method. Our flash drought analysis incorporated a percentile methodology based on standardized evapotranspiration stress ratio (SESR). Comparison between intensity, spatial extent, and temporal duration relationships for compound and cascading events were of particular focus for this study. A mixture of compound and cascading events were found within one flash drought study (i.e., 2011-2012 flash drought). As such, we further hypothesize that the intensity and temporal duration will differ between compound and cascading events. Yet, we expect the spatial extent to remain positively correlated as shown from previous studies.</p>

Mechanisms Associated with Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves over the Contiguous United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (11) ◽  
pp. 1865-1882
Author(s):  
Natalie P. Thomas ◽  
Michael G. Bosilovich ◽  
Allison B. Marquardt Collow ◽  
Randal D. Koster ◽  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
The United States ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Local Threshold ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Heat And Moisture ◽  
Climate Events

AbstractHeat waves are extreme climate events that have the potential to cause immense stress on human health, agriculture, and energy systems, so understanding the processes leading to their onset is crucial. There is no single accepted definition for heat waves, but they are generally described as a sustained amount of time over which temperature exceeds a local threshold. Multiple different temperature variables are potentially relevant, because high values of both daily maximum and minimum temperatures can be detrimental to human health. In this study, we focus explicitly on the different mechanisms associated with summertime heat waves manifested during daytime hours versus nighttime hours over the contiguous United States. Heat waves are examined using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). Over 1980–2018, the increase in the number of heat-wave days per summer was generally stronger for nighttime heat-wave days than for daytime heat-wave days, with localized regions of significant positive trends. Processes linked with daytime and nighttime heat waves are identified through composite analysis of precipitation, soil moisture, clouds, humidity, and fluxes of heat and moisture. Daytime heat waves are associated with dry conditions, reduced cloud cover, and increased sensible heating. Mechanisms leading to nighttime heat waves differ regionally across the United States, but they are typically associated with increased clouds, humidity, and/or low-level temperature advection. In the midwestern United States, enhanced moisture is transported from the Gulf of Mexico during nighttime heat waves.

Seasonal analysis of warm extreme events in Serbia from 1949 to 2017

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivana Tosic ◽  
Suzana Putniković ◽  
Milica Tošić
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Seasonal Analysis ◽  
Novi Sad

<p>Worldwide studies revealed a general increase in frequency and severity of warm extreme temperature events. In this study, extreme temperature events including Heat waves (HWs) are examined. Extreme indices are calculated based on daily maximum temperature (Tx). The following definitions are employed: SU - number of days with Tx > 25 °C, umber of days with Tx > 90<sup>th</sup> percentile, and WSDI - number of days in intervals of at least six consecutive days for which Tx is higher than the calendar day 90<sup>th</sup> percentile. Daily values of air temperatures from 11 meteorological stations distributed across Serbia were used for the period 1949–2017.</p><p>Trends of extreme temperature events and their frequencies are examined. The period 1949–2017 are characterised by a warming of extreme temperature indices (SU, Tx90, HWs). It is found that maximum air temperatures increased at all stations, but statistically significant at 6 stations in winter, 4 stations in summer and two stations in spring. The average number of SU per station was between 63.1 in Novi Sad to 73.5 in Negotin during the summer season. Significant increase of SU is recorded in summer for 10 out of 11 stations. Positive trends of SU and Tx90 are observed for all stations and seasons, except in Novi Sad. The average number of Tx90 is about 9 for all stations in all seasons. The longest heat waves prevailed in 2012, but the most severe are recorded in 2007. Increasing of warm extreme events in Serbia are in agreement with studies for different regions of the world.</p>

scholarly journals Heat Waves in Florida: Climatology, Trends, and Related Precipitation Events

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 447-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shealynn R. Cloutier-Bisbee ◽  
Ajay Raghavendra ◽  
Shawn M. Milrad
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Southern Florida ◽  
Precipitation Events

AbstractHeat waves are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity and are strongly linked to anthropogenic climate change. However, few studies have examined heat waves in Florida, despite an older population and increasingly urbanized land areas that make it particularly susceptible to heat impacts. Heavy precipitation events are also becoming more frequent and intense; recent climate model simulations showed that heavy precipitation in the three days after a Florida heat wave follow these trends, yet the underlying dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms have not been investigated. In this study, a heat wave climatology and trend analysis are developed from 1950 to 2016 for seven major airports in Florida. Heat waves are defined based on the 95th percentile of daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures. Results show that heat waves exhibit statistically significant increases in frequency and duration at most stations, especially for mean and minimum temperature events. Frequency and duration increases are most prominent at Tallahassee, Tampa, Miami, and Key West. Heat waves in northern Florida are characterized by large-scale continental ridging, while heat waves in central and southern Florida are associated with a combination of a continental ridge and a westward extension of the Bermuda–Azores high. Heavy precipitation events that follow a heat wave are characterized by anomalously large ascent and moisture, as well as strong instability. Light precipitation events in northern Florida are characterized by advection of drier air from the continent, while over central and southern Florida, prolonged subsidence is the most important difference between heavy and light events.

scholarly journals How Important is Vegetation Phenology for European Climate and Heat Waves?

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (24) ◽  
pp. 10077-10100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruth Lorenz ◽  
Edouard L. Davin ◽  
David M. Lawrence ◽  
Reto Stöckli ◽  
Sonia I. Seneviratne
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Vegetation Phenology ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Summer Climate ◽  
European Climate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract It has been hypothesized that vegetation phenology may play an important role for the midlatitude climate. This study investigates the impact of interannual and intraseasonal variations in phenology on European climate using regional climate model simulations. In addition, it assesses the relative importance of interannual variations in vegetation phenology and soil moisture on European summer climate. It is found that drastic phenological changes have a smaller effect on mean summer and spring climate than extreme changes in soil moisture (roughly ¼ of the temperature anomaly induced by soil moisture changes). However, the impact of phenological anomalies during heat waves is found to be more important. Generally, late and weak greening has amplifying effects and early and strong greening has dampening effects on heat waves; however, regional variations are found. The experiments suggest that in the extreme hot 2003 (western and central Europe) and 2007 (southeastern Europe) summers the decrease in leaf area index amplified the heat wave peaks by about 0.5°C for daily maximum temperatures (about half of the effect induced by soil moisture deficit). In contrast to earlier hypotheses, no anomalous early greening in spring 2003 is seen in the phenological dataset employed here. Hence, the results indicate that vegetation feedbacks amplified the 2003 heat wave but were not responsible for its initiation. In conclusion, the results suggest that phenology has a limited effect on European mean summer climate, but its impact can be as important as that induced by soil moisture anomalies in the context of specific extreme events.

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