Inter-spatial heat vulnerability assessment of Summer - 2018 over Madhya Pradesh using discomfort (wind and thermal) indices

Due to global warming, increase in air temperature is a growing concern at present. This rise in temperature may cause mild to severe thermal discomfort and heat related hazards mostly for the people who are engaged in outside activities throughout the day. The present study shows the inter-spatial monthly distribution of thermal patches over major stations of Madhya Pradesh, viz., Bhopal, Gwalior, Indore, Jabalpur, Hoshangabad, Rewa, Ratlam, Ujjain, Dhar etc. In this study, various Heat Indices applicable for tropical climate including Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) are used to estimate the thermal stress by analyzing the meteorological data of Summer-2018 in Madhya Pradesh. Study was carried out for computing indoor, shady and outdoor heat stress separately and heat transfer rates to identify the places vulnerable to severe heat stroke in the month of March, April and May in 2018.It is observed that declaration of heat wave alone at any station is not sufficient for the administration and health organizations to take precautionary actions; also, discomfort indices should be referred for impact based monitoring and making work schedules. It is found that March and April fall in the partial discomfort category for at least half of the districts in Madhya Pradesh. It is interesting to note that several districts fall in discomfort category in outdoor conditions but not in indoor or shady conditions in May month. Severe stresses are observed mainly in the West and Central Madhya Pradesh during April and May months. Comparison of various Heat Indices is too performed along with computing Tropical Summer Index (TSI) and Apparent Temperature (AT) to indicate real feel-like temperatures in Madhya Pradesh during extreme temperature events.

Analysis of Ocean-Atmospheric features associated with extreme temperature variation over east coast of India-A special emphasis to Orissa heat waves of 1998 and 2005

During the decade of 1998-2007, both Orissa and Andhra Pradesh at east Coast of India have been affected by heat waves more frequently and more severely causing very high damages to human lives. The most severe heat wave years for the region in the recent past are summer of 1998 over Orissa and 2003 over Andhra Pradesh when 2,042 and nearly 3054 people lost their lives respectively. In summer of 2005, though severe heat wave conditions were experienced for some days over Orissa and adjoining east coasts, the damages were not high as before. In view of such extreme temperature events have been regularly affected the region during the period where their normal frequency is low, analyses of their long period temperature data and study of their relationship with various regional and global ocean-atmospheric features are very much necessary, to find possible causes and then use them in forecasting. In the present study, an attempt has been made to analyze various temperature time series as available, varying from large domain to small domain, e.g., all India temperature, east coast of India temperature etc., to understand whether years which had recorded extreme temperatures in these larger domains have any relationship with that occurred over its very smaller domain, e.g., Orissa from station data, of which later is a part. To understand the relation between the magnitude of heat indices and loss to total human lives it caused during respective whole periods of heat waves, different heat indices, viz., general heat indices, Thom’s discomfort and Webb’s comfort indices have been computed during these extreme years over Orissa and Andhra Pradesh states and compared with total heat wave related human deaths over the respective states for the corresponding years. In addition to various heat indices, various Ocean-atmospheric characteristics, e.g., monthly SST over Bay of Bengal, day-to-day synoptic flow pattern, recurving Cyclonic Storms which strengthen low-level westerly and prohibit onset of Sea breeze over the coastal stations in the region causing persistent of heat waves, have also been critically analyzed both spatially and temporally to find role of these features in such occurrences. Their statistical lag correlations if any with ensuing temperature rise have been tested to explore the possibility of using them in forecasting these events much in advance.

Comparative study of multiple heat indices in revisiting summer heat across China based on meteorological observations

Multiple indices have been created to measure hot conditions that may cause discomfort, stress even death to humans. However, distinctions among these indices and their performance in measuring heat remain undisclosed. We conduct a comparative study of multiple heat indices and revisit the spatiotemporal changes in summer heat across China. The maximum temperature-based index, more sensitive to average and maximum temperatures, suggests a larger increasing trend (0.42°C/10a) in heat intensity than those average temperature-based ones which are more sensitive to minimum temperature. The absolute threshold-based heat-day indices are not so applicable as the relative ones in measuring the increasing heat days over the Tibetan Plateau. During 1960–2018, significant ( p < 0.05) increasing trends in heat intensity (0.11–0.42°C/10a) and heat day (0.63–2.67 days/10a) are revealed with a jump-like increase after the mid-1990s at the country level. Stronger heat intensity occurs over the southeast and north China with larger increasing trends over the Tibetan Plateau and northwest China. Northern China with larger increasing heat intensity and days should take effective measures of adaptation to reduce suffering from the summer heat. Given differences among multiple indices and the performance over different regions, a rational selection of heat index considering the research subject of interest and regional climatology is highly recommended.

Modeling of Heat Stress in Sows Part 2: Comparison of Various Thermal Comfort Indices

Heat stress has an adverse effect on the production performance of sows, and causes a large economic loss every year. The thermal environment index is an important indicator for evaluating the level of heat stress in animals. Many thermal indices have been used to analyze the environment of the pig house, including temperature and humidity index (THI), effective temperature (ET), equivalent temperature index of sows (ETIS), and enthalpy (H), among others. Different heat indices have different characteristics, and it is necessary to analyze and compare the characteristics of heat indices to select a relatively suitable heat index for specific application. This article reviews the thermal environment indices used in the process of sow breeding, and compares various heat indices in four ways: (1) Holding the value of the thermal index constant and analyzing the equivalent temperature changes caused by the relative humidity. (2) Analyzing the variations of ET and ETIS caused by changes in air velocity. (3) Conducting a comparative analysis of a variety of isothermal lines fitted to the psychrometric chart. (4) Analyzing the distributions of various heat index values inside the sow barn and the correlation between various heat indices and sow heat dissipation with the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technology. The results show that the ETIS performs better than other thermal indices in the analysis of sows’ thermal environment, followed by THI2, THI4, and THI7. Different pigs have different heat transfer characteristics and different adaptability to the environment. Therefore, based on the above results, the following suggestions have been given: The thermal index thresholds need to be divided based on the adaptability of pigs to the environment at different growth stages and the different climates in different regions. An appropriate threshold for a thermal index can provide a theoretical basis for the environmental control of the pig house.

Forecast of Changes in Air Temperatures and Heat Indices in the Sevastopol Region in the 21st Century and Their Impacts on Viticulture

Climate is a limiting factor in viticulture, as it defines favorable areas, grape cultivars, and agrotechnical activities. In the Sevastopol region, viticulture is the main and promising agricultural branch. Using the outputs of the regional climate models from the CORDEX project, the projections of agroclimatic conditions in the Sevastopol region for two future periods (2021–2045 and 2046–2070) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were obtained. The results in our study show the trend of temperature indices rise (average growing season temperature, effective heat sum, Winkler and Huglin indices) and the region’s transition to higher classes, especially during the second future period (2046–2070). However, despite the higher temperature indices, the Sevastopol region will remain suitable for the growing of grapes cultivars with all ripening periods.

The extreme warm summer 2018 in Sweden - set in a historical context

&lt;p&gt;Long-lasting high-pressure dominated weather resulting in remarkably warm and dry conditions in large parts of northern Europe during summer 2018. As a consequence, Sweden experienced a very long warm period with an unusual high number of warm days, which could be felt in many parts of the society. Groundwater shortage, many extensive forest fires (requiring assistance on European scale), health impacts on people, drought related shortage of food for livestock leading to emergency slaughter in many regions.According to SMHIs weather observations the average over Sweden for the four-month period May-August was on average 3.3K warmer than the 1961-1990 climatological mean.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here, we evaluate climate conditions in Sweden during the summer 2018 in relation to the historical climate, reaching back to pre-industrial times. Basing the evaluation on long observation time series (150 years for some station across Sweden, and 250 years for Stockholm) as well as on 5 large ensembles from different global models, we want to assess to what extent an extreme event like the summer of 2018 may have changed as a result of global warming.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To grasp the character of summer 2018, not only daily values are considered, but also periods of heat days and heat indices describing the amplitude and length of an event.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;With the extended length of the summer season, on account of an exceptional warm May, 2018 sets its record for many heat related indices and would have very unlikely been observed in pre-industrial times according to the given model data.&lt;/p&gt;

Influence of Climate and Nonclimate Parameters on Monthly Electricity Consumption in Niger

This study examines the impacts of relevant factors (climatic and nonclimatic) on the monthly electricity consumption (MEC) in four major cities in Niger using simple multiple linear regressions (MLRs). Parameters such GDP/capita, air temperature (Tmean), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WSP), solar radiation (SR), precipitation, and clearness index (K) are used. In addition, two heat indices, heat index (HI) and discomfort index (DI) are calculated to take into account the impacts of high humidity in conjunction with high ambient temperature. Hence, three different models were derived from the aforementioned variables. The three models have been tested using the k-folds cross-validation. Results show that the model with primitive variables such GDP per capita, Tmean, RH, SR, and WSP perform better than the other two models with a coefficient determination R2 equal to 0.87, 0.854, 0.833, and 0.551 for Niamey, Maradi, Zinder, and Agadez, respectively. According to the month considered, the mean absolute percentage error can give a small error for specific combinations of climate variables. The variables such as precipitation and clearness index are found to be not statistically significant.

“Streets of Fire” revisited: contact burns

Background Pavement-street contact burns are rare. This study compared recent contact burns to those published in “Pavement temperature and burns: Streets of Fire” in 1995. The hypothesis was that there were a significantly increased number of pavement-street burns, as a result of increased ambient temperatures, and that motor vehicle crash (MVC) contact burns were less severe than pavements-street burns. Methods This was a retrospective burn center registry study of naturally heated surface contact burns during May to September from 2016 to 2018. Statistical analyses were performed with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Maximum Likelihood chi-squared for age, percent of total burn surface area (% TBSA), treatment, hospitalization, comorbidities, hospital charges, mortality, ambient, and surface temperatures (pavement, asphalt, rocks). Results In the 1995 study, median ambient temperatures were 106 (range 100–113) °F compared to the 108 (range 86–119) °F highest noon temperature in the current study. No ambient temperature differences were recorded on days with pavement burn admissions compared to days without these admissions. There were 225 pavement, 27 MVC, 15 road rash, and 103 other contact burns. The major injuries in the pavement group were due to being “down” (unknown reason), falls, and barefoot. Compared to the others, the pavement group was older, 56+ years, p &lt; 0.001, and had smaller burns but similar length of stay. Fifty percent of the 225 pavement group patients with full-thickness burns required skin grafts. There were 13 (6%) fatalities in the pavement group vs 1 (4%) in the MVC group, p = 0.01. Fatalities were secondary to sepsis, shock, cardiac, respiratory, or kidney complications. Compared to survivors, the non-survivors had a significantly higher % TBSA (10% vs 4%), p = 0.01, and lower Glasgow Coma Scores (10 vs 15), p = 0.002. Conclusion There was a median 2 °F increase in ambient temperature since 1995. The increase in pavement burn admissions was multi-factorial: higher temperatures, population, and the number of older patients, with increased metropolis expansion, outreach, and urban heat indices. Pavement group was similar to the MVC group except for significantly older age and increased mortality. Morbidity associated with age contributed to increased mortality.

New and Old Indices for Evaluating Heat Stress in an Indoor Environment: Some Considerations. Comment on Kownacki, L.; Gao, C.; Kuklane, K.; Wierzbicka, A. Heat Stress in Indoor Environments of Scandinavian Urban Areas: A Literature Review. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16 (4), 560. doi:10.3390/ijerph16040560

In their review, Kownacki et al. showed some practical and easy to use workplace heat indices that are useful for indoor environments, namely the “Wet Bulb Globe Temperature” (WBGT), the “Predicted Heat Strain” (PHS) model, the “Thermal Work Limit” (TWL), the “Equivalent Temperature” (ET) and the thermal comfort index “PMV/PPD”. In this letter, the authors explain why the modified PMV/PPD method together with the indices combining temperature with humidity, such as the “Humidex Index” and the “Heat Index”, could be a more feasible and useful tool for evaluating potential thermal stress in indoor environments for both the occupational and general population.