Quantifying streamflow predictability across North America on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Arnal ◽  
Martyn Clark ◽  
Vincent Vionnet ◽  
Vincent Fortin ◽  
Alain Pietroniro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Water Sector ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Streamflow Forecast ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow

<div> <p><span><span>Sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasts represent critical operational inputs for many water sector applications of societal relevance, such as spring flood early warning, water supply, hydropower generation, and irrigation scheduling. However, the skill of such forecasts has not risen greatly in recent decades despite recognizable advances in many relevant capabilities, including hydrologic modeling and S2S climate prediction. In order to build a continental-scale forecasting system that has value at the local scale, the sources and nature of predictability in the forecasts should be quantified and communicated. This can additionally help to target science investments for tangible improvements in the sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasting skill.</span></span></p> </div><div> <p><span><span>As part of the Canada-based Global Water Futures (GWF) program, we are advancing capabilities for probabilistic sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasts over North America. The overall aim is to improve sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasts for a range of water sector applications. We are implementing an array of forecasting methods that integrate state-of-the-art mechanistic models and statistical methods. These include, for instance, a </span></span><span>probabilistic sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasting system based on quantile regression of snow water equivalent observations, and a system based on the ESP approach (Day, 1985). </span></p> <p><span><span>To guide forecast system developments over North America, we are currently quantifying streamflow predictability for different hydroclimatic regimes, forecast initialization times, and lead times, against both streamflow simulations and observations to quantify the effect of model errors. Building on the work from Wood et al. (2016) and Arnal et al. (2017), we are disentangling the dominant predictability sources (i.e., initial hydrological conditions and atmospheric forcings) of sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow across North American watersheds. The results provide insights into the elasticity of predictability, i.e., the increase in streamflow forecast skill possible by improving a specific component of the forecast system, and will inform the forecasting system development.</span></span></p> </div><div> <p><span><span>Arnal Louise, Wood Andrew W., Stephens Elisabeth, Cloke Hannah L., Pappenberger Florian, 2017: An Efficient Approach for Estimating Streamflow Forecast Skill Elasticity. Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1</span></span></p> </div><div> <p>Day, Gerald N., 1985: Extended streamflow forecasting using NWSRFS. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1985)111:2(157)</p> </div><p>Wood, Andrew W., Tom Hopson, Andy Newman, Levi Brekke, Jeff Arnold, and Martyn Clark, 2016: Quantifying streamflow forecast skill elasticity to initial condition and climate prediction skill. Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0213.1</p>

Does the application of multiple hydrological models improve seasonal streamflow forecasting skill?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bastian Klein ◽  
Ilias Pechlivanidis ◽  
Louise Arnal ◽  
Louise Crochemore ◽  
Dennis Meissner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow

<p>Many sectors, such as hydropower, agriculture, water supply and waterway transport, need information about the possible evolution of meteorological and hydrological conditions in the next weeks and months to optimize their decision processes on a long term. With increasing availability of meteorological seasonal forecasts, hydrological seasonal forecasting systems have been developed all over the world in the last years. Many of them are running in operational mode. On European scale the European Flood Awareness System EFAS and SMHI are operationally providing seasonal streamflow forecasts. In the context of the EU-Horizon2020 project IMPREX additionally a national scale forecasting system for German waterways operated by BfG was available for the analysis of seasonal forecasts from multiple hydrological models.</p><p>Statistical post processing tools could be used to estimate the predictive uncertainty of the forecasted variable from deterministic / ensemble forecasts of a single / multi-model forecasting system. Raw forecasts shouldn’t be used directly by users without statistical post-processing because of various biases. To assess the added potential benefit of the application of a hydrological multi-model ensemble, the forecasting systems from EFAS, SMHI and BfG were forced by re-forecasts of the ECMWF’s Seasonal Forecast System 4 and the resulting seasonal streamflow forecasts have been verified for 24 gauges across Central Europe. Additionally two statistical forecasting methods - Ensemble Model Output Statistics EMOS and Bayesian Model Averaging BMA - have been applied to post-process the forecasts.</p><p>Overall, seasonal flow forecast skill is limited in Central Europe before and after post-processing with a current predictability of 1-2 months. The results of the multi-model analysis indicate that post-processing of raw forecasts is necessary when observations are used as reference. Post-processing improves forecast skill significantly for all gauges, lead times and seasons. The multi-model combination of all models showed the highest skill compared to the skill of the raw forecasts and the skill of the post-processed results of the individual models, i.e. the application of several hydrological models for the same region improves skill, due to the different model strengths.</p>

scholarly journals Benchmarking Real-Time Streamflow Forecast Skill in the Himalayan Region

Forecasting ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 230-247
Author(s):  
Ganesh R. Ghimire ◽  
Sanjib Sharma ◽  
Jeeban Panthi ◽  
Rocky Talchabhadel ◽  
Binod Parajuli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Water Policy ◽  
Low Complexity ◽  
Critical Issue ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Streamflow Forecast ◽  
Time Flow ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts

Improving decision-making in various areas of water policy and management (e.g., flood and drought preparedness, reservoir operation and hydropower generation) requires skillful streamflow forecasts. Despite the recent advances in hydrometeorological prediction, real-time streamflow forecasting over the Himalayas remains a critical issue and challenge, especially with complex basin physiography, shifting weather patterns and sparse and biased in-situ hydrometeorological monitoring data. In this study, we demonstrate the utility of low-complexity data-driven persistence-based approaches for skillful streamflow forecasting in the Himalayan country Nepal. The selected approaches are: (1) simple persistence, (2) streamflow climatology and (3) anomaly persistence. We generated the streamflow forecasts for 65 stream gauge stations across Nepal for short-to-medium range forecast lead times (1 to 12 days). The selected gauge stations were monitored by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) Nepal, and they represent a wide range of basin size, from ~17 to ~54,100 km2. We find that the performance of persistence-based forecasting approaches depends highly upon the lead time, flow threshold, basin size and flow regime. Overall, the persistence-based forecast results demonstrate higher forecast skill in snow-fed rivers over intermittent ones, moderate flows over extreme ones and larger basins over smaller ones. The streamflow forecast skill obtained in this study can serve as a benchmark (reference) for the evaluation of many operational forecasting systems over the Himalayas.

scholarly journals The Value of Accurate High-Resolution and Spatially Continuous Snow Information to Streamflow Forecasts

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 731-749 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongyue Li ◽  
Dennis P. Lettenmaier ◽  
Steven A. Margulis ◽  
Konstantinos Andreadis
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Streamflow Forecast ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Previous studies have shown limited success in improving streamflow forecasting for snow-dominated watersheds using physically based models, primarily due to the lack of reliable snow water equivalent (SWE) information. Here we use a hindcasting approach to evaluate the potential benefit that a high-resolution, spatiotemporally continuous, and accurate SWE reanalysis product would have on the seasonal streamflow forecast in the snow-dominated Sierra Nevada mountains of California if such an SWE product were available in real time. We tested the efficacy of a physically based ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) framework when initialized with the reanalysis SWE. We reinitialized the SWE over the Sierra Nevada at the time when the Sierra Nevada had domain-wide annual maximum SWE for each year in 1985–2015, and on 1 February of the driest years within the same period. The early season forecasts on 1 February provide valuable lead time for mitigating the impact of drought. In both experiments, initializing the ESP with the reanalysis SWE reduced the seasonal streamflow forecast errors; compared with existing operational statistical forecasts, the peak-annual SWE insertion and the 1 February SWE insertion reduced the overall root-mean-square error of the seasonal streamflow forecasts by 13% and 23%, respectively, over the 13 major rivers draining the Sierra Nevada. The benefits of the reanalysis SWE insertion are more pronounced in areas with greater snow accumulation, while the complex snow and runoff-generation processes in low-elevation areas impede the forecasting skill improvement through SWE reinitialization alone.

scholarly journals Evaluating post-processing approaches for monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 6257-6278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fitsum Woldemeskel ◽  
David McInerney ◽  
Julien Lerat ◽  
Mark Thyer ◽  
Dmitri Kavetski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Skill Score ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Processing Scheme ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow ◽  
Sharpness Metrics

Abstract. Streamflow forecasting is prone to substantial uncertainty due to errors in meteorological forecasts, hydrological model structure, and parameterization, as well as in the observed rainfall and streamflow data used to calibrate the models. Statistical streamflow post-processing is an important technique available to improve the probabilistic properties of the forecasts. This study evaluates post-processing approaches based on three transformations – logarithmic (Log), log-sinh (Log-Sinh), and Box–Cox with λ=0.2 (BC0.2) – and identifies the best-performing scheme for post-processing monthly and seasonal (3-months-ahead) streamflow forecasts, such as those produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Using the Bureau's operational dynamic streamflow forecasting system, we carry out comprehensive analysis of the three post-processing schemes across 300 Australian catchments with a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Forecast verification is assessed using reliability and sharpness metrics, as well as the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS). Results show that the uncorrected forecasts (i.e. without post-processing) are unreliable at half of the catchments. Post-processing of forecasts substantially improves reliability, with more than 90 % of forecasts classified as reliable. In terms of sharpness, the BC0.2 scheme substantially outperforms the Log and Log-Sinh schemes. Overall, the BC0.2 scheme achieves reliable and sharper-than-climatology forecasts at a larger number of catchments than the Log and Log-Sinh schemes. The improvements in forecast reliability and sharpness achieved using the BC0.2 post-processing scheme will help water managers and users of the forecasting service make better-informed decisions in planning and management of water resources. Highlights. Uncorrected and post-processed streamflow forecasts (using three transformations, namely Log, Log-Sinh, and BC0.2) are evaluated over 300 diverse Australian catchments. Post-processing enhances streamflow forecast reliability, increasing the percentage of catchments with reliable predictions from 50 % to over 90 %. The BC0.2 transformation achieves substantially better forecast sharpness than the Log-Sinh and Log transformations, particularly in dry catchments.

scholarly journals An Efficient Approach for Estimating Streamflow Forecast Skill Elasticity

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1715-1729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Arnal ◽  
Andrew W. Wood ◽  
Elisabeth Stephens ◽  
Hannah L. Cloke ◽  
Florian Pappenberger
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Streamflow Prediction ◽  
Streamflow Forecast ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow

Abstract Seasonal streamflow prediction skill can derive from catchment initial hydrological conditions (IHCs) and from the future seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) used to produce the hydrological forecasts. Although much effort has gone into producing state-of-the-art seasonal streamflow forecasts from improving IHCs and SCFs, these developments are expensive and time consuming and the forecasting skill is still limited in most parts of the world. Hence, sensitivity analyses are crucial to funnel the resources into useful modeling and forecasting developments. It is in this context that a sensitivity analysis technique, the variational ensemble streamflow prediction assessment (VESPA) approach, was recently introduced. VESPA can be used to quantify the expected improvements in seasonal streamflow forecast skill as a result of realistic improvements in its predictability sources (i.e., the IHCs and the SCFs)—termed “skill elasticity”—and to indicate where efforts should be targeted. The VESPA approach is, however, computationally expensive, relying on multiple hindcasts having varying levels of skill in IHCs and SCFs. This paper presents two approximations of the approach that are computationally inexpensive alternatives. These new methods were tested against the original VESPA results using 30 years of ensemble hindcasts for 18 catchments of the contiguous United States. The results suggest that one of the methods, end point blending, is an effective alternative for estimating the forecast skill elasticities yielded by the VESPA approach. The results also highlight the importance of the choice of verification score for a goal-oriented sensitivity analysis.

scholarly journals Soil Moisture Initialization Error and Subgrid Variability of Precipitation in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randal D. Koster ◽  
Gregory K. Walker ◽  
Sarith P. P. Mahanama ◽  
Rolf H. Reichle
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Streamflow Forecast ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow ◽  
Soil Moisture Initialization

Abstract Offline simulations over the conterminous United States (CONUS) with a land surface model are used to address two issues relevant to the forecasting of large-scale seasonal streamflow: (i) the extent to which errors in soil moisture initialization degrade streamflow forecasts, and (ii) the extent to which a realistic increase in the spatial resolution of forecasted precipitation would improve streamflow forecasts. The addition of error to a soil moisture initialization field is found to lead to a nearly proportional reduction in large-scale seasonal streamflow forecast skill. The linearity of the response allows the determination of a lower bound for the increase in streamflow forecast skill achievable through improved soil moisture estimation, for example, through the assimilation of satellite-based soil moisture measurements. An increase in the resolution of precipitation is found to have an impact on large-scale seasonal streamflow forecasts only when evaporation variance is significant relative to precipitation variance. This condition is met only in the western half of the CONUS domain. Taken together, the two studies demonstrate the utility of a continental-scale land surface–modeling system as a tool for addressing the science of hydrological prediction.

scholarly journals Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
James C. Bennett ◽  
Quan J. Wang ◽  
David E. Robertson ◽  
Andrew Schepen ◽  
Ming Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lead Times ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Australian Continent ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Ephemeral Rivers ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow

Abstract. Despite an increasing availability of skillful long-range streamflow forecasts, many water agencies still rely on simple resampled historical inflow sequences (stochastic scenarios) to plan operations over the coming year. We assess a recently developed forecasting system called forecast guided stochastic scenarios (FoGSS) as a skillful alternative to standard stochastic scenarios for the Australian continent. FoGSS uses climate forecasts from a coupled ocean-land-atmosphere prediction system, post-processed with the method of calibration, bridging and merging. Ensemble rainfall forecasts force a monthly rainfall-runoff model, while a staged hydrological error model quantifies and propagates hydrological forecast uncertainty through forecast lead times. FoGSS is able to generate ensemble streamflow forecasts in the form of monthly time series to a 12-month forecast horizon. FoGSS is tested on 63 Australian catchments that cover a wide range of climates, including 21 ephemeral rivers. In all perennial and many ephemeral catchments, FoGSS provides an effective alternative to resampled historical inflow sequences. FoGSS generally produces skillful forecasts at shorter lead times (

scholarly journals Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 1573-1591 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Crochemore ◽  
Maria-Helena Ramos ◽  
Florian Pappenberger ◽  
Charles Perrin
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Precipitation Indices ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow ◽  
Prediction Approach ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Many fields, such as drought-risk assessment or reservoir management, can benefit from long-range streamflow forecasts. Climatology has long been used in long-range streamflow forecasting. Conditioning methods have been proposed to select or weight relevant historical time series from climatology. They are often based on general circulation model (GCM) outputs that are specific to the forecast date due to the initialisation of GCMs on current conditions. This study investigates the impact of conditioning methods on the performance of seasonal streamflow forecasts. Four conditioning statistics based on seasonal forecasts of cumulative precipitation and the standardised precipitation index were used to select relevant traces within historical streamflows and precipitation respectively. This resulted in eight conditioned streamflow forecast scenarios. These scenarios were compared to the climatology of historical streamflows, the ensemble streamflow prediction approach and the streamflow forecasts obtained from ECMWF System 4 precipitation forecasts. The impact of conditioning was assessed in terms of forecast sharpness (spread), reliability, overall performance and low-flow event detection. Results showed that conditioning past observations on seasonal precipitation indices generally improves forecast sharpness, but may reduce reliability, with respect to climatology. Conversely, conditioned ensembles were more reliable but less sharp than streamflow forecasts derived from System 4 precipitation. Forecast attributes from conditioned and unconditioned ensembles are illustrated for a case of drought-risk forecasting: the 2003 drought in France. In the case of low-flow forecasting, conditioning results in ensembles that can better assess weekly deficit volumes and durations over a wider range of lead times.

scholarly journals Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Crochemore ◽  
M.-H. Ramos ◽  
Florian Pappenberger
Keyword(s):  
Bias Correction ◽  
Linear Scaling ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Distribution Mapping ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow

Abstract. Meteorological centres make sustained efforts to provide seasonal forecasts that are increasingly skilful, which has the potential to benefit streamflow forecasting. Seasonal streamflow forecasts can help to take anticipatory measures for a range of applications, such as water supply or hydropower reservoir operation and drought risk management. This study assesses the skill of seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts in France to provide insights into the way bias correcting precipitation forecasts can improve the skill of streamflow forecasts at extended lead times. We apply eight variants of bias correction approaches to the precipitation forecasts prior to generating the streamflow forecasts. The approaches are based on the linear scaling and the distribution mapping methods. A daily hydrological model is applied at the catchment scale to transform precipitation into streamflow. We then evaluate the skill of raw (without bias correction) and bias corrected precipitation and streamflow ensemble forecasts in sixteen catchments in France. The skill of the ensemble forecasts is assessed in reliability, sharpness, accuracy, and overall performance. A reference prediction system, based on historical observed precipitation and catchment initial conditions at the time of forecast (i.e., ESP method), is used as benchmark in the computation of the skill. The results show that, in most catchments, raw seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts are often more skilful than the conventional ESP method in terms of sharpness. However, they are not significantly better in terms of reliability. Forecast skill is generally improved when applying bias correction. Two bias correction methods show the best performance for the studied catchments, each method being more successful in improving specific attributes of the forecasts: the simple linear scaling of monthly values contribute mainly to increasing forecast sharpness and accuracy, while the empirical distribution mapping of daily values is successful in improving forecast reliability.

scholarly journals Improving statistical forecasts of seasonal streamflows using hydrological model output

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 8701-8736 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. E. Robertson ◽  
P. Pokhrel ◽  
Q. J. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
True Source ◽  
Hybrid Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow

Abstract. Statistical methods traditionally applied for seasonal streamflow forecasting use predictors that represent the initial catchment condition and future climate influences on future streamflows. Observations of antecedent streamflows or rainfall commonly used to represent the initial catchment conditions are surrogates for the true source of predictability and can potentially have limitations. This study investigates a hybrid seasonal forecasting system that uses the simulations from a dynamic hydrological model as a predictor to represent the initial catchment condition in a statistical seasonal forecasting method. We compare the skill and reliability of forecasts made using the hybrid forecasting approach to those made using the existing operational practice of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 21 catchments in eastern Australia. We investigate the reasons for differences. In general, the hybrid forecasting system produces forecasts that are more skilful than the existing operational practice and as reliable. The greatest increases in forecast skill tend to be (1) when the catchment is wetting up but antecedent streamflows have not responded to antecedent rainfall, (2) when the catchment is drying and the dominant source of antecedent streamflow is in transition between surface runoff and base flow, and (3) when the initial catchment condition is near saturation intermittently throughout the historical record.

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